Remaining useful life prediction of rotating equipment using covariate-based hazard models : industry applications

The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.

Floods and property values: A hedonic property and efficiency analysis

This study investigates the impact floods on property values using the hedonic property price approach and other relevant econometric techniques. The main objectives of this research are to investigate (1) the impact of the release of flood-risk information and the actual floods on property values (2) the temporal behaviour of negative impacts (3) the property submarket behaviour (4) the behaviour of flood affected vs flood non-affected areas and (5) the property market efficiency. The thesis expanded on the existing literature on natural disasters by applying a range of econometric techniques. Findings of this research are useful for policy decision-making which is aimed at minimizing the negative impacts of natural hazards on property markets. The thesis findings also provide a better framework for decision-making in the property insurance market. The methodological improvements that are made in the thesis will be invaluable for analysing the impacts of natural hazards elsewhere.

Inside the black box of food safety: A qualitative study of ‘non-compliance’ among food businesses

Issue addressed The paper examines the meanings of food safety among food businesses deemed non-compliant and considers the need for an ‘insider perspective’ to inform a more nuanced health promotion practice. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with 29 food business operators who had been recently deemed ‘non-compliant’ through Council inspection. Result Paradoxically, these ‘non-compliers’ revealed a strong belief in the importance of food safety as well as a desire to comply with the regulations as communicated to them by Environmental Health Officers (EHOs). Conclusions The evidence base of food safety is largely informed by the science of food hazards, yet there is a very important need to illuminate the ‘insider’ experience of food businesses doing food safety on a daily basis. This requires a more socially nuanced appreciation of food businesses beyond the simple dichotomy of compliant/ non-compliant. So what? Armed with a deeper understanding of the social context surrounding food safety practice, it is anticipated that a more balanced, collaborative mode of food safety health promotion could develop which could add to the current signature model of regulation.

An exploratory ergonomic study of musculoskeletal disorder prevention in the Queensland Ambulance Service

From 2008-09 to 2012-13, the most prevalent worker compensation claim in the Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) was musculoskeletal injuries at >80%. This is consistent with literature that shows Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSD) was one of the front runners for workplace injuries among many professions. In an attempt to reduce the injury rate and related claims, the QAS created a selection criterion for their workers based on the Health Related Fitness Test. This method intended to select workers based upon their fitness level, instead of selecting for their ability to perform the tasks or modify the tasks to better suit the workers. With injury rates remaining high, further research produced the Patient Handling Equipment Project Report, which provided the background for the Manual Handling Program Book. The Manual Handling Program Book however lacks in accurately addressing musculoskeletal hazards; actions which cause or avoid injury, correct posture and motion for patient movement, muscular biomechanics, static and dynamic workload including activities causing strain, and equipment use in relation to musculoskeletal hazards. The exploratory research aims to better understand the ambulance service’s perception of Manual Materials Handling (MMH), how it relates to musculoskeletal injuries and how the service has attempted to reduce its prevalence. Based on a literature review and a critical analysis of the QAS Health Related Fitness Test, QAS Patient Handling Equipment Project Report and the QAS Manual Handling Program Book, an understanding of their shortfalls in the prevention of musculoskeletal injuries was gained. This entails understanding the work tasks, workloads, strains and workflow of paramedics. This research creates a starting point for further research into musculoskeletal injuries in paramedics. This study specifically looks at hazards related to musculoskeletal disorders. It identifies work system deficiencies that contribute to the prevalence of musculoskeletal injuries, and possible interventions to avoid them in paramedics.

Building resilient communities: Creating effective multi-channel communication during disaster response and recovery

Our aim is to examine evidence-based strategies to motivate appropriate action and increase informed decision-making during the response and recovery phases of disasters. We combine expertise in communication, consumer psychology and marketing, disaster and emergency management, and law. This poster presents findings from a social media work package, and preliminary findings from the focus group work package on emergency warning message comprehension.

The return to work experiences of middle-aged Australian workers diagnosed with colorectal cancer: a matched cohort study

Background Few studies have been undertaken to understand the employment impact in patients with colorectal cancer and none in middle-aged individuals with cancer. This study described transitions in, and key factors influencing, work participation during the 12 months following a diagnosis of colorectal cancer. Methods We enrolled 239 adults during 2010 and 2011who were employed at the time of their colorectal cancer diagnosis and were prospectively followed over 12 months. They were compared to an age- and gender-matched general population group of 717 adults from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. Data were collected using telephone and postal surveys. Primary outcomes included work participation at 12 months, changes in hours worked and time to work re-entry. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards models were undertaken. Results A significantly higher proportion of participants with colorectal cancer (27%) had stopped working at 12 months than participants from the comparison group (8%) (p < 0.001). Participants with cancer who returned to work took a median of 91 days off work (25–75 percentiles: 14–183 days). For participants with cancer, predictors of not working at 12 months included: being older, lower BMI and lower physical well-being. Factors related to delayed work re-entry included not being university-educated, working for an employer with more than 20 employees in a non-professional or managerial role, longer hospital stay, poorer perceived financial status and having or had chemotherapy. Conclusions In middle-adulthood, those working and diagnosed with colorectal cancer can expect to take around three months off work. Individuals treated with chemotherapy, without a university degree and from large employers could be targeted for specific assistance for a more timely work entry.

