Controlling chaos? The value and the challenges of applying complexity theory to project management

The literature abounds with descriptions of failures in high-profile projects and a range of initiatives has been generated to enhance project management practice (e.g., Morris, 2006). Estimating from our own research, there are scores of other project failures that are unrecorded. Many of these failures can be explained using existing project management theory; poor risk management, inaccurate estimating, cultures of optimism dominating decision making, stakeholder mismanagement, inadequate timeframes, and so on. Nevertheless, in spite of extensive discussion and analysis of failures and attention to the presumed causes of failure, projects continue to fail in unexpected ways. In the 1990s, three U.S. state departments of motor vehicles (DMV) cancelled major projects due to time and cost overruns and inability to meet project goals (IT-Cortex, 2010). The California DMV failed to revitalize their drivers’ license and registration application process after spending $45 million. The Oregon DMV cancelled their five year, $50 million project to automate their manual, paper-based operation after three years when the estimates grew to $123 million; its duration stretched to eight years or more and the prototype was a complete failure. In 1997, the Washington state DMV cancelled their license application mitigation project because it would have been too big and obsolete by the time it was estimated to be finished. There are countless similar examples of projects that have been abandoned or that have not delivered the requirements.

Resonance : a music director’s theomusicological study of ‘praise’ and ‘glory’ in a selection of four liturgical music excerpts

Some of my most powerful spiritual experiences have come from the splendorous and sublime sounding hymns performed by a choir and church organ at the traditional Anglican church I’ve attended since I was very young. In the later stage of my life, my pursuit of education in the field of engineering caused me to move to Australia where I regularly attended a contemporary evangelical church and subsequently became a music director in the faith community. This environmental and cultural shift altered my perception and musical experiences of Christian music and led me to enquire about the relationship between Christian liturgy and church music. Throughout history church musicians and composers have synthesised the theological, congregational, cultural and musical aspects of church liturgy. Many great composers have taken into account the conditions surrounding the process of sacred composition and arrangement of music to enhance the experience of religious ecstasy – they sought resonances with Christian values and beliefs to draw congregational participation into the light of praising and glorifying God. As a music director in an evangelical church this aspiration has become one I share. I hope to identify and define the qualities of these resonances that have been successful and apply them to my own practice. Introduction and Structure of the Thesis In this study I will examine four purposively selected excerpts of Christian church vocal music combining theomusicological and semiotic analysis to help identify guidelines that might be useful in my practice as a church music director. The four musical excerpts have been selected based upon their sustained musical and theological impact over time, and their ability to affect ecstatic responses from congregations. This thesis documents a personal journey through analysis of music and uses a context that draws upon ethno-musicological, theological and semiotic tools that lead to a preliminary framework and principles which can then be applied to the identified qualities of resonance in church music today. The thesis is comprised of four parts. Part 1 presents a literature study on the relationship between sacred music, the effects of religious ecstasy and the Christian church. Multiple lenses on this phenomenon are drawn from the viewpoints of prominent western church historians, Biblical theologians, and philosophers. The literature study continues in Part 2, where the role of embodiment is examined from the current perspective of cognitive learning environments. This study offers a platform for a critical reflection on two distinctive musical liturgical systems that have treated differently the notion of embodied understanding amidst a shifting church paradigm. This allows an in-depth theological and philosophical understanding of the liturgical conditions around sacred music-making that relates to the monistic and dualistic body/mind. Part 3 involves undertaking a theomusicological methodology that utilises creative case studies of four purposively selected spiritual pieces. A semiotic study focuses on specific sections of sacred vocal works that express the notions of ‘praise’ and ‘glorification’, particularly in relation to these effects,which combine an analysis of theological perspectives around religious ecstasy and particular spiritual themes. Part 4 presents the critiques and findings gathered from the study that incorporate theoretical and technological means to analyse the purposive selected musical artefact, particularly with the sonic narratives expressing notions of ‘Praise' and 'Glory’. The musical findings are further discussed in relation to the notion of resonance, and then a conceptual framework for the role of contemporary musicdirector is proposed. The musical and Christian terminologies used in the thesis are explained in the glossary, and the appendices includes tables illustrating the musical findings, conducted surveys, written musical analyses and audio examples of selected sacred pieces available on the enclosed compact disc.

