Iterative estimating equations: Linear convergence and asymptotic properties

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size increases to infinity. Furthermore, we show that the limiting estimator is consistent and asymptotically efficient, as expected. The method applies to semiparametric regression models with unspecified covariances among the observations. In the special case of linear models, the procedure reduces to iterative reweighted least squares. Finite sample performance of the procedure is studied by simulations, and compared with other methods. A numerical example from a medical study is considered to illustrate the application of the method.

Working correlation structure misspecification, estimation and covariate design: Implications for generalised estimating equations performance

The method of generalised estimating equations for regression modelling of clustered outcomes allows for specification of a working matrix that is intended to approximate the true correlation matrix of the observations. We investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency of the generalised estimating equation for the mean parameters when the correlation parameters are estimated by various methods. The asymptotic relative efficiency depends on three-features of the analysis, namely (i) the discrepancy between the working correlation structure and the unobservable true correlation structure, (ii) the method by which the correlation parameters are estimated and (iii) the 'design', by which we refer to both the structures of the predictor matrices within clusters and distribution of cluster sizes. Analytical and numerical studies of realistic data-analysis scenarios show that choice of working covariance model has a substantial impact on regression estimator efficiency. Protection against avoidable loss of efficiency associated with covariance misspecification is obtained when a 'Gaussian estimation' pseudolikelihood procedure is used with an AR(1) structure.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Error bounds for calculation of the Gittins indices

For a wide class of semi-Markov decision processes the optimal policies are expressible in terms of the Gittins indices, which have been found useful in sequential clinical trials and pharmaceutical research planning. In general, the indices can be approximated via calibration based on dynamic programming of finite horizon. This paper provides some results on the accuracy of such approximations, and, in particular, gives the error bounds for some well known processes (Bernoulli reward processes, normal reward processes and exponential target processes).

The Learning Component of Dynamic Allocation Indices

For a multiarmed bandit problem with exponential discounting the optimal allocation rule is defined by a dynamic allocation index defined for each arm on its space. The index for an arm is equal to the expected immediate reward from the arm, with an upward adjustment reflecting any uncertainty about the prospects of obtaining rewards from the arm, and the possibilities of resolving those uncertainties by selecting that arm. Thus the learning component of the index is defined to be the difference between the index and the expected immediate reward. For two arms with the same expected immediate reward the learning component should be larger for the arm for which the reward rate is more uncertain. This is shown to be true for arms based on independent samples from a fixed distribution with an unknown parameter in the cases of Bernoulli and normal distributions, and similar results are obtained in other cases.

Risk assessment of wandering behavior in mild dementia

Objective This prospective longitudinal study aims to determine the risk factors of wandering-related adverse consequences in community-dwelling persons with mild dementia. These adverse consequences include negative outcomes of wandering (falls, fractures, and injuries) and eloping behavior. Methods We recruited 143 dyads of persons with mild dementia and their caregivers from a veteran's hospital and memory clinic in Florida. Wandering-related adverse consequences were measured using the Revised Algase Wandering Scale – Community Version. Variables such as personality (Big Five Inventory), behavioral response to stress, gait, and balance (Tinetti Gait and Balance), wayfinding ability (Wayfinding Effectiveness Scale), and neurocognitive abilities (attention, cognition, memory, language/verbal skills, and executive functioning) were also measured. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the predictors of these wandering-related adverse consequences. Results A total of 49% of the study participants had falls, fractures, and injuries due to wandering behavior, and 43.7% demonstrated eloping behaviors. Persistent walking (OR = 2.6) and poor gait (OR = 0.9) were significant predictors of negative outcomes of wandering, while persistent walking (OR = 13.2) and passivity (OR = 2.55) predicted eloping behavior. However, there were no correlations between wandering-related adverse consequences and participants' characteristics (age, gender, race, ethnicity, and education), health status (Charlson comorbidity index), or neurocognitive abilities. Conclusion Our results highlight the importance of identifying at-risk individuals so that effective interventions can be developed to reduce or prevent the adverse consequences of wandering.

