310 resultados para estimate
Resumo:
Excessive grazing pressure is detrimental to plant productivity and may lead to declines in soil organic matter. Soil organic matter is an important source of plant nutrients and can enhance soil aggregation, limit soil erosion, and can also increase cation exchange and water holding capacities, and is, therefore, a key regulator of grassland ecosystem processes. Changes in grassland management which reverse the process of declining productivity can potentially lead to increased soil C. Thus, rehabilitation of areas degraded by overgrazing can potentially sequester atmospheric C. We compiled data from the literature to evaluate the influence of grazing intensity on soil C. Based on data contained within these studies, we ascertained a positive linear relationship between potential C sequestration and mean annual precipitation which we extrapolated to estimate global C sequestration potential with rehabilitation of overgrazed grassland. The GLASOD and IGBP DISCover data sets were integrated to generate a map of overgrazed grassland area for each of four severity classes on each continent. Our regression model predicted losses of soil C with decreased grazing intensity in drier areas (precipitation less than 333 mm yr(-1)), but substantial sequestration in wetter areas. Most (93%) C sequestration potential occurred in areas with MAP less than 1800 mm. Universal rehabilitation of overgrazed grasslands can sequester approximately 45 Tg C yr(-1), most of which can be achieved simply by cessation of overgrazing and implementation of moderate grazing intensity. Institutional level investments by governments may be required to sequester additional C.
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More than 13 Mha of nonfederal land in the southeastern U.S. are devoted to pastureland. Between 1982 and 1992, pastureland increased by 100,000 ha, with nearly 70% converted from cultivated land. We examined the potential for carbon (C) sequestration with improved pasture management and conversion into pastureland from cultivated land. Improved pasture management techniques, such as intensive grazing, fertilization, introduction of improved grass and legume species, and better irrigation systems can lead to sequestration of atmospheric C in soil. Literature values for the influence of changes in pasture management on soil C were summarized for several potential management changes in the Southeast. Soil C sequestration estimates for the Southeast were based on current pasture management practices and evaluated for a range of different adoption rates of improved practices. Conversion into pasture can also potentially sequester significant amounts of atmospheric C in soils. Land-use data from the National Resources Inventory and literature estimates of soil C changes following conversion to pasture were used to estimate historical (1982 to 1992) soil C sequestration in pastures. Potential future sequestration was estimated based on extrapolation of land-use trends between 1982 and 1992. With continued conversion into pasture and improvement of pasture management, southeastern U.S. pasture soils may be a significant C sink for several years.
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Machine vision represents a particularly attractive solution for sensing and detecting potential collision-course targets due to the relatively low cost, size, weight, and power requirements of the sensors involved. This paper describes the development of detection algorithms and the evaluation of a real-time flight ready hardware implementation of a vision-based collision detection system suitable for fixed-wing small/medium size UAS. In particular, this paper demonstrates the use of Hidden Markov filter to track and estimate the elevation (β) and bearing (α) of the target, compares several candidate graphic processing hardware choices, and proposes an image based visual servoing approach to achieve collision avoidance
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An algorithm based on the concept of combining Kalman filter and Least Error Square (LES) techniques is proposed in this paper. The algorithm is intended to estimate signal attributes like amplitude, frequency and phase angle in the online mode. This technique can be used in protection relays, digital AVRs, DGs, DSTATCOMs, FACTS and other power electronics applications. The Kalman filter is modified to operate on a fictitious input signal and provides precise estimation results insensitive to noise and other disturbances. At the same time, the LES system has been arranged to operate in critical transient cases to compensate the delay and inaccuracy identified because of the response of the standard Kalman filter. Practical considerations such as the effect of noise, higher order harmonics, and computational issues of the algorithm are considered and tested in the paper. Several computer simulations and a laboratory test are presented to highlight the usefulness of the proposed method. Simulation results show that the proposed technique can simultaneously estimate the signal attributes, even if it is highly distorted due to the presence of non-linear loads and noise.
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A statistical modeling method to accurately determine combustion chamber resonance is proposed and demonstrated. This method utilises Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) through the use of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm to yield a probability density function for the combustion chamber frequency and find the best estimate of the resonant frequency, along with uncertainty. The accurate determination of combustion chamber resonance is then used to investigate various engine phenomena, with appropriate uncertainty, for a range of engine cycles. It is shown that, when operating on various ethanol/diesel fuel combinations, a 20% substitution yields the least amount of inter-cycle variability, in relation to combustion chamber resonance.
