Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

The Australian Grey Nomads : are they who we think they are? Enhancing formative research through the quantitative assessment of psychological constructs

Issue addressed: Measures of 'social identity' and 'psychological sense of community' were included within a broader formative research inquiry to gain insight into the identity characteristics and level of connectedness among older recreational road travellers (commonly known as Grey Nomads). The research sought to gain insights on how best to reach or speak to this growing driver cohort. ----- ----- Method: Participants included 631 older recreational road travellers ranging in age from 50 years to over 80 years. Data were obtained through three scales which were incorporated into a larger formative research survey; an identity hierarchy, the Three Factor Model of Social Identity and the Sense of Community Index. ----- ----- Results: Older recreational road travellers see themselves principally as couples, with social group identity being secondary. Although many identified to some degree with the Grey Nomad identity, when asked to self categorise as either members of the Broad Network of Recreational Vehicle Travellers or as Grey Nomads, the majority categorised themselves as the former. Those identifying as Grey Nomads, however, reported significantly higher levels of 'social identification' and 'sense of community'. ----- ----- Conclusion: The Grey Nomad identity may not be the best identity at which to target road safety messages for this cohort. Targeting travelling 'couples' may be more efficacious. Using the 'Grey Nomad' identity is likely to reap at least some success, however, given that many identified to some degree with this group identity. Those identifying as Grey Nomads may be more open to community participation or behaviour change given their significantly higher levels of 'social identity' and 'sense of community'.

Improved salinity management for the Nebine / Mungallala / Wallam catchment

The low stream salinity naturally in the Nebine-Mungallala Catchment, extent of vegetation retention, relatively low rainfall and high evaporation indicates that there is a relatively low risk of rising shallow groundwater tables in the catchment. Scalding caused by wind and water erosion exposing highly saline sub-soils is a more important regional issue, such as in the Homeboin area. Local salinisation associated with evaporation of bore water from free flowing bore drains and bores is also an important land degradation issue particularly in the lower Nebine, Wallam and Mungallala Creeks. The replacement of free flowing artesian bores and bore drains with capped bores and piped water systems under the Great Artesian Basin bore rehabilitation program is addressing local salinisation and scalding in the vicinity of bore drains and preventing the discharge of saline bore water to streams. Three principles for the prevention and control of salinity in the Nebine Mungallala catchment have been identified in this review: • Avoid salinity through avoiding scalds – i.e. not exposing the near-surface salt in landscape through land degradation; • Riparian zone management: Scalding often occurs within 200m or so of watering lines. Natural drainage lines are most likely to be overstocked, and thus have potential for scalding. Scalding begins when vegetation is removed, and without that binding cover, wind and water erosion exposes the subsoil; and • Monitoring of exposed or grazed soil areas. Based on the findings of the study, we make the following recommendations: 1. Undertake a geotechnical study of existing maps and other data to help identify and target areas most at risk of rising water tables causing salinity. Selected monitoring should then be established using piezometers as an early warning system. 2. SW NRM should financially support scald reclamation activity through its various funding programs. However, for this to have any validity in the overall management of salinity risk, it is critical that such funding require the landholder to undertake a salinity hazard/risk assessment of his/her holding. 3. A staged approach to funding may be appropriate. In the first instance, it would be reasonable to commence funding some pilot scald reclamation work with a view to further developing and piloting the farm hazard/risk assessment tools, and exploring how subsequent grazing management strategies could be incorporated within other extension and management activities. Once the details of the necessary farm level activities have been more clearly defined, and following the outcomes of the geotechnical review recommended above, a more comprehensive funding package could be rolled out to priority areas. 4. We recommend that best-practice grazing management training currently on offer should be enhanced with information about salinity risk in scald-prone areas, and ways of minimising the likelihood of scald formation. 5. We recommend that course material be developed for local students in Years 6 and 7, and that arrangements be made with local schools to present this information. Given the constraints of existing syllabi, we envisage that negotiations may have to be undertaken with the Department of Education in order for this material to be permitted to be used. We have contact with key people who could help in this if required. 6. We recommend that SW NRM continue to support existing extension activities such as Grazing Land Management and the Monitoring Made Easy tools. These aids should be able to be easily expanding to incorporate techniques for monitoring, addressing and preventing salinity and scalding. At the time of writing staff of SW NRM were actively involved in this process. It is important that these activities are adequately resourced to facilitate the uptake by landholders of the perception that salinity is an issue that needs to be addressed as part of everyday management. 7. We recommend that SW NRM consider investing in the development and deployment of a scenario-modelling learning support tool as part of the awareness raising and education activities. Secondary salinity is a dynamic process that results from ongoing human activity which mobilises and/or exposes salt occurring naturally in the landscape. Time scales can be short to very long, and the benefits of management actions can similarly have immediate or very long time frames. One way to help explain the dynamics of these processes is through scenario modelling.