Gender, sexuality and the challenge of seeing in Orlando

Orlando (Sally Potter, 1992) is a significant filmic achievement: in only ninety minutes it offers a rich, layered, and challenging account of a life lived across four hundred years, across two sexes and genders, and across multiple countries and cultures. Already established as a feminist artist, Potter aligns herself with a genealogy of feminist art by adapting Virginia Woolf’s Orlando: A Biography (1928) to tell the story of Orlando: a British subject who must negotiate their “identity” while living a strangely long time and, also somewhat strangely, changing biological sex from male to female. Both novel and film interrogate norms of gender and culture. They each take up issues of sex, gender, and sexuality as socially-constructed phenomena rather than as “essential truths”, and Orlando’s attempts to tell his/her story and make sense of his/her life mirror readers’ attempts to understand and interpret Orlando’s journey within inherited artistic traditions.

Natural convection boundary-layer adjacent to an inclined flat plate subject to sudden and ramp heating

The natural convection thermal boundary layer adjacent to an inclined flat plate subject to sudden heating and a temperature boundary condition which follows a ramp function up until a specified time and then remains constant is investigated. The development of the flow from start-up to a steady-state has been described based on scaling analyses and verified by numerical simulations. Different flow regimes based on the Rayleigh number are discussed with numerical results for both boundary conditions. For ramp heating, the boundary layer flow depends on the comparison of the time at which the ramp heating is completed and the time at which the boundary layer completes its growth. If the ramp time is long compared with the steady state time, the layer reaches a quasi steady mode in which the growth of the layer is governed solely by the thermal balance between convection and conduction. On the other hand, if the ramp is completed before the layer becomes steady; the subsequent growth is governed by the balance between buoyancy and inertia, as for the case of instantaneous heating.

Natural convection in attics subject to instantaneous and ramp cooling boundary conditions

A fundamental study of the fluid dynamics inside an attic shaped triangular enclosure with cold upper walls and adiabatic horizontal bottom wall is reported in this study. The transient behaviour of the attic fluid which is relevant to our daily life is examined based on a scaling analysis. The transient phenomenon begins with the instantaneous cooling and the cooling with linear decreases of temperature up to some specific time (ramp time) and then maintain constant of the upper sloped walls. It is shown that both inclined walls develop a thermal boundary layer whose thicknesses increase towards steady-state or quasi-steady values. A proper identification of the timescales, the velocity and the thickness relevant to the flow that develops inside the cavity makes it possible to predict theoretically the basic flow features that will survive once the thermal flow in the enclosure reaches a steady state. A time scale for the cooling-down of the whole cavity together with the heat transfer scales through the inclined walls has also been obtained through scaling analysis. All scales are verified by the numerical simulations.

Resource allocation and scheduling of multiple composite web services in cloud computing using cooperative coevolution genetic algorithm

In cloud computing, resource allocation and scheduling of multiple composite web services is an important and challenging problem. This is especially so in a hybrid cloud where there may be some low-cost resources available from private clouds and some high-cost resources from public clouds. Meeting this challenge involves two classical computational problems: one is assigning resources to each of the tasks in the composite web services; the other is scheduling the allocated resources when each resource may be used by multiple tasks at different points of time. In addition, Quality-of-Service (QoS) issues, such as execution time and running costs, must be considered in the resource allocation and scheduling problem. Here we present a Cooperative Coevolutionary Genetic Algorithm (CCGA) to solve the deadline-constrained resource allocation and scheduling problem for multiple composite web services. Experimental results show that our CCGA is both efficient and scalable.