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Red light cameras (RLCs) have been used in a number of US cities to yield a demonstrable reduction in red light violations; however, evaluating their impact on safety (crashes) has been relatively more difficult. Accurately estimating the safety impacts of RLCs is challenging for several reasons. First, many safety related factors are uncontrolled and/or confounded during the periods of observation. Second, “spillover” effects caused by drivers reacting to non-RLC equipped intersections and approaches can make the selection of comparison sites difficult. Third, sites selected for RLC installation may not be selected randomly, and as a result may suffer from the regression to the mean bias. Finally, crash severity and resulting costs need to be considered in order to fully understand the safety impacts of RLCs. Recognizing these challenges, a study was conducted to estimate the safety impacts of RLCs on traffic crashes at signalized intersections in the cities of Phoenix and Scottsdale, Arizona. Twenty-four RLC equipped intersections in both cities are examined in detail and conclusions are drawn. Four different evaluation methodologies were employed to cope with the technical challenges described in this paper and to assess the sensitivity of results based on analytical assumptions. The evaluation results indicated that both Phoenix and Scottsdale are operating cost-effective installations of RLCs: however, the variability in RLC effectiveness within jurisdictions is larger in Phoenix. Consistent with findings in other regions, angle and left-turn crashes are reduced in general, while rear-end crashes tend to increase as a result of RLCs.
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In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.
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Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.
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BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, poor infant and young child feeding practices are contributing to the burden of infectious diseases and malnutrition. Objective. To estimate the determinants of selected feeding practices and key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding in Bangladesh. METHODS: The sample included 2482 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey of 2004. The World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended infant and young child feeding indicators were estimated, and selected feeding indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community-level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Only 27.5% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour after birth, 99.9% had ever breastfed their infants, 97.3% were currently breastfeeding, and 22.4% were currently bottle-feeding. Among infants under 6 months of age, 42.5% were exclusively breastfed, and among those aged 6 to 9 months, 62.3% received complementary foods in addition to breastmilk. Among the risk factors for an infant not being exclusively breastfed were higher socioeconomic status, higher maternal education, and living in the Dhaka region. Higher birth order and female sex were associated with increased rates of exclusive breastfeeding of infants under 6 months of age. The risk factors for bottle-feeding were similar and included having a partner with a higher educational level (OR = 2.17), older maternal age (OR for age > or = 35 years = 2.32), and being in the upper wealth quintiles (OR for the richest = 3.43). Urban mothers were at higher risk for not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth (OR = 1.61). Those who made three to six visits to the antenatal clinic were at lower risk for not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour (OR = 0.61). The rate of initiating breastfeeding within the first hour was higher in mothers from richer households (OR = 0.37). CONCLUSIONS: Most breastfeeding indicators in Bangladesh were below acceptable levels. Breastfeeding promotion programs in Bangladesh need nationwide application because of the low rates of appropriate infant feeding indicators, but they should also target women who have the main risk factors, i.e., working mothers living in urban areas (particularly in Dhaka).
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Background: Poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of childhood malnutrition and morbidity. Objective: To estimate the key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding and the determinants of selected feeding practices in Sri Lanka. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,127 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey 2000. The key infant feeding indicators were estimated and selected indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community- level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 56.3% of infants, 99.7% had ever been breastfed, 85.0% were currently being breastfed, and 27.2% were being bottle-fed. Of infants under 6 months of age, 60.6% were fully breastfed, and of those aged 6 to 9 months, 93.4% received complementary foods. The likelihood of not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth was higher for mothers who underwent cesarean delivery (OR = 3.23) and those who were not visited by a Public Health Midwife at home during pregnancy (OR = 1.81). The rate of full breastfeeding was significantly lower among mothers who did not receive postnatal home visits by a Public Health Midwife. Bottlefeeding rates were higher among infants whose mothers had ever been employed (OR = 1.86), lived in a metropolitan area (OR = 3.99), or lived in the South-Central Hill country (OR = 3.11) and were lower among infants of mothers with secondary education (OR = 0.27). Infants from the urban (OR = 8.06) and tea estate (OR = 12.63) sectors were less likely to receive timely complementary feeding than rural infants. Conclusions: Antenatal and postnatal contacts with Public Health Midwives were associated with improved breastfeeding practices. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically focus on the estate and urban or metropolitan communities.
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Background: Childhood undernutrition and mortality are high in Nepal, and therefore interventions on infant and young child feeding practices deserve high priority. Objective. To estimate infant and young child feeding indicators and the determinants of selected feeding practices. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,906 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Demographic and Health Survey 2006. Selected indicators were examined against a set of variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results. Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 35.4% of children, 99.5% were ever breastfed, 98.1% were currently breastfed, and 3.5% were bottle-fed. The rate of exclusive breastfeeding among infants under 6 months of age was 53.1%, and the rate of timely complementary feeding among those 6 to 9 months of age was 74.7%. Mothers who made antenatal clinic visits were at a higher risk for no exclusive breastfeeding than those who made no visits. Mothers who lived in the mountains were more likely to initiate breastfeeding within 1 hour after birth and to introduce complementary feeding at 6 to 9 months of age, but less likely to exclusively breastfeed. Cesarean deliveries were associated with delay in timely initiation of breastfeeding. Higher rates of complementary feeding at 6 to 9 months were also associated with mothers with better education and those above 35 years of age. Risk factors for bottle-feeding included living in urban areas and births attended by trained health personnel. Conclusions: Most breastfeeding indicators in Nepal are below the expected levels to achieve a substantial reduction in child mortality. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically target mothers who have more contact with the health care delivery system, while programs targeting the entire community should be continued.