Engineered nanomaterials: Knowledge gaps in fate, exposure, toxicity, and future directions

The aim of this study is to identify current knowledge gaps in fate, exposure, and toxicity of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), highlight research gaps, and suggest future research directions. Humans and other living organisms are exposed to ENMs during production or use of products containing them. To assess the hazards of ENMs, it is important to assess their physiochemical properties and try to relate them to any observed hazard. However, the full determination of these relationships is currently limited by the lack of empirical data. Moreover, most toxicity studies do not use realistic environmental exposure conditions for determining dose-response parameters, affecting the accurate estimation of health risks associated with the exposure to ENMs. Regulatory aspects of nanotechnology are still developing and are currently the subject of much debate. Synthesis of available studies suggests a number of open questions. These include (i) developing a combination of different analytical methods for determining ENM concentration, size, shape, surface properties, and morphology in different environmental media, (ii) conducting toxicity studies using environmentally relevant exposure conditions and obtaining data relevant to developing quantitative nanostructure-toxicity relationships (QNTR), and (iii) developing guidelines for regulating exposure of ENMs in the environment.

Disaster management in Nepal: Media engagement in the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Nepal, as a consequence of its geographical location and changing climate, faces frequent threats of natural disasters. According to the World Bank’s 2005 Natural Disasters Hotspots Report, Nepal is ranked the 11th most vulnerable country to earthquake and 30th to flood risk. Geo-Hazards International (2011) has classified Kathmandu as one of the world’s most vulnerable cities to earthquakes. In the last four decades more than 32,000 people in Nepal have lost their lives and annual monetary loss is estimated at more than 15 million (US) dollars. This review identifies gaps in knowledge, and progress towards implementation of the Post Hyogo Framework of Action. Nepal has identified priority areas: community resilience, sustainable development and climate change induced disaster risk reduction. However, one gap between policy and action lies in the ability of Nepal to act effectively in accordance with an appropriate framework for media activities. Supporting media agencies include the Press Council, Federation of Nepalese Journalists, Nepal Television, Radio Nepal and Telecommunications Authority and community based organizations. The challenge lies in further strengthening traditional and new media to undertake systematic work supported by government bodies and the National Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC). Within this context, the ideal role for media is one that is proactive where journalists pay attention to a range of appropriate angles or frames when preparing and disseminating information. It is important to develop policy for effective information collection, sharing and dissemination in collaboration with Telecommunication, Media and Journalists. The aim of this paper is to describe the developments in disaster management in Nepal and their implications for media management. This study provides lessons for government, community and the media to help improve the framing of disaster messages. Significantly, the research highlights the prominence that should be given to flood, landslides, lightning and earthquakes.

Driver views on safety at roadworks

Poor compliance with temporary speed limits is a common contributing factor in roadway work zone crashes. Despite the wide range of measures used to encourage compliance, speeding remains a major challenge in work zone traffic control. As part of the major study into safety at Queensland roadworks conducted by CARRS-Q and industry partners, an online survey was conducted to study the perceptions and experiences of drivers regarding roadworks, speed choice and related safety concerns. Survey participants (N=410) were asked to view photographs of 12 roadwork sites (shot from a drivers’ perspective without revealing the speed limits), to nominate the speed they thought they would drive at through work zones, and to rate from 1 to 5 separate levels of perceived risk to workers and to their own vehicles. The survey sought further information on topics including recall and effectiveness of public safety messages, perceived effectiveness of common roadwork safety measures, and demographic characteristics. Participants were also invited to express their concerns regarding any general or specific issue related to driving through roadworks. The current paper provides a descriptive summary of key findings from the survey, drawn from preliminary analyses of both quantitative and qualitative data, demonstrating the depth of data and its value for improving knowledge on driver perceptions and speed choice at roadworks. The survey is the first study of driver perceptions of roadwork risks and hazards to include an assessment of self-nominated speeds which can be compared with actual observed speeds at the same roadwork sites.

Worker views on safety at roadworks

Roadworks in live traffic environments are hazardous to workers and road users alike. In an increasing body of international research literature, roadwork risks and hazards have been comprehensively examined. As in the broader field of road safety research, much of the work rightly takes a quantitative approach to assessing risk and related issues and to addressing the identified risks appropriately. In Australia, however, limited official data constrains the ability of researchers to achieve an in-depth understanding of the situation at state/territory and national levels based on traditional quantitative analyses. One way to enhance and supplement the limited available data is to consult those who are directly involved in roadworks for qualitative information, although such an approach is rarely reported in the roadwork safety arena. As part of the major study focusing on safety at roadworks in Queensland, 66 workers were interviewed about their perceptions and experiences regarding roadwork safety. This paper thus outlines a qualitative examination of workers' perceptions of the causes of roadwork incidents and the effectiveness of hazard mitigation measures. Consistent with findings reported in the literature is the view among workers that speeding is a major hazard and that police enforcement is the most effective countermeasure. Other hazards commonly observed by workers but less frequently reported elsewhere include driver distraction and aggression toward workers, working in poor weather and working at night. Workers mostly suggested educational measures to address distraction and aggression issues, though such measures are only tentatively supported in the literature.