Prioritizing land and sea conservation investments to protect coral reefs

Background: Coral reefs have exceptional biodiversity, support the livelihoods of millions of people, and are threatened by multiple human activities on land (e.g. farming) and in the sea (e.g. overfishing). Most conservation efforts occur at local scales and, when effective, can increase the resilience of coral reefs to global threats such as climate change (e.g. warming water and ocean acidification). Limited resources for conservation require that we efficiently prioritize where and how to best sustain coral reef ecosystems.----- ----- Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we develop the first prioritization approach that can guide regional-scale conservation investments in land-and sea-based conservation actions that cost-effectively mitigate threats to coral reefs, and apply it to the Coral Triangle, an area of significant global attention and funding. Using information on threats to marine ecosystems, effectiveness of management actions at abating threats, and the management and opportunity costs of actions, we calculate the rate of return on investment in two conservation actions in sixteen ecoregions. We discover that marine conservation almost always trumps terrestrial conservation within any ecoregion, but terrestrial conservation in one ecoregion can be a better investment than marine conservation in another. We show how these results could be used to allocate a limited budget for conservation and compare them to priorities based on individual criteria.----- ----- Conclusions/Significance: Previous prioritization approaches do not consider both land and sea-based threats or the socioeconomic costs of conserving coral reefs. A simple and transparent approach like ours is essential to support effective coral reef conservation decisions in a large and diverse region like the Coral Triangle, but can be applied at any scale and to other marine ecosystems.

Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Evolutionary biology of Gondwanan non-biting midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The potential restriction to effective dispersal and gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation can apply to multiple levels of evolutionary scale; from the fragmentation of ancient supercontinents driving diversification and speciation on disjunct landmasses, to the isolation of proximate populations as a result of their inability to cross intervening unsuitable habitat. Investigating the role of habitat fragmentation in driving diversity within and among taxa can thus include inferences of phylogenetic relationships among taxa, assessments of intraspecific phylogeographic structure and analyses of gene flow among neighbouring populations. The proposed Gondwanan clade within the chironomid (non-biting midge) subfamily Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae) represents a model system for investigating the role that population fragmentation and isolation has played at different evolutionary scales. A pilot study by Krosch et al (2009) indentified several highly divergent lineages restricted to ancient rainforest refugia and limited gene flow among proximate sites within a refuge for one member of this clade, Echinocladius martini Cranston. This study provided a framework for investigating the evolutionary history of this taxon and its relatives more thoroughly. Populations of E. martini were sampled in the Paluma bioregion of northeast Queensland to investigate patterns of fine-scale within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a refuge more rigorously. Data was incorporated from Krosch et al (2009) and additional sites were sampled up- and downstream of the original sites. Analyses of genetic structure revealed strong natal site fidelity and high genetic structure among geographically proximate streams. Little evidence was found for regular headwater exchange among upstream sites, but there was distinct evidence for rare adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, the distribution of shared haplotypes implied that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to the natal stream channel. Patterns of regional phylogeographic structure were examined in two related austral orthoclad taxa – Naonella forsythi Boothroyd from New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Sæther and Andersen from southern South America – to provide a comparison with patterns revealed in their close relative E. martini. Both taxa inhabit tectonically active areas of the southern hemisphere that have also experienced several glaciation events throughout the Plio-Pleistocene that are thought to have affected population structure dramatically in many taxa. Four highly divergent lineages estimated to have diverged since the late Miocene were revealed in each taxon, mirroring patterns in E. martini; however, there was no evidence for local geographical endemism, implying substantial range expansion post-diversification. The differences in pattern evident among the three related taxa were suggested to have been influenced by variation in the responses of closed forest habitat to climatic fluctuations during interglacial periods across the three landmasses. Phylogeographic structure in E. martini was resolved at a continental scale by expanding upon the sampling design of Krosch et al (2009) to encompass populations in southeast Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Patterns of phylogeographic structure were consistent with expectations and several previously unrecognised lineages were revealed from central- and southern Australia that were geographically endemic to closed forest refugia. Estimated divergence times were congruent with the timing of Plio-Pleistocene rainforest contractions across the east coast of Australia. This suggested that dispersal and gene flow of E. martini among isolated refugia was highly restricted and that this taxon was susceptible to the impacts of habitat change. Broader phylogenetic relationships among taxa considered to be members of this Gondwanan orthoclad group were resolved in order to test expected patterns of evolutionary affinities across the austral continents. The inferred phylogeny and estimated divergence times did not accord with expected patterns based on the geological sequence of break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent and implied instead several transoceanic dispersal events post-vicariance. Difficulties in appropriate taxonomic sampling and accurate calibration of molecular phylogenies notwithstanding, the sampling regime implemented in the current study has been the most intensive yet performed for austral members of the Orthocladiinae and unsurprisingly has revealed both novel taxa and phylogenetic relationships within and among described genera. Several novel associations between life stages are made here for both described and previously unknown taxa. Investigating evolutionary relationships within and among members of this clade of proposed Gondwanan orthoclad taxa has demonstrated that a complex interaction between historical population fragmentation and dispersal at several levels of evolutionary scale has been important in driving diversification in this group. While interruptions to migration, colonisation and gene flow driven by population fragmentation have clearly contributed to the development and maintenance of much of the diversity present in this group, long-distance dispersal has also played a role in influencing diversification of continental biotas and facilitating gene flow among disjunct populations.

Performing the unutterable : mapping the experiential in contemporary dance

This research project looks to engage audiences in a variety of experiential ways by reexamining and manipulating the traditional presentation paradigm for viewing Western contemporary dance. It considers how the audience may be situated in the creation and presentation of contemporary dance generally, and specifically in the work The Voyeur, which researched these issues in action. By situating the body of the audience member as a site of understanding and meaning making, this practice-based research considers the audience within the artists’ creative process from the inception of a creative work, rather than after the work has been created. The research questions how a ‘lived experience’ of contemporary dance could be deepened for the audience. It presents a series of ‘tools’ to create alternative frameworks of presentation that challenge the dominant modes of creation, presentation and meaning making in contemporary dance. The five tools established and applied in this research are: site, liminality, agency, proximity and performer authenticity. These tools are framed as a series of calibrated scales that allow choreographers to map decisions made in the studio in relation to potential audience engagement. These scales have the ability to house multiple presentation formats from the traditional to the avant garde and open up possibilities for broad analysis of a wide range of artistic dance works.

Interactional competence in a paired speaking test : features salient to raters

Paired speaking tests are now commonly used in both high-stakes testing and classroom assessment contexts. The co-construction of discourse by candidates is regarded as a strength of paired speaking tests, as candidates have the opportunity to display a wider range of interactional competencies, including turn taking, initiating topics and engaging in extended discourse with a partner, rather than an examiner. However, the impact of the interlocutor in such jointly negotiated discourse and the implications for assessing interactional competence are areas of concern. This article reports on the features of interactional competence that were salient to four trained raters of 12 paired speaking tests through the analysis of rater notes, stimulated verbal recalls and rater discussions. Findings enabled the identification of features of the performance noted by raters when awarding scores for interactional competence, and the particular features associated with higher and lower scores. A number of these features were seen by the raters as mutual achievements, which raises the issue of the extent to which it is possible to assess individual contributions to the co-constructed performance. The findings have implications for defining the construct of interactional competence in paired speaking tests and operationalising this in rating scales.

