Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

X-ray computed tomography

X-ray computed tomography (CT) is a medical imaging technique that produces images of trans-axial planes through the human body. When compared with a conventional radiograph, which is an image of many planes superimposed on each other, a CT image exhibits significantly improved contrast although this is at the expense of reduced spatial resolution.----- A CT image is reconstructed mathematically from a large number of one dimensional projections of the chosen plane. These projections are acquired electronically using a linear array of solid-state detectors and an x ray source that rotates around the patient.----- X-ray computed tomography is used routinely in radiological examinations. It has also be found to be useful in special applications such as radiotherapy treatment planning and three-dimensional imaging for surgical planning.

Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of L-tartaric acid with the associative-group monosubstituted pyridines 3-minopyridine, 3-carboxypyridine (nicotinic acid) and 2-carboxypyridine (picolinic acid).

The 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of L-tartaric acid with 3-aminopyridine [3-aminopyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate dihydrate, C5H7N2+·C4H5O6-·2H2O, (I)], pyridine-3-carboxylic acid (nicotinic acid) [anhydrous 3-carboxypyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate, C6H6NO2+·C4H5O6-, (II)] and pyridine-2-carboxylic acid [2-carboxypyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate monohydrate, C6H6NO2+·C4H5O6-·H2O, (III)] have been determined. In (I) and (II), there is a direct pyridinium-carboxyl N+-HO hydrogen-bonding interaction, four-centred in (II), giving conjoint cyclic R12(5) associations. In contrast, the N-HO association in (III) is with a water O-atom acceptor, which provides links to separate tartrate anions through Ohydroxy acceptors. All three compounds have the head-to-tail C(7) hydrogen-bonded chain substructures commonly associated with 1:1 proton-transfer hydrogen tartrate salts. These chains are extended into two-dimensional sheets which, in hydrates (I) and (III) additionally involve the solvent water molecules. Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures are generated via crosslinking through the associative functional groups of the substituted pyridinium cations. In the sheet struture of (I), both water molecules act as donors and acceptors in interactions with separate carboxyl and hydroxy O-atom acceptors of the primary tartrate chains, closing conjoint cyclic R44(8), R34(11) and R33(12) associations. Also, in (II) and (III) there are strong cation carboxyl-carboxyl O-HO hydrogen bonds [OO = 2.5387 (17) Å in (II) and 2.441 (3) Å in (III)], which in (II) form part of a cyclic R22(6) inter-sheet association. This series of heteroaromatic Lewis base-hydrogen L-tartrate salts provides further examples of molecular assembly facilitated by the presence of the classical two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded hydrogen tartrate or hydrogen tartrate-water sheet substructures which are expanded into three-dimensional frameworks via peripheral cation bifunctional substituent-group crosslinking interactions.

A pilot randomised control trial of general practitioner and exercise physiologist interventions to reduce primary cardiovascular risk in overweight patients [Abstract]

Aims & Rationale/Objectives: With the knowledge that overweight is a major public health concern in Australia, that a multidisciplinary team approach to the management of lifestyle-related conditions is supported, and that the Australian Government recently recognised the role of the exercise physiologist (EP) in reducing the health burden of disease by their inclusion for reimbursement under the Medicare Plus scheme, this study sought to undertake a pilot RCT to compare GP and EP interventions to reduce primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population. Methods and Measures: Overweight patients recruited by a convenience sample of GPs were randomised into one of three arms: the control group, or the GP or EP intervention group (in which patients received either five GP or five EP consultations over 24 weeks). Patients had baseline, 12- and 24-week measures of body composition and cardio-respiratory fitness, and completed baseline and end-of-study surveys, fasting lipids and glucose. GPs and EPs completed an end-of-study survey. Results:Sixty-seven patients attended the baseline assessment. Overall retention rate was 67%. Patients were generally satisfied with the effectiveness of the interventions and their weight reduction. Favourable trends in BMI, weight, glucose and exercise levels for GP and EP intervention groups and in physical activity levels for all groups Conclusions: This study supports the feasibility of a RCT of GP and EP interventions for decreasing primary cardiovascular risk in the overweight general practice population.

