Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

REGAL : a regularization based algorithm for reinforcement learning in weakly communicating MDPs

We provide an algorithm that achieves the optimal regret rate in an unknown weakly communicating Markov Decision Process (MDP). The algorithm proceeds in episodes where, in each episode, it picks a policy using regularization based on the span of the optimal bias vector. For an MDP with S states and A actions whose optimal bias vector has span bounded by H, we show a regret bound of ~ O(HS p AT ). We also relate the span to various diameter-like quantities associated with the MDP, demonstrating how our results improve on previous regret bounds.

Investigation of methods for increasing the energy efficiency on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVS)

In recent years, development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) has become a significant growing segment of the global aviation industry. These vehicles are developed with the intention of operating in regions where the presence of onboard human pilots is either too risky or unnecessary. Their popularity with both the military and civilian sectors have seen the use of UAVs in a diverse range of applications, from reconnaissance and surveillance tasks for the military, to civilian uses such as aid relief and monitoring tasks. Efficient energy utilisation on an UAV is essential to its functioning, often to achieve the operational goals of range, endurance and other specific mission requirements. Due to the limitations of the space available and the mass budget on the UAV, it is often a delicate balance between the onboard energy available (i.e. fuel) and achieving the operational goals. This thesis presents an investigation of methods for increasing the energy efficiency on UAVs. One method is via the development of a Mission Waypoint Optimisation (MWO) procedure for a small fixed-wing UAV, focusing on improving the onboard fuel economy. MWO deals with a pre-specified set of waypoints by modifying the given waypoints within certain limits to achieve its optimisation objectives of minimising/maximising specific parameters. A simulation model of a UAV was developed in the MATLAB Simulink environment, utilising the AeroSim Blockset and the in-built Aerosonde UAV block and its parameters. This simulation model was separately integrated with a multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) optimiser and a Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) solver to perform single-objective and multi-objective optimisation procedures of a set of real-world waypoints in order to minimise the onboard fuel consumption. The results of both procedures show potential in reducing fuel consumption on a UAV in a ight mission. Additionally, a parallel Hybrid-Electric Propulsion System (HEPS) on a small fixedwing UAV incorporating an Ideal Operating Line (IOL) control strategy was developed. An IOL analysis of an Aerosonde engine was performed, and the most efficient (i.e. provides greatest torque output at the least fuel consumption) points of operation for this engine was determined. Simulation models of the components in a HEPS were designed and constructed in the MATLAB Simulink environment. It was demonstrated through simulation that an UAV with the current HEPS configuration was capable of achieving a fuel saving of 6.5%, compared to the ICE-only configuration. These components form the basis for the development of a complete simulation model of a Hybrid-Electric UAV (HEUAV).

Novel numerical methods for time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions

We consider time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions. This equation is obtained from the standard reaction diffusion equation by replacing the first order time derivative with the Caputo fractional derivative, and the second order space derivatives with the fractional Laplacian. Using the matrix transfer technique proposed by Ilic, Liu, Turner and Anh [Fract. Calc. Appl. Anal., 9:333--349, 2006] and the numerical solution strategy used by Yang, Turner, Liu, and Ilic [SIAM J. Scientific Computing, 33:1159--1180, 2011], the solution of the time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions can be written in terms of a matrix function vector product $f(A)b$ at each time step, where $A$ is an approximate matrix representation of the standard Laplacian. We use the finite volume method over unstructured triangular meshes to generate the matrix $A$, which is therefore non-symmetric. However, the standard Lanczos method for approximating $f(A)b$ requires that $A$ is symmetric. We propose a simple and novel transformation in which the standard Lanczos method is still applicable to find $f(A)b$, despite the loss of symmetry. Numerical results are presented to verify the accuracy and efficiency of our newly proposed numerical solution strategy.

