A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Evaluation of the Airdrie Sheriff Youth Court Pilot

A pilot Youth Court was introduced at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Its objectives were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. An evaluation of the pilot commissioned by the Scottish Executive found that it appeared in many respects to be working well. It was a tightly run court that dealt with a heavy volume of business. With its fast track procedures and additional resources it was regarded as a model to be aspired to in all summary court business. Whether a dedicated Youth Court was required or whether procedural improvements would have been possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was, however, more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Court should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Court was intended to avoid the risk of net-widening and its consequences for young people.

Evaluation of the Hamilton Youth Court Pilot 2003-2005

Pilot Youth Courts were introduced at Hamilton Sheriff Court in June 2003 and at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Although introduced as one of a number of measures aimed at responding more effectively to youth crime (including young people dealt with through the Children’s Hearings System), the Youth Courts were intended for young people who would otherwise have been dealt with in the adult Sheriff Summary Court. The objectives of the pilot Youth Courts were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. Evaluation of the Hamilton and Airdrie Sheriff Youth Court pilots suggested that they had been successful in meeting the objectives set for them by the Youth Court Feasibility Group. Both were tightly run courts that dealt with a heavy volume of business. The particular strengths of the Youth Court model over previous arrangements included the fast-tracking of young people to and through the court, the reduction in trials, the availability of a wider range of resources and services for young people and ongoing judicial review. The successful operation of the pilot Youth Courts was dependent upon effective teamwork among the relevant agencies and professionals concerned. Good information sharing, liaison and communication appeared to exist across agencies and the procedures that were in place to facilitate the sharing of information seemed to be working well. This was also facilitated by the presence of dedicated staff within agencies, resulting in clear channels of communication, and in the opportunity provided by the multi-agency Implementation Groups to identify and address operational issues on an ongoing basis. However, whether Youth Courts are required in Scotland or whether procedural improvement were possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Courts should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Courts were intended. This suggested the need for further discussion of Youth Court targeting and its potential consequences among the various agencies concerned.

Brisbane Airport Atelier : Team Delta

This architectural and urban design project was conducted as part of the Brisbane Airport Corporations master-planning Atelier, run in conjunction with City Lab. This creation and innovation event brought together approximately 80 designers, associated professionals, and both local and state government representatives to research concepts for future development and planning of the Brisbane airport site. The Team Delta research project explored the development of a new precinct cluster around the existing international terminal building; with a view of reinforcing the sense of place and arrival. The development zone explores the options of developing a subtropical character through landscape elements such as open plazas, tourist attractions, links to existing adjacent waterways, and localised rapid transport options. The proposal tests the possibilities of developing a cultural hub in conjunction with transport infrastructure and the airport terminal(s).

Quality metrics for assessing security-critical computer programs

Existing secure software development principles tend to focus on coding vulnerabilities, such as buffer or integer overflows, that apply to individual program statements, or issues associated with the run-time environment, such as component isolation. Here we instead consider software security from the perspective of potential information flow through a program’s object-oriented module structure. In particular, we define a set of quantifiable "security metrics" which allow programmers to quickly and easily assess the overall security of a given source code program or object-oriented design. Although measuring quality attributes of object-oriented programs for properties such as maintainability and performance has been well-covered in the literature, metrics which measure the quality of information security have received little attention. Moreover, existing securityrelevant metrics assess a system either at a very high level, i.e., the whole system, or at a fine level of granularity, i.e., with respect to individual statements. These approaches make it hard and expensive to recognise a secure system from an early stage of development. Instead, our security metrics are based on well-established compositional properties of object-oriented programs (i.e., data encapsulation, cohesion, coupling, composition, extensibility, inheritance and design size), combined with data flow analysis principles that trace potential information flow between high- and low-security system variables. We first define a set of metrics to assess the security quality of a given object-oriented system based on its design artifacts, allowing defects to be detected at an early stage of development. We then extend these metrics to produce a second set applicable to object-oriented program source code. The resulting metrics make it easy to compare the relative security of functionallyequivalent system designs or source code programs so that, for instance, the security of two different revisions of the same system can be compared directly. This capability is further used to study the impact of specific refactoring rules on system security more generally, at both the design and code levels. By measuring the relative security of various programs refactored using different rules, we thus provide guidelines for the safe application of refactoring steps to security-critical programs. Finally, to make it easy and efficient to measure a system design or program’s security, we have also developed a stand-alone software tool which automatically analyses and measures the security of UML designs and Java program code. The tool’s capabilities are demonstrated by applying it to a number of security-critical system designs and Java programs. Notably, the validity of the metrics is demonstrated empirically through measurements that confirm our expectation that program security typically improves as bugs are fixed, but worsens as new functionality is added.

