Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Modelling resilience in a water supply system : contrasting conditions of drought and flood

This paper presents an approach to modelling the resilience of a generic (potable) water supply system. The system is contextualized as a meta-system consisting of three subsystems to represent the natural catchment, the water treatment plant and the water distribution infrastructure for urban use. An abstract mathematical model of the meta-system is disaggregated progressively to form a cascade of equations forming a relational matrix of models. This allows the investigation of commonly implicit relationships between various operational components within the meta system, the in-depth understanding of specific system components and influential factors and the incorporation of explicit disturbances to explore system behaviour. Consequently, this will facilitate long-term decision making to achieve sustainable solutions for issues such as, meeting a growing demand or managing supply-side influences in the meta-system under diverse water availability regimes. This approach is based on the hypothesis that the means to achieve resilient supply of water may be better managed by modelling the effects of changes at specific levels that have a direct or in some cases indirect impact on higher-order outcomes. Additionally, the proposed strategy allows the definition of approaches to combine disparate data sets to synthesise previously missing or incomplete higher-order information, a scientifically robust means to define and carry out meta-analyses using knowledge from diverse yet relatable disciplines relevant to different levels of the system and for enhancing the understanding of dependencies and inter-dependencies of variable factors at various levels across the meta-system. The proposed concept introduces an approach for modelling a complex infrastructure system as a meta system which consists of a combination of bio-ecological, technical and socio-technical subsystems.

A penalty-based grouping genetic algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud

Software as a Service (SaaS) in Cloud is getting more and more significant among software users and providers recently. A SaaS that is delivered as composite application has many benefits including reduced delivery costs, flexible offers of the SaaS functions and decreased subscription cost for users. However, this approach has introduced a new problem in managing the resources allocated to the composite SaaS. The resource allocation that has been done at the initial stage may be overloaded or wasted due to the dynamic environment of a Cloud. A typical data center resource management usually triggers a placement reconfiguration for the SaaS in order to maintain its performance as well as to minimize the resource used. Existing approaches for this problem often ignore the underlying dependencies between SaaS components. In addition, the reconfiguration also has to comply with SaaS constraints in terms of its resource requirements, placement requirement as well as its SLA. To tackle the problem, this paper proposes a penalty-based Grouping Genetic Algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud. The main objective is to minimize the resource used by the SaaS by clustering its component without violating any constraint. Experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and the scalability of the proposed algorithm.

A business model for an inclusive entrepreneurial development

In 2004 Prahalad made managers aware of the great economic opportunity that the population at the BoP (Base of the Pyramid) represents for business in the form of new potential consumers. However, MNCs (Multi-National Corporations) generally continue to penetrate low income markets with the same strategies used at the top of the pyramid or choose not to invest at all in these regions because intimidated by having to re-envision their business models. The introduction of not re-arranged business models and products into developing countries has done nothing more over the years than induce new needs and develop new dependencies. By conducting a critical review of the literature this paper investigates and compares innovative approaches to operate in developing markets, which depart from the usual Corporate Social Responsibility marketing rhetoric, and rather consider the potential consumer at the BoP as a ring of continuity in the value chain − a resource that can itself produce value. Based on the concept of social embeddedness (London & Hart, 2004) and the principle that an open system contemplates different provisions (i.e. MNCs bring processes and technology, NGOs cultural mediating skills, governments laws and regulations, native people know-how and traditions), this paper concludes with a new business model reference that empowers all actors to contribute to value creation, while allowing MNCs to support local growth by turning what Prahalad called ‘inclusive capitalism’ into a more sustainable ‘inclusive entrepreneurial development’.

