Lead the change series: Q & A with Allan Luke

An overview of current issues in school and system reform.

Fresh Cuttings: A Celebration of Fiction and Poetry from UQP's Black Writing Series

As the first anthology of UQP's indigenous-authored books, Fresh Cuttings represents the very best of fiction and poetry publishing from UQP's Black Australian Writing series. An introduction by the editors and a biography of each author is included.

Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

The structures of the isomorphous potassium and rubidium salts of 4-nitrobenzoic acid and an overview of the metal complex stereochemistries of the alkali metal salt series with this ligand

The structures of the isomorphous potassium and rubidium polymeric coordination complexes with 4-nitrobenzoic acid, poly[mu2-aqua-aqua-mu3-(4-nitrobenzoato)-potassium], [K(C7H4N2O2)(H2O)2]n, (I) and poly[mu3-aqua-aqua-mu5-(4-nitrobenzoato)-rubidium], [Rb(C7H4N2O2)(H2O)2]n, (II) have been determined. In (I) the very distorted KO6 coordination sphere about the K+ centres in the repeat unit comprise two bridging nitro O-atom donors, a single bridging carboxyl O-atom donor and two water molecules, one of which is bridging. In the the Rb complex (II), the same basic MO6 coordination is found in the repeat unit but is expanded to RbO9 through a slight increase in the accepted Rb-O bond length range and includes an additional Rb-O(carboxyl) bond, completing a bidentate O,O'-chelate interaction, and additional bridging Rb-Onitro) and Rb-O(water) bonds. The comparative K-O and Rb-O bond length ranges are 2.738(3)-3.002(3)Ang. (I) and 2.884(2)-3.182(2)Ang. (II). The structure of (II) is also isomorphous as well as isostructural with the known structure of the nine-coordinate caesium 4-nitrobenzoate analogue, [Cs(C7H4N2O~2~)(H~2~O)2]n, (III) in which the Cs---O range is 3.047(4)-3.338(4)Ang. In all three complexes, common basic polymeric extensions are found, including two different centrosymmetric bridging interactions through both water and nitro groups as well as extensions along c through the p-related carboxyl group, giving a two-dimensional structure in (I). In (II) and (III), three-dimensional structures are generated through additional bridges through the nitro and water O-atoms. In all structures, both water molecules are involved in similar intra-polymer O-H...O hydrogen-bonding interactions to both carboxyl as well as water O-atom acceptors. A comparison of the varied coordination behaviour of the full set of Li-Cs salts with 4-nitrobenzoic acid is also made.

Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empirical multifractal moment function K(q)K(q) of the daily rainfall time series can be fitted very well by the universal multifractal model (UMM). The estimated values of the conservation parameter HH from UMM for these daily rainfall data are close to zero indicating that they correspond to conserved fields. After removing the seasonal trend in the rainfall data, the estimated values of the exponent h(2)h(2) from MF-DFA indicate that the daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin exhibit no long-term correlations. It is also found that K(2)K(2) and elevation series are negatively correlated. It shows a relationship between topography and rainfall variability.

Genome-wide association study identifies eight loci associated with blood pressure

Elevated blood pressure is a common, heritable cause of cardiovascular disease worldwide. To date, identification of common genetic variants influencing blood pressure has proven challenging. We tested 2.5 million genotyped and imputed SNPs for association with systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 34,433 subjects of European ancestry from the Global BPgen consortium and followed up findings with direct genotyping (N 71,225 European ancestry, N 12,889 Indian Asian ancestry) and in silico comparison (CHARGE consortium, N = 29,136). We identified association between systolic or diastolic blood pressure and common variants in eight regions near the CYP17A1 (P = 7 × 10 24), CYP1A2 (P = 1 × 10 23), FGF5 (P = 1 × 10 21), SH2B3 (P = 3 × 10 18), MTHFR (P = 2 × 10 13), c10orf107 (P = 1 × 10 9), ZNF652 (P = 5 × 10 9) and PLCD3 (P = 1 × 10 8) genes. All variants associated with continuous blood pressure were associated with dichotomous hypertension. These associations between common variants and blood pressure and hypertension offer mechanistic insights into the regulation of blood pressure and may point to novel targets for interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Association between the interleukin 23 receptor and ankylosing spondylitis is confirmed by a new UK case-control study and meta-analysis of published series

Objectives. It has been shown previously that IL-23R variants are associated with AS. We conducted an extended analysis in the UK population and a meta-analysis with the previously published studies, in order to refine these IL-23R associations with AS. Methods. The UK case-control study included 730 new cases and 1331 healthy controls. In the extended study, the 730 cases were combined with 1088 published cases. Allelic associations were analysed using contingency tables. In the meta-analysis, 3482 cases and 3150 controls from four different published studies and the new UK cases were combined. DerSimonian-Laird test was used to calculate random effects pooled odds ratios (ORs). Results. In the UK case-control study with new cases, four of the eight SNPs showed significant associations, whereas in the extended UK study, seven of the eight IL-23R SNPs showed significant associations (P < 0.05) with AS, maximal with rs11209032 (P < 10-5, OR 1.3), when cases with IBD and/or psoriasis were excluded. The meta-analysis showed significant associations with all eight SNPs; the strongest associations were again seen not only with rs11209032 (P = 4.06 × 10-9, OR ∼1.2) but also with rs11209026 (P < 10-10, OR ∼0.6). Conclusions. IL-23R polymorphisms are clearly associated with AS, but the primary causal association(s) is(are) still not established. These polymorphisms could contribute either increased or decreased susceptibility to AS; functional studies will be required for their full evaluation. Additionally, observed stronger associations with SNPs rs11209026 and rs11465804 upon exclusion of IBD and/or psoriasis cases may represent an independent association with AS. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved.