People, content, location : sweet spotting urban screens for situated engagement

A growing body of research is looking at ways to bring the processes and benefits of online deliberation to the places they are about and in turn allow a larger, targeted proportion of the urban public to have a voice, be heard, and engage in questions of city planning and design. Seeking to take advantage of the civic opportunities of situated engagement through public screens and mobile devices, our research informed a public urban screen content application DIS that we deployed and evaluated in a wide range of real world public and urban environments. For example, it is currently running on the renowned urban screen at Federation Square in Melbourne. We analysed the data from these user studies within a conceptual framework that positions situated engagement across three key parameters: people, content, and location. We propose a way to identify the sweet spot within the nexus of these parameters to help deploy and run interactive systems to maximise the quality of the situated engagement for civic and related deliberation purposes.

Virginia's secret

This catalogue essay was written to accompany the launch exhibition of LEVELari in Brisbane. It discusses the history of women-only exhibition spaces in Australia and contextualises LEVELari's place within that tradition.

Current research in risk-aware business process management : overview, comparison, and gap analysis

The management of risks in business processes has been a subject of active research in the past few years. Many benefits can potentially be obtained by integrating the two traditionally-separated fields of risk management and business process management, including the ability to minimize risks in business processes (by design) and to mitigate risks at run time. In the past few years, an increasing amount of research aimed at delivering such an integrated system has been proposed. However, these research efforts vary in terms of their scope, goals, and functionality. Through systematic collection and evaluation of relevant literature, this paper compares and classifies current approaches in the area of risk-aware business process management in order to identify and explain relevant research gaps. The process through which relevant literature is collected, filtered, and evaluated is also detailed.

"Participation" in participatory design research

This thesis is about defining participation in the context of fostering research cohesion in the field of Participatory Design. The systematic and incremental building of new knowledge is the process by which science and research is advanced. This process requires a certain type of cohesion in the way research is undertaken for new knowledge to be built from the knowledge provided by previous projects and research. To support this process and to foster research cohesion three conditions are necessary. These conditions are: common ground between practitioners, problem-space positioning, and adherence to clear research criteria. The challenge of fostering research cohesion in Participatory Design is apparent in at least four themes raised in the literature: the role of politics within Participatory Design epistemology, the role of participation, design with users, and the ability to translate theory into practice. These four thematic challenges frame the context which the research gap is situated. These themes are also further investigated and the research gap – a general lack of research cohesion – along with one avenue for addressing this gap – a clear and operationalizable definition for participation – are identified. The intended contribution of this thesis is to develop a framework and visual tool to address this research gap. In particular, an initial approximation for a clear and operationalizable definition for participation will be proposed such that it can be used within the field of Participatory Design to run projects and foster research cohesion. In pursuit of this contribution, a critical lens is developed and used to analyse some of the principles and practices of Participatory Design that are regarded as foundational. This lens addresses how to define participation in a way that adheres to basic principles of scientific rigour – namely, ensuring that the elements of a theory are operationalizable, falsifiable, generalizable, and useful, and it also treats participation as a construct rather than treating the notion of participation as a variable. A systematic analysis is performed using this lens on the principles and practices that are considered foundational within the field. From this analysis, three components of the participation construct – impact, influence, and agency – are identified. These components are then broken down into two constituent variables each (six in all) and represented visually. Impact is described as the relationship between the quality and use of information. Influence is described as the relationship between the amount and scope of decision making. Agency is described as the relationship between the motivation of the participant and the solidarity of the group. Thus, as a construct, participation is described as the relationship between a participant’s impact, influence, and agency. In the concluding section, the value of this participation construct is explored for its utility in enhancing project work and fostering research cohesion. Three items of potential value that emerge are: the creation of a visual tool through the representation of these six constituent variables in one image; the elaboration of a common language for researchers based on the six constituent variables identified; and the ability to systematically identify and remedy participation gaps throughout the life of the project. While future research exploring the applicability of the participation construct in real world projects is necessary, it is intended that this initial approximation of a participation construct in the form of the visual tool will serve as the basis for a cohesive and rigorous discussion about participation in Participatory Design.

