237 resultados para Simulation and modelling
Resumo:
Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.
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In this work we discuss the effects of white and coloured noise perturbations on the parameters of a mathematical model of bacteriophage infection introduced by Beretta and Kuang in [Math. Biosc. 149 (1998) 57]. We numerically simulate the strong solutions of the resulting systems of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SDEs), with respect to the global error, by means of numerical methods of both Euler-Taylor expansion and stochastic Runge-Kutta type.
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Traditionally, conceptual modelling of business processes involves the use of visual grammars for the representation of, amongst other things, activities, choices and events. These grammars, while very useful for experts, are difficult to understand by naive stakeholders. Annotations of such process models have been developed to assist in understanding aspects of these grammars via map-based approaches, and further work has looked at forms of 3D conceptual models. However, no one has sought to embed the conceptual models into a fully featured 3D world, using the spatial annotations to explicate the underlying model clearly. In this paper, we present an approach to conceptual process model visualisation that enhances a 3D virtual world with annotations representing process constructs, facilitating insight into the developed model. We then present a prototype implementation of a 3D Virtual BPMN Editor that embeds BPMN process models into a 3D world. We show how this gives extra support for tasks performed by the conceptual modeller, providing better process model communication to stakeholders..
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Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.
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These National Guidelines and Case Studies for Digital Modelling are the outcomes from one of a number of Building Information Modelling (BIM)-related projects undertaken by the CRC for Construction Innovation. Since the CRC opened its doors in 2001, the industry has seen a rapid increase in interest in BIM, and widening adoption. These guidelines and case studies are thus very timely, as the industry moves to model-based working and starts to share models in a new context called integrated practice. Governments, both federal and state, and in New Zealand are starting to outline the role they might take, so that in contrast to the adoption of 2D CAD in the early 90s, we ensure that a national, industry-wide benefit results from this new paradigm of working. Section 1 of the guidelines give us an overview of BIM: how it affects our current mode of working, what we need to do to move to fully collaborative model-based facility development. The role of open standards such as IFC is described as a mechanism to support new processes, and make the extensive design and construction information available to asset operators and managers. Digital collaboration modes, types of models, levels of detail, object properties and model management complete this section. It will be relevant for owners, managers and project leaders as well as direct users of BIM. Section 2 provides recommendations and guides for key areas of model creation and development, and the move to simulation and performance measurement. These are the more practical parts of the guidelines developed for design professionals, BIM managers, technical staff and ‘in the field’ workers. The guidelines are supported by six case studies including a summary of lessons learnt about implementing BIM in Australian building projects. A key aspect of these publications is the identification of a number of important industry actions: the need for BIM-compatible product information and a national context for classifying product data; the need for an industry agreement and setting process-for-process definition; and finally, the need to ensure a national standard for sharing data between all of the participants in the facility-development process.
Resumo:
These National Guidelines and Case Studies for Digital Modelling are the outcomes from one of a number of Building Information Modelling (BIM)-related projects undertaken by the CRC for Construction Innovation. Since the CRC opened its doors in 2001, the industry has seen a rapid increase in interest in BIM, and widening adoption. These guidelines and case studies are thus very timely, as the industry moves to model-based working and starts to share models in a new context called integrated practice. Governments, both federal and state, and in New Zealand are starting to outline the role they might take, so that in contrast to the adoption of 2D CAD in the early 90s, we ensure that a national, industry-wide benefit results from this new paradigm of working. Section 1 of the guidelines give us an overview of BIM: how it affects our current mode of working, what we need to do to move to fully collaborative model-based facility development. The role of open standards such as IFC is described as a mechanism to support new processes, and make the extensive design and construction information available to asset operators and managers. Digital collaboration modes, types of models, levels of detail, object properties and model management complete this section. It will be relevant for owners, managers and project leaders as well as direct users of BIM. Section 2 provides recommendations and guides for key areas of model creation and development, and the move to simulation and performance measurement. These are the more practical parts of the guidelines developed for design professionals, BIM managers, technical staff and ‘in the field’ workers. The guidelines are supported by six case studies including a summary of lessons learnt about implementing BIM in Australian building projects. A key aspect of these publications is the identification of a number of important industry actions: the need for BIMcompatible product information and a national context for classifying product data; the need for an industry agreement and setting process-for-process definition; and finally, the need to ensure a national standard for sharing data between all of the participants in the facility-development process.
