Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

Simulation of inplane and out of plane AE source in thin plate

In most materials, short stress waves are generated during the process of plastic deformation, phase transformation, crack formation and crack growth. These phenomena are applied in acoustic emission (AE) for the detection of material defects in a wide spectrum of areas, ranging from nondestructive testing for the detection of materials defects to monitoring of microseismical activity. AE technique is also used for defect source identification and for failure detection. AE waves consist of P waves (primary longitudinal waves), S waves (shear/transverse waves) and Rayleigh (surface) waves as well as reflected and diffracted waves. The propagation of AE waves in various modes has made the determination of source location difficult. In order to use acoustic emission technique for accurate identification of source, an understanding of wave propagation of the AE signals at various locations in a plate structure is essential. Furthermore, an understanding of wave propagation can also assist in sensor location for optimum detection of AE signals along with the characteristics of the source. In real life, as the AE signals radiate from the source it will result in stress waves. Unless the type of stress wave is known, it is very difficult to locate the source when using the classical propagation velocity equations. This paper describes the simulation of AE waves to identify the source location and its characteristics in steel plate as well as the wave modes. The finite element analysis (FEA) is used for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in thin plate. By knowing the type of wave generated, it is possible to apply the appropriate wave equations to determine the location of the source. For a single plate structure, the results show that the simulation algorithm is effective to simulate different stress waves.

Testing and simulation of extruded polystyrene foam at low to moderate strain rates

This paper presents a study into the behaviour of extruded polystyrene foam at low strain rates. The foam is being studied in order assess its potential for use as part of a new innovative design of portable road safety barrier the aim to consume less water and reduce rates of serious injury. The foam was tested at a range of low strain rates, with the stress and strain behaviour of the foam specimens being recorded. The energy absorption capabilities of the foam were assessed as well as the response of the foam to multiple loadings. The experimental data was then used to create a material model of the foam for use in the explicit finite element solver LS-DYNA. Simulations were carried out using the material model which showed excellent correlation between the numerical material model and the experimental data.

Including airport duty-free shopping in arriving passenger simulation and the opportunities this presents

Simulating passenger flows within airports is very important as it can provide an indication of queue lengths, bottlenecks, system capacity and overall level of service. To date, visual simulation tools such as agent based models have focused on processing formalities such as check-in, and not incorporate discretionary activities such as duty-free shopping. As airport retail contributes greatly to airport revenue generation, but also has potentially detrimental effects on facilitation efficiency benchmarks, this study developed a simplistic simulation model which captures common duty-free purchasing opportunities, as well as high-level behaviours of passengers. It is argued that such a model enables more realistic simulation of passenger facilitation, and provides a platform for simulating real-time revenue generation as well as more complex passenger behaviours within the airport. Simulations are conducted to verify the suitability of the model for inclusion in the international arrivals process for assessing passenger flow and infrastructure utilization.

Numerical simulation for the variable-order Galilei invariant advection diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term

In this paper, we consider the variable-order Galilei advection diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term. A numerical scheme with first order temporal accuracy and second order spatial accuracy is developed to simulate the equation. The stability and convergence of the numerical scheme are analyzed. Besides, another numerical scheme for improving temporal accuracy is also developed. Finally, some numerical examples are given and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis. Keywords: The variable-order Galilei invariant advection diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term; The variable-order Riemann–Liouville fractional partial derivative; Stability; Convergence; Numerical scheme improving temporal accuracy