Cold and heat waves in the United States

Extreme cold and heat waves, characterised by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people’s cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987–2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave’s timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the ninety-fifth to ninety-ninth percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for cold or hot temperatures.

Performance analysis of PTP components for IEC 61850 process bus applications

New substation automation applications, such as sampled value process buses and synchrophasors, require sampling accuracy of 1 µs or better. The Precision Time Protocol (PTP), IEEE Std 1588, achieves this level of performance and integrates well into Ethernet based substation networks. This paper takes a systematic approach to the performance evaluation of commercially available PTP devices (grandmaster, slave, transparent and boundary clocks) from a variety of manufacturers. The ``error budget'' is set by the performance requirements of each application. The ``expenditure'' of this error budget by each component is valuable information for a system designer. The component information is used to design a synchronization system that meets the overall functional requirements. The quantitative performance data presented shows that this testing is effective and informative. Results from testing PTP performance in the presence of sampled value process bus traffic demonstrate the benefit of a ``bottom up'' component testing approach combined with ``top down'' system verification tests. A test method that uses a precision Ethernet capture card, rather than dedicated PTP test sets, to determine the Correction Field Error of transparent clocks is presented. This test is particularly relevant for highly loaded Ethernet networks with stringent timing requirements. The methods presented can be used for development purposes by manufacturers, or by system integrators for acceptance testing. A sampled value process bus was used as the test application for the systematic approach described in this paper. The test approach was applied, components were selected, and the system performance verified to meet the application's requirements. Systematic testing, as presented in this paper, is applicable to a range of industries that use, rather than develop, PTP for time transfer.

A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

Studies on bending limitations for the optimal fit of orthopaedic bone plates

Distal tibial fractures are now commonly treated via intermedullary plate fixation due to higher rates of union and lower rates of postoperative complications. However, patient specific bone morphology demands manual deformation of the plate to ensure appropriate fit along the bone Distal tibial fractures are now commonly treated via intermedullary plate fixation due to higher rates of union and lower rates of postoperative complications. However, patient specific bone morphology demands manual deformation of the plate to ensure appropriate fit along the bone contours, and depending on the material of the plate, different outcomes have been reported along with postoperative complications. A comparative analysis of Stainless Steel 316L and Ti-6Al-4V alloys was carried to estimate the safe bending limit for appropriate fits. The results from the ANSYS FEA simulations were validated with experiments based on ASTM F382-99. It is found that SS316L is better suited for large deformations (up to 16˚ in proximal tip and 7.5˚ in distal end) and Ti for smaller deformation contours (up to 3˚ in proximal tip and 1.8˚ in distal end). The results of this study have profound implications for the choice of plates based on preliminary radiographical fracture examinations to ensure better fixation and higher rates of union of distal tibial fractures.

Vaccination to protect against infection of the female reproductive tract

Infection of the female genital tract can result in serious morbidities and mortalities from reproductive disability, pelvic inflammatory disease and cancer, to impacts on the fetus, such as infant blindness. While therapeutic agents are available, frequent testing and treatment is required to prevent the occurrence of the severe disease sequelae. Hence, sexually transmitted infections remain a major public health burden with ongoing social and economic barriers to prevention and treatment. Unfortunately, while there are two success stories in the development of vaccines to protect against HPV infection of the female reproductive tract, many serious infectious agents impacting on the female reproductive tract still have no vaccines available. Vaccination to prevent infection of the female reproductive tract is an inherently difficult target, with many impacting factors, such as appropriate vaccination strategies/mechanisms to induce a suitable protective response locally in the genital tract, variation in the local immune responses due to the hormonal cycle, selection of vaccine antigen(s) that confers effective protection against multiple variants of a single pathogen (e.g., the different serovars of Chlamydia trachomatis) and timing of the vaccine administration prior to infection exposure. Despite these difficulties, there are numerous ongoing efforts to develop effective vaccines against these infectious agents and it is likely that this important human health field will see further major developments in the next 5 years.

Advances and future directions for management of trauma patients with musculoskeletal injuries

Musculoskeletal injuries are the most common reason for operative procedures in severely injured patients and are major determinants of functional outcomes. In this paper, we summarise advances and future directions for management of multiply injured patients with major musculoskeletal trauma. Improved understanding of fracture healing has created new possibilities for management of particularly challenging problems, such as delayed union and non union of fractures and large bone defects. Optimum timing of major orthopaedic interventions is guided by increased knowledge about the immune response after injury. Individual treatment should be guided by trading off the benefits of early definitive skeletal stabilisation, and the potentially life-threatening risks of systemic complications such as fat embolism, acute lung injury, and multiple organ failure. New methods for measurement of fracture healing and function and quality of life outcomes pave the way for landmark trials that will guide the future management of musculoskeletal injuries.

