How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Spatial analysis of notified cryptosporidiosis infections in Brisbane, Australia

Purpose: This study explored the spatial distribution of notified cryptosporidiosis cases and identified major socioeconomic factors associated with the transmission of cryptosporidiosis in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: We obtained the computerized data sets on the notified cryptosporidiosis cases and their key socioeconomic factors by statistical local area (SLA) in Brisbane for the period of 1996 to 2004 from the Queensland Department of Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. We used spatial empirical Bayes rates smoothing to estimate the spatial distribution of cryptosporidiosis cases. A spatial classification and regression tree (CART) model was developed to explore the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the incidence rates of cryptosporidiosis. Results: Spatial empirical Bayes analysis reveals that the cryptosporidiosis infections were primarily concentrated in the northwest and southeast of Brisbane. A spatial CART model shows that the relative risk for cryptosporidiosis transmission was 2.4 when the value of the social economic index for areas (SEIFA) was over 1028 and the proportion of residents with low educational attainment in an SLA exceeded 8.8%. Conclusions: There was remarkable variation in spatial distribution of cryptosporidiosis infections in Brisbane. Spatial pattern of cryptosporidiosis seems to be associated with SEIFA and the proportion of residents with low education attainment.

Multi-factor password-authenticated key exchange

We consider a new form of authenticated key exchange which we call multi-factor password-authenticated key exchange, where session establishment depends on successful authentication of multiple short secrets that are complementary in nature, such as a long-term password and a one-time response, allowing the client and server to be mutually assured of each other's identity without directly disclosing private information to the other party. Multi-factor authentication can provide an enhanced level of assurance in higher-security scenarios such as online banking, virtual private network access, and physical access because a multi-factor protocol is designed to remain secure even if all but one of the factors has been compromised. We introduce a security model for multi-factor password-authenticated key exchange protocols, propose an efficient and secure protocol called MFPAK, and provide a security argument to show that our protocol is secure in this model. Our security model is an extension of the Bellare-Pointcheval-Rogaway security model for password-authenticated key exchange and accommodates an arbitrary number of symmetric and asymmetric authentication factors.

Is there something quantum-like about the human mental lexicon?

This talk proceeds from the premise that IR should engage in a more substantial dialogue with cognitive science. After all, how users decide relevance, or how they chose terms to modify a query are processes rooted in human cognition. Recently, there has been a growing literature applying quantum theory (QT) to model cognitive phenomena. This talk will survey recent research, in particular, modelling interference effects in human decision making. One aspect of QT will be illustrated - how quantum entanglement can be used to model word associations in human memory. The implications of this will be briefly discussed in terms of a new approach for modelling concept combinations. Tentative links to human adductive reasoning will also be drawn. The basic theme behind this talk is QT can potentially provide a new genre of information processing models (including search) more aligned with human cognition.

Reliability driven reconfiguration of rural power distribution systems

This paper presents a reliability-based reconfiguration methodology for power distribution systems. Probabilistic reliability models of the system components are considered and Monte Carlo method is used while evaluating the reliability of the distribution system. The reconfiguration is aimed at maximizing the reliability of the power supplied to the customers. A binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO) algorithm is used as a tool to determine the optimal configuration of the sectionalizing and tie switches in the system. The proposed methodology is applied on a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution system.

Value-mapping for major economic infrastructure projects

The establishment of corporate objectives regarding economic, environmental, social, and ethical responsibilities, to inform business practice, has been gaining credibility in the business sector since the early 1990’s. This is witnessed through (i) the formation of international forums for sustainable and accountable development, (ii) the emergence of standards, systems, and frameworks to provide common ground for regulatory and corporate dialogue, and (iii) the significant quantum of relevant popular and academic literature in a diverse range of disciplines. How then has this move towards greater corporate responsibility become evident in the provision of major urban infrastructure projects? The gap identified, in both academic literature and industry practice, is a structured and auditable link between corporate intent and project outcomes. Limited literature has been discovered which makes a link between corporate responsibility; project performance indicators (or critical success factors) and major infrastructure provision. This search revealed that a comprehensive mapping framework, from an organisation’s corporate objectives through to intended, anticipated and actual outcomes and impacts has not yet been developed for the delivery of such projects. The research problem thus explored is ‘the need to better identify, map and account for the outcomes, impacts and risks associated with economic, environmental, social and ethical outcomes and impacts which arise from major economic infrastructure projects, both now, and into the future’. The methodology being used to undertake this research is based on Checkland’s soft system methodology, engaging in action research on three collaborative case studies. A key outcome of this research is a value-mapping framework applicable to Australian public sector agencies. This is a decision-making methodology which will enable project teams responsible for delivering major projects, to better identify and align project objectives and impacts with stated corporate objectives.