Structural Systematics of the Anhydrous 1:1 Proton-Transfer Compounds of 3,5-Dinitrosalicylic Acid with Aniline and Monosubstituted Anilines

The crystal structures of the proton-transfer compounds of 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid (DNSA) with a series of aniline-type Lewis bases [aniline, 2-hydroxyaniline, 2-methoxyaniline, 3-methoxyaniline, 4-fluoroaniline, 4-chloroaniline and 2-aminoaniline] have been determined and their hydrogen-bonding systems analysed. All are anhydrous 1:1 salts: [(C6H8N)+(C7H3N2O7)-], (1), [(C6H8NO)+(C7H3N2O7)-], (2), [(C7H10NO)+(C7H3N2O7)-], (3), [(C7H10NO)+(C7H3N2O7)-], (4), [(C6H7FN)+(C7H3N2O7)-], (5), [(C6H7ClN)+(C7H3N2O7)-], (6), and [(C6H9N2)+(C7H3N2O7)-], (7) respectively. Crystals of 1 and 6 are triclinic, space group P-1 while the remainder are monoclinic with space group either P21/n (2, 4, 5 and 7) or P21 (3). Unit cell dimensions and contents are: for 1, a = 7.2027(17), b = 7.5699(17), c = 12.9615(16) Å, α = 84.464(14), β = 86.387(15), γ = 75.580(14)o, Z = 2; for 2, a = 7.407(3), b = 6.987(3), c = 27.653(11) Å, β = 94.906(7)o, Z = 4; for 3, a = 8.2816(18), b = 23.151(6), c = 3.9338(10), β = 95.255(19)o, Z = 2; for 4, a = 11.209(2), b = 8.7858(19), c = 15.171(3) Å, β = 93.717(4)o, Z = 4; for 5, a = 26.377(3), b = 10.1602(12), c = 5.1384(10) Å, β = 91.996(13)o, Z = 4; for 6, a = 11.217(3), b = 14.156(5), c = 4.860(3) Å, α = 99.10(4), β = 96.99(4), γ = 76.35(2)o, Z = 2; for 7, a = 12.830(4), b = 8.145(3), c = 14.302(4) Å, β = 102.631(6)o, Z = 4. In all compounds at least one primary linear intermolecular N+-H…O(carboxyl) hydrogen-bonding interaction is present which, together with secondary hydrogen bonding results in the formation of mostly two-dimensional network structures, exceptions being with compounds 4 and 5 (one-dimensional) and compound 6 (three-dimensional). In only two cases [compounds 1 and 4], are weak cation-anion or cation-cation π-π interactions found while weak aromatic C-H…O interactions are insignificant. The study shows that all compounds fit the previously formulated classification scheme for primary and secondary interactive modes for proton-transfer compounds of 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid but there are some unusual variants.

The HarmonyGrid : music, space and performance in grid music systems

This research explores music in space, as experienced through performing and music-making with interactive systems. It explores how musical parameters may be presented spatially and displayed visually with a view to their exploration by a musician during performance. Spatial arrangements of musical components, especially pitches and harmonies, have been widely studied in the literature, but the current capabilities of interactive systems allow the improvisational exploration of these musical spaces as part of a performance practice. This research focuses on quantised spatial organisation of musical parameters that can be categorised as grid music systems (GMSs), and interactive music systems based on them. The research explores and surveys existing and historical uses of GMSs, and develops and demonstrates the use of a novel grid music system designed for whole body interaction. Grid music systems provide plotting of spatialised input to construct patterned music on a two-dimensional grid layout. GMSs are navigated to construct a sequence of parametric steps, for example a series of pitches, rhythmic values, a chord sequence, or terraced dynamic steps. While they are conceptually simple when only controlling one musical dimension, grid systems may be layered to enable complex and satisfying musical results. These systems have proved a viable, effective, accessible and engaging means of music-making for the general user as well as the musician. GMSs have been widely used in electronic and digital music technologies, where they have generally been applied to small portable devices and software systems such as step sequencers and drum machines. This research shows that by scaling up a grid music system, music-making and musical improvisation are enhanced, gaining several advantages: (1) Full body location becomes the spatial input to the grid. The system becomes a partially immersive one in four related ways: spatially, graphically, sonically and musically. (2) Detection of body location by tracking enables hands-free operation, thereby allowing the playing of a musical instrument in addition to “playing” the grid system. (3) Visual information regarding musical parameters may be enhanced so that the performer may fully engage with existing spatial knowledge of musical materials. The result is that existing spatial knowledge is overlaid on, and combined with, music-space. Music-space is a new concept produced by the research, and is similar to notions of other musical spaces including soundscape, acoustic space, Smalley's “circumspace” and “immersive space” (2007, 48-52), and Lotis's “ambiophony” (2003), but is rather more textural and “alive”—and therefore very conducive to interaction. Music-space is that space occupied by music, set within normal space, which may be perceived by a person located within, or moving around in that space. Music-space has a perceivable “texture” made of tensions and relaxations, and contains spatial patterns of these formed by musical elements such as notes, harmonies, and sounds, changing over time. The music may be performed by live musicians, created electronically, or be prerecorded. Large-scale GMSs have the capability not only to interactively display musical information as music representative space, but to allow music-space to co-exist with it. Moving around the grid, the performer may interact in real time with musical materials in music-space, as they form over squares or move in paths. Additionally he/she may sense the textural matrix of the music-space while being immersed in surround sound covering the grid. The HarmonyGrid is a new computer-based interactive performance system developed during this research that provides a generative music-making system intended to accompany, or play along with, an improvising musician. This large-scale GMS employs full-body motion tracking over a projected grid. Playing with the system creates an enhanced performance employing live interactive music, along with graphical and spatial activity. Although one other experimental system provides certain aspects of immersive music-making, currently only the HarmonyGrid provides an environment to explore and experience music-space in a GMS.