Lost in space: The place of the architectural milieu in the aetiology and treatment of schizophrenia

Purpose – Psychological and epidemiological literature suggests that the built environment plays both causal and therapeutic roles in schizophrenia, but what are the implications for designers? The purpose of this paper is to focus on the role the built environment plays in psycho‐environmental dynamics, in order that negative effects can be avoided and beneficial effects emphasised in architectural design. Design/methodology/approach – The approach taken is a translational exploration of the dynamics between the built environment and psychotic illness, using primary research from disciplines as diverse as epidemiology, neurology and psychology. Findings – The built environment is conceived as being both an agonist and as an antagonist for the underlying processes that present as psychosis. The built environment is implicated through several means, through the opportunities it provides. These may be physical, narrative, emotional, hedonic or personal. Some opportunities may be negative, and others positive. The built environment is also an important source of unexpected aesthetic stimulation, yet in psychotic illnesses, aesthetic sensibilities characteristically suffer from deterioration. Research limitations/implications – The findings presented are based on research that is largely translated from very different fields of enquiry. Whilst findings are cogent and logical, much of the support is correlational rather than empirical. Social implications – The WHO claims that schizophrenia destroys 24 million lives worldwide, with an exponential effect on human and financial capital. Because evidence implicates the built environment, architectural and urban designers may have a role to play in reducing the human costs wrought by the illness. Originality/value – Never before has architecture been so explicitly implicated as a cause of mental illness. This paper was presented to the Symposium of Mental Health Facility Design, and is essential reading for anyone involved in designing for improved mental health.

Genetic relationship between five psychiatric disorders estimated from genome-wide SNPs

Most psychiatric disorders are moderately to highly heritable. The degree to which genetic variation is unique to individual disorders or shared across disorders is unclear. To examine shared genetic etiology, we use genome-wide genotype data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) for cases and controls in schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We apply univariate and bivariate methods for the estimation of genetic variation within and covariation between disorders. SNPs explained 17-29% of the variance in liability. The genetic correlation calculated using common SNPs was high between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (0.68 +/- 0.04 s.e.), moderate between schizophrenia and major depressive disorder (0.43 +/- 0.06 s.e.), bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder (0.47 +/- 0.06 s.e.), and ADHD and major depressive disorder (0.32 +/- 0.07 s.e.), low between schizophrenia and ASD (0.16 +/- 0.06 s.e.) and non-significant for other pairs of disorders as well as between psychiatric disorders and the negative control of Crohn's disease. This empirical evidence of shared genetic etiology for psychiatric disorders can inform nosology and encourages the investigation of common pathophysiologies for related disorders.

A genome wide linkage scan for dizygotic twinning in 525 families of mothers of dizygotic twins

BACKGROUND: The tendency to conceive dizygotic (DZ) twins is a complex trait influenced by genetic and environmental factors. To search for new candidate loci for twinning, we conducted a genome-wide linkage scan in 525 families using microsatellite and single nucleotide polymorphism marker panels. METHODS AND RESULTS: Non-parametric linkage analyses, including 523 families containing a total of 1115 mothers of DZ twins (MODZT) from Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) and The Netherlands (NL), produced four linkage peaks above the threshold for suggestive linkage, including a highly suggestive peak at the extreme telomeric end of chromosome 6 with an exponential logarithm of odds \[(exp)LOD] score of 2.813 (P = 0.0002). Since the DZ twinning rate increases steeply with maternal age independent of genetic effects, we also investigated linkage including only families where at least one MODZT gave birth to her first set of twins before the age of 30. These analyses produced a maximum expLOD score of 2.718 (P = 0.0002), largely due to linkage signal from the ANZ cohort, however, ordered subset analyses indicated this result is most likely a chance finding in the combined dataset. Linkage analyses were also performed for two large DZ twinning families from the USA, one of which produced a peak on chromosome 2 in the region of two potential candidate genes. Sequencing of FSHR and FIGLA, along with INHBB in MODZTs from two large NL families with family specific linkage peaks directly over this gene, revealed a potentially functional variant in the 5' untranslated region of FSHR that segregated with the DZ twinning phenotype in the Utah family. CONCLUSION: Our data provide further evidence for complex inheritance of familial DZ twinning.

Common genetic influences underlie comorbidity of migraine and endometriosis

We examined the co-occurrence of migraine and endometriosis within the largest known collection of families containing multiple women with surgically confirmed endometriosis and in an independent sample of 815 monozygotic and 457 dizygotic female twin pairs. Within the endometriosis families, a significantly increased risk of migrainous headache was observed in women with endometriosis compared to women without endometriosis (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-2.21, P=0.009). Bivariate heritability analyses indicated no evidence for common environmental factors influencing either migraine or endometriosis but significant genetic components for both traits, with heritability estimates of 69 and 49%, respectively. Importantly, a significant additive genetic correlation (r(G) = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.06-0.47) and bivariate heritability (h(2)=0.17, 95% CI: 0.08-0.27) was observed between migraine and endometriosis. Controlling for the personality trait neuroticism made little impact on this association. These results confirm the previously reported comorbidity between migraine and endometriosis and indicate common genetic influences completely explain their co-occurrence within individuals. Given pharmacological treatments for endometriosis typically target hormonal pathways and a number of findings provide support for a relationship between hormonal variations and migraine, hormone-related genes and pathways are highly plausible candidates for both migraine and endometriosis. Therefore, taking into account the status of both migraine and endometriosis may provide a novel opportunity to identify the genes underlying them. Finally, we propose that the analysis of such genetically correlated comorbid traits can increase power to detect genetic risk loci through the use of more specific, homogenous and heritable phenotypes.