Personalised electronic messages to improve sun protection in young adults

The incidence of all skin cancers, including melanoma, continues to rise. It is well known that ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the main environmental risk factor for skin cancer, and excessive exposure at a young age increases the risk of developing skin cancer. The aim of this study was to determine the acceptability and feasibility of delivering sun protection messages via electronic media such as short message services (SMS) to people 18-40 years, and explore factors associated with their acceptability. Overall, 80% of participants agreed that they would like to receive some form of sun protection advice; of these, 20% prefer to receive it via SMS and 42% via email. Willingness to receive electronic messages about the UV index was associated with being unsure about whether a suntanned person would look healthy and greater use of sun protection in the past. Careful attention to message framing and timing of message delivery and focus on short-term effects of sun exposure such as sunburn and skin ageing should increase the acceptability of such messages to young people. We conclude that sun protection messages delivered to young adults via electronic media appear feasible and acceptable.

A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Monocular myopic defocus and daily changes in axial length and choroidal thickness of human eyes

Recent research indicates that brief periods (60 minutes) of monocular defocus lead to small but significant changes in human axial length. However, the effects of longer periods of defocus on the axial length of human eyes are unknown. We examined the influence of a 12 hour period of monocular myopic defocus on the natural daily variations occurring in axial length and choroidal thickness of young adult emmetropes. A series of axial length and choroidal thickness measurements (collected at ~3 hourly intervals, with the first measurement at ~9 am and the final measurement at ~9 pm) were obtained for 13 emmetropic young adults over three consecutive days. The natural daily rhythms (Day 1, baseline day, no defocus), the daily rhythms with monocular myopic defocus (Day 2, defocus day, +1.50 DS spectacle lens over the right eye), and the recovery from any defocus induced changes (Day 3, recovery day, no defocus) were all examined. Significant variations over the course of the day were observed in both axial length and choroidal thickness on each of the three measurement days (p<0.0001). The magnitude and timing of the daily variations in axial length and choroidal thickness were significantly altered with the monocular myopic defocus on day 2 (p<0.0001). Following the introduction of monocular myopic defocus, the daily peak in axial length occurred approximately 6 hours later, and the peak in choroidal thickness approximately 8.5 hours earlier in the day compared to days 1 and 3 (with no defocus). The mean amplitude (peak to trough) of change in axial length (0.030 ± 0.012 on day 1, 0.020 ± 0.010 on day 2 and 0.033 ± 0.012 mm on day 3) and choroidal thickness (0.030 ± 0.007 on day 1, 0.022 ± 0.006 on day 2 and 0.027 ± 0.009 mm on day 3) were also significantly different between the three days (both p<0.05). The introduction of monocular myopic defocus disrupts the daily variations in axial length and choroidal thickness of human eyes (in terms of both amplitude and timing) that return to normal the following day after removal of the defocus.

Engaging Noemi Lakmeier's living installations : the ethics of embarrassment

In Exercise in Losing Control (2007) and We Are for You Because We are Against Them (2010), Austrian-born artist Noemi Lakmaier represents Otherness – and, in particular, the experience of Otherness as one of being vulnerable, dependent or visibly different from everyone else in a social situation – by placing first herself then a group of participants in big circular balls she calls ‘Weebles’. In doing so, Lakmaier depicts Otherness as an absurd, ambiguous or illegible element in otherwise everyday ‘living installations’ in which people meet, converse, dine and connect with spectators and passersby on the street. In this paper I analyse the way spectators and passersby respond to the weeble-wearers. Not surprisingly, responses vary – from people who hurry away, to people who try to talk to the weeble-wearer, to people who try to kick or tip the weeble to test its reality. The not-quite-normal situation, and the visibility of the spectators in the situation, asks spectators to rehearse their response to corporeal differences that might be encountered in day-to-day life. As the range of comments, confrontations and struggles show, the situation transfers the ill-at-ease, embarrassed and awkward aspects of dealing with corporeal difference from the disabled performer to the able spectator-become-performer. In this paper, I theorise some of the self-conscious spectatorial responses this sort of work can provoke in terms of an ethics of embarrassment. As the Latin roots of the word attest, embarrassment is born of a block, barrier or obstacle to move smoothly through a social or communicative encounter. In Lakmaier’s work, a range of potential blocks present themselves. The spectators’ responses – from ignoring the weeble, to querying the weeble, to asking visual, verbal or physical questions about how the weeble works, and so on – are ways of managing the interruption and moving forward. They are, I argue, strategies for moving from confusion to comprehension, or from what Emmanuel Levinas would call an encounter with the unknown to back into the horizon of the known, classified and classifiable. They flag the potential for what Levinas would call an ethical face-to-face encounter with the Other in which spectators and passersby may unexpectedly find themselves in a vulnerable position.

