Volatility timing : how best to forecast portfolio exposures

This paper investigates how best to forecast optimal portfolio weights in the context of a volatility timing strategy. It measures the economic value of a number of methods for forming optimal portfolios on the basis of realized volatility. These include the traditional econometric approach of forming portfolios from forecasts of the covariance matrix, and a novel method, where a time series of optimal portfolio weights are constructed from observed realized volatility and directly forecast. The approach proposed here of directly forecasting portfolio weights shows a great deal of merit. Resulting portfolios are of equivalent economic benefit to a number of competing approaches and are more stable across time. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility timing is undertaken in a portfolio allocation context.

The journey of the role of religious faith in corrections : the case of circles of support and accountability

A renewal of interest has occurred in the relationship between religion, penal policy, and systems of criminal justice in different countries. This has been manifested in the development of religious programmes in prison and community settings. The subject has also precipitated a substantial body of empirical research, in addition to theorising the impacts of religion upon offending behaviour. However, specific faith‐based measures have attracted limited attention, mainly because of the empirical complexity of measuring the relationship between faith and behavioural change. These issues are addressed in this article by considering the recentlyemerged practice of Circles of Support and Accountability (COSA).

The use of acoustic indices to determine avian species richness in audio-recordings of the environment

Interpreting acoustic recordings of the natural environment is an increasingly important technique for ecologists wishing to monitor terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances make it possible to accumulate many more recordings than can be listened to or interpreted, thereby necessitating automated assistance to identify elements in the soundscape. In this paper we examine the problem of estimating avian species richness by sampling from very long acoustic recordings. We work with data recorded under natural conditions and with all the attendant problems of undefined and unconstrained acoustic content (such as wind, rain, traffic, etc.) which can mask content of interest (in our case, bird calls). We describe 14 acoustic indices calculated at one minute resolution for the duration of a 24 hour recording. An acoustic index is a statistic that summarizes some aspect of the structure and distribution of acoustic energy and information in a recording. Some of the indices we calculate are standard (e.g. signal-to-noise ratio), some have been reported useful for the detection of bioacoustic activity (e.g. temporal and spectral entropies) and some are directed to avian sources (spectral persistence of whistles). We rank the one minute segments of a 24 hour recording in descending order according to an "acoustic richness" score which is derived from a single index or a weighted combination of two or more. We describe combinations of indices which lead to more efficient estimates of species richness than random sampling from the same recording, where efficiency is defined as total species identified for given listening effort. Using random sampling, we achieve a 53% increase in species recognized over traditional field surveys and an increase of 87% using combinations of indices to direct the sampling. We also demonstrate how combinations of the same indices can be used to detect long duration acoustic events (such as heavy rain and cicada chorus) and to construct long duration (24 h) spectrograms.

Text messaging to support off-campus clinical nursing facilitators : a descriptive survey

Background Managing large student cohorts can be a challenge for university academics, coordinating these units. Bachelor of Nursing programmes have the added challenge of managing multiple groups of students and clinical facilitators whilst completing clinical placement. Clear, time efficient and effective communication between coordinating academics and clinical facilitators is needed to ensure consistency between student and teaching groups and prompt management of emerging issues. Methods This study used a descriptive survey to explore the use of text messaging via a mobile phone, sent from coordinating academics to off-campus clinical facilitators, as an approach to providing direction and support. Results The response rate was 47.8% (n = 22). Correlations were found between the approachability of the coordinating academic and clinical facilitator perception that, a) the coordinating academic understood issues on clinical placement (r = 0.785, p < 0.001), and b) being part of the teaching team (r = 0.768, p < 0.001). Analysis of responses to qualitative questions revealed three themes: connection, approachability and collaboration. Conclusions This study demonstrates that use of regular text messages improves communication between coordinating academics and clinical facilitators. Findings suggest improved connection, approachability and collaboration between the coordinating academic and clinical facilitation staff.

How to guarantee compliance between workflows and product lifecycles?

Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) systems are widely used in the manufacturing industry. A core feature of such systems is to provide support for versioning of product data. As workflow functionality is increasingly used in PLM systems, the possibility emerges that the versioning transitions for product objects as encapsulated in process models do not comply with the valid version control policies mandated in the objects’ actual lifecycles. In this paper we propose a solution to tackle the (non-)compliance issues between processes and object version control policies. We formally define the notion of compliance between these two artifacts in product lifecycle management and then develop a compliance checking method which employs a well-established workflow analysis technique. This forms the basis of a tool which offers automated support to the proposed approach. By applying the approach to a collection of real-life specifications in a main PLM system, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our solution to the field.