Strong evidence for a novel schizophrenia risk locus on chromosome 1p31.1 in homogeneous pedigrees from Tamil Nadu, India

OBJECTIVE: The study of ethnically homogeneous populations may help to identify schizophrenia risk loci. The authors conducted a genomewide linkage scan for schizophrenia in an Indian population. METHOD: Participants were 441 individuals (262 affected probands and siblings) who were recruited primarily from one ethnically homogeneous group, the Tamil Brahmin caste, although individuals from other geographically proximal castes also participated. Genotyping of 124 affected sibling pair pedigrees was performed with 402 short tandem repeat polymorphisms. Linkage analyses were conducted using nonparametric exponential LOD (logarithm of the odds ratio for linkage) scores and parametric heterogeneity LOD scores. Parametric heterogeneity scores were calculated using simple dominant and recessive models, correcting for multiple statistics. The data were examined for evidence of consanguinity. Genomewide significance levels were determined using 10,000 gene dropping simulations. RESULTS: These findings revealed genomewide significant linkage to chromosome 1p31.1, through the use of both exponential and heterogeneity LOD scores, incorporating correction for multiple statistics and mild consanguinity. The estimated sibling recurrence risk associated with this putative locus was 1.95. Analysis for heterogeneity LOD scores also detected suggestive linkage to chromosomes 13q22.1 and 16q12.2. Using 117 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), family-based association analyses of phosphodiesterase 4B (PDE4B), the closest schizophrenia candidate gene, detected no convincing evidence of association, suggesting that the chromosome 1 peak represents a novel risk locus. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study-to the authors' knowledge-to report significant linkage of schizophrenia to chromosome 1p31.1. Further investigation of this chromosome region in diverse populations is warranted to identify underlying sequence variants.

Susceptibility locus on chromosome 1q23-25 for a schizophrenia subtype resembling deficit schizophrenia identified by latent class analysis

Context: Identifying susceptibility genes for schizophrenia may be complicated by phenotypic heterogeneity, with some evidence suggesting that phenotypic heterogeneity reflects genetic heterogeneity. Objective: To evaluate the heritability and conduct genetic linkage analyses of empirically derived, clinically homogeneous schizophrenia subtypes. Design: Latent class and linkage analysis. Setting: Taiwanese field research centers. Participants: The latent class analysis included 1236 Han Chinese individuals with DSM-IV schizophrenia. These individuals were members of a large affected-sibling-pair sample of schizophrenia (606 ascertained families), original linkage analyses of which detected a maximum logarithm of odds (LOD) of 1.8 (z = 2.88) on chromosome 10q22.3. Main Outcome Measures: Multipoint exponential LOD scores by latent class assignment and parametric heterogeneity LOD scores. Results: Latent class analyses identified 4 classes, with 2 demonstrating familial aggregation. The first (LC2) described a group with severe negative symptoms, disorganization, and pronounced functional impairment, resembling “deficit schizophrenia.” The second (LC3) described a group with minimal functional impairment, mild or absent negative symptoms, and low disorganization. Using the negative/deficit subtype, we detected genome-wide significant linkage to 1q23-25 (LOD = 3.78, empiric genome-wide P = .01). This region was not detected using the DSM-IV schizophrenia diagnosis, but has been strongly implicated in schizophrenia pathogenesis by previous linkage and association studies.Variants in the 1q region may specifically increase risk for a negative/deficit schizophrenia subtype. Alternatively, these results may reflect increased familiality/heritability of the negative class, the presence of multiple 1q schizophrenia risk genes, or a pleiotropic 1q risk locus or loci, with stronger genotype-phenotype correlation with negative/deficit symptoms. Using the second familial latent class, we identified nominally significant linkage to the original 10q peak region. Conclusion: Genetic analyses of heritable, homogeneous phenotypes may improve the power of linkage and association studies of schizophrenia and thus have relevance to the design and analysis of genome-wide association studies.

