823 resultados para Accident risk forecasting.


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This paper seeks to address the widespread call in the literature for the cross-cultural examination ( and validation) of accepted concepts within consumer behaviour, such as consumer risk perceptions and information search. The findings of the study provide support for a number of accepted relationships, whilst identifying distinct cross cultural differences in external information search and willingness to buy genetically modified (GM) food products by consumers.

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Recently the National Patient Safety Agency in the United Kingdom published a report entitled "Mitigating surgical risk in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty for fractures of the proximal femur". A total of 26 deaths had been reported to them when cement was used at hemiarthroplasty between October 2003 and October 2008. This paper considers the evidence for using cement fixation of a hemiarthroplasty in the treatment of hip fractures.

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The purpose of this paper is to extend marketing knowledge into perceived risk in online transactions beyond the current positivistic, hypotheses-driven research by providing qualitative insights into how individuals construct their accounts of perceived risk online. Additionally, the study reported in this paper aims to explore how communication sources influence both these subjective constructions and individuals' behavioural experiences with transaction activity on the web. Design/methodology/approach - The study was developed within a grounded theory method.Ten in-depth interviews were conducted which were analysed using constant comparison of incidents procedures to provide rich descriptions of the interviewees' subjective perceptions and lived experiences with online transaction activity. Findings - The findings provide insights into how the human clement is present in individuals'perceptions and constructions of their accounts of the risk involved online.The findings also identify the influence of mass communication sources on the construction of these accounts. The study provides insights into whether change agent communication sources, such as marketers or web designers,influence consumers' behaviours towards online transaction activity through mediating their perceptions of the risks involved. The study also reveals how social communication networks influence the interviewees' decisions to use the web (or transaction activities, in particular online purchasing, and how the group in this study might act as a communication source to influence others. Research limitations/Implications - While the findings cannot be generalised to the internet population overall, the sample used was able to provide relevant information regarding the phenomenon of interest. Future research should continue to examine perceived risk and the influence of communications sources, such as e-mail, discussion groups and virtual communities. Originality/value - The value of the paper lies in permitting the participants to account for perceived risk for themselves. The findings ex.plore what this means at increasing levels of personal relevance and the influence of communication sources to create, sustain or mediate perceptions of this phenomenon.

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This chapter investigates the phenomenon of fashion from the perspective of ‘the look.’ This is achieved by the wearer (as opposed to the designer) and also forms the basis of fashion media, where it represents the ‘decisive moment’ of photography. The chapter argues that the evolving ‘look’ of fashion can be analysed to identify tensions between novelty and emulation, the unique and the universal, in contemporary consumer culture and status-based social-network markets. It explores the work of fashion photographer Corinne Day and artist Olga Tobreluts to identify the theme of ‘risk culture.’

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China has a reputation as an economy based on utility: the large-scale manufacture of low-priced goods. But useful values like functionality, fitness for purpose and efficiency are only part of the story. More important are what Veblen called ‘honorific’ values, arguably the driving force of development, change and value in any economy. To understand the Chinese economy therefore, it is not sufficient to point to its utilitarian aspect. Honorific status-competition is a more fundamental driver than utilitarian cost-competition. We argue that ‘social network markets’ are the expression of these honorific values, relationships and connections that structure and coordinate individual choices. This paper explores how such markets are developing in China in the area of fashion and fashion media. These, we argue, are an expression of ‘risk culture’ for high-end entrepreneurial consumers and producers alike, providing a stimulus to dynamic innovation in the arena of personal taste and comportment, as part of an international cultural system based on constant change. We examine the launch of Vogue China in 2005, and China’s reception as a fashion player among the international editions of Vogue, as an expression of a ‘decisive moment’ in the integration of China into an international social network market based on honorific values.

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This report presents the results of research projects conducted by The Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, RMIT University, Queensland Government Department of Main Roads and Queensland Department of Public Works. The research projects aimed at developing a methodology for assessing variation and risk in investment in road network, including the application of the method in assessing road network performance and maintenance and rehabilitation costs for short- and long-term future investment.

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Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

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An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

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Background First aid given immediately after a motor vehicle crash can have considerable benefits. Less understood however is first aid training as a prevention strategy for reducing risk-taking. A first step is to understand whether first aid skills are associated with risk-taking and injury experiences. Further, students and teachers who undergo or deliver such training offer important perspectives about implementation. Aims The research has two aims: (i) to identify whether first aid knowledge is associated with road risk-taking and injury and (ii) to examine teachers’ and students’ experiences of first aid activities within a school-based injury prevention and control program. Method Participants were 173 Year 9s (47% male) who completed a survey which included demographic information, first aid knowledge and risk-taking behaviour and injury experiences. Focus groups were held with 8 teachers who delivered, and 70 students who participated in, a school-based injury prevention and control program. Results Results showed a relationship between greater first aid knowledge and reduced engagement in risk-taking and injury experiences. Both students and teachers reported favourably on first aid however teachers also acknowledged challenges in delivering practical activities. Discussion & Conclusion It appears that first aid can be implemented within the school setting, particularly at the Year 9 level, and that both students and teachers involved in such training identify multiple benefits and positive experiences with first aid training. In addition, the findings suggest that first aid knowledge could be an important part of a prevention program.