Resourcing Early Learners : New Networks, New Actors

The landscape of early childhood education and care is changing. Governments world-wide are assuming increasing authority in relation to child-rearing in the years before school entry, beyond the traditional role in assisting parents to do the best they can by their children. As part of a social agenda aimed at forming citizens well prepared to play an active part in a globalised knowledge economy, the idea of ‘early learning’ expresses the necessity of engaging caregivers right from the start of children’s lives. Nichols, Rowsell, Rainbird, and Nixon investigate this trend over three years, in two countries, and three contrasting regions, by setting themselves the task of tracing every service and agent offering resources under the banner of early learning. Far from a dry catalogue, the study involves in-depth ethnographic research in fascinating spaces such as a church-run centre for African refugee women and children, a state-of-the-art community library and an Australian country town. Included is an unprecedented inventory of an entire suburban mall. Richly visually documented, the study employs emerging methods such as Google-mapping to trace the travels of actual parents as they search for particular resources. Each chapter features a context investigated in this large, international study: the library, the mall, the clinic, and the church. The author team unravels new spaces and new networks at work in early childhood literacy and development.

Get Into Vocational Education (GIVE) Gladstone Pilot Project : Final Report to Rio Tinto Alcan Community Fund

This report describes the Get Into Vocational Education (GIVE) pilot project run at Gladstone Central State School from September to December 2010. The report describes the aims, budget, and timeline of the project and its findings in relation to each of the three major objectives of the project, namely (a) build awareness of, interest in, and familiarity with trades as a future vocation and opportunity for advancement; (b) enhance literacy, numeracy and science knowledge and performance; and (c) provide motivation and engagement to stay on at school and build towards a productive future. The clear findings of the GIVE Gladstone Year 4 pilot project are that, for students at risk in terms of school attendance, engagement and learning: (1) awareness of trades, literacy, mathematics and science knowledge, and motivation and engagement all improve and, in most cases, dramatically improve, in the GIVE structure; (2) this improvement involves transfer to situations and concepts not directly addressed in the project; and (3) the crucial factor in the GIVE structure that gives the improvement is the integration of classroom work with trades experiences and not the classroom and trades experiences themselves (although it is better if these are good).

Get Into Vocational Education (GIVE) Rockhampton Region Pilot Project : Final Report to The John Villiers Trust

This report describes the Get Into Vocational Education (GIVE) pilot project run in the Rockhampton Region at two schools in 2011. The report includes a description of the project, including its aims, budget, and timeline; and the findings in relation to each of the three major objectives of the project, namely (a) build awareness of, interest in, and familiarity with, trades as a future vocation and opportunity for advancement; (b) enhance literacy, numeracy and science knowledge and performance; and (c) provide motivation and engagement to stay on at school and build towards a productive future. The clear findings of the GIVE Rockhampton Region pilot project are that, for students at risk in terms of school attendance, engagement and learning: (1) awareness of trade practices in horticulture, hospitality, retail, and design and engineering, literacy, mathematics and science knowledge, and motivation and engagement all improve and, in most cases, dramatically improve, in the GIVE structure; and (2) the crucial factor in the GIVE structure that gives the improvement is the integration of classroom work with trades experiences and not the classroom and trades experiences themselves (although it is better if these are good).

Right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at signalized intersections : mixed logit analysis

Motorcycles are particularly vulnerable in right-angle crashes at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to explore how variations in roadway characteristics, environmental factors, traffic factors, maneuver types, human factors as well as driver demographics influence the right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at intersections. The problem is modeled using a mixed logit model with a binary choice category formulation to differentiate how an at-fault vehicle collides with a not-at-fault motorcycle in comparison to other collision types. The mixed logit formulation allows randomness in the parameters and hence takes into account the underlying heterogeneities potentially inherent in driver behavior, and other unobserved variables. A likelihood ratio test reveals that the mixed logit model is indeed better than the standard logit model. Night time riding shows a positive association with the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Moreover, motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable on single lane roads, on the curb and median lanes of multi-lane roads, and on one-way and two-way road type relative to divided-highway. Drivers who deliberately run red light as well as those who are careless towards motorcyclists especially when making turns at intersections increase the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Drivers appear more restrained when there is a passenger onboard and this has decreased the crash potential with motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras also significantly decreases right-angle crash vulnerabilities of motorcyclists. The findings of this study would be helpful in developing more targeted countermeasures for traffic enforcement, driver/rider training and/or education, safety awareness programs to reduce the vulnerability of motorcyclists.