Creating new narratives through shared time and space : the performer/audience connection in multi-site dance events

Site-specific performance provides choices in audience experience via degrees of scale, proximity, levels of immersion and viewing perspectives. Beyond these choices, multi-site promenade events also form a connected audience/performer relationship in which moving together in time and space can produce a shared narrative and aesthetic sensibility of collective, yet individuated and shifting meanings. This paper interrogates this notion through audience/performer experiences in two separate multi-site, dance-led events. here/there/then/now occurred in four intimate sites within the Brisbane Powerhouse, providing a theatricalised platform for audiences to create linked narratives through open-ended and fragmented intertextuality. Accented Body, based on the concept of “the body as site and in site” and notions of connectivity, provided a more expansive platform for a similar, but heightened, shared engagement. Audiences traversed 6 outdoor and 2 indoor Brisbane sites moving to varying levels of a large complex. Eleven, predominantly interactive, screens provided links to other sites as well as to distributed presences in Seoul and London. The differentiation in scale and travel time between sites deepened the immersive experiences of audiences who reported transformative engagements with both site and architecture, accompanied by a sense of extended and yet quickened time.

Hydrogen-bonding in the structures of the hydrated proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide with the isomeric indole-2 and indole-3-carboxylic acids

The structures of two hydrated proton-transfer compounds of 4-piperidinecarboxamide (isonipecotamide) with the isomeric heteroaromatic carboxylic acids indole-2-carboxylic acid and indole-3-carboxylic acid, namely 4-carbamoylpiperidinium indole-2-carboxylate dihydrate (1) and 4-carbamoylpiperidinium indole-3-carboxylate hemihydrate (2) have been determined at 200 K. Crystals of both 1 and 2 are monoclinic, space groups P21/c and P2/c respectively with Z = 4 in cells having dimensions a = 10.6811(4), b = 12.2017(4), c = 12.5456(5) Å, β = 96.000(4)o (1) and a = 15.5140(4), b = 10.2908(3), c = 9.7047(3) Å, β = 97.060(3)o (2). Hydrogen-bonding in 1 involves a primary cyclic interaction involving complementary cation amide N-H…O(carboxyl) anion and anion hetero N-H…O(amide) cation hydrogen bonds [graph set R22(9)]. Secondary associations involving also the water molecules of solvation give a two-dimensional network structure which includes weak water O-H…π interactions. In the three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structure of 2, there are classic centrosymmetric cyclic head-to-head hydrogen-bonded amide-amide interactions [graph set R22(8)] as well as lateral cyclic amide-O linked amide-amide extensions [graph set R24(8)]. The anions and the water molecule, which lies on a twofold rotation axis, are involved in secondary extensions.

