Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Celebrity capital as a strategic asset : implications for new venture strategies

Despite an increase in businesses started by celebrities, we have limited understanding as to how celebrity entrepreneurs benefit new ventures. Drawing on a reputational capital perspective, we develop the notion of celebrity capital and show how it can be used to uniquely differentiate the venture and to overcome liabilities of newness. We discuss how celebrity capital can negatively influence the venture when negative information about the celebrity surfaces and in terms of limiting the scope of the venture. We discuss the different strategic implications of celebrity capital for ventures using celebrity entrepreneurs versus endorsers.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Final report : a software diagnostic tool for evaluating distress mechanisms in bridges exposed to aggressive environments

Durability issues of reinforced concrete construction cost millions of dollars in repair or demolition. Identification of the causes of degradation and a prediction of service life based on experience, judgement and local knowledge has limitations in addressing all the associated issues. The objective of this CRC CI research project is to develop a tool that will assist in the interpretation of the symptoms of degradation of concrete structures, estimate residual capacity and recommend cost effective solutions. This report is a documentation of the research undertaken in connection with this project. The primary focus of this research is centred on the case studies provided by Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) and Brisbane City Council (BCC). These organisations are endowed with the responsibility of managing a huge volume of bridge infrastructure in the state of Queensland, Australia. The main issue to be addressed in managing these structures is the deterioration of bridge stock leading to a reduction in service life. Other issues such as political backlash, public inconvenience, approach land acquisitions are crucial but are not within the scope of this project. It is to be noted that deterioration is accentuated by aggressive environments such as salt water, acidic or sodic soils. Carse, 2005, has noted that the road authorities need to invest their first dollars in understanding their local concretes and optimising the durability performance of structures and then look at potential remedial strategies.

A review of non-traditional occupational therapy practice placement education : a focus on role-emerging and project placements

Practice placement education has been recognised as an integral and critical component of the training of occupational therapy students. Although there is an extensive body of literature on clinical education and traditional practice placement education models, there has been limited research on alternative placements.-------- This paper reviews the literature on various practice placement education models and presents a contemporary view on how it is currently delivered. The literature is examined with a particular focus on the increasing range of practice placement education opportunities, such as project and role-emerging placements. The drivers for non-traditional practice placement education include shortages of traditional placement options, health reform and changing work practices, potential for role development and influence on practice choice. The benefits and challenges of non-traditional practice placement education are discussed, including supervision issues, student evaluation, professional and personal development and the opportunity to practise clinical skills.--------- Further research is recommended to investigate occupational therapy graduates' perceptions of role-emerging and project placements in order to identify the benefits or otherwise of these placements and to contribute to the limited body of knowledge of emerging education opportunities.

Citizen journalism and everyday life : A case study of Germany’s myHeimat.de

Much recent research into citizen journalism has focussed on its role in political debate and deliberation. Such research examines important questions about citizen participation in democratic processes – however, it perhaps places undue focus on only one area of journalistic coverage, and presents a challenge which only a small number of citizen journalism projects can realistically hope to meet. A greater opportunity for broad-based citizen involvement in journalistic activities may lie outside of politics, in the coverage of everyday community life. A leading exponent of this approach is the German-based citizen journalism Website myHeimat.de, which provides a nationwide platform for participants to contribute reports about events in their community. myHeimat takes a hyperlocal approach but also allows for content aggregation on specific topics across multiple local communities; Hannover-based newspaper publishing house Madsack has recently acquired a stake in the project. Drawing on extensive interviews with myHeimat CEO Martin Huber and Madsack newspaper editors Peter Taubald and Clemens Wlokas during October 2008, this paper analyses the myHeimat project and examines its applicability beyond rural and regional areas in Germany; it investigates the question of what role citizen journalism may play beyond the political realm.

Systematising knowledge management in projects

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a practicable systems-based approach to knowledge management (KM) in a project environment, to encourage organisations to unlock the value in their review processes. It relies on knowledge capture and storage at decision review points, to enrich individual, team and organisational learning during the project life cycle. The project's phases are typically represented horizontally with deliverables (objectives) or project "promises" as the desirable outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to give expression through introducing a vertical dimension to facilitate the KM process. A model is proposed that conceptualises project-specific knowledge drawing on and feeding into the organisation's knowledge management system (KMS) at tactical and strategic levels. Design/methodology/approach – This conceptual paper links concepts from systems theory with KM, to produce a model to identify, collate, and optimise project-based knowledge and integrate it into the management process. Findings – The application of the system theory approach enriches the knowledge generated by a project, and feeds it into the next phase of that project. At the same time, it contributes to the individual's and project team's KM, specifies possible courses of action, together with risks, costs and benefits and thus it expands the organisation's higher level KMS. Research limitations/implications – The concept suggests that the knowledge capture, storage and sharing process may best be undertaken holistically, in view of the systems relationships between the tasks. Systems theory structures this process. Research opportunities include studying the interfaces between levels of KM, in relation to the project's progress. Practical implications – Reconceptualisation of the project as a knowledge creation process may improve the project's progress as well as add to the individual's, project team's, and wider organisation's knowledge base. An example is given. Originality/value – This paper illuminates the broader potential of under-utilised opportunities in well-known management approaches to add dimension to the business project, of knowledge creation, storage and sharing.