Knowledge-Intensive Business Processes: Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business Processes [CEUR Workshop Proceedings, Volume 861]

Nowadays, Workflow Management Systems (WfMSs) and, more generally, Process Management Systems (PMPs) are process-aware Information Systems (PAISs), are widely used to support many human organizational activities, ranging from well-understood, relatively stable and structures processes (supply chain management, postal delivery tracking, etc.) to processes that are more complicated, less structured and may exhibit a high degree of variation (health-care, emergency management, etc.). Every aspect of a business process involves a certain amount of knowledge which may be complex depending on the domain of interest. The adequate representation of this knowledge is determined by the modeling language used. Some processes behave in a way that is well understood, predictable and repeatable: the tasks are clearly delineated and the control flow is straightforward. Recent discussions, however, illustrate the increasing demand for solutions for knowledge-intensive processes, where these characteristics are less applicable. The actors involved in the conduct of a knowledge-intensive process have to deal with a high degree of uncertainty. Tasks may be hard to perform and the order in which they need to be performed may be highly variable. Modeling knowledge-intensive processes can be complex as it may be hard to capture at design-time what knowledge is available at run-time. In realistic environments, for example, actors lack important knowledge at execution time or this knowledge can become obsolete as the process progresses. Even if each actor (at some point) has perfect knowledge of the world, it may not be certain of its beliefs at later points in time, since tasks by other actors may change the world without those changes being perceived. Typically, a knowledge-intensive process cannot be adequately modeled by classical, state of the art process/workflow modeling approaches. In some respect there is a lack of maturity when it comes to capturing the semantic aspects involved, both in terms of reasoning about them. The main focus of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business processes (KiBP 2012) was investigating how techniques from different fields, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Knowledge Representation (KR), Business Process Management (BPM), Service Oriented Computing (SOC), etc., can be combined with the aim of improving the modeling and the enactment phases of a knowledge-intensive process. The 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business process (KiBP 2012) was held as part of the program of the 2012 Knowledge Representation & Reasoning International Conference (KR 2012) in Rome, Italy, in June 2012. The workshop was hosted by the Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Automatica e Gestionale Antonio Ruberti of Sapienza Universita di Roma, with financial support of the University, through grant 2010-C26A107CN9 TESTMED, and the EU Commission through the projects FP7-25888 Greener Buildings and FP7-257899 Smart Vortex. This volume contains the 5 papers accepted and presented at the workshop. Each paper was reviewed by three members of the internationally renowned Program Committee. In addition, a further paper was invted for inclusion in the workshop proceedings and for presentation at the workshop. There were two keynote talks, one by Marlon Dumas (Institute of Computer Science, University of Tartu, Estonia) on "Integrated Data and Process Management: Finally?" and the other by Yves Lesperance (Department of Computer Science and Engineering, York University, Canada) on "A Logic-Based Approach to Business Processes Customization" completed the scientific program. We would like to thank all the Program Committee members for the valuable work in selecting the papers, Andrea Marrella for his valuable work as publication and publicity chair of the workshop, and Carola Aiello and the consulting agency Consulta Umbria for the organization of this successful event.

Submarine pyroclastic deposits formed during the 20th May 2006 dome collapse of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

The 20th May 2006 lava dome collapse of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, had a total non-dense rock equivalent (non-DRE) collapse volume of approximately 115 × 10 6 m 3. The majority of this volume was deposited into the ocean. The collapse was rapid, 85% of the mobilized volume being removed in just 35 min, giving peak pyroclastic flow flux of 66 × 10 3 m 3 s -1. Channel and levee facies on the submarine flanks of the volcano and formation of a thick, steep-sided ridge, suggest that the largest and most dense blocks were transported proximally as a high concentration granular flow. Of the submerged volume, 30% was deposited from the base of this granular flow, forming a linear, high-relief ridge that extends 7 km from shore. The remaining 70% of the submerged volume comprises the finer grain sizes, which were transported at least 40 km by turbidity currents on gradients of <2°. At several localities, the May 2006 distal turbidity currents ran up 200 m of topography and eroded up to 20 cm of underlying substrate. Multiple turbidites are preserved, representing current reflection from the graben margins and deflection around topography. The high energy of the May 2006 collapse resulted in longer submarine run out than the larger (210 × 10 6 m 3) Soufrière Hills dome collapse in July 2003.