Building partnerships as a key strategy in developing an event management model for an international dance event : a case study of the 2008 WDA (World Dance Alliance) Global Summit, Brisbane, Australia

With the increasing growth of cultural events both in Australia and internationally, there has also been an increase in event management studies; in theory and in practice. Although a series of related knowledge and skills required specifically by event managers has already been identified by many researchers (Perry et al., 1996; Getz, 2002 & Silvers et al., 2006) and generic event management models proposed, including ‘project management’ strategies in an event context (Getz, 2007), knowledge gaps still exist in relation to identifying specific types of events, especially for not-for-profit arts events. For events of a largely voluntary nature, insufficient resources are recognised as the most challenging; including finance, human resources and infrastructure. Therefore, the concepts and principles which are adopted by large scale commercial events may not be suitable for not-for-profit arts events aiming at providing professional network opportunities for artists. Building partnerships are identified as a key strategy in developing an effective event management model for this type of event. Using the 2008 World Dance Alliance Global Summit (WDAGS) in Brisbane 13-18 July, as a case study, the level, nature and relationship of key partners are investigated. Data is triangulated from interviews with organisers of the 2008 WDAGS, on-line and email surveys of delegates, participant observation and analysis of formal and informal documents, to produce a management model suited to this kind of event.

Taxonomy and diagnostics of fruit fly infesting Opiine Braconids in Australia and the South Pacific

Opiine wasps (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Opiinae) are parasitoids of dacine fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae: Dacinae), the primary horticultural pests of Australia and the South Pacific. Effective use of opiines for biological control of fruit flies is limited by poor taxonomy and identification difficulties. To overcome these problems, this thesis had two aims: (i) to carry out traditional taxonomic research on the fruit fly infesting opine braconids of Australia and the South Pacific; and (ii) to transfer the results of the taxonomic research into user friendly diagnostic tools. Curated wasp material was borrowed from all major Australian museum collections holding specimens. This was supplemented by a large body of material gathered as part of a major fruit fly project in Papua New Guinea: nearly 4000 specimens were examined and identified. Each wasp species was illustrated using traditional scientific drawings, full colour photomicroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. An electronic identification key was developed using Lucid software and diagnostic images were loaded on the web-based Pest and Diseases Image Library (PaDIL). A taxonomic synopsis and distribution and host records for each of the 15 species of dacine-parasitising opiine braconids found in the South Pacific is presented. Biosteres illusorius Fischer (1971) was formally transferred to the genus Fopius and a new species, Fopius ferrari Carmichael and Wharton (2005), was described. Other species dealt with were Diachasmimorpha hageni (Fullaway, 1952), D. kraussii (Fullaway, 1951), D. longicaudata (Ashmead, 1905), D. tryoni (Cameron, 1911), Fopius arisanus (Sonan, 1932), F. deeralensis (Fullaway, 1950), F. schlingeri Wharton (1999), Opius froggatti Fullaway (195), Psyttalia fijiensis (Fullaway, 1936), P. muesebecki (Fischer, 1963), P. novaguineensis (Szépliget, 1900i) and Utetes perkinsi (Fullaway, 1950). This taxonomic component of the thesis has been formally published in the scientific literature. An interactive diagnostics package (“OpiineID”) was developed, the centre of which is a Lucid based multi-access key. Because the diagnostics package is computer based, without the space limitations of the journal publication, there is no pictorial limit in OpiineID and so it is comprehensively illustrated with SEM photographs, full colour photographs, line drawings and fully rendered illustrations. The identification key is only one small component of OpiineID and the key is supported by fact sheets with morphological descriptions, host associations, geographical information and images. Each species contained within the OpiineID package has also been uploaded onto the PaDIL website (www.padil.gov.au). Because the identification of fruit fly parasitoids is largely of concern to fruit fly workers, rather than braconid specialists, this thesis deals directly with an area of growing importance to many areas of pure and applied biology; the nexus between taxonomy and diagnostics. The Discussion chapter focuses on this area, particularly the opportunities offered by new communication and information tools as new ways delivering the outputs of taxonomic science.

Open Access and Public Sector Information : Policy Developments in Australia and Key Jurisdictions

This book chapter considers recent developments in Australia and key jurisdictions both in relation to the formation of a national information strategy and the management of legal rights in public sector information.

Sensitivity analysis of voltage imbalance in distribution networks with rooftop PVs

A comprehensive voltage imbalance sensitivity analysis and stochastic evaluation based on the rating and location of single-phase grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic cells (PVs) in a residential low voltage distribution network are presented. The voltage imbalance at different locations along a feeder is investigated. In addition, the sensitivity analysis is performed for voltage imbalance in one feeder when PVs are installed in other feeders of the network. A stochastic evaluation based on Monte Carlo method is carried out to investigate the risk index of the non-standard voltage imbalance in the network in the presence of PVs. The network voltage imbalance characteristic based on different criteria of PV rating and location and network conditions is generalized. Improvement methods are proposed for voltage imbalance reduction and their efficacy is verified by comparing their risk index using Monte Carlo simulations.

