Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Exploration and optimization of user experience in viewing videos on a mobile phone

Compared with viewing videos on PCs or TVs, mobile users have different experiences in viewing videos on a mobile phone due to different device features such as screen size and distinct usage contexts. To understand how mobile user’s viewing experience is impacted, we conducted a field user study with 42 participants in two typical usage contexts using a custom-designed iPhone application. With user’s acceptance of mobile video quality as the index, the study addresses four influence aspects of user experiences, including context, content type, encoding parameters and user profiles. Accompanying the quantitative method (acceptance assessment), we used a qualitative interview method to obtain a deeper understanding of a user’s assessment criteria and to support the quantitative results from a user’s perspective. Based on the results from data analysis, we advocate two user-driven strategies to adaptively provide an acceptable quality and to predict a good user experience, respectively. There are two main contributions from this paper. Firstly, the field user study allows a consideration of more influencing factors into the research on user experience of mobile video. And these influences are further demonstrated by user’s opinions. Secondly, the proposed strategies — user-driven acceptance threshold adaptation and user experience prediction — will be valuable in mobile video delivery for optimizing user experience.