Crisis communication under transformative change : the emergent context and roles of primary and secondary organisations

In an era of complex challenges that draw sustained media attention and entangle multiple organisational actors, this thesis addresses the gap between current trends in society and business, and existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication. By responding to calls from crisis communication researchers to develop theory (Coombs, 2006a), to examine the interdependencies of crises (Seeger, Sellnow, & Ulmer, 1998), and to consider variation in crisis response (Seeger, 2002), this thesis contributes to theory development in crisis communication and public relations. Through transformative change, this thesis extends existing scholarship built on a preservation or conservation logic where public relations is used to maintain stability by incrementally responding to changes in an organisation‘s environment (Cutlip, Center, & Broom, 2006; Everett, 2001; Grunig, 2000; Spicer, 1997). Based on the opportunity to contribute to ongoing theoretical development in the literature, the overall research problem guiding this thesis asks: How does transformative change during crisis influence corporate actors’ communication? This thesis adopts punctuated equilibrium theory, which describes change as alternating between long periods of stability and short periods of revolutionary or transformative change (Gersick, 1991; Romanelli & Tushman, 1994; Siggelkow, 2002; Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985). As a theory for change, punctuated equilibrium provides an opportunity to examine public relations and transformative change, building on scholarship that is based primarily on incremental change. Further, existing scholarship in public relations and crisis communication focuses on the actions of single organisations in situational or short-term crisis events. Punctuated equilibrium theory enables the study of multiple crises and multiple organisational responses during transformative change. In doing so, punctuated equilibrium theory provides a framework to explain both the context for transformative change and actions or strategies enacted by organisations during transformative change (Tushman, Newman, & Romanelli, 1986; Tushman & Romanelli, 1985; Tushman, Virany, & Romanelli, 1986). The connections between context and action inform the research questions that guide this thesis: RQ1: What symbolic and substantive strategies persist and change as crises develop from situational events to transformative and multiple linked events? RQ2: What features of the crisis context influence changes in symbolic and substantive strategies? To shed light on these research questions, the thesis adopts a qualitative approach guided by process theory and methods to explicate the events, sequences and activities that were essential to change (Pettigrew, 1992; Van de Ven, 1992). Specifically, the thesis draws on an alternative template strategy (Langley, 1999) that provides several alternative interpretations of the same events (Allison, 1971; Allison & Zelikow, 1999). Following Allison (1971) and Allison and Zelikow (1999), this thesis uses three alternative templates of crisis or strategic response typologies to construct three narratives using media articles and organisational documents. The narratives are compared to identify and draw out different patterns of crisis communication strategies that operate within different crisis contexts. The thesis is based on the crisis events that affected three organisations within the pharmaceutical industry for four years. The primary organisation is Merck, as its product recall crisis triggered transformative change affecting, in different ways, the secondary organisations of Pfizer and Novartis. Three narratives are presented based on the crisis or strategic response typologies of Coombs (2006b), Allen and Caillouet (1994), and Oliver (1991). The findings of this thesis reveal different stories about crisis communication under transformative change. By zooming in to a micro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to focus on the crisis communication and actions of a single organisation and zooming out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) to consider multiple organisations, new insights about crisis communication, change and the relationships among multiple organisations are revealed at context