Reported consumption of takeaway food and its contribution to socioeconomic inequalities in body mass index

The aim of this study was to examine whether takeaway food consumption mediated (explained) the association between socioeconomic position and body mass index (BMI). A postal-survey was conducted among 1500 randomly selected adults aged between 25 and 64 years in Brisbane, Australia during 2009 (response rate 63.7%, N=903). BMI was calculated using self-reported weight and height. Participants reported usual takeaway food consumption, and these takeaway items were categorised into "healthy" and "less healthy" choices. Socioeconomic position was ascertained by education, household income, and occupation. The mean BMI was 27.1kg/m(2) for men and 25.7kg/m(2) for women. Among men, none of the socioeconomic measures were associated with BMI. In contrast, women with diploma/vocational education (β=2.12) and high school only (β=2.60), and those who were white-collar (β=1.55) and blue-collar employees (β=2.83) had significantly greater BMI compared with their more advantaged counterparts. However, household income was not associated with BMI. Among women, the consumption of "less healthy" takeaway food mediated BMI differences between the least and most educated, and between those employed in blue collar occupations and their higher status counterparts. Decreasing the consumption of "less healthy" takeaway options may reduce socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity among women but not men.

A stochastic thermostat algorithm for coarse-grained thermomechanical modeling of large-scale soft matters : theory and application to microfilaments

As all-atom molecular dynamics method is limited by its enormous computational cost, various coarse-grained strategies have been developed to extend the length scale of soft matters in the modeling of mechanical behaviors. However, the classical thermostat algorithm in highly coarse-grained molecular dynamics method would underestimate the thermodynamic behaviors of soft matters (e.g. microfilaments in cells), which can weaken the ability of materials to overcome local energy traps in granular modeling. Based on all-atom molecular dynamics modeling of microfilament fragments (G-actin clusters), a new stochastic thermostat algorithm is developed to retain the representation of thermodynamic properties of microfilaments at extra coarse-grained level. The accuracy of this stochastic thermostat algorithm is validated by all-atom MD simulation. This new stochastic thermostat algorithm provides an efficient way to investigate the thermomechanical properties of large-scale soft matters.

A reference station-based GNSS computing mode to support unified precise point positioning and real-time kinematic services

Currently, the GNSS computing modes are of two classes: network-based data processing and user receiver-based processing. A GNSS reference receiver station essentially contributes raw measurement data in either the RINEX file format or as real-time data streams in the RTCM format. Very little computation is carried out by the reference station. The existing network-based processing modes, regardless of whether they are executed in real-time or post-processed modes, are centralised or sequential. This paper describes a distributed GNSS computing framework that incorporates three GNSS modes: reference station-based, user receiver-based and network-based data processing. Raw data streams from each GNSS reference receiver station are processed in a distributed manner, i.e., either at the station itself or at a hosting data server/processor, to generate station-based solutions, or reference receiver-specific parameters. These may include precise receiver clock, zenith tropospheric delay, differential code biases, ambiguity parameters, ionospheric delays, as well as line-of-sight information such as azimuth and elevation angles. Covariance information for estimated parameters may also be optionally provided. In such a mode the nearby precise point positioning (PPP) or real-time kinematic (RTK) users can directly use the corrections from all or some of the stations for real-time precise positioning via a data server. At the user receiver, PPP and RTK techniques are unified under the same observation models, and the distinction is how the user receiver software deals with corrections from the reference station solutions and the ambiguity estimation in the observation equations. Numerical tests demonstrate good convergence behaviour for differential code bias and ambiguity estimates derived individually with single reference stations. With station-based solutions from three reference stations within distances of 22–103 km the user receiver positioning results, with various schemes, show an accuracy improvement of the proposed station-augmented PPP and ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions with respect to the standard float PPP solutions without station augmentation and ambiguity resolutions. Overall, the proposed reference station-based GNSS computing mode can support PPP and RTK positioning services as a simpler alternative to the existing network-based RTK or regionally augmented PPP systems.

Bifurcations to travelling planar spots in a three-component FitzHugh-Nagumo system

In this article, we analyse bifurcations from stationary stable spots to travelling spots in a planar three-component FitzHugh-Nagumo system that was proposed previously as a phenomenological model of gas-discharge systems. By combining formal analyses, center-manifold reductions, and detailed numerical continuation studies, we show that, in the parameter regime under consideration, the stationary spot destabilizes either through its zeroth Fourier mode in a Hopf bifurcation or through its first Fourier mode in a pitchfork or drift bifurcation, whilst the remaining Fourier modes appear to create only secondary bifurcations. Pitchfork bifurcations result in travelling spots, and we derive criteria for the criticality of these bifurcations. Our main finding is that supercritical drift bifurcations, leading to stable travelling spots, arise in this model, which does not seem possible for its two-component version.