Evaluation of safety treatments at roadwork zones

A major 3-year research project to improve safety at roadworks has recently been completed by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) and industry partners. This project involved developing strategies to mitigate roadwork hazards including speeding. This paper presents three on-road evaluation studies on the effectiveness of some current and new safety treatments: use of pilot vehicles, variable message signage (VMS), police enforcement with and without VMS, and remote-controlled traffic control devices. The speed reduction potential of pilot vehicles was evaluated at a highway site. Results showed that pilot vehicles reduced average speeds within the work area, but not at a downstream location. Combinations of VMS and police enforcement were evaluated at a motorway site and results showed that police enforcement accompanied with VMS had greater effects on reducing speeds than either of these treatments alone. Three new remote-controlled traffic control devices—red and amber lights, red light and amber arrow, and a robotic stop/slow sign—were evaluated at a highway site. Results showed that the red light and amber arrow option produced consistent effects on the speeds at the approach to traffic controls and at a location inside the work area. This paper presents the first rigorous evaluations of these roadwork safety treatments in Queensland.

Organisational driving safety systems analysis: Fleet safety situational issues and system gaps

The identification of safety hazards and risks and their associated control measures provides the foundation for any safety program and essentially determines the scope, content and complexity of an effective occupational health and safety management system. In the case of work-related road safety (WRRS), there is a gap within current knowledge, research and practice regarding the holistic assessment of WRRS safety systems and practice. In order to mitigate this gap, a multi-level process tool for assessing WRRS safety systems was developed from extensive consultation, practice and informed by theoretical models and frameworks. Data collection for the Organisational Driving Safety Systems Analysis (ODSSA) tool utilised a case study methodology and included multiple information sources: such as documents, archival records, interviews, direct observations, participant observations, and physical artefacts. Previous trials and application of the ODSSA has indicated that the tool is applicable to a wide range of organisational fleet environments and settings. This paper reports on the research results and effectiveness of the ODSSA tool to assess WRRS systems across a large organisation that recently underwent considerable organisational change, including amalgamation of multiple organisations. The outcomes of this project identified considerable differences in the degree by which the organisation addressed WRRS across their vehicle fleet operations and provided guidelines for improving organisations’ WRRS systems. The ODSSA tool was pivotal in determining WRRS system deficiencies and provided a platform to inform mitigation and improvement strategies.

Predicting occupant risk indicators for frontal impacts with redirective crash cushions

Crash cushions are devices deployed on the road network in order to shield fixed roadside hazards and the non-crashworthy ends of road safety barriers. However crash cushions vary in terms of configuration and operation, meaning that different devices may also vary in terms of ability to mitigate occupant risk. In this study, data derived from crash testing of eleven redirective crash cushions is used as the base input to a numerical procedure for calculation of occupant risk indicators Occupant Impact Velocity (OIV), Occupant Ridedown Acceleration (ORA) and longitudinal Acceleration Severity Index (ASI) for a range of simulated impacting vehicles (mass 800 kg to 2,500 kg) impacting each crash cushion at a range of impact speeds (18 m/s to 32 m/s). The results may be interpreted as demonstrating firstly that enhanced knowledge of the performance of a device over a range of impact conditions, i.e., beyond the crash testing, may assist in determining the crash cushion most suited to a particular application; secondly that a more appropriate conformance test for occupant risk would be a frontal impact by a small (light) vehicle travelling parallel to and aligned with the centreline of the crash cushion; and thirdly that current documented numerical procedures for calculating occupant risk indicators may require review.

Assessment of the severity of Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone in 2014–2015

The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa is unprecedented in scale, and Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country. The case fatality risk (CFR) and hospitalization fatality risk (HFR) were used to characterize the severity of infections in confirmed and probable EVD cases in Sierra Leone. Proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate factors associated with the risk of death in EVD cases. In total, there were 17 318 EVD cases reported in Sierra Leone from 23 May 2014 to 31 January 2015. Of the probable and confirmed EVD cases with a reported final outcome, a total of 2536 deaths and 886 recoveries were reported. CFR and HFR estimates were 74·2% [95% credibility interval (CrI) 72·6–75·5] and 68·9% (95% CrI 66·2–71·6), respectively. Risks of death were higher in the youngest (0–4 years) and oldest (≥60 years) age groups, and in the calendar month of October 2014. Sex and occupational status did not significantly affect the mortality of EVD. The CFR and HFR estimates of EVD were very high in Sierra Leone.

Survival analysis of time-to-event data in respiratory health research studies

This article provides a review of techniques for the analysis of survival data arising from respiratory health studies. Popular techniques such as the Kaplan–Meier survival plot and the Cox proportional hazards model are presented and illustrated using data from a lung cancer study. Advanced issues are also discussed, including parametric proportional hazards models, accelerated failure time models, time-varying explanatory variables, simultaneous analysis of multiple types of outcome events and the restricted mean survival time, a novel measure of the effect of treatment.