and action levels. At the context level, each subsequent narrative demonstrates greater connections among multiple corporate actors. By zooming out from Coombs‘ (2006b) focus on single organisations to consider Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) integration of the web of corporate actors, the thesis demonstrates how corporate actors add accountability pressures to the primary organisation. Next, by zooming further out to the macro perspective by considering Oliver‘s (1991) strategic responses to institutional processes, the thesis reveals a greater range of corporate actors that are caught up in the process of transformative change and accounts for their varying levels of agency over their environment. By zooming in to a micro perspective and out to a macro perspective (Nicolini, 2009) across alternative templates, the thesis sheds light on sequences, events, and actions of primary and secondary organisations. Although the primary organisation remains the focus of sustained media attention across the four-year time frame, the secondary organisations, even when one faced a similar starting situation to the primary organisation, were buffered by the process of transformative change. This understanding of crisis contexts in transforming environments builds on existing knowledge in crisis communication. At the action level, the thesis also reveals different interpretations from each alternative template. Coombs‘ (2006b) narrative shows persistence in the primary organisation‘s crisis or strategic responses over the four-year time frame of the thesis. That is, the primary organisation consistently applies a diminish crisis response. At times, the primary organisation drew on denial responses when corporate actors questioned its legitimacy or actions. To close the crisis, the primary organisation uses a rebuild crisis posture (Coombs, 2006). These finding are replicated in Allen and Caillouet‘s (1994) narrative, noting this template‘s limitation to communication messages only. Oliver‘s (1991) narrative is consistent with Coombs‘ (2006b) but also demonstrated a shift from a strategic response that signals conformity to the environment to one that signals more active resistance to the environment over time. Specifically, the primary organisation‘s initial response demonstrates conformity but these same messages were used some three years later to set new expectations in the environment in order to shape criteria and build acceptance for future organisational decisions. In summary, the findings demonstrate the power of crisis or strategic responses when considered over time and in the context of transformative change. The conclusions of this research contribute to scholarship in the public relations and management literatures. Based on the significance of organisational theory, the primary contribution of the theory relates to the role of interorganisational linkages or legitimacy buffers that form during the punctuation of equilibrium. The network of linkages among the corporate actors are significant also to the crisis communication literature as they form part of the process model of crisis communication under punctuated equilibrium. This model extends existing research that focuses on crisis communication of single organisations to consider the emergent context that incorporates secondary organisations as well as the localised contests of legitimacy and buffers from regulatory authorities. The thesis also provides an empirical base for punctuated equilibrium in public relations and crisis communication, extending Murphy‘s (2000) introduction of the theory to the public relations literature. In doing this, punctuated equilibrium theory reinvigorates theoretical development in crisis communication by extending existing scholarship around incrementalist approaches and demonstrating how public relations works in the context of transformative change. Further research in this area could consider using alternative templates to study transformative change caused by a range of crisis types from natural disasters to product tampering, and to add further insight into the dynamics between primary and secondary organisations. This thesis contributes to practice by providing guidelines for crisis response strategy selection and indicators related to the emergent context for crises under transformative change that will help primary and secondary organisations‘ responses to crises.

