One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Reduced expression of retinoblastoma gene product (pRB) and high expression of p53 are associated with poor prognosis in ovarian cancer

Paraffin sections (n = 168, 27 benign, 16 low malignant potential [LMP] and 125 malignant tumours) from epithelial ovarian tumours were evaluated immunohistochemically for expression of retinoblastoma gene product (pRB) and p53 protein, and the relationship among pRB, p53 and cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2 (CDKN2) gene product p16INK4A (p16) was analysed, following our previous study of p16. Forty-one percent of the benign, 50% of the LMP and most (71%) of the malignant tumours showed high pRB expression. High expression of pRB (>50% pRB-positive cells) significantly correlated with non-mucinous histological subtypes. Reduced pRB expression, substage and residual disease were significant predictors for poor prognosis in stage I patients. All the benign and most of the LMP (81%) tumours were in either the p53-negative or low p53-positive category, but nearly half of the malignant tumours had high p53 expression. High p53 accumulation was found in non-mucinous, high grade and late stage tumours. For well-differentiated carcinomas, high p53 expression was a predictor of poor prognosis. However, even though high p53 expression was not associated with histological subtype, stage or the presence of residual disease, high p53 expression was not an independent predictor when all clinical parameters were combined. For all ovarian cancers, a close correlation was found between high p53 and high p16 expression. The relationship between the expression of pRB and p16 depended on tumour stage. In stage I tumours, high pRB was associated with low p16 reactivity. On the other hand, most advanced tumours showed both high pRB and high p16 reactivity. Int. J. Cancer 74:407–415, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Increased expression of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2 (CDKN2A) gene product P16INK4A in ovarian cancer is associated with progression and unfavourable prognosis

Paraffin sections from 190 epithelial ovarian tumours, including 159 malignant and 31 benign epithelial tumours, were analysed immunohistochemically for expression of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2 (CDKN2A) gene product p16INK4A (p16). Most benign tumours showed no p16 expression in the tumour cells, whereas only 11% of malignant cancers were p16 negative. A high proportion of p16-positive tumour cells was associated with advanced stage and grade, and with poor prognosis in cancer patients. For FIGO stage 1 tumours, a high proportion of p16-positive tumour cells was associated with poorer survival, suggesting that accumulation of p16 is an early event of ovarian tumorigenesis. In contrast to tumour cells, high expression of p16 in the surrounding stromal cells was not associated with the stage and grade, but was associated with longer survival. When all parameters were combined in multivariate analysis, high p16 expression in stromal cells was not an independent predictor for survival, indicating that low p16 expression in stromal cells is associated with other markers of tumour progression. High expression of p16 survival in the stromal cells of tumours from long-term survivors suggests that tumour growth is limited to some extent by factors associated with p16 expression in the matrix.

Expression of MUC1 and MUC2 mucins in epithelial ovarian tumours

This is the first study to describe the association between expression of MUC1 and MUC2 mucins and prognosis in ovarian cancer. Paraffin sections of epithelial ovarian tumours (n=182: 29 benign, 21 low malignant potential, and 132 invasive tumours) were analysed immunohistochemically for expression of MUC1 and MUC2 mucin core proteins. Most benign, low malignant potential, and invasive tumours showed high MUC1 expression in the cytoplasm. Low cytoplasmic expression of MUC1 was a predictor for good prognosis, particularly within stage III tumours. A minority of benign epithelial tumours, but most low malignant potential and invasive non-mucinous tumours, showed high MUC1 expression on the cell membrane. High apical MUC1 reactivity was associated with non-mucinous tumours. Low expression of MUC1 in the apical membrane was associated with early stage and good outcome for invasive tumours. Most benign and low malignant potential tumours, but only a minority of invasive tumours, showed MUC2 expression. MUC2 was found in non-mucinous as well as in mucinous tumours. The presence of MUC2 was inversely associated with high tumour grade but was not associated with altered survival. These results support experimental evidence that MUC1 influences the metastatic ability of ovarian cancer.

A novel DRD2 single-nucleotide polymorphism associated with schizophrenia predicts age of onset : HapMap tag-single-nucleotide polymorphism analysis

Background: Dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) is thought to be critical in regulating the dopaminergic pathway in the brain which is known to be important in the aetiology of schizophrenia. It is therefore not surprising that most antipsychotic medication acts on the Dopamine D2 receptor. DRD2 is widely expressed in brain, levels are reduced in brains of schizophrenia patients and DRD2 polymorphisms have been associated with reduced brain expression. We have previously identified a genetic variant in DRD2, rs6277 to be strongly implicated in schizophrenia susceptibility. Methods: To identity new associations in the DRD2 gene with disease status and clinical severity, we genotyped seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in DRD2 using a multiplex mass spectrometry method. SNPs were chosen using a haplotype block-based gene-tagging approach so the entire DRD2 gene was represented. Results: One polymorphism rs2734839 was found to be significantly associated with schizophrenia as well as late onset age. Individuals carrying the genetic variation were more than twice as likely to have schizophrenia compared to controls. Conclusions: Our results suggest that DRD2 genetic variation is a good indicator for schizophrenia risk and may also be used as a predictor age of onset.