Mathematical modelling of muscle recruitment and function in the lumbar spine

Low back pain is an increasing problem in industrialised countries and although it is a major socio-economic problem in terms of medical costs and lost productivity, relatively little is known about the processes underlying the development of the condition. This is in part due to the complex interactions between bone, muscle, nerves and other soft tissues of the spine, and the fact that direct observation and/or measurement of the human spine is not possible using non-invasive techniques. Biomechanical models have been used extensively to estimate the forces and moments experienced by the spine. These models provide a means of estimating the internal parameters which can not be measured directly. However, application of most of the models currently available is restricted to tasks resembling those for which the model was designed due to the simplified representation of the anatomy. The aim of this research was to develop a biomechanical model to investigate the changes in forces and moments which are induced by muscle injury. In order to accurately simulate muscle injuries a detailed quasi-static three dimensional model representing the anatomy of the lumbar spine was developed. This model includes the nine major force generating muscles of the region (erector spinae, comprising the longissimus thoracis and iliocostalis lumborum; multifidus; quadratus lumborum; latissimus dorsi; transverse abdominis; internal oblique and external oblique), as well as the thoracolumbar fascia through which the transverse abdominis and parts of the internal oblique and latissimus dorsi muscles attach to the spine. The muscles included in the model have been represented using 170 muscle fascicles each having their own force generating characteristics and lines of action. Particular attention has been paid to ensuring the muscle lines of action are anatomically realistic, particularly for muscles which have broad attachments (e.g. internal and external obliques), muscles which attach to the spine via the thoracolumbar fascia (e.g. transverse abdominis), and muscles whose paths are altered by bony constraints such as the rib cage (e.g. iliocostalis lumborum pars thoracis and parts of the longissimus thoracis pars thoracis). In this endeavour, a separate sub-model which accounts for the shape of the torso by modelling it as a series of ellipses has been developed to model the lines of action of the oblique muscles. Likewise, a separate sub-model of the thoracolumbar fascia has also been developed which accounts for the middle and posterior layers of the fascia, and ensures that the line of action of the posterior layer is related to the size and shape of the erector spinae muscle. Published muscle activation data are used to enable the model to predict the maximum forces and moments that may be generated by the muscles. These predictions are validated against published experimental studies reporting maximum isometric moments for a variety of exertions. The model performs well for fiexion, extension and lateral bend exertions, but underpredicts the axial twist moments that may be developed. This discrepancy is most likely the result of differences between the experimental methodology and the modelled task. The application of the model is illustrated using examples of muscle injuries created by surgical procedures. The three examples used represent a posterior surgical approach to the spine, an anterior approach to the spine and uni-lateral total hip replacement surgery. Although the three examples simulate different muscle injuries, all demonstrate the production of significant asymmetrical moments and/or reduced joint compression following surgical intervention. This result has implications for patient rehabilitation and the potential for further injury to the spine. The development and application of the model has highlighted a number of areas where current knowledge is deficient. These include muscle activation levels for tasks in postures other than upright standing, changes in spinal kinematics following surgical procedures such as spinal fusion or fixation, and a general lack of understanding of how the body adjusts to muscle injuries with respect to muscle activation patterns and levels, rate of recovery from temporary injuries and compensatory actions by other muscles. Thus the comprehensive and innovative anatomical model which has been developed not only provides a tool to predict the forces and moments experienced by the intervertebral joints of the spine, but also highlights areas where further clinical research is required.