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The Inflatable Rescue Boat (IRB) is arguably the most effective rescue tool used by the Australian surf lifesavers. The exceptional features of high mobility and rapid response have enabled it to become an icon on Australia's popular beaches. However, the IRB's extensive use within an environment that is as rugged as it is spectacular, has led it to become a danger to those who risk their lives to save others. Epidemiological research revealed lower limb injuries to be predominant, particularly the right leg. The common types of injuries were fractures and dislocations, as well as muscle or ligament strains and tears. The concern expressed by Surf Life Saving Queensland (SLSQ) and Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA) led to a biomechanical investigation into this unique and relatively unresearched field. The aim of the research was to identify the causes of injury and propose processes that may reduce the instances and severity of injury to surf lifesavers during IRB operation. Following a review of related research, a design analysis of the craft was undertaken as an introduction to the craft, its design and uses. The mechanical characteristics of the vessel were then evaluated and the accelerations applied to the crew in the IRB were established through field tests. The data were then combined and modelled in the 3-D mathematical modelling and simulation package, MADYMO. A tool was created to compare various scenarios of boat design and methods of operation to determine possible mechanisms to reduce injuries. The results of this study showed that under simulated wave loading the boats flex around a pivot point determined by the position of the hinge in the floorboard. It was also found that the accelerations experienced by the crew exhibited similar characteristics to road vehicle accidents. Staged simulations indicated the attributes of an optimum foam in terms of thickness and density. Likewise, modelling of the boat and crew produced simulations that predicted realistic crew response to tested variables. Unfortunately, the observed lack of adherence to the SLSA footstrap Standard has impeded successful epidemiological and modelling outcomes. If uniformity of boat setup can be assured then epidemiological studies will be able to highlight the influence of implementing changes to the boat design. In conclusion, the research provided a tool to successfully link the epidemiology and injury diagnosis to the mechanical engineering design through the use of biomechanics. This was a novel application of the mathematical modelling software MADYMO. Other craft can also be investigated in this manner to provide solutions to the problem identified and therefore reduce risk of injury for the operators.
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AC motors are largely used in a wide range of modern systems, from household appliances to automated industry applications such as: ventilations systems, fans, pumps, conveyors and machine tool drives. Inverters are widely used in industrial and commercial applications due to the growing need for speed control in ASD systems. Fast switching transients and the common mode voltage, in interaction with parasitic capacitive couplings, may cause many unwanted problems in the ASD applications. These include shaft voltage and leakage currents. One of the inherent characteristics of Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) techniques is the generation of the common mode voltage, which is defined as the voltage between the electrical neutral of the inverter output and the ground. Shaft voltage can cause bearing currents when it exceeds the amount of breakdown voltage level of the thin lubricant film between the inner and outer rings of the bearing. This phenomenon is the main reason for early bearing failures. A rapid development in power switches technology has lead to a drastic decrement of switching rise and fall times. Because there is considerable capacitance between the stator windings and the frame, there can be a significant capacitive current (ground current escaping to earth through stray capacitors inside a motor) if the common mode voltage has high frequency components. This current leads to noises and Electromagnetic Interferences (EMI) issues in motor drive systems. These problems have been dealt with using a variety of methods which have been reported in the literature. However, cost and maintenance issues have prevented these methods from being widely accepted. Extra cost or rating of the inverter switches is usually the price to pay for such approaches. Thus, the determination of cost-effective techniques for shaft and common mode voltage reduction in ASD systems, with the focus on the first step of the design process, is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research – including a description of the research problem, the literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers – is presented in Chapter 1. Electrical power generation from renewable energy sources, such as wind energy systems, has become a crucial issue because of environmental problems and a predicted future shortage of traditional energy sources. Thus, Chapter 2 focuses on the shaft voltage analysis of stator-fed induction generators (IG) and Doubly Fed Induction Generators DFIGs in wind turbine applications. This shaft voltage analysis includes: topologies, high frequency modelling, calculation and mitigation techniques. A back-to-back AC-DC-AC converter is investigated in terms of shaft voltage generation in a DFIG. Different topologies of LC filter placement are analysed in an effort to eliminate the shaft voltage. Different capacitive couplings exist in the motor/generator structure and any change in design parameters affects the capacitive couplings. Thus, an appropriate design for AC motors should lead to the smallest possible shaft voltage. Calculation of the shaft voltage based on different capacitive couplings, and an investigation of the effects of different design parameters are discussed in Chapter 3. This is achieved through 2-D and 3-D finite element simulation and experimental analysis. End-winding parameters of the motor are also effective factors in the calculation of the shaft voltage and have not been taken into account in previous reported studies. Calculation of the end-winding capacitances is rather complex because of the diversity of end winding shapes and the complexity of their geometry. A comprehensive analysis of these capacitances has been carried out with 3-D finite element simulations and experimental studies to determine their effective design parameters. These are documented in Chapter 4. Results of this analysis show that, by choosing appropriate design parameters, it is possible to decrease the shaft voltage and resultant bearing current in the primary stage of generator/motor design without using any additional active and passive filter-based techniques. The common mode voltage is defined by a switching pattern and, by using the appropriate pattern; the common mode voltage level can be controlled. Therefore, any PWM pattern which eliminates or minimizes the common mode voltage will be an effective shaft voltage reduction technique. Thus, common mode voltage reduction of a three-phase AC motor supplied with a single-phase diode rectifier is the focus of Chapter 5. The proposed strategy is mainly based on proper utilization of the zero vectors. Multilevel inverters are also used in ASD systems which have more voltage levels and switching states, and can provide more possibilities to reduce common mode voltage. A description of common mode voltage of multilevel inverters is investigated in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 investigates the elimination techniques of the shaft voltage in a DFIG based on the methods presented in the literature by the use of simulation results. However, it could be shown that every solution to reduce the shaft voltage in DFIG systems has its own characteristics, and these have to be taken into account in determining the most effective strategy. Calculation of the capacitive coupling and electric fields between the outer and inner races and the balls at different motor speeds in symmetrical and asymmetrical shaft and balls positions is discussed in Chapter 8. The analysis is carried out using finite element simulations to determine the conditions which will increase the probability of high rates of bearing failure due to current discharges through the balls and races.
Resumo:
Mechanical control systems have become a part of our everyday life. Systems such as automobiles, robot manipulators, mobile robots, satellites, buildings with active vibration controllers and air conditioning systems, make life easier and safer, as well as help us explore the world we live in and exploit it’s available resources. In this chapter, we examine a specific example of a mechanical control system; the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). Our contribution to the advancement of AUV research is in the area of guidance and control. We present innovative techniques to design and implement control strategies that consider the optimization of time and/or energy consumption. Recent advances in robotics, control theory, portable energy sources and automation increase our ability to create more intelligent robots, and allows us to conduct more explorations by use of autonomous vehicles. This facilitates access to higher risk areas, longer time underwater, and more efficient exploration as compared to human occupied vehicles. The use of underwater vehicles is expanding in every area of ocean science. Such vehicles are used by oceanographers, archaeologists, geologists, ocean engineers, and many others. These vehicles are designed to be agile, versatile and robust, and thus, their usage has gone from novelty to necessity for any ocean expedition.