Who succeeds at university? factors predicting academic performance in first year Australian university students

With the increasing diversity of students attending university, there is a growing interest in the factors predicting academic performance. This study is a prospective investigation of the academic, psychosocial, cognitive, and demographic predictors of academic performance of first year Australian university students. Questionnaires were distributed to 197 first year students 4 to 8 weeks prior to the end of semester exams and overall grade point averages were collected at semester completion. Previous academic performance was identified as the most significant predictor of university performance. Integration into university, self efficacy, and employment responsibilities were also predictive of university grades. Identifying the factors that influence academic performance can improve the targeting of interventions and support services for students at risk of academic problems.

Suspected child abuse and neglect reporting behaviour

Executuve Summary Background and Aims Child abuse and neglect is a tragedy within our community, with over 10,000 substantiated reports of abuse and neglect in Queensland in the past year. The considerable consequences of child abuse and neglect are far-reaching, substantial and can be fatal. The reporting of suspicions of child abuse or neglect is often the first step in preventing further abuse or neglect. In the State of Queensland, medical practitioners are mandated by law to report their suspicions of child abuse and neglect. However, despite this mandate many still do not report their suspicions. A 1998 study indicated that 43% of medical practitioners had, at some time, made a conscious decision to not report suspected abuse or neglect (Van Haeringen, Dadds & Armstrong, 1998). The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of beliefs about reporting suspected child abuse and neglect and the barriers to reporting suspected abuse and neglect by medical practitioners and parents and students. The findings have the potential to inform the training and education of members of the community who have a shared responsibility to protect the wellbeing of its most vulnerable members. Method In one of the largest studies of reporting behaviour in relation to suspected child abuse and neglect in Australia, we examined and compared medical practitioners’ responses with members of the community, namely parents and students. We surveyed 91 medical practitioners and 214 members of the community (102 parents and 112 students) regarding their beliefs and reporting behaviour related to suspected child abuse and neglect. We also examined reasons for not reporting suspected abuse or neglect, as well as awareness of responsibilities and the appropriate reporting procedures. To obtain such information, participants anonymously completed a comprehensive questionnaire using items from previous studies of reporting attitudes and behaviour. Executive Summary Abused Child Trust Report August 2003 5 Findings Key findings include: • The majority of medical practitioners (97%) were aware of their duty to report suspected abuse and neglect and believed they had a professional and ethical duty to do so. • A majority of parents (82%) and students (68%) also believed that they had a professional and ethical duty to report suspected abuse and neglect. • In accord with their statutory duty to report suspected abuse and neglect, 69% of medical practitioners had made a report at some point. • Sixteen percent of parents and 9% of students surveyed indicated that they had reported their suspicions of neglect and abuse. • The most endorsed belief associated with not reporting suspected child abuse and neglect was that, ‘unpleasant events would follow reporting’. • Over a quarter of medical practitioners (26%) admitted to making a decision not to report their suspicions of child abuse or neglect on at least one occasion. • Compared with previous research, there has been a decline in the number of medical practitioners who decided not to report suspected abuse or neglect from 43% (Van Haeringen et al., 1998) to 26% in the current study. • Fourteen percent of parents and 15% of students surveyed had also chosen not to report a case of suspected abuse or neglect. • Attitudes that most strongly influenced the decision to report or not report suspected abuse or neglect differed between groups (medical practitioners, parents, or students). A belief that, ‘the abuse was a single incident’ was the best predictor of non-reporting by medical practitioners, while having ‘no time to follow-up the report’ or failing to be ‘convinced of evidence of abuse’ best predicted failure to report abuse by students. A range of beliefs predicted non-reporting by parents, including the beliefs that reporting suspected abuse was ‘not their responsibility’ and ‘knowing the child had retracted their statement’. Conclusions Of major concern is that approximately 25% of medical practitioners with a mandated responsibility to report, as well as some members of the general public, revealed that they have suspected child neglect or abuse but have made the decision not to report their suspicions. Parents and students perceived the general community as having responsibility for reporting suspicions of abuse or neglect. Despite this perception, they felt that lodging a report may be overly demanding in terms of time and they had the confidence in their ability to identify child abuse and neglect. An explanation for medical practitioners deciding not to report may be based upon their optimistic belief that suspected abuse or neglect was a single incident. Our findings may best be understood from the ‘inflation of optimism’ hypothesis put forward by the Nobel Laureate, Daniel Kahneman. He suggests that in spite of rational evidence, human beings tend to make judgements based on an optimistic view rather than engaging in a rational decision-making process. In this case, despite past behaviour of abuse or neglect being the best predictor of future behaviour, medical practitioners have taken an optimistic view, choosing to believe that their suspicion of child abuse or neglect represents a single incident. The clear implication of findings in the current research is the need for the members of the general community and medical practitioners to be better appraised of the consequences of their decision-making in relation to suspicionsof child abuse and neglect. Finally findings from parents and students relating to their reporting behaviour suggest that members of the larger community represent an untapped resourcewho might, with appropriate awareness, play a more significant role in theidentification and reporting of suspected child abuse and neglect.