Facilities management action agenda : the Australian government and industry working together for improvement

This paper provides an overview of the Australian Government’s Facilities Management (FM) Action Agenda as announced in 2004 as a key policy plank designed to facilitate growth of the FM industry. The resulting consultation with industry leaders has seen the criterion and release in April 2005 of the FM Action Agenda’s strategic plan entitled ‘Managing the Built Environment’. This framework, representing a collaboration between the Australian Government, public and private sector stakeholders and Facility Management Association of Australia (FMA Australia) and other allied bodies, sets out to achieve the vision of a more “…productive and sustainable built environment…” through improved innovation, education and standards. The 36 month implementation phase is now underway and will take a multi-pronged approach to enhancing the recognition of the FM industry and removing impediments to its growth with a 20 point action plan across the following platforms: • Innovation – Improved appreciation of facility life cycles, and greater understanding of the key drivers of workplace productivity, and the improved application of information technology. • Education and Training – Improved access to dedicated FM education and training opportunities and creation clear career pathways into the profession. • Regulatory Reform – Explore opportunities to harmonise cross jurisdictional regulatory compliance requirements that have an efficiency impact on FM. • Sustainability – Improved utilization of existing knowledge and the development of tools and opportunities to improve the environmental performance of facilities. Additional information is available at www.fma.com.au

Sydney Opera House : facilities management exemplar project

The paper presents an interim summary of research and case studies being undertaken in the Sydney Opera House FM Exemplar Project covering procurement, benchmarking and building information models. The final outcomes of the FM Exemplar Project will be presented through various forums open to all FM practitioners and published in Australia and elsewhere through relevant journals. Sydney Opera House is an Australian icon, attracting some 4.5 million visitors per year who admire its built form and enjoy an evening of theatre. The building is the attraction, part of the experience. Therefore, facilities management is critical to the success of the Sydney Opera House enterprise and an ideal subject for the study of facilities management. Significantly the three research themes are heavily intertwined – effective risk sharing in procurement requires historic information and benchmarks for future performance, benchmarking gathers vast quantities of data that can only be exploited if properly related to one another and a building information model provides the means to manage such data. The case studies are emerging as real-life examples of how one organisation is addressing FM issues common to many, and will provide useful lessons for practitioners pursing similar strategies in their own organisations.

Re-life of buildings - decision support tools for maximising project efficiency

This paper describes the process adopted in developing an integrated decision support framework for planning of office building refurbishment projects, with specific emphasize on optimising rentable floor space, structural strengthening, residual life and sustainability. Expert opinion on the issues to be considered in a tool is being captured through the DELPHI process, which is currently ongoing. The methodology for development of the integrated tool will be validated through decisions taken during a case study project: refurbishment of CH1 building of Melbourne City Council, which will be followed through to completion by the research team. Current status of the CH1 planning will be presented in the context of the research project.

Why cybersafety tips don’t work for cyberbullying

Research into cyberbullying in Australia has been slow. This is partly because rigorous research takes time, both to conduct, to analyse and to publish. In addition, Australian governments and other decision makers did not realise that cyberbullying was happening until there was greater media attention to the problem in the last few years. This meant that there was no serious research money allocated to cyberbullying research in Australia until about two years ago. In addition, initial research has mainly looked at how many students have been cyberbullied and what were the consequences. As far as I know there is only one large research project which is looking at what programs actually work to prevent and/or intervene in cyberbullying in Australia and that will take time to ascertain. However, our society wants quick fixes and they want a quick fix for cyberbullying.

Construction supply chain economic policy implementation for sectoral change : moving beyond the rhetoric

Construction sector policy makers have the opportunity to create improvements and develop economic, social and environmental sustainability through supply chain economics. The idea of the supply chain concept to improve firm behaviour and industry performance is not new. However there has been limited application and little or no measurement to monitor successful implementation. Often purchasing policies have been developed with sound strategic procurement principles but even these have had limited penetration in to the processes and practices of infrastructure agencies. The research reported in this paper documents an action research study currently being undertaken in the Australian construction sector which aims to explore supply chain economic policy implementation for sectoral change by two government agencies. The theory which informs this study is the emerging area of construction supply chain economics. There are five stages to the project including; demand analysis, chain analysis, government agency organizational audit, supplier strategy and strategic alignment. The overall objective is towards the development of a Supplier Group Strategy Map for two public sector agencies. Two construction subsectors are examined in detail; construction and demolition waste and precast concrete. Both of these subsectors are critical to the economic and environmental sustainability performance of the construction sector and the community as a whole in the particular jurisdictions. The local and state government agencies who are at the core of the case studies rely individually on the performance of these sectors. The study is set within the context of a sound state purchasing policy that has however, had limited application by the two agencies. Partial results of the study are presented and early findings indicate that the standard risk versus expenditure procurement model does not capture the complexities of project, owner and government risk considerations. A new model is proposed in this paper, which incorporates the added dimension of time. The research results have numerous stakeholders; they will hold particular value for those interested in regional construction sector economics, government agencies who develop and implement policy and who have a large construction purchasing imprint and the players involved in the two subsectors. Even though this is a study in Australia it has widespread applicability as previous research indicates that procurement reform is of international significance and policy implementation is problematic.