Resumo:
AIMS This paper reports on the implementation of a research project that trials an educational strategy implemented over six months of an undergraduate third year nursing curriculum. This project aims to explore the effectiveness of ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for learning clinical reasoning for students in simulated clinical settings. BACKGROUND Nurses are required to apply and utilise critical thinking skills to enable clinical reasoning and problem solving in the clinical setting [1]. Nursing students are expected to develop and display clinical reasoning skills in practice, but may struggle articulating reasons behind decisions about patient care. For students learning to manage complex clinical situations, teaching approaches are required that make these instinctive cognitive processes explicit and clear [2-5]. In line with professional expectations, nursing students in third year at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) are expected to display clinical reasoning skills in practice. This can be a complex proposition for students in practice situations, particularly as the degree of uncertainty or decision complexity increases [6-7]. The ‘think aloud’ approach is an innovative learning/teaching method which can create an environment suitable for developing clinical reasoning skills in students [4, 8]. This project aims to use the ‘think aloud’ strategy within a simulation context to provide a safe learning environment in which third year students are assisted to uncover cognitive approaches that best assist them to make effective patient care decisions, and improve their confidence, clinical reasoning and active critical reflection on their practice. MEHODS In semester 2 2011 at QUT, third year nursing students will undertake high fidelity simulation, some for the first time commencing in September of 2011. There will be two cohorts for strategy implementation (group 1= use think aloud as a strategy within the simulation, group 2= not given a specific strategy outside of nursing assessment frameworks) in relation to problem solving patient needs. Students will be briefed about the scenario, given a nursing handover, placed into a simulation group and an observer group, and the facilitator/teacher will run the simulation from a control room, and not have contact (as a ‘teacher’) with students during the simulation. Then debriefing will occur as a whole group outside of the simulation room where the session can be reviewed on screen. The think aloud strategy will be described to students in their pre-simulation briefing and allow for clarification of this strategy at this time. All other aspects of the simulations remain the same, (resources, suggested nursing assessment frameworks, simulation session duration, size of simulation teams, preparatory materials). RESULTS Methodology of the project and the challenges of implementation will be the focus of this presentation. This will include ethical considerations in designing the project, recruitment of students and implementation of a voluntary research project within a busy educational curriculum which in third year targets 669 students over two campuses. CONCLUSIONS In an environment of increasingly constrained clinical placement opportunities, exploration of alternate strategies to improve critical thinking skills and develop clinical reasoning and problem solving for nursing students is imperative in preparing nurses to respond to changing patient needs. References 1. Lasater, K., High-fidelity simulation and the development of clinical judgement: students' experiences. Journal of Nursing Education, 2007. 46(6): p. 269-276. 2. Lapkin, S., et al., Effectiveness of patient simulation manikins in teaching clinical reasoning skills to undergraduate nursing students: a systematic review. Clinical Simulation in Nursing, 2010. 6(6): p. e207-22. 3. Kaddoura, M.P.C.M.S.N.R.N., New Graduate Nurses' Perceptions of the Effects of Clinical Simulation on Their Critical Thinking, Learning, and Confidence. The Journal of Continuing Education in Nursing, 2010. 41(11): p. 506. 4. Banning, M., The think aloud approach as an educational tool to develop and assess clinical reasoning in undergraduate students. Nurse Education Today, 2008. 28: p. 8-14. 5. Porter-O'Grady, T., Profound change:21st century nursing. Nursing Outlook, 2001. 49(4): p. 182-186. 6. Andersson, A.K., M. Omberg, and M. Svedlund, Triage in the emergency department-a qualitative study of the factors which nurses consider when making decisions. Nursing in Critical Care, 2006. 11(3): p. 136-145. 7. O'Neill, E.S., N.M. Dluhy, and C. Chin, Modelling novice clinical reasoning for a computerized decision support system. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 2005. 49(1): p. 68-77. 8. Lee, J.E. and N. Ryan-Wenger, The "Think Aloud" seminar for teaching clinical reasoning: a case study of a child with pharyngitis. J Pediatr Health Care, 1997. 11(3): p. 101-10.
