Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

A frontier functions approach to optimal scales of sustainable production

This paper translates the concepts of sustainable production to three dimensions of economic, environmental and ecological sustainability to analyze optimal production scales by solving optimizing problems. Economic optimization seeks input-output combinations to maximize profits. Environmental optimization searches for input-output combinations that minimize the polluting effects of materials balance on the surrounding environment. Ecological optimization looks for input-output combinations that minimize the cumulative destruction of the entire ecosystem. Using an aggregate space, the framework illustrates that these optimal scales are often not identical because markets fail to account for all negative externalities. Profit-maximizing firms normally operate at the scales which are larger than optimal scales from the viewpoints of environmental and ecological sustainability; hence policy interventions are favoured. The framework offers a useful tool for efficiency studies and policy implication analysis. The paper provides an empirical investigation using a data set of rice farms in South Korea.

Functions and therapeutic roles of exosomes in cancer

The role of exosomes in cancer development has become the focus of much research, due to the many emerging roles possessed by exosomes. These micro-vesicles that are ubiquitously released in to the extracellular milieu, have been found to regulate immune system function, particularly in tumorigenesis, as well as conditioning future metastatic sites for the attachment and growth of tumor tissue. Through an interaction with a range of host tissue, exosomes are able to generate a pro-tumor environment that is essential for carcinogenesis. Herein, we discuss the contents of exosomes and their contribution to tumorigenesis, as well as their role in chemotherapeutic resistance and the development of novel cancer treatments and the identification of cancer biomarkers.

Critical linguistics in the early years : exploring functions of language through sophisticated picture books and process drama strategies

In this chapter we describe a critical fairytales unit taught to 4.5 to 5.5 year olds in a context of intensifying pressure to raise literacy achievement. The unit was infused with lessons on reinterpreted fairytales followed by process drama activities built around a sophisticated picture book, Beware of the Bears (MacDonald, 2004). The latter entailed a text analytic approach to critical literacy derived from systemic functional linguistics (Halliday, 1978; Halliday & Matthiessen, 2004). This approach provides a way of analysing how words and discourse are used to represent the world in a particular way and shape reader relations with the author in a particular field (Janks, 2010).

Developing affordable and sustainable housing through energy, transport, and building utility integration

Housing affordability and sustainable development are not polarised ideologies as both are necessary with increasing urbanisation. We must bridge the gap between current median house pricing and target affordable house pricing whilst pursuing sustainability. This paper examines the potential of initial construction cost and ongoing utilities and transport cost reduction through the integration of sustainable housing design and transit oriented development principles in a Commuter Energy and Building Utilities System (CEBUS). It also introduces current research on the development of a Dynamic Simulation Model for CEBUS applications in the Australian property development and construction industry.

Clinical outcomes, not clinical utility, should be the major consideration for saxagliptin with or without metformin

A recent review by Panagoulias and Doupis, published in Patient Preference and Adherence, concerned the saxagliptin/metformin fixed combination (SAXA/MET FDC), and was titled "Clinical utility in the treatment of type 2 diabetes with the saxagliptin/metformin fixed combination."1 This review concluded that "The SAXA/MET FDC is a patient-friendly, dosage-flexible, and hypoglycemia-safe regimen with very few adverse events and a neutral or even favorable effect on body weight. It achieves significant glycosylated hemoglobin A1c reduction helping the patient to achieve his/her individual glycemic goals."1

Deriving a preference-based utility measure for cancer patients from the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer's Quality of Life Questionnaire C30 : a confirmatory versus exploratory approach