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Background: In India, poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of malnutrition and infant and child mortality. Objective. To estimate infant and young child feeding indicators and determinants of selected feeding practices in India. Methods: The sample consisted of 20,108 children aged 0 to 23 months from the National Family Health Survey India 2005–06. Selected indicators were examined against a set of variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Only 23.5% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour after birth, 99.2% had ever breastfed their infant, 89.8% were currently breastfeeding, and 14.8% were currently bottle-feeding. Among infants under 6 months of age, 46.4% were exclusively breastfed, and 56.7% of those aged 6 to 9 months received complementary foods. The risk factors for not exclusively breastfeeding were higher household wealth index quintiles (OR for richest = 2.03), delivery in a health facility (OR = 1.35), and living in the Northern region. Higher numbers of antenatal care visits were associated with increased rates of exclusive breastfeeding (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.58). The rates of timely initiation of breastfeeding were higher among women who were better educated (OR for secondary education or above = 0.79), were working (OR = 0.79), made more antenatal clinic visits (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.48), and were exposed to the radio (OR = 0.76). The rates were lower in women who were delivered by cesarean section (OR = 2.52). The risk factors for bottle-feeding included cesarean delivery (OR = 1.44), higher household wealth index quintiles (OR = 3.06), working by the mother (OR=1.29), higher maternal education level (OR=1.32), urban residence (OR=1.46), and absence of postnatal examination (OR=1.24). The rates of timely complementary feeding were higher for mothers who had more antenatal visits (OR=0.57), and for those who watched television (OR=0.75). Conclusions: Revitalization of the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative in health facilities is recommended. Targeted interventions may be necessary to improve infant feeding practices in mothers who reside in urban areas, are more educated, and are from wealthier households.
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There are several noninvasive techniques for assessing the kinetics of tear film, but no comparative studies have been conducted to evaluate their efficacies. Our aim is to test and compare techniques based on high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV), dynamic wavefront sensing (DWS), and lateral shearing interferometry (LSI). Algorithms are developed to estimate the tear film build-up time TBLD, and the average tear film surface quality in the stable phase of the interblink interval TFSQAv. Moderate but significant correlations are found between TBLD measured with LSI and DWS based on vertical coma (Pearson's r2=0.34, p<0.01) and higher order rms (r2=0.31, p<0.01), as well as between TFSQAv measured with LSI and HSV (r2=0.35, p<0.01), and between LSI and DWS based on the rms fit error (r2=0.40, p<0.01). No significant correlation is found between HSV and DWS. All three techniques estimate tear film build-up time to be below 2.5 sec, and they achieve a remarkably close median value of 0.7 sec. HSV appears to be the most precise method for measuring tear film surface quality. LSI appears to be the most sensitive method for analyzing tear film build-up.
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The use of appropriate financial incentives within construction projects can contribute to strong alignment of project stakeholder motivation with project goals. However, effective incentive system design can be a challenging task and takes skillful planning by client managers in the early stages of a project. In response to a lack of information currently available to construction clients in this area, this paper explores the features of a successful incentive system and identifies key learnings for client managers to consider when designing incentives. Our findings, based on data from a large Australian case study, suggest that key stakeholders place greater emphasis on the project management processes that support incentives than on the incentive itself. Further, contractors need adequate time and information to accurately estimate construction costs prior to their tender price submission to ensure cost-focused incentive goals remain achievable. Thus, client managers should be designing incentives as part of a supportive procurement strategy to maximize project stakeholder motivation and prevent goal misalignment.
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It is possible to estimate the depth of focus (DOF) of the eye directly from wavefront measurements using various retinal image quality metrics (IQMs). In such methods, DOF is defined as the range of defocus error that degrades the retinal image quality calculated from IQMs to a certain level of the maximum value. Although different retinal image quality metrics are used, currently there have been two arbitrary threshold levels adopted, 50% and 80%. There has been limited study of the relationship between these threshold levels and the actual measured DOF. We measured the subjective DOF in a group of 17 normal subjects, and used through-focus augmented visual Strehl ratio based on optical transfer function (VSOTF) derived from their wavefront aberrations as the IQM. For each subject, a VSOTF threshold level was derived that would match the subjectively measured DOF. Significant correlation was found between the subject’s estimated threshold level and the HOA RMS (Pearson’s r=0.88, p<0.001). The linear correlation can be used to estimate the threshold level for each individual subject, subsequently leading to a method for estimating individual’s DOF from a single measurement of their wavefront aberrations.