Akin Collection : curation of a collaboration between Indigenous artists and fashion designers to create a retail-ready luxury fashion label

The Akin collection is the outcome of a project to lead, guide and curate a luxury, retail-ready fashion collection from a collaboration between five emerging fashion designers and five established Indigenous artists. Research background There is a history of Indigenous artists in Australia being treated unethically; by misappropriation and misrepresentation of their work, inequity of payment for their creativity and little acknowledgement of their cultural contribution to collaborative fashion product sold globally. This has created an atmosphere of bad press for fashion, as well as a fear for emerging designers to include/collaborate with Indigenous artists for textile prints. This fear has been so intense that many emerging Australian designers are now seeking collaboration with other countries’ Indigenous communities, thus missing out on a rich cultural and diverse aesthetic that could brand a truly unique Australian label in the international marketplace. The fashion brands that have collaborated with Indigenous Australian artists have traditionally been a ONE designer label incorporating Indigenous prints, for collections that have little acknowledgement of the artist’s contribution and strong branding for the label and/or fashion designer. This collection seeks to create an equitable and profitable fashion collection under one brand where all artists and designers receive equal payment, equal promotion/credibility, as well as equal royalties for any garments ordered by retailers. Research question Is it possible to curate an ethical, luxury, retail-ready, international fashion brand with a collaboration of five (5) emerging designers and five (5) Indigenous artists? Research contribution In the fashion industry, existing collaborations for Australian Indigenous artists have been with ONE fashion designer or one existing fashion label. This is the first fashion collection created under one brand name with equal credibility and profits for both artists and designers. The process involved presenting workshops ranging from understanding the logistics and timing of the fashion supply chain, costing of garments, the process of ‘ranging’ fashion product for a collection and creating repeat prints from a specific artwork, ready for digital printing. A workshop was also facilitated so both designer and artist could work together to create (and co-own) unique t shirt prints. Lawyers were consulted and ethical contracts were drawn up to cover all participants in this innovative collaboration. While the collaboration of artist and designer was important, the collection required curation of all elements so that the final collection came together as a professional and cohesive, quality, retail- ready product. This could only be created by experienced practitioners. Research significance The Akin Collection is the first Australian fashion brand to be created as a collaboration between five equally recognised Indigenous artists and five emerging fashion designers. It has familiarized the Indigenous artists to the logistics and culture of the fashion industry and the emerging fashion designers have been familiarized to the logistics and culture of how to collaborate with the unique Indigenous artwork that exists in Australia. After only three months, this culminated in a fashion parade showcasing the Akin collection to over 400 members of the public, government, media and retail. Feedback has been strong from the media and the industry, and a lookbook and photoshoot has been organised to promote and sell the collection both nationally and internationally. These concepts plus the curation outlined, has created a successful, luxury, quality collection ready for the international runways. This project has devised an ethical template for other Indigenous artists and emerging designers to create fashion collections that offer a unique aesthetic that could position and brand Australian fashion in the international marketplace. Key Words Indigenous artists, emerging fashion designers, Australian fashion design, ethical fashion, luxury Australian brand

A distributed memory for networked livecoding performance

The symbolic and improvisational nature of Livecoding requires a shared networking framework to be flexible and extensible, while at the same time providing support for synchronisation, persistence and redundancy. Above all the framework should be robust and available across a range of platforms. This paper proposes tuple space as a suitable framework for network communication in ensemble livecoding contexts. The role of tuple space as a concurrency framework and the associated timing aspects of the tuple space model are explored through Spaces, an implementation of tuple space for the Impromptu environment.