Managerial cognition and reputation : does communication about firms’ intangibles affect performance?

Corporate reputation is viewed as fundamental to firm performance, growth and survival and the maintenance and enhancement of that reputation is a key responsibility of senior executives. However, relatively little is known about the main dimensions of corporate reputation and the amount of attention given to them by senior executives. Based on the corporate reputation and intangible resources literatures, thirteen reputational elements were identified and the amount of attention given to those elements in a large, longitudinal sample of annual reports from Australian firms was measured using computer aided text analysis. This identified five, main reputational dimensions that were both stable over time and related to firms’ future financial performance.

Factors influencing health promotion activities in midlife and older Australian women with a chronic disease

Background: Chronic diseases including type 2 diabetes are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in midlife and older Australian women. There are a number of modifiable risk factors for type 2 diabetes and other chronic diseases including smoking, nutrition, physical activity and overweight and obesity. Little research has been conducted in the Australian context to explore the perceived barriers to health promotion activities in midlife and older Australian women with a chronic disease. Aims: The primary aim of this study was to explore women’s perceived barriers to health promotion activities to reduce modifiable risk factors, and the relationship of perceived barriers to smoking behaviour, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity and body mass index. A secondary aim of this study was to investigate nurses’ perceptions of the barriers to action for women with a chronic disease, and to compare those perceptions with those of the women. Methods: The study was divided into two phases where Phase 1 was a cross sectional survey of women, aged over 45 years with type 2 diabetes who were attending Diabetes clinics in the Primary and Community Health Service of the Metro North Health Service District of Queensland Health (N = 22). The women were a subsample of women participating in a multi-model lifestyle intervention, the ‘Reducing Chronic Disease among Adult Australian Women’ project. Phase 2 of the study was a cross sectional online survey of nurses working in Primary and Community Health Service in the Metro North Health Service District of Queensland Health (N = 46). Pender’s health promotion model was used as the theoretical framework for this study. Results: Women in this study had an average total barriers score of 32.18 (SD = 9.52) which was similar to average scores reported in the literature for women with a range of physical disabilities and illnesses. The leading five barriers for this group of women were: concern about safety; too tired; not interested; lack of information about what to do; with lack of time and feeling I can’t do things correctly the equal fifth ranked barriers. In this study there was no statistically significant difference in average total barriers scores between women in the intervention group and those is the usual care group of the parent study. There was also no significant relationship between the women’s socio-demographic variables and lifestyle risk factors and their level of perceived barriers. Nurses in the study had an average total barriers score of 44.48 (SD = 6.24) which was higher than all other average scores reported in the literature. The leading five barriers that nurses perceived were an issue for women with a chronic disease were: lack of time and interferes with other responsibilities the leading barriers; embarrassment about appearance; lack of money; too tired and lack of support from family and friends. There was no significant relationship between the nurses’ sociodemographic and nursing variables and the level of perceived barriers. When comparing the results of women and nurses in the study there was a statistically significant difference in the median total barriers score between the groups (p < 0.001), where the nurses perceived the barriers to be higher (Md = 43) than the women (Md = 33). There was also a significant difference in the responses to the individual barriers items in fifteen of the eighteen items (p < 0.002). Conclusion: Although this study is limited by a small sample size, it contributes to understanding the perception of midlife and older women with a chronic disease and also the perception of nurses, about the barriers to healthy lifestyle activities that women face. The study provides some evidence that the perceptions of women and nurses may differ and argues that these differences may have significant implications for clinical practice. The study recommends a greater emphasis on assessing and managing perceived barriers to health promotion activities in health education and policy development and proposes a conceptual model for understanding perceived barriers to action.

Synthesis and characterisation of metal oxyhydroxide and oxide nanomaterials

In this work, a range of nanomaterials have been synthesised based on metal oxyhydroxides MO(OH), where M=Al, Co, Cr, etc. Through a self-assembly hydrothermal route, metal oxyhydroxide nanomaterials with various morphologies were successfully synthesised: one dimensional boehmite (AlO(OH)) nanofibres, zero dimensional indium hydroxide (In(OH)3) nanocubes and chromium oxyhydroxide (CrO(OH)) nanoparticles, as well as two dimensional cobalt hydroxide and oxyhydroxide (Co(OH)2 & CoO(OH)) nanodiscs. In order to control the synthetic nanomaterial morphology and growth, several factors were investigated including cation concentration, temperature, hydrothermal treatment time, and pH. Metal ion doping is a promising technique to modify and control the properties of materials by intentionally introducing impurities or defects into the material. Chromium was successfully applied as a dopant for fabricating doped boehmite nanofibres. The thermal stability of the boehmite nanofibres was enhanced by chromium doping, and the photoluminescence property was introduced to the chromium doped alumina nanofibres. Doping proved to be an efficient method to modify and functionalize nanomaterials. The synthesised nanomaterials were fully characterised by X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) combined with selected area electron diffraction (SAED), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), BET specific surface area analysis, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA). Hot-stage Raman and infrared emission spectroscopy were applied to study the chemical reactions during dehydration and dehydroxylation. The advantage of these techniques is that the changes in molecular structure can be followed in situ and at the elevated temperatures.

An epistemic community as influencer and implementer in local government accounting in Australia

