Unbiased estimating equations from working correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures

The method of generalized estimating equation-, (GEEs) has been criticized recently for a failure to protect against misspecification of working correlation models, which in some cases leads to loss of efficiency or infeasibility of solutions. However, the feasibility and efficiency of GEE methods can be enhanced considerably by using flexible families of working correlation models. We propose two ways of constructing unbiased estimating equations from general correlation models for irregularly timed repeated measures to supplement and enhance GEE. The supplementary estimating equations are obtained by differentiation of the Cholesky decomposition of the working correlation, or as score equations for decoupled Gaussian pseudolikelihood. The estimating equations are solved with computational effort equivalent to that required for a first-order GEE. Full details and analytic expressions are developed for a generalized Markovian model that was evaluated through simulation. Large-sample ".sandwich" standard errors for working correlation parameter estimates are derived and shown to have good performance. The proposed estimating functions are further illustrated in an analysis of repeated measures of pulmonary function in children.

Working correlation structure misspecification, estimation and covariate design: Implications for generalised estimating equations performance

The method of generalised estimating equations for regression modelling of clustered outcomes allows for specification of a working matrix that is intended to approximate the true correlation matrix of the observations. We investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency of the generalised estimating equation for the mean parameters when the correlation parameters are estimated by various methods. The asymptotic relative efficiency depends on three-features of the analysis, namely (i) the discrepancy between the working correlation structure and the unobservable true correlation structure, (ii) the method by which the correlation parameters are estimated and (iii) the 'design', by which we refer to both the structures of the predictor matrices within clusters and distribution of cluster sizes. Analytical and numerical studies of realistic data-analysis scenarios show that choice of working covariance model has a substantial impact on regression estimator efficiency. Protection against avoidable loss of efficiency associated with covariance misspecification is obtained when a 'Gaussian estimation' pseudolikelihood procedure is used with an AR(1) structure.

Mitigating undesirable impacts in the marine environment: A review of market-based management measures

Internationally, marine biodiversity conservation objectives are having an increasing influence on the management of commercial fisheries. While this is largely being implemented through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) other management measures, such as market based instruments (MBIs), have proved to be effective at managing target species catch in fisheries and reducing environmental impacts in industries such as mining and tourism. Market-based management measures aim to mitigate the impacts of activities by better aligning the incentives their participants face with the objectives of management, changing their behavior as a consequence. In this paper, we review the potential of MBIs as management tools to mitigate undesirable environmental impacts associated with commercial fishing. Where they exist, examples of previous applications are described and the factors that influence their applicability and effectiveness are discussed. Several fishing methods and impacts are considered and suggest that whilst no single approach is most appropriate in all circumstances either replacing or complementing existing management arrangements with MBIs has the potential to improve environmental performance. This has a number of implications. From the environmental perspective they should enable levels of undesirable impacts such as damage to sensitive habitat or the bycatch of protected species of turtles, marine mammals, and seabirds to be reduced. The increased flexibility MBIs allow industry when developing solutions also has the potential to reduce costs to both the industry and managers, improving the cost-effectiveness of regulation as a result. Further, in the increasingly relevant case of MPAs the need for publicly funded compensation, often paid to industry when vessels are excluded from grounds, may also be significantly reduced if improved environmental performance makes it possible for some industry members to continue operating.

The influence of a novel simulated learning environment upon student clinical subjective refraction performance: A pilot study