Open design of high pressure ratio radial-inflow turbine for academic validation

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are widely used in mechanical engineering. Although achieving a high level of confidence in numerical modelling is of crucial importance in the field of turbomachinery, verification and validation of CFD simulations are very tricky especially for complex flows encountered in radial turbines. Comprehensive studies of radial machines are available in the literature. Unfortunately, none of them include enough detailed geometric data to be properly reproduced and so cannot be considered for academic research and validation purposes. As a consequence, design improvements of such configurations are difficult. Moreover, it seems that well-developed analyses of radial turbines are used in commercial software but are not available in the open literature especially at high pressure ratios. It is the purpose of this paper to provide a fully open set of data to reproduce the exact geometry of the high pressure ratio single stage radial-inflow turbine used in the Sundstrand Power Systems T-100 Multipurpose Small Power Unit. First, preliminary one-dimensional meanline design and analysis are performed using the commercial software RITAL from Concepts-NREC in order to establish a complete reference test case available for turbomachinery code validation. The proposed design of the existing turbine is then carefully and successfully checked against the geometrical and experimental data partially published in the literature. Then, three-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations are conducted by means of the Axcent-PushButton CFDR CFD software. The effect of the tip clearance gap is investigated in detail for a wide range of operating conditions. The results confirm that the 3D geometry is correctly reproduced. It also reveals that the turbine is shocked while designed to give a high-subsonic flow and highlight the importance of the diffuser.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer : predicting which patients may benefit most

Background: Recent clinical studies have demonstrated an emerging subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. This disease appears to be a distinct clinical entity with patients presenting younger and with more advanced nodal disease, having lower tobacco and alcohol exposure and highly radiosensitive tumours. This means they are living longer, often with the debilitating functional side effects of treatment. The primary objective of this study was to determine how virally mediated nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers respond to radiation therapy treatment. The aim was to determine risk categories and corresponding adaptive treatment management strategies to proactively manage these patients. Method/Results: 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancer who received radiotherapy treatment with curative intent between 2005 and 2010 were studied. Relevant patient demographics including age, gender, diagnosis, TNM stage, pre-treatment nodal size and dose delivered was recorded. Each patient’s treatment plan was reviewed to determine if another computed tomography (re-CT) scan was performed and at what time point (dose/fraction) this occurred. The justification for this re-CT was determined using four categories: tumour and/or nodal regression, weight loss, both or other. Patients who underwent a re-CT were further investigated to determine whether a new plan was calculated. If a re-plan was performed, the dosimetric effect was quantified by comparing dose volume histograms of planning target volumes and critical structures from the actual treatment delivered and the original treatment plan. Preliminary results demonstrated that 25/121 (20.7%) patients required a re-CT and that these re-CTs were performed between fractions 20 to 25 of treatment. The justification for these re-CTs consisted of a combination of tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss. 16/25 (13.2%) patients had a replan calculated. 9 (7.4%) of these replans were implemented clinically due to the resultant dosimetric effect calculated. The data collected from this assessment was statistically analysed to identify the major determining factors for patients to undergo a re-CT and/or replan. Specific factors identified included nodal size and timing of the required intervention (i.e. how when a plan is to be adapted). This data was used to generate specific risk profiles that will form the basis of a biologically guided adaptive treatment management strategy for virally mediated head and neck cancer. Conclusion: Preliminary data indicates that virally mediated head and neck cancers respond significantly during radiation treatment (tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss). Implications of this response are the potential underdosing or overdosing of tumour and/or surrounding critical structures. This could lead to sub-optimal patient outcomes and compromised quality of life. Consequently, the development of adaptive treatment strategies that improve organ sparing for this patient group is important to ensure delivery of the prescribed dose to the tumour volume whilst minimizing the dose received to surrounding critical structures. This could reduce side effects and improve overall patient quality of life. The risk profiles and associated adaptive treatment approaches developed in this study will be tested prospectively in the clinical setting in Phase 2 of this investigation.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Introduction: Clinical investigation has revealed a subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. The relationship between nasopharyngeal cancer and Epstein Barr Virus (EBV) has long been established and more recently, the association between oropharyngeal cancer and Human Papillomavirus (HPV) has been revealed1,2 These cancers often present with nodal involvement and generally respond well to radiation treatment, evidenced by tumour regression1. This results in the need for treatment plan adaptation or re-planning in a subset of patients. Adaptive techniques allow the target region of the radiotherapy treatment plan to be altered in accordance with treatment-induced changes to ensure that under or over dosing does not occur3. It also assists in limiting potential overdosing of surrounding critical normal tissues4. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive radiotherapy trial. Method: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent radiotherapy treatment were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node at diagnosis with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories to determine the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into risk categories; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Conclusion: In this series, patients with virally mediated head and neck cancer and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of curative radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive radiotherapy study. ‘Real World’ Implications: This research identifies predictive factors for those patients with virally mediated head and neck cancer that will benefit most from treatment adaptation. This will assist in minimising the side effects experienced by these patients thereby improving their quality of life after treatment.