This paper adopts an epistemic community framework to explicate the dual role of epistemic communities as influencers of accounting policy within regulatory space and as implementers who effect change within the domain of accounting. The context is the adoption and implementation of fair value accounting within local government in New South Wales (NSW). The roles and functions of Australian local government are extensive, and include the development and maintenance of infrastructure, provision of recreational facilities, certain health and community services, buildings, cultural facilities, and in some cases, water and sewerage (Australian Local Government Association, 2009). The NSW state Department of Local Government (DLG) is responsible for legislation and policy development to ensure that local councils are able to deliver ‘quality services to their communities in a sustainable manner’ (DLG, 2008c). These local councils receive revenue from various sources including property rates, government grants and user-pays service provision. In July 2006 the DLG issued Circular 06-453 to councils (DLG, 2006c), mandating the staged adoption of fair value measurement of infrastructure assets. This directive followed the policy of NSW State Treasury (NSW Treasury, 2007),4 and an independent inquiry into the financial sustainability of local councils (LGSA, 2006). It was an attempt to resolve the inconsistency in public sector asset valuation in NSW Local Governments, and to provide greater usefulness and comparability of financial statements.5 The focus of this study is the mobilization of accounting change by the DLG within this wider political context. When a regulatory problem arises, those with political power seek advice from professionals with relevant skill and expertise (Potter, 2005). This paper explores the way in which professionals diffuse accounting ‘problems’ and the associated accounting solutions ‘across time and space’ (Potter, 2005, p. 277). The DLG’s fair value accounting policy emanated from a ‘regulatory space’ (Hancher and Moran, 1989)6 as a result of negotiations between many parties, including accounting and finance professionals. Operating within the local government sector, these professionals were identified by the DLG as being capable of providing helpful input. They were also responsible for the implementation of the new olicy within local councils. Accordingly they have been dentified as an pistemic community with the ability to ranslate regulatory power by changing he domain of ccounting (Potter, 2005, p. 278).7 The paper is organised as follows. The background to the LG’s decision to require the introduction of fair value accounting for infrastructure assets is explored. Following this, the method of the study is described, and the epistemic community framework outlined. In the next sections, evidence of the influencing and implementing roles of epistemic groups is provided. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the significance of these groups both within regulatory space in developing accounting regulation, and in embedding change within the domain of accounting.

The role of idea novelty and relatedness in nascent ventures

The study of venture idea characteristics and the contextual fit between venture ideas and individuals are key research goals in entrepreneurship (Davidsson, 2004). However, to date there has been limited scholarly attention given to these phenomena. Accordingly, this study aims to help fill the gap by investigating the importance of novelty and relatedness of venture ideas in entrepreneurial firms. On the premise that new venture creation is a process and that research should be focused on the early stages of the venturing process, this study primarily focuses its attention on examining how venture idea novelty and relatedness affect the performance in the venture creation process. Different types and degrees of novelty are considered here. Relatedness is shown to be based on individuals’ prior knowledge and resource endowment. Performance in the venture creation process is evaluated according to four possible outcomes: making progress, getting operational, being terminated and achieving positive cash flow. A theoretical model is developed demonstrating the relationship between these variables along with the investment of time and money. Several hypotheses are developed to be tested. Among them, it is hypothesised that novelty hinders short term performance in the venture creation process. On the other hand knowledge and resource relatedness are hypothesised to promote performance. An experimental study was required in order to understand how different types and degrees of novelty and relatedness of venture ideas affect the attractiveness of venture ideas in the eyes of experienced entrepreneurs. Thus, the empirical work in this thesis was based on two separate studies. In the first one, a conjoint analysis experiment was conducted on 32 experienced entrepreneurs in order to ascertain attitudinal preferences regarding venture idea attractiveness based on novelty, relatedness and potential financial gains. This helped to estimate utility values for different levels of different attributes of venture ideas and their relative importance in the attractiveness. The second study was a longitudinal investigation of how venture idea novelty and relatedness affect the performance in the venture creation process. The data for this study is from the Comprehensive Australian Study for Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) project that has been established in order to explore the new venture creation process in Australia. CAUSEE collects data from a representative sample of over 30,000 households in Australia using random digit dialling (RDD) telephone interviews. From these cases, data was collected at two points in time during a 12 month period from 493 firms, who are currently involved in the start-up process. Hypotheses were tested and inferences were derived through descriptive statistics, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling. Results of study 1 indicate that venture idea characteristics have a role in the attractiveness and entrepreneurs prefer to introduce a moderate degree of novelty across all types of venture ideas concerned. Knowledge relatedness is demonstrated to be a more significant factor in attractiveness than resource relatedness. Results of study 2 show that the novelty hinders nascent venture performance. On the other hand, resource relatedness has a positive impact on performance unlike knowledge relatedness which has none. The results of these studies have important implications for potential entrepreneurs, investors, researchers, consultants etc. by developing a better understanding in the venture creation process and its success factors in terms of both theory and practice.