Body composition and appetite : fat-free mass (but not fat mass or BMI) is positively associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake in humans

The idea of body weight regulation implies that a biological mechanism exerts control over energy expenditure and food intake. This is a central tenet of energy homeostasis. However, the source and identity of the controlling mechanism have not been identified, although it is often presumed to be some long-acting signal related to body fat, such as leptin. Using a comprehensive experimental platform, we have investigated the relationship between biological and behavioural variables in two separate studies over a 12-week intervention period in obese adults (total n 92). All variables have been measured objectively and with a similar degree of scientific control and precision, including anthropometric factors, body composition, RMR and accumulative energy consumed at individual meals across the whole day. Results showed that meal size and daily energy intake (EI) were significantly correlated with fat-free mass (FFM, P values ,0·02–0·05) but not with fat mass (FM) or BMI (P values 0·11–0·45) (study 1, n 58). In study 2 (n 34), FFM (but not FM or BMI) predicted meal size and daily EI under two distinct dietary conditions (high-fat and low-fat). These data appear to indicate that, under these circumstances, some signal associated with lean mass (but not FM) exerts a determining effect over self-selected food consumption. This signal may be postulated to interact with a separate class of signals generated by FM. This finding may have implications for investigations of the molecular control of food intake and body weight and for the management of obesity.

Writing the self : the emergence of a dialogic space

While much narrative inquiry is concerned with issues of self and identity, doing study on the processes (the how) of self-making offers ongoing challenges to methodology. This article explores the creation of a dialogic space that assisted young adolescents to write about themselves and their daily lives using email journals as an alternative to face-to-face interviews. With the researcher acting as a listener-responder, and in the absence of researcher-designed questions, a dynamic field was opened up for participant-led self-making to emerge over a six month period of self-reflective written expression. The article describes a shared email relationship based on a dialogic pattern of thinking, writing, listening and response intended to foster participants’ voices as ontological narratives of self. Findings show the use of email journals created a synergy for self-disclosure and a safe space for self-expression where the willingness of participants to be themselves was encouraged. The self-representations of a specific group of gifted young adolescents thus emerged as written versions of “who” they are —offering data that differs from interview approaches and contributing to discussion of the value of ontology narratives.

A suspicious behaviour detection using a context space model for smart surveillance systems

Video surveillance systems using Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras, is one of the fastest growing areas in the field of security technologies. However, the existing video surveillance systems are still not at a stage where they can be used for crime prevention. The systems rely heavily on human observers and are therefore limited by factors such as fatigue and monitoring capabilities over long periods of time. This work attempts to address these problems by proposing an automatic suspicious behaviour detection which utilises contextual information. The utilisation of contextual information is done via three main components: a context space model, a data stream clustering algorithm, and an inference algorithm. The utilisation of contextual information is still limited in the domain of suspicious behaviour detection. Furthermore, it is nearly impossible to correctly understand human behaviour without considering the context where it is observed. This work presents experiments using video feeds taken from CAVIAR dataset and a camera mounted on one of the buildings Z-Block) at the Queensland University of Technology, Australia. From these experiments, it is shown that by exploiting contextual information, the proposed system is able to make more accurate detections, especially of those behaviours which are only suspicious in some contexts while being normal in the others. Moreover, this information gives critical feedback to the system designers to refine the system.

A semantics-based approach to querying process model repositories

As business process management technology matures, organisations acquire more and more business process models. The resulting collections can consist of hundreds, even thousands of models and their management poses real challenges. One of these challenges concerns model retrieval where support should be provided for the formulation and efficient execution of business process model queries. As queries based on only structural information cannot deal with all querying requirements in practice, there should be support for queries that require knowledge of process model semantics. In this paper we formally define a process model query language that is based on semantic relationships between tasks. This query language is independent of the particular process modelling notation used, but we will demonstrate how it can be used in the context of Petri nets by showing how the semantic relationships can be determined for these nets in such a way that state space explosion is avoided as much as possible. An experiment with three large process model repositories shows that queries expressed in our language can be evaluated efficiently.