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Typically adolescents' friends are considered a risk factor for adolescent engagement in risk-taking. This study took a more novel approach, by examining adolescent friendship as a protective factor. In particular it investigated friends' potential to intervene to reduce risk-taking. 540 adolescents (mean age 13.47 years) were asked about their intention to intervene to reduce friends' alcohol, drug and alcohol-related harms and about psychosocial factors potentially associated with intervening. More than half indicated that they would intervene in friends' alcohol, drug use, alcohol-related harms and interpersonal violence. Intervening was associated with being female, having friends engage in overall less risk-taking and having greater school connectedness. The findings provide an important understanding of increasing adolescent protective behavior as a potential strategy to reduce alcohol and drug related harms.

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In my work with secondary school students who have disengaged from mainstream classrooms, I have often been surprised at the ways they enthusiastically engage with the projects on offer. They have demonstrated that, in apparent contradiction of their classroom behaviour, they still maintain hope in achieving a positive outcome from education. In a long-running schools-university project employing a “students-as-researchers” approach to investigating educational disadvantage, “at-risk” students have produced high quality results. Naturally, I wanted to know what it was about this sort of pedagogy that seemed to work for them. In this chapter, then, I outline the project and discuss some reasons for disengagement. I then address the features of the project that the participants themselves have identified as being instrumental in their re-engagement with formal education. Finally, I consider how these features may be transposed to maintaining the educational engagement of at-risk students in mainstream classrooms.

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The Queensland Department of Public Works (DPW) holds a significant interest in the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) in controlling approximately 20 percent of the office space within its confines. This comprises a total of 333,903 square metres of space, of which 170,111 square metres is owned and 163,792 square metres is leased from the private sector. The department’s nominal ownership extends to several enduring, landmark buildings as well as several modern office towers. The portfolio includes the oldest building in the CBD, being the former Commissariat Stores building and one of the newest, a 15,000 square metre office tower under construction at 33 Charlotte Street.

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Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

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The over represented number of novice drivers involved in crashes is alarming. Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at mitigating the number of crashes that involve young drivers. To our knowledge, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have never been comprehensively used in designing an intelligent driver training system. Currently, there is a need to develop and evaluate ADAS that could assess driving competencies. The aim is to develop an unsupervised system called Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) that analyzes crash risks in a given driving situation. In order to design a comprehensive IDTS, data is collected from the Driver, Vehicle and Environment (DVE), synchronized and analyzed. The first implementation phase of this intelligent driver training system deals with synchronizing multiple variables acquired from DVE. RTMaps is used to collect and synchronize data like GPS, vehicle dynamics and driver head movement. After the data synchronization, maneuvers are segmented out as right turn, left turn and overtake. Each maneuver is composed of several individual tasks that are necessary to be performed in a sequential manner. This paper focuses on turn maneuvers. Some of the tasks required in the analysis of ‘turn’ maneuver are: detect the start and end of the turn, detect the indicator status change, check if the indicator was turned on within a safe distance and check the lane keeping during the turn maneuver. This paper proposes a fusion and analysis of heterogeneous data, mainly involved in driving, to determine the risk factor of particular maneuvers within the drive. It also explains the segmentation and risk analysis of the turn maneuver in a drive.

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Background: Ethnicity is rarely considered in injury prevention program development, even though this is known to impact on participation in injury risk behaviour. An understanding of injury, risk behaviour and risk and protective factors specific to adolescents of Pacific Islander descent will inform the development of prevention strategies appropriate to this group.----- Aims: To determine patterns of injury and associated risk behaviour among adolescents of Pacific Islander descent, and to understand the risk and protective factors that influence injury rates among this group.----- Methods: A total of 875 Year 9 students from five Queensland high schools completed a survey during health classes. Seventy-one students (n = 38 male) identified as Pacific Islander. The survey consisted of scales examining injury, risk taking behaviour, and relationships with family, school and police.----- Results: The leading causes of injury among adolescents of Pacific Islander descent were sports (48%) and transport (e.g. 45% reported bicycle injuries). Interpersonal violence related injuries were also relatively frequent, with 28% having been injured in a fight. Reports of alcohol use were relatively low (20% c.f. 40% of the remaining sample), however reports of other risk behaviours were relatively high (e.g. 43% c.f. 25% of remaining sample reported a group fight).----- Discussion and conclusions: Conclusions will be drawn regarding risk-related injuries reported by adolescents of Pacific Islander descent and those of other ethnic backgrounds. Additionally, risk and protective factors relating to family, school and police will be explored, in order to inform prevention strategies appropriate to this group.