Predictive modelling : parents’ decision making to use online child health information to increase their understanding and/or diagnose or treat their child’s health

Abstract Background The quantum increases in home Internet access and available online health information with limited control over information quality highlight the necessity of exploring decision making processes in accessing and using online information, specifically in relation to children who do not make their health decisions. Objectives To understand the processes explaining parents’ decisions to use online health information for child health care. Methods Parents (N = 391) completed an initial questionnaire assessing the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control, as well as perceived risk, group norm, and additional demographic factors. Two months later, 187 parents completed a follow-up questionnaire assessing their decisions to use online information for their child’s health care, specifically to 1) diagnose and/or treat their child’s suspected medical condition/illness and 2) increase understanding about a diagnosis or treatment recommended by a health professional. Results Hierarchical multiple regression showed that, for both behaviours, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, (less) perceived risk, group norm, and (non) medical background were the significant predictors of intention. For parents’ use of online child health information, for both behaviours, intention was the sole significant predictor of behaviour. The findings explain 77% of the variance in parents’ intention to treat/diagnose a child health problem and 74% of the variance in their intentions to increase their understanding about child health concerns. Conclusions Understanding parents’ socio-cognitive processes that guide their use of online information for child health care is important given the increase in Internet usage and the sometimes-questionable quality of health information provided online. Findings highlight parents’ thirst for information; there is an urgent need for health professionals to provide parents with evidence-based child health websites in addition to general population education on how to evaluate the quality of online health information.

Predictors of sexually transmitted infection in Australian women : evidence from the Australian longitudinal study on women’s health

This longitudinal study examined characteristics of women diagnosed with sexually transmitted infections (STI) for the first time in their later 20s and early 30s. Participants were 6,840 women (born 1973–1978) from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Women aged 18–23 years were surveyed in 1996 (S1), 2000 (S2), 2003 (S3), and 2006 (S4). There were 269 women reporting an STI for the first time at S3 or S4. Using two multivariable logistic regression analyses (examining 18 predictor variables), these 269 women were compared (1) with 306 women who reported an STI at S2 and (2) with 5,214 women who never reported an STI across the four surveys. Women who reported an STI for the first time at S3 or S4 were less likely to have been pregnant or had a recent Pap smear compared to women reporting an STI at S2.Women reporting a first STI at S3 or S4 were less likely to have been pregnant or had a recent Pap smear compared to women reporting an STI at S2. Women were more likely to report an STI for the first time at S3 or S4 compared to women not reporting an STI at any survey if they were younger, unpartnered, had a higher number of sexual partners, had never been pregnant, were recently divorced or separated, and reported poorer access to Women’s Health or Family Planning Centres at S2. These findings demonstrate the value of longitudinal studies of sexual health over the life course beyond adolescence.

The association between objectively measured neighbourhood features and walking for transport in mid-aged adults

The aim of this paper is to examine the association between a range of objectively measured neighbourhood features and the likelihood of mid-aged adults walking for transport. Increased walking for transport would bring multiple benefits, including improved population and environmental health. As part of the baseline HABITAT study, 10,745 residents of Brisbane, Australia, aged 40–65 years, from 200 neighbourhoods were asked about the time they spent walking for transport. Walking data were collected by mail survey and the physical environmental features of neighbourhoods were compiled using a geographic information systems database. Walking for transport was categorised into four levels and the association between walking and each neighbourhood characteristic was examined using multilevel multinomial models. A number of threshold trends were evident; for example, off-road bikeways were consistently associated with walking between 60 and 150 min per week. Living within 500 m of public transit was also an important predictor but only for those who walked for less than 150 min per week. Interventions targeting these neighbourhood characteristics may lead to improved environmental quality, lower rates of overweight and obesity and associated chromic disease.

