Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Economic prosperity, suburbanization, and the creative workforce : findings from Australian suburban communities

This paper considers the changing relationship between economic prosperity and Australian suburbs, noting that what has been termed “the first suburban nation” in experiencing an intensification of suburban growth in the 2000s, in the context of economic globalization. The paper reports on a three-year Australian Research Council funded project into “Creative Suburbia”, identifying the significant percentage of the creative industries workforce who live in suburban areas. Drawing on case studies from suburbs in the Australian cities of Brisbane and Melbourne, it notes the contrasts between the experience of these workers, who are generally positive towards suburban life, and the underlying assumptions of “creative cities” policy discourse that such workers prefer to be concentrated in high density inner urban creative clusters.

Why evolutionary realism underpins evolutionary economic analysis and theory

This paper offers a reply to Jochen Runde's critical appraisal of the ontological framework underpinning Dopfer and Potts's (2008) General Theory of Economic Evolution. We argue that Runde's comprehensive critique contains several of what we perceive to be misunderstandings in relation to the key concepts of ‘generic’ and ‘meso’ that we seek here to unpack and redress.

Auckland's creative workforce report 2010

The report aims to improve the understanding of Auckland’s creative employment by applying a proven methodology to detailed employment and earnings data from recent NZ Censuses. The approach analyses creative employment based on the occupations of those employed within their industry of employment. The dual dimensions allow a more nuanced understanding than the traditional approaches of employment within creative industries or employment within creative occupations.

School education as social and economic governance : responsibilising communities through industry-school engagement

This article examines shifts in educational and social governance taking place in Queensland, Australia, through Industry School Engagement Strategy of Education Queensland and its Gateway Schools program. This significant educational initiative is set within the context of the social investment agenda first articulated in the education policy framework, Queensland State Education-2010. The article traces the historic extension of this governmental strategy through establishment of the Gateway Schools concept that brokers industry-school partnerships with global players in the Queensland economy. Industry sectors forming the partnerships include Minerals and Energy, Aerospace, Wine Tourism, Agribusiness, Manufacturing and Engineering, Building and Construction and ICT. We argue that this ‘post-bureaucratic’ model of schooling represents a new social settlement of neoliberal governance, in which educational outcomes align with economic objectives, and frame the conditions for community self-governance.

Diversity in Knowledge Management : A Cultural Approach

This paper reviews diversity in knowledge management (KM) from a cultural perspective; it argues that culturally embedded theories and practices influence the practice of knowledge management. It further presents and analyses several case studies and in particular a case study of the Islamic culture focusing on its traditional approach to both Islamic knowledge and management. The analysis of this case reveals the cultural challenges that emerge in the process of applying essentially Western management theories within an Islamic culture with particular reference to knowledge management theories. The paper concludes that the concept of knowledge management must take into account the diversity of national culture in which the organization exists and that the concept of knowledge management will benefit from a diversity perspective rather than a universality perspective.

Social Procurement: Promoting the sustainability of NPOs through the transformation of economic, social and cultural capital

Social procurement provides a key source of income for the Third Sector, and is vital for the sustainability of many nonprofit organisations. Social procurement involves the exchange of economic capital from one organisation, typically government (although for-profit and non-profit organisations can also purchase), with a nonprofit organisations in order to deliver other forms of. It is this transformation of economic capital into other forms of capital (cultural, human, social) in the social procurement process, which is the focus of this paper. Four case studies, which are representative of the four main types of social procurement, will be examined in order to trace how economic capital is transformed into other types of capital in each of these cases. In so doing, the paper will advance our understanding of social procurement theoretically, and lead to a wider discussion about the role of social procurement in ensuring the sustainability of nonprofit organisations, and the civil societies in which they operate.

Seeing the outer suburbs : addressing the urban bias in creative place thinking

Seeing the outer suburbs: addressing the urban bias in creative place thinking, Regional Studies. This paper draws upon quantitative and qualitative research into Australian cities to question the assumption that creative industries workers inherently seek to cluster in inner-urban areas. It challenges this foundational assumption by combining a critical application of the location quotient analysis of major Australian cities with qualitative research drawn from interviews with creative workers based in suburban Melbourne and Brisbane. The findings provide analyses as to why many creative industries workers prefer to locate themselves in outer suburban places. There is also discussion of the implications of these findings for future work on the cultural geography and policies of creative industries.