Optimal allocation and sizing of DGs in distribution networks

In this paper, the placement and sizing of Distributed Generators (DG) in distribution networks are determined optimally. The objective is to minimize the loss and to improve the reliability. The constraints are the bus voltage, feeder current and the reactive power flowing back to the source side. The placement and size of DGs are optimized using a combination of Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). This increases the diversity of the optimizing variables in DPSO not to be stuck in the local minima. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, the semi-urban 37-bus distribution system connected at bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS), which is located at the secondary side of a 33/11 kV distribution substation, is used. The results finally illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Europe and the Media: Building a new kind of Europe; is mass media the key?

The book is a joint effort of eight academics and journalists, Europe specialists from six countries (Australia, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, the United Kingdom and the United States). They give sometimes divergent views on the future of the so-called “European Project”, for building a common European economy and society, but agree that cultural changes, especially changes experienced through mass media, are rapidly taking place. One of the central interests of the book is the operation of the large media centre located at the European Commission in Brussels – the world’s largest gallery of permanently accredited correspondents. Jacket notes: The Lisbon Treaty of December 2009 is the latest success of the European Union’s drive to restructure and expand; yet questions persist about how democratic this new Europe might be. Will Brussels’ promotion of the “European idea” produce a common European culture and society? The authors consider it might, as a culture of everyday shared experience, though old ways are cherished, citizens forever thinking twice about committing to an uncertain future. The book focuses on mass media , as a prime agent of change, sometimes used deliberately to promote a “European project”; sometimes acting more naturally as a medium for new agendas. It looks at proposed media models for Europe, ranging from not very successful pan-European television, to the potentials of media systems based on national markets, and new media based on digital formats. It also studies the Brussels media service, the centre operated by the European Commission, which is the world’s largest concentration of journalists; and ways that dominant national media may come to serve the interests of communities now extending across frontiers. Europe and the Media notes change especially as encountered by new EU member countries of central and eastern Europe.

Paving pathways : shaping the public health workforce through tertiary education

Public health educational pathways in Australia have traditionally been the province of Universities, with the Master of Public Health (MPH) recognised as the flagship professional entry program. Public health education also occurs within the fellowship training of the Faculty of Public Health Medicine, but within Australia this remains confined to medical graduates. In recent years, however, we have seen a proliferation of undergraduate degrees as well as an increasing public health presence in the Vocational Education and Training (VET) sector. ----- Following the 2007 Australian Federal election, the new Labour government brought with it a refreshing commitment to a more inclusive and strategic style of government. An important example of this was the 2020 visioning process that identified key issues of public health concern, including an acknowledgment that it was unacceptable to allocate less than 2% of the health budget towards disease prevention. This led to the recommendation for the establishment of a national preventive health agency (Australia: the healthiest country by 2020 National Preventative Health Strategy, Prepared by the Preventative Health Taskforce 2009). ----- The focus on disease prevention places a spotlight on the workforce that will be required to deliver the new investment in health prevention, and also on the role of public health education in developing and upskilling the workforce. It is therefore timely to reflect on trends, challenges and opportunities from a tertiary sector perspective. Is it more desirable to focus education efforts on selected lead issues such as the “obesity epidemic”, climate change, Indigenous health and so on, or on the underlying theory and skills that build a flexible workforce capable of responding to a range of health challenges? Or should we aspire to both? ----- This paper presents some of the key discussion points from 2008 – 2009 of the Public Health Educational Pathways workshops and working group of the Australian Network of Public Health Institutions. We highlight some of the competing tensions in public health tertiary education, their impact on public health training programs, and the educational pathways that are needed to grow, shape and prepare the public health workforce for future challenges.

Delay distribution based robust H∞ control of networked control systems with uncertainties

Network induced delay in networked control systems (NCS) is inherently non-uniformly distributed and behaves with multifractal nature. However, such network characteristics have not been well considered in NCS analysis and synthesis. Making use of the information of the statistical distribution of NCS network induced delay, a delay distribution based stochastic model is adopted to link Quality-of-Control and network Quality-of-Service for NCS with uncertainties. From this model together with a tighter bounding technology for cross terms, H∞ NCS analysis is carried out with significantly improved stability results. Furthermore, a memoryless H∞ controller is designed to stabilize the NCS and to achieve the prescribed disturbance attenuation level. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Why adopt now? Multiple case studies and survey studies comparing small, medium and large firms

While a number of factors have been highlighted in the innovation adoption literature, little is known about the key triggers of innovation adoption across differently-sized firms. This study compares case studies of small, medium and large manufacturing firms who recently decided to adopt a process innovation. We also employ organizational surveys from 134 firms investigating the factors which influence innovation adoption. The quantitative results support the qualitative findings that the external pressures are a trigger among small to medium firms, while the larger firm’s adoption was associated with internal causes.