Association scan of 14,500 nonsynonymous SNPs in four diseases identifies autoimmunity variants

We have genotyped 14,436 nonsynonymous SNPs (nsSNPs) and 897 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) tag SNPs from 1,000 independent cases of ankylosing spondylitis (AS), autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and breast cancer (BC). Comparing these data against a common control dataset derived from 1,500 randomly selected healthy British individuals, we report initial association and independent replication in a North American sample of two new loci related to ankylosing spondylitis, ARTS1 and IL23R, and confirmation of the previously reported association of AITD with TSHR and FCRL3. These findings, enabled in part by increased statistical power resulting from the expansion of the control reference group to include individuals from the other disease groups, highlight notable new possibilities for autoimmune regulation and suggest that IL23R may be a common susceptibility factor for the major 'seronegative' diseases.

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1–3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods—recursive partitioning and regression...

On the efficacy of Fourier series approximations for pricing European options

This paper investigates several competing procedures for computing the prices of vanilla European options, such as puts, calls and binaries, in which the underlying model has a characteristic function that is known in semi-closed form. The algorithms investigated here are the half-range Fourier cosine series, the half-range Fourier sine series and the full-range Fourier series. Their performance is assessed in simulation experiments in which an analytical solution is available and also for a simple affine model of stochastic volatility in which there is no closed-form solution. The results suggest that the half-range sine series approximation is the least effective of the three proposed algorithms. It is rather more difficult to distinguish between the performance of the halfrange cosine series and the full-range Fourier series. However there are two clear differences. First, when the interval over which the density is approximated is relatively large, the full-range Fourier series is at least as good as the half-range Fourier cosine series, and outperforms the latter in pricing out-of-the-money call options, in particular with maturities of three months or less. Second, the computational time required by the half-range Fourier cosine series is uniformly longer than that required by the full-range Fourier series for an interval of fixed length. Taken together,these two conclusions make a case for pricing options using a full-range range Fourier series as opposed to a half-range Fourier cosine series if a large number of options are to be priced in as short a time as possible.

Slow napalm

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. Slow Napalm, the first in series of short stories, works to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

The Joke

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. 'The Joke', the second in series of short stories, works to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

Experimental people

From Kurt Vonnegut to Stephen King, many novelists use metanarrative techniques to insert fictional versions of themselves in the stories they tell. The function of deploying such techniques is often to draw attention to the liminal space between the fictional constructs inherent in the novel as a form, and the real world from which the constructs draw inspiration, and indeed, are read by an audience. For emerging writers working in short form narratives, however, the structural demands of the short story or flash fiction make the use of similar techniques problematic in the level of depth to which they can be deployed. Experimental People, the third in series of short stories, works to overcome the structural limitations of a succinct form by developing a fractured fictional version of the author over a number of pieces and published across a range of sites. The accumulative affect is a richer metanarrative textual arrangement that also allows for the individual short stories to function independently.

Standardised antibacterial Manuka honey in the management of persistent post-operative corneal oedema: A case series

Background Corneal oedema is a common post-operative problem that delays or prevents visual recovery from ocular surgery. Honey is a supersaturated solution of sugars with an acidic pH, high osmolarity and low water content. These characteristics inhibit the growth of micro-organisms, reduce oedema and promote epithelialisation. This clinical case series describes the use of a regulatory approved Leptospermum species honey ophthalmic product, in the management of post-operative corneal oedema and bullous keratopathy. Methods A retrospective review of 18 consecutive cases (30 eyes) with corneal oedema persisting beyond one month after single or multiple ocular surgical procedures (phacoemulsification cataract surgery and additional procedures) treated with Optimel Antibacterial Manuka Eye Drops twice to three times daily as an adjunctive therapy to conventional topical management with corticosteroid, aqueous suppressants, hypertonic sodium chloride five per cent, eyelid hygiene and artificial tears. Visual acuity and central corneal thickness were measured before and at the conclusion of Optimel treatment. Results A temporary reduction in corneal epithelial oedema lasting up to several hours was observed after the initial Optimel instillation and was associated with a reduction in central corneal thickness, resolution of epithelial microcysts, collapse of epithelial bullae, improved corneal clarity, improved visualisation of the intraocular structures and improved visual acuity. Additionally, with chronic use, reduction in punctate epitheliopathy, reduction in central corneal thickness and improvement in visual acuity were achieved. Temporary stinging after Optimel instillation was experienced. No adverse infectious or inflammatory events occurred during treatment with Optimel. Conclusions Optimel was a safe and effective adjunctive therapeutic strategy in the management of persistent post-operative corneal oedema and warrants further investigation in clinical trials.

Linking spatial stock dynamics and economics: Evaluation of indicators and fishery management for the travelling eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

Reduced economic circumstances havemoved management goals towards higher profit, rather than maximum sustainable yields in several Australian fisheries. The eastern king prawn is one such fishery, for which we have developed new methodology for stock dynamics, calculation of model-based and data-based reference points and management strategy evaluation. The fishery is notable for the northward movement of prawns in eastern Australian waters, from the State jurisdiction of New South Wales to that of Queensland, as they grow to spawning size, so that vessels fishing in the northern deeper waters harvest more large prawns. Bioeconomic fishing data were standardized for calibrating a length-structured spatial operating model. Model simulations identified that reduced boat numbers and fishing effort could improve profitability while retaining viable fishing in each jurisdiction. Simulations also identified catch rate levels that were effective for monitoring in simple within-year effort-control rules. However, favourable performance of catch rate indicators was achieved only when a meaningful upper limit was placed on total allowed fishing effort. Themethods and findings will allow improved measures for monitoring fisheries and inform decision makers on the uncertainty and assumptions affecting economic indicators.