Resumo:
Electricity has been the major source of power in most railway systems. Reliable, efficient and safe power distribution to the trains is vitally important to the overall quality of railway service. Like any large-scale engineering system, design, operation and planning of traction power systems rely heavily on computer simulation. This paper reviews the major features on modelling and the general practices for traction power system simulation; and introduces the development of the latest simulation approach with discussions on simulation results and practical applications. Remarks will also be given on the future challenges on traction power system simulation.
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Autonomous guidance of agricultural vehiclesis vital as mechanized farming production becomes more prevalent. It is crucial that tractor-trailers are guided with accuracy in both lateral and longitudinal directions, whilst being affected by large disturbance forces, or slips, owing to uncertain and undulating terrain. Successful research has been concentrated on trajectory control which can provide longitudinal and lateral accuracy if the vehicle moves without sliding, and the trailer is passive. In this paper, the problem of robust trajectory tracking along straight and circular paths of a tractor-steerable trailer is addressed. By utilizing a robust combination of backstepping and nonlinear PI control, a robust, nonlinear controller is proposed. For vehicles subjected to sliding, the proposed controller makes the lateral deviations and the orientation errors of the tractor and trailer converge to a neighborhood near the origin. Simulation results are presented to illustrate that the suggested controller ensures precise trajectory tracking in the presence of slip.
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Several studies of the surface effect on bending properties of a nanowire (NW) have been conducted. However, these analyses are mainly based on theoretical predictions, and there is seldom integration study in combination between theoretical predictions and simulation results. Thus, based on the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and different modified beam theories, a comprehensive theoretical and numerical study for bending properties of nanowires considering surface/intrinsic stress effects and axial extension effect is conducted in this work. The discussion begins from the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and Timoshenko beam theory augmented with surface effect. It is found that when the NW possesses a relatively small cross-sectional size, these two theories cannot accurately interpret the true surface effect. The incorporation of axial extension effect into Euler-Bernoulli beam theory provides a nonlinear solution that agrees with the nonlinear-elastic experimental and MD results. However, it is still found inaccurate when the NW cross-sectional size is relatively small. Such inaccuracy is also observed for the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory augmented with both contributions from surface effect and axial extension effect. A comprehensive model for completely considering influences from surface stress, intrinsic stress, and axial extension is then proposed, which leads to good agreement with MD simulation results. It is thus concluded that, for NWs with a relatively small cross-sectional size, a simple consideration of surface stress effect is inappropriate, and a comprehensive consideration of the intrinsic stress effect is required.
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Based on the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and the classical Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, a fundamental study of the vibrational performance of the Ag nanowire (NW) is carried out. A comprehensive analysis of the quality (Q)-factor, natural frequency, beat vibration, as well as high vibration mode is presented. Two excitation approaches, i.e., velocity excitation and displacement excitation, have been successfully implemented to achieve the vibration of NWs. Upon these two kinds of excitations, consistent results are obtained, i.e., the increase of the initial excitation amplitude will lead to a decrease to the Q-factor, and moderate plastic deformation could increase the first natural frequency. Meanwhile, the beat vibration driven by a single relatively large excitation or two uniform excitations in both two lateral directions is observed. It is concluded that the nonlinear changing trend of external energy magnitude does not necessarily mean a nonconstant Q-factor. In particular, the first order natural frequency of the Ag NW is observed to decrease with the increase of temperature. Furthermore, comparing with the predictions by Euler- Bernoulli beam theory, the MD simulation provides a larger and smaller first vibration frequencies for the clamped-clamped and clamped-free thin Ag NWs, respectively. Additionally, for thin NWs, the first order natural frequency exhibits a parabolic relationship with the excitation magnitudes. The frequencies of the higher vibration modes tend to be low in comparison to Euler-Bernoulli beam theory predictions. A combined initial excitation is proposed which is capable to drive the NW under a multi-mode vibration and arrows the coexistence of all the following low vibration modes. This work sheds lights on the better understanding of the mechanical properties of NWs and benefits the increasing utilities of NWs in diverse nano-electronic devices.