Socio-economic differences in takeaway food consumption among adults

To examine socioeconomic differences in the frequency and types of takeaway foods consumed. Cross-sectional postal survey. Participants were asked about their usual consumption of overall takeaway food (< four times a month, or ≥ four times a month) and 22 specific takeaway food items (< once a month, or ≥ once a month): these latter foods were grouped into “healthy” and “less healthy” choices. Socioeconomic position was measured using education and equivalised household income and differences in takeaway food consumption were assessed by calculating prevalence ratios using log binomial regression. Adults aged 25–64 years from Brisbane, Australia were randomly selected from the electoral roll (N = 903, 63.7% response rate). Compared with their more educated counterparts, the least educated were more regular consumers of overall takeaway food, fruit/vegetable juice, and less regular consumers of sushi. For the “less healthy” items, the least educated more regularly consumed potato chips, savoury pies, fried chicken, and non-diet soft drinks; however, the least educated were less likely to consume curry. Household income was not associated with overall takeaway consumption. The lowest income group were more regular consumers of fruit/vegetable juice compared with the highest income group. Among the “less healthy” items, the lowest income group were more regular consumers of fried fish, ice-cream, and milk shakes, while curry was consumed less regularly. The frequency and types of takeaway foods consumed by socioeconomically disadvantaged groups may contribute to inequalities in overweight/obesity and chronic disease.

Value co-creation in social marketing wellness services

Customer perceived value is concerned with the experiences of consumers when using a service and is often referred to in the context of service provision or on the basis of service quality (Auh, et al., 2007; Chang, 2008; Jackson, 2007; Laukkanen, 2007; Padgett & Mulvey, 2007; Shamdasani, Mukherjee & Malhotra, 2008). Understanding customer perceived value has benefits for social marketing and allows scholars and practitioners alike to identify why consumers engage in positive social behaviours through the use of services. Understanding consumers’ use of wellness services in particular is important, because the use of wellness services demonstrates the fulfilment of social marketing aims; performing pro-active, positive social behaviours that are of benefit to the individual and to society (Andreasen, 1994). As consumers typically act out of self-interest (Rothschild, 1999), this research posits that a value proposition must be made to consumers in order to encourage behavioural change. Thus, this research seeks to identify how value is created for consumers of wellness services in social marketing. This results in the overall research question of this research: How is value created in social marketing wellness services? A traditional method towards understanding value has been the adoption of an economic approach, which considers the utility gained and where value is a direct outcome of a cost-benefit analysis (Payne & Holt, 1999). However, there has since been a shift towards the adoption of an experiential approach in understanding value. This experiential approach considers the consumption experience of the consumer which extends beyond the service exchange and includes pre- and post-consumption stages (Russell-Bennett, Previte & Zainuddin, 2009). As such, this research uses an experiential approach to identify the value that exists in social marketing wellness services. Four dimensions of value have been commonly conceptualised and identified in the commercial marketing literature; functional, emotional, social, and altruistic value (Holbrook, 1994; Sheth, Newman & Gross, 1991; Sweeney & Soutar, 2001). It is not known if these value dimensions also exist in social marketing. In addition, sources of value said to influence value dimensions have been conceptualised in the literature. Sources of value such as information, interaction, environment, service, customer co-creation, and social mandate have been conceptually identified both in the commercial and social marketing literature (Russell-Bennet, Previte & Zainuddin, 2009; Smith & Colgate, 2007). However, it is not clear which sources of value contribute to the creation of value for users of wellness services. Thus, this research seeks to explore these relationships. This research was conducted using a wellness service context, specifically breast cancer screening services. The primary target consumer of these services is women aged 50 to 69 years old (inclusive) who have never been diagnosed with breast cancer. It is recommended that women in this target group have a breast screen every 2 years in order to achieve the most effective medical outcomes from screening. A two-study mixed method approach was utilised. Study 1 was a qualitative exploratory study that analysed individual-depth interviews with 25 information-rich respondents. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using NVivo 8 software. The qualitative results provided evidence of the existence of the four value dimensions in social marketing. The results also allowed for the development of a typology of experiential value by synthesising current understanding of the value dimensions, with the activity aspects of experiential value identified by Holbrook (1994) and Mathwick, Malhotra and Rigdon (2001). The qualitative results also provided evidence for the existence of sources of value in social marketing, namely information, interaction, environment and consumer participation. In particular, a categorisation of sources of value was developed as a result of the findings from Study 1, which identify organisational, consumer, and third party sources of value. A proposed model of value co-creation and a set of hypotheses were developed based on the results of Study 1 for further testing in Study 2. Study 2 was a large-scale quantitative confirmatory study that sought to test the proposed model of value co-creation and the hypotheses developed. An online-survey was administered Australia-wide to women in the target audience. A response rate of 20.1% was achieved, resulting in a final sample of 797 useable responses after removing ineligible respondents. Reliability and validity analyses were conducted on the data, followed by Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) in PASW18, followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) in AMOS18. Following the preliminary analyses, the data was subject to Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) in AMOS18 to test the path relationships hypothesised in the proposed model of value creation. The SEM output revealed that all hypotheses were supported, with the exception of one relationship which was non-significant. In addition, post hoc tests revealed seven further significant non-hypothesised relationships in the model. The quantitative results show that organisational sources of value as well as consumer participation sources of value influence both functional and emotional dimensions of value. The experience of both functional and emotional value in wellness services leads to satisfaction with the experience, followed by behavioural intentions to perform the behaviour and use the service again. One of the significant non-hypothesised relationships revealed that emotional value leads to functional value in wellness services, providing further empirical evidence that emotional value features more prominently than functional value for users of wellness services. This research offers several contributions to theory and practice. Theoretically, this research addresses a gap in the literature by using social marketing theory to provide an alternative method of understanding individual behaviour in a domain that has been predominantly investigated in public health. This research also clarifies the concept of value and offers empirical evidence to show that value is a multi-dimensional construct with separate and distinct dimensions. Empirical evidence for a typology of experiential value, as well as a categorisation of sources of value is also provided. In its practical contributions, this research identifies a framework that is the value creation process and offers health services organisations a diagnostic tool to identify aspects of the service process that facilitate the value creation process.

Cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : exploring industry feasibility through systems analysis, techno-economic assessment and pilot plant development

Overcoming many of the constraints to early stage investment in biofuels production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia requires an understanding of the complex technical, economic and systemic challenges associated with the transition of established sugar industry structures from single product agri-businesses to new diversified multi-product biorefineries. While positive investment decisions in new infrastructure requires technically feasible solutions and the attainment of project economic investment thresholds, many other systemic factors will influence the investment decision. These factors include the interrelationships between feedstock availability and energy use, competing product alternatives, technology acceptance and perceptions of project uncertainty and risk. This thesis explores the feasibility of a new cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia based on the large sugarcane fibre (bagasse) resource available. The research explores industry feasibility from multiple angles including the challenges of integrating ethanol production into an established sugarcane processing system, scoping the economic drivers and key variables relating to bioethanol projects and considering the impact of emerging technologies in improving industry feasibility. The opportunities available from pilot scale technology demonstration are also addressed. Systems analysis techniques are used to explore the interrelationships between the existing sugarcane industry and the developing cellulosic biofuels industry. This analysis has resulted in the development of a conceptual framework for a bagassebased cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia and uses this framework to assess the uncertainty in key project factors and investment risk. The analysis showed that the fundamental issue affecting investment in a cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia is the uncertainty in the future price of ethanol and government support that reduces the risks associated with early stage investment is likely to be necessary to promote commercialisation of this novel technology. Comprehensive techno-economic models have been developed and used to assess the potential quantum of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia, to assess the feasibility of a soda-based biorefinery at the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and to assess the feasibility of reducing the cost of production of fermentable sugars from the in-planta expression of cellulases in sugarcane in Australia. These assessments show that ethanol from sugarcane in Australia has the potential to make a significant contribution to reducing Australia’s transportation fuel requirements from fossil fuels and that economically viable projects exist depending upon assumptions relating to product price, ethanol taxation arrangements and greenhouse gas emission reduction incentives. The conceptual design and development of a novel pilot scale cellulosic ethanol research and development facility is also reported in this thesis. The establishment of this facility enables the technical and economic feasibility of new technologies to be assessed in a multi-partner, collaborative environment. As a key outcome of this work, this study has delivered a facility that will enable novel cellulosic ethanol technologies to be assessed in a low investment risk environment, reducing the potential risks associated with early stage investment in commercial projects and hence promoting more rapid technology uptake. While the study has focussed on an exploration of the feasibility of a commercial cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia, many of the same key issues will be of relevance to other sugarcane industries throughout the world seeking diversification of revenue through the implementation of novel cellulosic ethanol technologies.