Consistently replicating locus linked to migraine on 10q22-q23

Here, we present the results of two genome-wide scans in two diverse populations in which a consistent use of recently introduced migraine-phenotyping methods detects and replicates a locus on 10q22-q23, with an additional independent replication. No genetic variants have been convincingly established in migraine, and although several loci have been reported, none of them has been consistently replicated. We employed the three known migraine-phenotyping methods (clinical end diagnosis, latent-class analysis, and trait-component analysis) with robust multiple testing correction in a large sample set of 1675 individuals from 210 migraine families from Finland and Australia. Genome-wide multipoint linkage analysis that used the Kong and Cox exponential model in Finns detected a locus on 10q22-q23 with highly significant evidence of linkage (LOD 7.68 at 103 cM in female-specific analysis). The Australian sample showed a LOD score of 3.50 at the same locus (100 cM), as did the independent Finnish replication study (LOD score 2.41, at 102 cM). In addition, four previously reported loci on 8q21, 14q21, 18q12, and Xp21 were also replicated. A shared-segment analysis of 10q22-q23 linked Finnish families identified a 1.6-9.5 cM segment, centered on 101 cM, which shows in-family homology in 95% of affected Finns. This region was further studied with 1323 SNPs. Although no significant association was observed, four regions warranting follow-up studies were identified. These results support the use of symptomology-based phenotyping in migraine and suggest that the 10q22-q23 locus probably contains one or more migraine susceptibility variants.

Validity of the OMNI rating of perceived exertion scale for children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

Aim This study evaluated the validity of the OMNI Walk/Run Rating of Perceived Exertion (OMNI-RPE) scores with heart rate and oxygen consumption (VO2) for children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP). Method Children and adolescents with CP, aged 6 to 18 years and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I to III completed a physical activity protocol with seven trials ranging in intensity from sedentary to moderate-to-vigorous. VO2 and heart rate were recorded during the physical activity trials using a portable indirect calorimeter and heart rate monitor. Participants reported OMNI-RPE scores for each trial. Concurrent validity was assessed by calculating the average within-subject correlation between OMNI-RPE ratings and the two physiological indices. Results For the correlational analyses, 48 participants (22 males, 26 females; age 12y 6mo, SD 3y 4mo) had valid bivariate data for VO2 and OMNI-RPE, while 40 participants (21 males, 19 females; age 12y 5mo, SD 2y 9mo) had valid bivariate data for heart rate and OMNI-RPE. VO2 (r=0.80; 95% CI 0.66–0.88) and heart rate (r=0.83; 95% CI 0.70–0.91) were moderately to highly correlated to OMNI-RPE scores. No difference was found for the correlation of physiological data and OMNI-RPE scores across the three GMFCS levels. The OMNI-RPE scores increased significantly in a dose-response manner (F6,258=116.1, p<0.001) as exercise intensity increased from sedentary to moderate-to-vigorous. Interpretation OMNI-RPE is a clinically feasible option to monitor exercise intensity in ambulatory children and adolescents with CP.

Synthesis and applications of carbon nanomaterials for energy generation and storage

The world is facing an energy crisis due to exponential population growth and limited availability of fossil fuels. Over the last 20 years, carbon, one of the most abundant materials found on earth, and its allotrope forms such as fullerenes, carbon nanotubes and graphene have been proposed as sources of energy generation and storage because of their extraordinary properties and ease of production. Various approaches for the synthesis and incorporation of carbon nanomaterials in organic photovoltaics and supercapacitors have been reviewed and discussed in this work, highlighting their benefits as compared to other materials commonly used in these devices. The use of fullerenes, carbon nanotubes and graphene in organic photovoltaics and supercapacitors is described in detail, explaining how their remarkable properties can enhance the efficiency of solar cells and energy storage in supercapacitors. Fullerenes, carbon nanotubes and graphene have all been included in solar cells with interesting results, although a number of problems are still to be overcome in order to achieve high efficiency and stability. However, the flexibility and the low cost of these materials provide the opportunity for many applications such as wearable and disposable electronics or mobile charging. The application of carbon nanotubes and graphene to supercapacitors is also discussed and reviewed in this work. Carbon nanotubes, in combination with graphene, can create a more porous film with extraordinary capacitive performance, paving the way to many practical applications from mobile phones to electric cars. In conclusion, we show that carbon nanomaterials, developed by inexpensive synthesis and process methods such as printing and roll-to-roll techniques, are ideal for the development of flexible devices for energy generation and storage – the key to the portable electronics of the future.