Background: Optometry students are taught the process of subjective refraction through lectures and laboratory based practicals before progressing to supervised clinical practice. Simulated learning environments (SLEs) are an emerging technology that are used in a range of health disciplines, however, there is limited evidence regarding the effectiveness of clinical simulators as an educational tool. Methods: Forty optometry students (20 fourth year and 20 fifth year) were assessed twice by a qualified optometrist (two examinations separated by 4-8 weeks) while completing a monocular non-cycloplegic subjective refraction on the same patient with an unknown refractive error simulated using contact lenses. Half of the students were granted access to an online SLE, The Brien Holden Vision Institute (BHVI®) Virtual Refractor, and the remaining students formed a control group. The primary outcome measures at each visit were; accuracy of the clinical refraction compared to a qualified optometrist and relative to the Optometry Council of Australia and New Zealand (OCANZ) subjective refraction examination criteria. Secondary measures of interest included descriptors of student SLE engagement, student self-reported confidence levels and correlations between performance in the simulated and real world clinical environment. Results: Eighty percent of students in the intervention group interacted with the SLE (for an average of 100 minutes); however, there was no correlation between measures of student engagement with the BHVI® Virtual Refractor and speed or accuracy of clinical subjective refractions. Fifth year students were typically more confident and refracted more accurately and quickly than fourth year students. A year group by experimental group interaction (p = 0.03) was observed for accuracy of the spherical component of refraction, and post hoc analysis revealed that less experienced students exhibited greater gains in clinical accuracy following exposure to the SLE intervention. Conclusions: Short-term exposure to a SLE can positively influence clinical subjective refraction outcomes for less experienced optometry students and may be of benefit in increasing the skills of novice refractionists to levels appropriate for commencing supervised clinical interactions.

A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Reengaging, reenacting and reenvisaging discourses of disaster through public space performance: Austerity, art, and the art of protest

This paper offers a mediation on disaster, recovery, resilience, and restoration of balance, in both a material and a metaphorical sense, when ‘disaster’ befalls not the body politic of the nation but the body personal. In the past few decades, of course, artists, activists and scholars have deliberately tried to avoid describing personal, physical and phenomenological experiences of the disabled body in terms of difficulty and disaster. This has been part of a political move, from a medical model, in which disability, disease and illness are positioned as personal catastrophes, to a social model, in which disability is positioned as a social construct that comes from systems, institutions and infrastructure designed to exclude different bodies. It is a move that is responsible for a certain discomfort people with disabilities, and artists with disabilities, today feel towards performances that deploy disability as a metaphor for disaster, from Hijikata, to Theatre Hora. In the past five years, though, this particular discourse has begun rising again, particularly as people with disabilities fact their own anything but natural disasters as a result of the austerity measures now widespread across the US, UK, Europe and elsewhere. Measures that threaten people’s ability to live, and take part in social and institutional life, in any meaningful way. Measures that, as artist Katherine Araniello notes, also bring additional difficulty, danger, and potential for disaster as they ripple outwards across the tides of familial ties, threatening family, friends, and careers who become bound up in the struggle to do more with less. In this paper, I consider how people with disabilities use performance, particularly public space interventionalist performance, to reengage, renact and reenvisage the discourse of national, economic, environmental or other forms of disaster, the need for austerity, the need to avoid providing people with support for desires and interests as well as basic daily needs, particularly when fraud and corruption is so right, and other such ideas that have become an all too unpleasant reality for many people. Performances, for instance, like Liz Crow’s Bedding Out, where she invited people into her bed – for people with disabilities a symbolic space, which necessarily becomes more a public living room restaurant, office and so forth than a private space when poor mobility means they spend much time it in – to talk about their lives, their difficulties, and dealing with austerity. Or, for instance, like the Bolshy Divas, who mimic public and political policy, reports and advertising paranoia to undermine their discourses about austerity. I examine the effects, politics and ethics of such interventions, including examination of the comparative effect of highly bodied interventions (like Crow’s) and highly disembodied interventions (like the Bolshy Diva’s) in discourses of difficulty, disaster and austerity on a range of target spectator communities.

The mini clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX) for assessing clinical performance of international medical graduates

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility, reliability and acceptability of the mini clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX) for performance assessment among international medical graduates (IMGs). Design, setting and participants: Observational study of 209 patient encounters involving 28 IMGs and 35 examiners at three metropolitan teaching hospitals in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, September-December 2006. Main outcome measures: The reliability of the mini-CEX was estimated using generatisability (G) analysis, and its acceptability was evaluated by a written survey of the examiners and IMGs. Results: The G coefficient for eight encounters was 0.88, suggesting that the reliability of the mini-CEX was 0.90 for 10 encounters. Almost half of the IMGs (7/16) and most examiners (14/18) were satisfied with the mini-CEX as a learning tool. Most of the IMGs and examiners enjoyed the immediate feedback, which is a strong component of the tool. Conclusion: The mini-CEX is a reliable tool for performance assessment of IMGs, and is acceptable to and well received by both learners and supervisors.