Combining electrospun scaffolds with electrosprayed hydrogels leads to three-dimensional cellularization of hybrid constructs

A common problem in the design of tissue engineered scaffolds using electrospun scaffolds is the poor cellular infiltration into the structure. To tackle this issue, three approaches to scaffold design using electrospinning were investigated: selective leaching of a water-soluble fiber phase (poly ethylene oxide (PEO) or gelatin), the use of micron-sized fibers as the scaffold, and a combination of micron-sized fibers with codeposition of a hyaluronic acid-derivative hydrogel, Heprasil. These designs were achieved by modifying a conventional electrospinning system with two charged capillaries and a rotating mandrel collector. Three types of scaffolds were fabricated: medical grade poly(epsilon-caprolactone)/collagen (mPCL/Col) cospun with PEO or gelatin, mPCL/Col meshes with micron-sized fibers, and mPCL/Col microfibers cosprayed with Heprasil. All three scaffold types supported attachment and proliferation of human fetal osteoblasts. However, selective leaching only marginally improved cellular infiltration when compared to meshes obtained by conventional electrospinning. Better cell penetration was seen in mPCL/Col microfibers, and this effect was more pronounced when Heprasil regions were present in the structure. Thus, such techniques could be further exploited for the design of cell permeable fibrous meshes for tissue engineering applications.

Internationalising the curriculum : attending to cultural diversity in teaching and learning across three faculties at QUT

This was a two-year project focusing on internationalising the curriculum within the context of the QUT Graduate Capabilities and teaching and learning issues within three Faculties. It was based on the assumption that there is an increased need for social and cultural responsiveness in curriculum that intersects local, national and global contexts and priorities. The Internationalising the Curriculum Project sought to challenge and support staff (academic and general) and students to engage with complex concepts of identity, values, awareness and sensitivity as they relate to internationalising the curriculum. The project took a case study approach to planning, implementation and evaluation in a way that complements and enhances platforms developed and emerging from the Indigenous Perspectives and cultural diversity projects already underway in Education, Creative Industries and QUT, Carseldine.

Factors associated with recurrence of venous leg ulcers : a survey and retrospective chart review

Background: Chronic venous leg ulcers have a significant impact on older individuals’ well-being and health care resources. Unfortunately after healing, up to 70% recur. ----- Objective: To examine the relationships between leg ulcer recurrence and physical activity, compression, nutrition, health, psychosocial indicators and self-care activities in order to provide information for preventive strategies. ----- Design: Survey and retrospective chart review Settings: Two metropolitan hospital and three community-based leg ulcer clinics. ----- Subjects: A sample of 122 community living patients with leg ulcer of venous aetiology which had healed between 12 and 36 months prior to the survey. ---- Methods: Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history and previous ulcer history and treatments; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, psychosocial measures, ulcer recurrences and history, compression and other self-care activities. All variables significantly associated with recurrence at the bivariate level were entered into a logistic regression model to determine their independent influences on recurrence. ----- Results: Median follow-up time was 24 months (range 12–40 months). Sixty-eight percent of participants had recurred. Bivariate analysis found recurrence was positively associated with ulcer duration, cardiac disease, a Body Mass Index ≤20, scoring as at-risk of malnutrition and depression; and negatively associated with increased physical activity, leg elevation, wearing Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or Class 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, and higher self-efficacy scores. After adjusting for all variables, an hour/day of leg elevation (OR=0.04, 95% CI=0.01–0.17), days/week in Class 2 or 3 compression hosiery (OR=0.53, 95% CI=0.34–0.81), Yale Physical Activity Survey score (OR=0.95, 95% CI=0.92–0.98), cardiac disease (OR=5.03, 95% CI=1.01–24.93) and General Self-Efficacy scores (OR=0.83, 95% CI=0.72–0.94) remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with recurrence. ----- Conclusions: Results indicate a history of cardiac disease is a risk factor for recurrence; while leg elevation, physical activity, compression hosiery and strategies to improve self-efficacy are likely to prevent recurrence.