Optimal allocation of water in village irrigation systems of Sri Lanka

This PhD study examines whether water allocation becomes more productive when it is re-allocated from 'low' to 'high' efficient alternative uses in village irrigation systems (VISs) in Sri Lanka. Reservoir-based agriculture is a collective farming economic activity, which inter-sectoral allocation of water is assumed to be inefficient due to market imperfections and weak user rights. Furthermore, the available literature shows that a „head-tail syndrome. is the most common issue for intra-sectoral water management in „irrigation. agriculture. This research analyses the issue of water allocation by using primary data collected from two surveys of 460 rice farmers and 325 fish farming groups in two administrative districts in Sri Lanka. Technical efficiency estimates are undertaken for both rice farming and culture-based fisheries (CBF) production. The equi-marginal principle is applied for inter and intra-sectoral allocation of water. Welfare benefits of water re-allocation are measured through consumer surplus estimation. Based on these analyses, the overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. The estimated mean technical efficiency (MTE) for rice farming is 73%. For CBF production, the estimated MTE is 33%. The technical efficiency distribution is skewed to the left for rice farming, while it skewed to the right for CBF production. The results show that technical efficiency of rice farming can be improved by formalising transferability of land ownership and, therefore, water user rights by enhancing the institutional capacity of Farmer Organisations (FOs). Other effective tools for improving technical efficiency of CBF production are strengthening group stability of CBF farmers, improving the accessibility of official consultation, and attracting independent investments. Inter-sectoral optimal allocation shows that the estimated inefficient volume of water in rice farming, which can be re-allocated for CBF production, is 32%. With the application of successive policy instruments (e.g., a community transferable quota system and promoting CBF activities), there is potential for a threefold increase in marginal value product (MVP) of total reservoir water in VISs. The existing intra-sectoral inefficient volume of water use in tail-end fields and head-end fields can potentially be removed by reducing water use by 10% and 23% respectively and re-allocating this to middle fields. This re-allocation may enable a twofold increase in MVP of water used in rice farming without reducing the existing rice output, but will require developing irrigation practices to facilitate this re-allocation. Finally, the total productivity of reservoir water can be increased by responsible village level institutions and primary level stakeholders (i.e., co-management) sharing responsibility of water management, while allowing market forces to guide the efficient re-allocation decisions. This PhD has demonstrated that instead of farmers allocating water between uses haphazardly, they can now base their decisions on efficient water use with a view to increasing water productivity. Such an approach, no doubt will enhance farmer incomes and community welfare.

Economic growth and suicide rate changes : a case in China from 1982 to 2005

It is to estimate the trend of suicide rate changes during the past three decades in China and try to identify its social and economic correlates. Official data of suicide rates and economic indexes during 1982–2005 from Shandong Province of China were analyzed. The suicide data were categorized for the rural / urban location and gender, and the economic indexes include GDP, GDP per capita, rural income, and urban income, all adjusted for inflation. We found a significant increase of economic development and decrease of suicide rates over the past decades under study. The suicide rate decrease is correlated with the tremendous growth of economy. The unusual decrease of Chinese suicide rates in the past decades is accounted for within the Chinese cultural contexts and maybe by the Strain Theory of Suicide.