Parallel user profiling based on folksonomy for Large Scaled Recommender Systems : an implimentation of Cascading MapReduce

The Large scaled emerging user created information in web 2.0 such as tags, reviews, comments and blogs can be used to profile users’ interests and preferences to make personalized recommendations. To solve the scalability problem of the current user profiling and recommender systems, this paper proposes a parallel user profiling approach and a scalable recommender system. The current advanced cloud computing techniques including Hadoop, MapReduce and Cascading are employed to implement the proposed approaches. The experiments were conducted on Amazon EC2 Elastic MapReduce and S3 with a real world large scaled dataset from Del.icio.us website.

Pyktree : a K-tree implementation in Python

In this paper we present pyktree, an implementation of the K-tree algorithm in the Python programming language. The K-tree algorithm provides highly balanced search trees for vector quantization that scales up to very large data sets. Pyktree is highly modular and well suited for rapid-prototyping of novel distance measures and centroid representations. It is easy to install and provides a python package for library use as well as command line tools.

Psychometric properties of the parents' fever management scale in a Turkish population

Aim: This paper reports a study designed to assess the psychometric properties (validity and reliability) of a Turkish version of the Australian Parents’ Fever Management Scale (PFMS). Background: Little is known about childhood fever management among Turkish parents. No scales to measure parents’ fever management practices in Turkey are available. Design: This is a methodological study. Methods: Eighty parents, of febrile children aged six months to five years, were randomly selected from the paedaitric hospital and two community family health centers in Sakarya, Turkey. The PFMS was back translated; language equivalence and content validity were validated. PFMS and socio-demographic data were collected in 2009. Means and standard deviations were calculated for interval level data and p values greater than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Unrotated principal component analysis was used to determine construct validity and Cronbach’s coefficient alpha determined the internal consistency reliability. Results: The PFMS was psychometrically sound in this population. Construct validity, confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis [KMO 0.812, Bartlett’s Specificity (χ² = 182.799, df=28, P < 0·001)] revealed the Turkish version to be comprised of the eight original PFMS items. Internal consistency reliability coefficient was 0.80 and the scale’s total-item correlation coefficients ranged from 0.15 to 0.66 and were significant (p<0.001). Interestingly parents reported high scores on the PFMS 34.52±4.60 (range 8-40 with 40 indicating a high burden of care for febrile children). Conclusion: The PFMS was as psychometrically robust in a Turkish population as in an Australian population and is, therefore, a useful tool for health professionals to identify parents’ practices, provide targeted education thereby in reducing the unnecessary burden of care they place on themselves when caring for a febrile child. Relevance to clinical practice. Testing in different populations, cultures and healthcare systems will further assist in reporting the PFMS usefulness in clinical practice and research.

Mood and interpersonal functioning in heavy smokers

Male and female adult heavy smokers (n = 96) and non-smokers (n = 123) were compared on the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), Adult Attachment Scale (AAS), Fear of Intimacy Scale (FIS), Negative Mood Regulation (NMR) Scale and Affect Intensity Measure (AIM). Compared with non-smokers, smokers scored significantly higher on DASS-Stress, DASS-Anxiety, and DASS-Depression, and significantly lower on NMR, AAS-Depend and AAS-Close. Smokers also scored marginally higher on FIS. Results suggest mood and relationship dysfunction in smokers, similar to the findings of a previous investigation of detoxified inpatients undergoing treatment for substance (alcohol, heroin, or methamphetamine) dependence.