Background Multi attribute utility instruments (MAUIs) are preference-based measures that comprise a health state classification system (HSCS) and a scoring algorithm that assigns a utility value to each health state in the HSCS. When developing a MAUI from a health-related quality of life (HRQOL) questionnaire, first a HSCS must be derived. This typically involves selecting a subset of domains and items because HRQOL questionnaires typically have too many items to be amendable to the valuation task required to develop the scoring algorithm for a MAUI. Currently, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) followed by Rasch analysis is recommended for deriving a MAUI from a HRQOL measure. Aim To determine whether confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is more appropriate and efficient than EFA to derive a HSCS from the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer’s core HRQOL questionnaire, Quality of Life Questionnaire (QLQ-C30), given its well-established domain structure. Methods QLQ-C30 (Version 3) data were collected from 356 patients receiving palliative radiotherapy for recurrent/metastatic cancer (various primary sites). The dimensional structure of the QLQ-C30 was tested with EFA and CFA, the latter informed by the established QLQ-C30 structure and views of both patients and clinicians on which are the most relevant items. Dimensions determined by EFA or CFA were then subjected to Rasch analysis. Results CFA results generally supported the proposed QLQ-C30 structure (comparative fit index =0.99, Tucker–Lewis index =0.99, root mean square error of approximation =0.04). EFA revealed fewer factors and some items cross-loaded on multiple factors. Further assessment of dimensionality with Rasch analysis allowed better alignment of the EFA dimensions with those detected by CFA. Conclusion CFA was more appropriate and efficient than EFA in producing clinically interpretable results for the HSCS for a proposed new cancer-specific MAUI. Our findings suggest that CFA should be recommended generally when deriving a preference-based measure from a HRQOL measure that has an established domain structure.

Examining the predictive value of combining the theory of planned behaviour and the volunteer functions inventory

The functions of the volunteer functions inventory were combined with the constructs of the theory of planned behaviour (i.e., attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control) to establish whether a stronger, single explanatory model prevailed. Undertaken in the context of episodic, skilled volunteering by individuals who were retired or approaching retirement (N = 186), the research advances on prior studies which either examined the predictive capacity of each model independently or compared their explanatory value. Using hierarchical regression analysis, the functions of the volunteer functions inventory (when controlling for demographic variables) explained an additional 7.0% of variability in individuals’ willingness to volunteer over and above that accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. Significant predictors in the final model included attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control from the theory of planned behaviour and the understanding function from the volunteer functions inventory. It is proposed that the items comprising the understanding function may represent a deeper psychological construct (e.g., self-actualisation) not accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. The findings highlight the potential benefit of combining these two prominent models in terms of improving understanding of volunteerism and providing a single parsimonious model for raising rates of this important behaviour.

Informal interactions between audit committees and internal audit functions : exploratory evidence and directions for future research

Purpose – This paper aims to recognise the importance of informal processes within corporate governance and complement existing research in this area by investigating factors associated with the existence of informal interactions between audit committees and internal audit functions and in providing directions for future research. Design/methodology/approach – To examine the existence and drivers of informal interactions between audit committees and internal audit functions, this paper relies on a questionnaire survey of chief audit executives (CAEs) in the UK from listed and non-listed, as well as financial and non-financial, companies. While prior qualitative research suggests that informal interactions do take place, most of the evidence is based on particular organisational setting or on a very small range of interviews. The use of a questionnaire enabled the examination of the existence of internal interactions across a relatively larger number of entities. Findings – The paper finds evidence of audit committees and internal audit functions engaging in informal interactions in addition to formal pre-scheduled regular meetings. Informal interactions complement formal meetings with the audit committee and as such represent additional opportunities for the audit committees to monitor internal audit functions. Audit committees’ informal interactions are significantly and positively associated with audit committee independence, audit chair’s knowledge and experience, and internal audit quality. Originality/value – The results demonstrate the importance of the background of the audit committee chair for the effectiveness of the governance process. This is possibly the first paper to examine the relationship between audit committee quality and internal audit, on the existence and driver of informal interactions. Policy makers should recognize that in addition to formal mechanisms, informal processes, such as communication outside of formal pre-scheduled meetings, play a significant role in corporate governance.

Building indifferentiable compression functions from the PGV compression functions

Preneel, Govaerts and Vandewalle (PGV) analysed the security of single-block-length block cipher based compression functions assuming that the underlying block cipher has no weaknesses. They showed that 12 out of 64 possible compression functions are collision and (second) preimage resistant. Black, Rogaway and Shrimpton formally proved this result in the ideal cipher model. However, in the indifferentiability security framework introduced by Maurer, Renner and Holenstein, all these 12 schemes are easily differentiable from a fixed input-length random oracle (FIL-RO) even when their underlying block cipher is ideal. We address the problem of building indifferentiable compression functions from the PGV compression functions. We consider a general form of 64 PGV compression functions and replace the linear feed-forward operation in this generic PGV compression function with an ideal block cipher independent of the one used in the generic PGV construction. This modified construction is called a generic modified PGV (MPGV). We analyse indifferentiability of the generic MPGV construction in the ideal cipher model and show that 12 out of 64 MPGV compression functions in this framework are indifferentiable from a FIL-RO. To our knowledge, this is the first result showing that two independent block ciphers are sufficient to design indifferentiable single-block-length compression functions.