Issues and concerns of microscopic calibration process at different network levels : case study of Pacific Motorway

Calibration process in micro-simulation is an extremely complicated phenomenon. The difficulties are more prevalent if the process encompasses fitting aggregate and disaggregate parameters e.g. travel time and headway. The current practice in calibration is more at aggregate level, for example travel time comparison. Such practices are popular to assess network performance. Though these applications are significant there is another stream of micro-simulated calibration, at disaggregate level. This study will focus on such microcalibration exercise-key to better comprehend motorway traffic risk level, management of variable speed limit (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) techniques. Selected section of Pacific Motorway in Brisbane will be used as a case study. The discussion will primarily incorporate the critical issues encountered during parameter adjustment exercise (e.g. vehicular, driving behaviour) with reference to key traffic performance indicators like speed, lane distribution and headway; at specific motorway points. The endeavour is to highlight the utility and implications of such disaggregate level simulation for improved traffic prediction studies. The aspects of calibrating for points in comparison to that for whole of the network will also be briefly addressed to examine the critical issues such as the suitability of local calibration at global scale. The paper will be of interest to transport professionals in Australia/New Zealand where micro-simulation in particular at point level, is still comparatively a less explored territory in motorway management.

Issues and concerns of microscopic calibration process at different network levels : case study of pacific motorway

Calibration process in micro-simulation is an extremely complicated phenomenon. The difficulties are more prevalent if the process encompasses fitting aggregate and disaggregate parameters e.g. travel time and headway. The current practice in calibration is more at aggregate level, for example travel time comparison. Such practices are popular to assess network performance. Though these applications are significant there is another stream of micro-simulated calibration, at disaggregate level. This study will focus on such micro-calibration exercise-key to better comprehend motorway traffic risk level, management of variable speed limit (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) techniques. Selected section of Pacific Motorway in Brisbane will be used as a case study. The discussion will primarily incorporate the critical issues encountered during parameter adjustment exercise (e.g. vehicular, driving behaviour) with reference to key traffic performance indicators like speed, land distribution and headway; at specific motorway points. The endeavour is to highlight the utility and implications of such disaggregate level simulation for improved traffic prediction studies. The aspects of calibrating for points in comparison to that for whole of the network will also be briefly addressed to examine the critical issues such as the suitability of local calibration at global scale. The paper will be of interest to transport professionals in Australia/New Zealand where micro-simulation in particular at point level, is still comparatively a less explored territory in motorway management.

Arterial travel time estimation : revisiting the classical procedure

Travel time is an important network performance measure and it quantifies congestion in a manner easily understood by all transport users. In urban networks, travel time estimation is challenging due to number of reasons such as, fluctuations in traffic flow due to traffic signals, significant flow to/from mid link sinks/sources, etc. The classical analytical procedure utilizes cumulative plots at upstream and downstream locations for estimating travel time between the two locations. In this paper, we discuss about the issues and challenges with classical analytical procedure such as its vulnerability to non conservation of flow between the two locations. The complexity with respect to exit movement specific travel time is discussed. Recently, we have developed a methodology utilising classical procedure to estimate average travel time and its statistic on urban links (Bhaskar, Chung et al. 2010). Where, detector, signal and probe vehicle data is fused. In this paper we extend the methodology for route travel time estimation and test its performance using simulation. The originality is defining cumulative plots for each exit turning movement utilising historical database which is self updated after each estimation. The performance is also compared with a method solely based on probe (Probe-only). The performance of the proposed methodology has been found insensitive to different route flow, with average accuracy of more than 94% given a probe per estimation interval which is more than 5% increment in accuracy with respect to Probe-only method.