Adams-Type Methods for the Numerical Solution of Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) arise fi om physical systems where the parameters describing the system can only be estimated or are subject to noise. There has been much work done recently on developing numerical methods for solving SDEs. This paper will focus on stability issues and variable stepsize implementation techniques for numerically solving SDEs effectively. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Posttraumatic growth and posttraumatic depreciation as predictors of psychological adjustment

Informed by current trauma literature, this study explored the relationships between Posttraumatic Growth (PTG; Tedeschi & Calhoun, 1995), Posttraumatic Depreciation (PTD; Cann et al., 2010) and other post-trauma outcomes including well-being, psychological flourishing, and psychological distress. The predictive utility of PTG and PTD was also examined. The sample comprised 104 trauma survivors who completed the Posttraumatic Growth Inventory – 42 (Baker et al., 2008) and several outcome measures. As expected, PTD showed strong linear correlations with well-being, flourishing and distress, and emerged as a significant predictor of scores on such measures. However, PTG showed negligible correlations with well-being, flourishing and distress. This reaffirms that PTG and PTD measure conceptually distinct and independent dimensions of experience, which has implications for therapeutic practice.

Prediction of multilocus identity-by-descent

Previous studies have enabled exact prediction of probabilities of identity-by-descent (IBD) in randommating populations for a few loci (up to four or so), with extension to more using approximate regression methods. Here we present a precise predictor of multiple-locus IBD using simple formulas based on exact results for two loci. In particular, the probability of non-IBD X ABC at each of ordered loci A, B, and C can be well approximated by XABC = XABXBC/XB and generalizes to X123. . .k = X12X23. . .Xk-1,k/ Xk-2, where X is the probability of non-IBD at each locus. Predictions from this chain rule are very precise with population bottlenecks and migration, but are rather poorer in the presence of mutation. From these coefficients, the probabilities of multilocus IBD and non-IBD can also be computed for genomic regions as functions of population size, time, and map distances. An approximate but simple recurrence formula is also developed, which generally is less accurate than the chain rule but is more robust with mutation. Used together with the chain rule it leads to explicit equations for non-IBD in a region. The results can be applied to detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) by computing the probability of IBD at candidate loci in terms of identity-by-state at neighboring markers.

What vs how : comparing students' testing and coding skills

The well-known difficulties students exhibit when learning to program are often characterised as either difficulties in understanding the problem to be solved or difficulties in devising and coding a computational solution. It would therefore be helpful to understand which of these gives students the greatest trouble. Unit testing is a mainstay of large-scale software development and maintenance. A unit test suite serves not only for acceptance testing, but is also a form of requirements specification, as exemplified by agile programming methodologies in which the tests are developed before the corresponding program code. In order to better understand students’ conceptual difficulties with programming, we conducted a series of experiments in which students were required to write both unit tests and program code for non-trivial problems. Their code and tests were then assessed separately for correctness and ‘coverage’, respectively. The results allowed us to directly compare students’ abilities to characterise a computational problem, as a unit test suite, and develop a corresponding solution, as executable code. Since understanding a problem is a pre-requisite to solving it, we expected students’ unit testing skills to be a strong predictor of their ability to successfully implement the corresponding program. Instead, however, we found that students’testing abilities lag well behind their coding skills.

Language affects length of stay in emergency departments in Queensland public hospitals

BACKGROUND: A long length of stay (LOS) in the emergency department (ED) associated with overcrowding has been found to adversely affect the quality of ED care. The objective of this study is to determine whether patients who speak a language other than English at home have a longer LOS in EDs compared to those whose speak only English at home. METHODS: A secondary data analysis of a Queensland state-wide hospital EDs dataset (Emergency Department Information System) was conducted for the period, 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010. RESULTS: The interpreter requirement was the highest among Vietnamese speakers (23.1%) followed by Chinese (19.8%) and Arabic speakers (18.7%). There were significant differences in the distributions of the departure statuses among the language groups (Chi-squared=3236.88, P<0.001). Compared with English speakers, the Beta coeffi cient for the LOS in the EDs measured in minutes was among Vietnamese, 26.3 (95%CI: 22.1–30.5); Arabic, 10.3 (95%CI: 7.3–13.2); Spanish, 9.4 (95%CI: 7.1–11.7); Chinese, 8.6 (95%CI: 2.6–14.6); Hindi, 4.0 (95%CI: 2.2–5.7); Italian, 3.5 (95%CI: 1.6–5.4); and German, 2.7 (95%CI: 1.0–4.4). The fi nal regression model explained 17% of the variability in LOS. CONCLUSION: There is a close relationship between the language spoken at home and the LOS at EDs, indicating that language could be an important predictor of prolonged LOS in EDs and improving language services might reduce LOS and ease overcrowding in EDs in Queensland's public hospitals.