Modeling corneal surfaces with three-dimensional basis functions

Purpose: To ascertain the effectiveness of object-centered three-dimensional representations for the modeling of corneal surfaces. Methods: Three-dimensional (3D) surface decomposition into series of basis functions including: (i) spherical harmonics, (ii) hemispherical harmonics, and (iii) 3D Zernike polynomials were considered and compared to the traditional viewer-centered representation of two-dimensional (2D) Zernike polynomial expansion for a range of retrospective videokeratoscopic height data from three clinical groups. The data were collected using the Medmont E300 videokeratoscope. The groups included 10 normal corneas with corneal astigmatism less than −0.75 D, 10 astigmatic corneas with corneal astigmatism between −1.07 D and 3.34 D (Mean = −1.83 D, SD = ±0.75 D), and 10 keratoconic corneas. Only data from the right eyes of the subjects were considered. Results: All object-centered decompositions led to significantly better fits to corneal surfaces (in terms of the RMS error values) than the corresponding 2D Zernike polynomial expansions with the same number of coefficients, for all considered corneal surfaces, corneal diameters (2, 4, 6, and 8 mm), and model orders (4th to 10th radial orders) The best results (smallest RMS fit error) were obtained with spherical harmonics decomposition which lead to about 22% reduction in the RMS fit error, as compared to the traditional 2D Zernike polynomials. Hemispherical harmonics and the 3D Zernike polynomials reduced the RMS fit error by about 15% and 12%, respectively. Larger reduction in RMS fit error was achieved for smaller corneral diameters and lower order fits. Conclusions: Object-centered 3D decompositions provide viable alternatives to traditional viewer-centered 2D Zernike polynomial expansion of a corneal surface. They achieve better fits to videokeratoscopic height data and could be particularly suited to the analysis of multiple corneal measurements, where there can be slight variations in the position of the cornea from one map acquisition to the next.

Three Carrier Ambiguity Resolutions : Generalised problems, models and solutions

In this paper, the problems of three carrier phase ambiguity resolution (TCAR) and position estimation (PE) are generalized as real time GNSS data processing problems for a continuously observing network on large scale. In order to describe these problems, a general linear equation system is presented to uniform various geometry-free, geometry-based and geometry-constrained TCAR models, along with state transition questions between observation times. With this general formulation, generalized TCAR solutions are given to cover different real time GNSS data processing scenarios, and various simplified integer solutions, such as geometry-free rounding and geometry-based LAMBDA solutions with single and multiple-epoch measurements. In fact, various ambiguity resolution (AR) solutions differ in the floating ambiguity estimation and integer ambiguity search processes, but their theoretical equivalence remains under the same observational systems models and statistical assumptions. TCAR performance benefits as outlined from the data analyses in some recent literatures are reviewed, showing profound implications for the future GNSS development from both technology and application perspectives.

Beyond charity : outlines of a jurisprudence for civil society

There is not a single, coherent, jurisprudence for civil society organisations. Pressure for a clearly enuciated body of law applying to the whole of this sector of society continues to increase. The rise of third sector scholarship, the retreat of the welfare state, the rediscovery of the concept of civil society and pressures to strengthen social capital have all contributed to an ongoing stream of inquiry into the laws that regulate and favour civil society organisations. There have been almost thirty inquiries over the last sixty years into the doctrine of charitable purpose in common law countries. Those inquiries have established that problems with the law applying to civil society organisations are rooted in the common law adopting a ‘technical’ definition of charitable purpose and the failure of this body of law to develop in response to societal changes. Even though it is now well recognised that problems with law reform stem from problems inherent in the doctrine of charitable purpose, statutory reforms have merely ‘bolted on’ additions to the flawed ‘technical’ definition. In this way the scope of operation of the law has been incrementally expanded to include a larger number of civil society organisations. This piecemeal approach continues the exclusion of most civil society organisations from the law of charities discourse, and fails to address the underlying jurisprudential problems. Comprehensive reform requires revisiting the foundational problems embedded in the doctrine of charitable purpose, being informed by recent scholarship, and a paradigm shift that extends the doctrine to include all civil society organisations. Scholarly inquiry into civil society organisations, particularly from within the discipline of neoclassical economics, has elucidated insights that can inform legal theory development. This theory development requires decoupling the two distinct functions performed by the doctrine of charitable purpose which are: setting the scope of regulation, and determining entitlement to favours, such as tax exemption. If the two different functions of the doctrine are considered separately in the light of theoretical insights from other disciplines, the architecture for a jurisprudence emerges that facilitates regulation, but does not necessarily favour all civil society organisations. Informed by that broader discourse it is argued that when determining the scope of regulation, civil society organisations are identified by reference to charitable purposes that are not technically defined. These charitable purposes are in essence purposes which are: Altruistic, for public Benefit, pursued without Coercion. These charitable puposes differentiate civil society organisations from organisations in the three other sectors namely; Business, which is manifest in lack of altruism; Government, which is characterised by coercion; and Family, which is characterised by benefits being private not public. When determining entitlement to favour, it is theorised that it is the extent or nature of the public benefit evident in the pursuit of a charitable purpose that justifies entitlement to favour. Entitlement to favour based on the extent of public benefit is the theoretically simpler – the greater the public benefit the greater the justification for favour. To be entitled to favour based on the nature of a purpose being charitable the purpose must fall within one of three categories developed from the first three heads of Pemsel’s case (the landmark categorisation case on taxation favour). The three categories proposed are: Dealing with Disadvantage, Encouraging Edification; and Facilitating Freedom. In this alternative paradigm a recast doctrine of charitable purpose underpins a jurisprudence for civil society in a way similar to the way contract underpins the jurisprudence for the business sector, the way that freedom from arbitrary coercion underpins the jurisprudence of the government sector and the way that equity within families underpins succession and family law jurisprudence for the family sector. This alternative architecture for the common law, developed from the doctrine of charitable purpose but inclusive of all civil society purposes, is argued to cover the field of the law applying to civil society organisations and warrants its own third space as a body of law between public law and private law in jurisprudence.