Consumer misbehaviour during professional service encounters

To date, consumer behaviour research is still over-focused on the functional rather than the dysfunctional. Both empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that service organisations are burdened with the concept of consumer sovereignty, while consumers freely flout the ‘rules’ of social exchange and behave in deviant and dysfunctional ways. Further, the current scope of consumer misbehaviour research suggests that the phenomenon has principally been studied in the context of economically-focused exchange. This limits our current understanding of consumer misbehaviour to service encounters that are more transactional than relational in nature. Consequently, this thesis takes a Social Exchange approach to consumer misbehaviour and reports a three-stage multi-method study that examined the nature and antecedents of consumer misbehaviour in professional services. It addresses the following broad research question: What is the nature of consumer misbehaviour during professional service encounters? Study One initially explored the nature of consumer misbehaviour in professional service encounters using critical incident technique (CIT) within 38 semi-structured in-depth interviews. The study was designed to develop a better understanding of what constitutes consumer misbehaviour from a service provider’s perspective. Once the nature of consumer misbehaviour had been qualified, Study Two focused on developing and refining calibrated items that formed Guttman-like scales for two consumer misbehaviour constructs: one for the most theoretically-central type of consumer misbehaviour identified in Study One (i.e. refusal to participate) and one for the most well-theorised and salient type of consumer misbehaviour (i.e. verbal abuse) identified in Study One to afford a comparison. This study used Rasch modelling to investigate whether it was possible to calibrate the escalating severity of a series of decontextualised behavioural descriptors in a valid and reliable manner. Creating scales of calibrated items that capture the variation in severity of different types of consumer misbehaviour identified in Study One allowed for a more valid and reliable investigation of the antecedents of such behaviour. Lastly, Study Three utilised an experimental design to investigate three key antecedents of consumer misbehaviour: (1) the perceived quality of the service encounter [drawn from Fullerton and Punj’s (1993) model of aberrant consumer behaviour], (2) the violation of consumers’ perceptions of justice and equity [drawn from Rousseau’s (1989) Psychological Contract Theory], and (3) consumers’ affective responses to exchange [drawn from Weiss and Cropanzano’s (1996) Affective Events Theory]. Investigating three key antecedents of consumer misbehaviour confirmed the newly-developed understanding of the nature of consumer misbehaviour during professional service encounters. Combined, the results of the three studies suggest that consumer misbehaviour is characteristically different within professional services. The most salient and theoretically-central behaviours can be measured using increasingly severe decontextualised behavioural descriptors. Further, increasingly severe forms of consumer misbehaviour are likely to occur as a response to consumer anger at low levels of interpersonal service quality. These findings have a range of key implications for both marketing theory and practice.

A new control-volume finite-element scheme for heterogeneous porous media : application to the drying of softwood

An improved mesoscopic model is presented for simulating the drying of porous media. The aim of this model is to account for two scales simultaneously: the scale of the whole product and the scale of the heterogeneities of the porous medium. The innovation of this method is the utilization of a new mass-conservative scheme based on the Control-Volume Finite-Element (CV-FE) method that partitions the moisture content field over the individual sub-control volumes surrounding each node within the mesh. Although the new formulation has potential for application across a wide range of transport processes in heterogeneous porous media, the focus here is on applying the model to the drying of small sections of softwood consisting of several growth rings. The results conclude that, when compared to a previously published scheme, only the new mass-conservative formulation correctly captures the true moisture content evolution in the earlywood and latewood components of the growth rings during drying.

Persistent ocean monitoring with underwater gliders : adapting sampling resolution

Ocean processes are dynamic, complex, and occur on multiple spatial and temporal scales. To obtain a synoptic view of such processes, ocean scientists collect data over long time periods. Historically, measurements were continually provided by fixed sensors, e.g., moorings, or gathered from ships. Recently, an increase in the utilization of autonomous underwater vehicles has enabled a more dynamic data acquisition approach. However, we still do not utilize the full capabilities of these vehicles. Here we present algorithms that produce persistent monitoring missions for underwater vehicles by balancing path following accuracy and sampling resolution for a given region of interest, which addresses a pressing need among ocean scientists to efficiently and effectively collect high-value data. More specifically, this paper proposes a path planning algorithm and a speed control algorithm for underwater gliders, which together give informative trajectories for the glider to persistently monitor a patch of ocean. We optimize a cost function that blends two competing factors: maximize the information value along the path, while minimizing deviation from the planned path due to ocean currents. Speed is controlled along the planned path by adjusting the pitch angle of the underwater glider, so that higher resolution samples are collected in areas of higher information value. The resulting paths are closed circuits that can be repeatedly traversed to collect long-term ocean data in dynamic environments. The algorithms were tested during sea trials on an underwater glider operating off the coast of southern California, as well as in Monterey Bay, California. The experimental results show significant improvements in data resolution and path reliability compared to previously executed sampling paths used in the respective regions.