The poor penetration of topical burn agent through burn eschar on a porcine burn model [Letter to the Editor]

We read with great interest the article entitled “Enhancing drugs absorption through third-degree burn wound eschar” by Manafi et al. [1]. The authors addressed the concern of poor penetration of topically applied anti-microbials through burn eschar and detailed the improvement of this penetration by penetration enhancers. Here, we would like to report the poor penetration of a topical agent into the viable deep dermal layer under burn eschar on a porcine burn model [2]. In burn treatment, a common practice is the topical application of either anti-microbial products or wound enhancing agents. While the activity of anti-microbial products is designed to fight against microbes on the wound surface but with the least toxicity to viable tissue, wound enhancing agents need to reach the viable tissue layer under the burn eschar. Many studies have reported the accelerated healing of superficial burn wounds and skin graft donor sites by the topical application of exogeneous growth factors [3]. It is well known that the efficacy of the penetration of a topical agent on intact skin mostly depends on the molecular size of the product [4] and [5]. While burn injury destroys this epidermal physiological barrier, the coagulated burn tissue layer on the burn wound surface makes it difficult for topical agents to reach viable tissue....

French version of the Family Attitude Scale : psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.

A novel method using intranasal delivery of EdU demonstrates that accessory olfactory ensheathing cells respond to injury by proliferation

Olfactory ensheathing cells (OECs) play an important role in the continuous regeneration of the primary olfactory nervous system throughout life and for regeneration of olfactory neurons after injury. While it is known that several individual OEC subpopulations with distinct properties exist in different anatomical locations, it remains unclear how these different subpopulations respond to a major injury. We have examined the proliferation of OECs from one distinct location, the peripheral accessory olfactory nervous system, following large-scale injury (bulbectomy) in mice. We used crosses of two transgenic reporter mouse lines, S100ß-DsRed and OMP-ZsGreen, to visualise OECs, and main/accessory olfactory neurons, respectively. We surgically removed one olfactory bulb including the accessory olfactory bulb to induce degeneration, and found that accessory OECs in the nerve bundles that terminate in the accessory olfactory bulb responded by increased proliferation with a peak occurring 2 days after the injury. To label proliferating cells we used the thymidine analogue ethynyl deoxyuridine (EdU) using intranasal delivery instead of intraperitoneal injection. We compared and quantified the number of proliferating cells at different regions at one and four days after EdU labelling by the two different methods and found that intranasal delivery method was as effective as intrapeitoneal injection. We demonstrated that accessory OECs actively respond to widespread degeneration of accessory olfactory axons by proliferating. These results have important implications for selecting the source of OECs for neural regeneration therapies and show that intranasal delivery of EdU is an efficient and reliable method for assessing proliferation of olfactory glia.

Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation is associated with a decreased folate status in women of childbearing age

In vitro studies indicate that folate in collected human blood is vulnerable to degradation after exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. This has raised concerns about folate depletion in individuals with high sun exposure. Here, we investigate the association between personal solar UV radiation exposure and serum folate concentration, using a three-week prospective study that was undertaken in females aged 18–47 years in Brisbane, Australia (153 E, 27 S). Following two weeks of supplementation with 500 μg of folic acid daily, the change in serum folate status was assessed over a 7-day period of measured personal sun exposure. Compared to participants with personal UV exposures of <200 Joules per day, participants with personal UV exposures of 200–599 and >600 Joules per day had significantly higher depletion of serum folate (p = 0.015). Multivariable analysis revealed personal UV exposure as the strongest predictor accounting for 20% of the overall change in serum folate (Standardised B = −0.49; t = −3.75; p = <0.01). These data show that increasing solar UV radiation exposures reduces the effectiveness of folic acid supplementation. The consequences of this association may be most pronounced for vulnerable individuals, such as women who are pregnant or of childbearing age with high sun exposures.

Modifying behaviour to reduce over-speeding in work-related drivers : an objective approach

The goal of this study was to utilise an objective measurement tool, via an on-board Diagnostic tool (OBDII), to explore the effectiveness of a behaviour modification intervention designed to reduce over-speed violations in a group of work-related drivers. It was predicted that over-speed violations would be decreased following participation in a behaviour modification intervention where drivers received weekly feedback on their speeding performance and goal setting exercises. The final analysis included the on-road behaviour of 16 drivers, all of whom completed each stage of the intervention program. As predicted, over-speed violations significantly decreased from pre-test to post-test, after controlling for kilometres driven. These findings offer practical guidance for industry in developing interventions designed to improve work-related driving behaviour.

Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.