Two voices : the marginalised body as a voice & Imperfect Offerings a novel

This thesis investigates the phenomenon of self-harm as a form of political protest using two different, but complementary, methods of inquiry: a theoretical research project and a novel. Through these two approaches, to the same research problem, I examine how we can re-position the body that self-harms in political protest from weapon to voice; and in doing so find a path towards ethical and equitable dialogue between marginalised and mainstream communities. The theoretical, or academic, portion of the thesis examines self-harm as protest, positing these acts as a form of tactical selfharm, and acknowledge its emergence as a voice for the otherwise silenced in the public sphere. Through the use of phenomenology and feminist theory I examine the body as site for political agency, the circumstances which surround the use of the body for protest, and the reaction to tactical self-harm by the individual and the state. Using Bakhtin’s concept of dialogism, and the dialogic space I propose that by ‘hearing’ the body engaged in tactical selfharm we come closer to entering into an ethical dialogue with the otherwise silenced in our communities (locally, nationally and globally). The novel, Imperfect Offerings, explores these ideas in a fictional world, and allows me to put faces, names and lives to those who are compelled to harm their bodies to be heard. Also using Bakhtin’s framework I encourage a dialogue between the critical and creative parts of the thesis, challenging the traditional paradigm of creative PhD projects as creative work and exegesis.

Empirical derivation and validation of a wandering typology

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a wandering typology. ---------- DESIGN: Cross-sectional, correlational descriptive design. ---------- SETTING:: Twenty-two nursing homes and six assisted living facilities. ---------- PARTICIPANTS: One hundred forty-two residents with dementia who spoke English, met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for dementia, scored less than 24 on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), were ambulatory (with or without assistive device), and maintained a stable regime of psychotropic medications were studied. ---------- MEASUREMENTS: Data on wandering were collected using direct observations, plotted serially according to rate and duration to yield 21 parameters, and reduced through factor analysis to four components: high rate, high duration, low to moderate rate and duration, and time of day. Other measures included the MMSE, Minimum Data Set 2.0 mobility items, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale—Geriatric, and tympanic body temperature readings. ---------- RESULTS: Three groups of wanderers were identified through cluster analysis: classic, moderate, and subclinical. MMSE, mobility, and cardiac and upper and lower gastrointestinal problems differed between groups of wanderers and in comparison with nonwanderers. ---------- CONCLUSION: Results have implications for improving identification of wanderers and treatment of possible contributing factors.