Automatic Audio Segmentation Using the Generalized Likelihood Ratio

This paper presents a novel technique for segmenting an audio stream into homogeneous regions according to speaker identities, background noise, music, environmental and channel conditions. Audio segmentation is useful in audio diarization systems, which aim to annotate an input audio stream with information that attributes temporal regions of the audio into their specific sources. The segmentation method introduced in this paper is performed using the Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR), computed between two adjacent sliding windows over preprocessed speech. This approach is inspired by the popular segmentation method proposed by the pioneering work of Chen and Gopalakrishnan, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) with an expanding search window. This paper will aim to identify and address the shortcomings associated with such an approach. The result obtained by the proposed segmentation strategy is evaluated on the 2002 Rich Transcription (RT-02) Evaluation dataset, and a miss rate of 19.47% and a false alarm rate of 16.94% is achieved at the optimal threshold.

Graph-based concept weighting for medical information retrieval

This paper presents a graph-based method to weight medical concepts in documents for the purposes of information retrieval. Medical concepts are extracted from free-text documents using a state-of-the-art technique that maps n-grams to concepts from the SNOMED CT medical ontology. In our graph-based concept representation, concepts are vertices in a graph built from a document, edges represent associations between concepts. This representation naturally captures dependencies between concepts, an important requirement for interpreting medical text, and a feature lacking in bag-of-words representations. We apply existing graph-based term weighting methods to weight medical concepts. Using concepts rather than terms addresses vocabulary mismatch as well as encapsulates terms belonging to a single medical entity into a single concept. In addition, we further extend previous graph-based approaches by injecting domain knowledge that estimates the importance of a concept within the global medical domain. Retrieval experiments on the TREC Medical Records collection show our method outperforms both term and concept baselines. More generally, this work provides a means of integrating background knowledge contained in medical ontologies into data-driven information retrieval approaches.

Modeling and detection of complex attacks

A complex attack is a sequence of temporally and spatially separated legal and illegal actions each of which can be detected by various IDS but as a whole they constitute a powerful attack. IDS fall short of detecting and modeling complex attacks therefore new methods are required. This paper presents a formal methodology for modeling and detection of complex attacks in three phases: (1) we extend basic attack tree (AT) approach to capture temporal dependencies between components and expiration of an attack, (2) using enhanced AT we build a tree automaton which accepts a sequence of actions from input message streams from various sources if there is a traversal of an AT from leaves to root, and (3) we show how to construct an enhanced parallel automaton that has each tree automaton as a subroutine. We use simulation to test our methods, and provide a case study of representing attacks in WLANs.

National architecture conference 2012

May was a particularly busy month with lots of exciting architectural things happening in Brisbane, including the sell-out 2012 National Architecture Conference. The total number of conference attendees was 1,625, which was the largest number of attendees to any Australian National Architecture Conference to date. This was the first time that the National Architecture Conference had been held in Brisbane in over 20 years, and the enormous turnout of 947 Queenslanders to the conference was testament to the positive decision to include Brisbane as a conference venue. The theme of this year’s conference was ‘experience’. Building on ideas introduced in the recent ‘natural artifice’ conference, creative directors Shane Thompson, Michael Rayner and Peter Skinner focused closely on the real, sensed experience of architecture within its natural and constructed settings and the experience of designing and making architecture. The conference attracted a variety of high profile international speakers, including architect and professor, Wang Shu, the 2012 Pritzker Architecture Prize Laureate and co-founder of the Amateur Architecture Studio in China. Other highlights included presentations from Peter Rich [South Africa], Kathryn Findlay [United Kingdom], Rachel Neeson [Australia], Anuradha Mathur & Dilip da Cunha [United States] and Kjetil Thorsen [Norway]. QUT had a strong presence at the conference. In addition to pleasing attendance rates from QUT School of Design students and staff, our Head-of-School Professor Paul Sanders, was given the honourable task of introducing keynote speaker Peter Rich, and facilitating the Q&A session after his presentation, which received a standing ovation. There were many events organised for students and young architects by QUT’s SONA reps, including a masterclass, opening party, collaborative design and construction of the SONA Pavilion, and finally, organisation of the all important SONA Hangover Breakfast, the morning after the closing party. The 2012 National Architecture Conference was truly memorable and an experience not to have been missed. I encourage anyone with a passion for architecture and a desire to be completely inspired by current and emerging leaders in our exciting profession, to start making plans to attend next year’s conference.