The clinical utility of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia as a routine assessment in nursing homes

Objective To examine the clinical utility of the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) in nursing homes. Setting 14 nursing homes in Sydney and Brisbane, Australia. Participants 92 residents with a mean age of 85 years. Measurements Consenting residents were assessed by care staff for depression using the CSDD as part of their routine assessment. Specialist clinicians conducted assessment of depression using the Semi-structured Clinical Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders for residents without dementia or the Provisional Diagnostic Criteria for Depression in Alzheimer Disease for residents with dementia to establish expert clinical diagnoses of depression. The diagnostic performance of the staff completed CSDD was analyzed against expert diagnosis using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The CSDD showed low diagnostic accuracy, with areas under the ROC curve being 0.69, 0.68 and 0.70 for the total sample, residents with dementia and residents without dementia, respectively. At the standard CSDD cutoff score, the sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 59% for the total sample, 69% and 57% for residents with dementia, and 75% and 61% for residents without dementia. The Youden index (for optimizing cut-points) suggested different depression cutoff scores for residents with and without dementia. Conclusion When administered by nursing home staff the clinical utility of the CSDD is highly questionable in identifying depression. The complexity of the scale, the time required for collecting relevant information, and staff skills and knowledge of assessing depression in older people must be considered when using the CSDD in nursing homes.

Structural damage detection method using frequency response functions

Structural damage detection using measured dynamic data for pattern recognition is a promising approach. These pattern recognition techniques utilize artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm to match pattern features. In this study, an artificial neural network–based damage detection method using frequency response functions is presented, which can effectively detect nonlinear damages for a given level of excitation. The main objective of this article is to present a feasible method for structural vibration–based health monitoring, which reduces the dimension of the initial frequency response function data and transforms it into new damage indices and employs artificial neural network method for detecting different levels of nonlinearity using recognized damage patterns from the proposed algorithm. Experimental data of the three-story bookshelf structure at Los Alamos National Laboratory are used to validate the proposed method. Results showed that the levels of nonlinear damages can be identified precisely by the developed artificial neural networks. Moreover, it is identified that artificial neural networks trained with summation frequency response functions give higher precise damage detection results compared to the accuracy of artificial neural networks trained with individual frequency response functions. The proposed method is therefore a promising tool for structural assessment in a real structure because it shows reliable results with experimental data for nonlinear damage detection which renders the frequency response function–based method convenient for structural health monitoring.

Cryptographic hash functions

Cryptographic hash functions are an important tool of cryptography and play a fundamental role in efficient and secure information processing. A hash function processes an arbitrary finite length input message to a fixed length output referred to as the hash value. As a security requirement, a hash value should not serve as an image for two distinct input messages and it should be difficult to find the input message from a given hash value. Secure hash functions serve data integrity, non-repudiation and authenticity of the source in conjunction with the digital signature schemes. Keyed hash functions, also called message authentication codes (MACs) serve data integrity and data origin authentication in the secret key setting. The building blocks of hash functions can be designed using block ciphers, modular arithmetic or from scratch. The design principles of the popular Merkle–Damgård construction are followed in almost all widely used standard hash functions such as MD5 and SHA-1.

On hash functions using checksums

We analyse the security of iterated hash functions that compute an input dependent checksum which is processed as part of the hash computation. We show that a large class of such schemes, including those using non-linear or even one-way checksum functions, is not secure against the second preimage attack of Kelsey and Schneier, the herding attack of Kelsey and Kohno and the multicollision attack of Joux. Our attacks also apply to a large class of cascaded hash functions. Our second preimage attacks on the cascaded hash functions improve the results of Joux presented at Crypto’04. We also apply our attacks to the MD2 and GOST hash functions. Our second preimage attacks on the MD2 and GOST hash functions improve the previous best known short-cut second preimage attacks on these hash functions by factors of at least 226 and 254, respectively. Our herding and multicollision attacks on the hash functions based on generic checksum functions (e.g., one-way) are a special case of the attacks on the cascaded iterated hash functions previously analysed by Dunkelman and Preneel and are not better than their attacks. On hash functions with easily invertible checksums, our multicollision and herding attacks (if the hash value is short as in MD2) are more efficient than those of Dunkelman and Preneel.