A formal method for attack modelling and detection

This paper presents a formal methodology for attack modeling and detection for networks. Our approach has three phases. First, we extend the basic attack tree approach 1 to capture (i) the temporal dependencies between components, and (ii) the expiration of an attack. Second, using the enhanced attack trees (EAT) we build a tree automaton that accepts a sequence of actions from input stream if there is a traverse of an attack tree from leaves to the root node. Finally, we show how to construct an enhanced parallel automaton (EPA) that has each tree automaton as a subroutine and can process the input stream by considering multiple trees simultaneously. As a case study, we show how to represent the attacks in IEEE 802.11 and construct an EPA for it.

Analysis of higher-order aberrations in a large clinical population

Purpose: To use a large wavefront database of a clinical population to investigate relationships between refractions and higher order aberrations and between aberrations of right and left eyes. Methods: Third and fourth-order aberration coefficients and higher-order root-mean-squared aberrations (HO RMS), scaled to a pupil size of 4.5 mm diameter, were analysed in a population of about 24,000 patients from Carl Zeiss Vision's European wavefront database. Correlations were determined between the aberrations and the variables of refraction, near addition and cylinder. Results: Most aberration coefficients were significantly dependent upon these variables, but the proportions of aberrations that could be explained by these factors were less than 2% except for spherical aberration (12%), horizontal coma (9%) and HO RMS (7%). Near addition was the major contributor for horizontal coma (8.5% out of 9.5%) and spherical equivalent was the major contributor for spherical aberration (7.7% out of 11.6%). Interocular correlations were highly significant for all aberration coefficients, varying between 0.16 and 0.81. Anisometropia was a variable of significance for three aberrations (vertical coma, secondary astigmatism and tetrafoil), but little importance can be placed on this because of the small proportions of aberrations that can be explained by refraction (all less than 1.0 %). Conclusions: Most third- and fourth-order aberration coefficients were significantly dependent upon spherical equivalent, near addition and cylinder, but only horizontal coma (9%) and spherical aberration (12%) showed dependencies of greater than 2%. Interocular correlations were highly significant for all aberration coefficients, but anisometropia had little influence on aberration coefficients.

Configuring processes and business documents : an integrated approach to enterprise systems collaboration

Enterprise Systems (ES) provide standardized, off-theshelf support for operations and management within organizations. With the advent of ES based on a serviceoriented architecture (SOA) and an increasing demand of IT-supported interorganizational collaboration, implementation projects face paradigmatically new challenges. The configuration of ES is costly and error-prone. Dependencies between business processes and business documents are hardly explicit and foster component proliferation instead of reuse. Configurative modeling can support the problem in two ways: First, conceptual modeling abstracts from technical details and provides more intuitive access and overview. Second, configuration allows the projection of variants from master models providing manageable variants with controlled flexibility. We aim at tackling the problem by proposing an integrated model-based framework for configuring both, processes and business documents, on an equal basis; as together, they constitute the core business components of an ES.

Introduction to the special issue

Creative productivity emerges from human interactions (Hartley, 2009, p. 214). In an era when life is lived in rather than with media (Deuze, this issue), this productivity is widely distributed among ephemeral social networks mediated through the internet. Understanding the underlying dynamics of these networks of human interaction is an exciting and challenging task that requires us to come up with new ways of thinking and theorizing. For example, inducting theory from case studies that are designed to show the exceptional dynamics present within single settings can be augmented today by largescale data generation and collections that provide new analytic opportunities to research the diversity and complexity of human interaction. Large-scale data generation and collection is occurring across a wide range of individuals and organisations. This offers a massive field of analysis which internet companies and research labs in particular are keen on exploring. Lazer et al (2009: 721) argue that such analytic potential is transformational for many if not most research fields but that the use of such valuable data must neither remain confined to private companies and government agencies nor to a privileged set of academic researchers whose studies cannot be replicated nor critiqued. In fact, the analytic capacity to have data of such unprecedented scope and scale available not only requires us to analyse what is and could be done with it and by whom (1) but also what it is doing to us, our cultures and societies (2). Part (1) of such analysis is interested in dependencies and their implications. Part (2) of the enquiry embeds part (1) in a larger context that analyses the long-term, complex dynamics of networked human interaction. From the latter perspective we can treat specific phenomena and the methods used to analyse them as moments of evolution.

Using a Bayesian network to model colonisation with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE)

Objective: Effective management of multi-resistant organisms is an important issue for hospitals both in Australia and overseas. This study investigates the utility of using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to examine relationships between risk factors and colonization with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Design: Bayesian Network Analysis was performed using infection control data collected over a period of 36 months (2008-2010). Setting: Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Brisbane. Outcome of interest: Number of new VRE Isolates Methods: A BN is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). BN enables multiple interacting agents to be studied simultaneously. The initial BN model was constructed based on the infectious disease physician‟s expert knowledge and current literature. Continuous variables were dichotomised by using third quartile values of year 2008 data. BN was used to examine the probabilistic relationships between VRE isolates and risk factors; and to establish which factors were associated with an increased probability of a high number of VRE isolates. Software: Netica (version 4.16). Results: Preliminary analysis revealed that VRE transmission and VRE prevalence were the most influential factors in predicting a high number of VRE isolates. Interestingly, several factors (hand hygiene and cleaning) known through literature to be associated with VRE prevalence, did not appear to be as influential as expected in this BN model. Conclusions: This preliminary work has shown that Bayesian Network Analysis is a useful tool in examining clinical infection prevention issues, where there is often a web of factors that influence outcomes. This BN model can be restructured easily enabling various combinations of agents to be studied.

Automatic query expansion : a structural linguistic perspective

A user’s query is considered to be an imprecise description of their information need. Automatic query expansion is the process of reformulating the original query with the goal of improving retrieval effectiveness. Many successful query expansion techniques ignore information about the dependencies that exist between words in natural language. However, more recent approaches have demonstrated that by explicitly modeling associations between terms significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness can be achieved over those that ignore these dependencies. State-of-the-art dependency-based approaches have been shown to primarily model syntagmatic associations. Syntagmatic associations infer a likelihood that two terms co-occur more often than by chance. However, structural linguistics relies on both syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations to deduce the meaning of a word. Given the success of dependency-based approaches and the reliance on word meanings in the query formulation process, we argue that modeling both syntagmatic and paradigmatic information in the query expansion process will improve retrieval effectiveness. This article develops and evaluates a new query expansion technique that is based on a formal, corpus-based model of word meaning that models syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations. We demonstrate that when sufficient statistical information exists, as in the case of longer queries, including paradigmatic information alone provides significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness across a wide variety of data sets. More generally, when our new query expansion approach is applied to large-scale web retrieval it demonstrates significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness over a strong baseline system, based on a commercial search engine.

Term associations in query expansion : a structural linguistic perspective

Many successful query expansion techniques ignore information about the term dependencies that exist within natural language. However, researchers have recently demonstrated that consistent and significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness can be achieved by explicitly modelling term dependencies within the query expansion process. This has created an increased interest in dependency-based models. State-of-the-art dependency-based approaches primarily model term associations known within structural linguistics as syntagmatic associations, which are formed when terms co-occur together more often than by chance. However, structural linguistics proposes that the meaning of a word is also dependent on its paradigmatic associations, which are formed between words that can substitute for each other without effecting the acceptability of a sentence. Given the reliance on word meanings when a user formulates their query, our approach takes the novel step of modelling both syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations within the query expansion process based on the (pseudo) relevant documents returned in web search. The results demonstrate that this approach can provide significant improvements in web re- trieval effectiveness when compared to a strong benchmark retrieval system.