Analysis of temporary traffic control cost items in transportation construction bidding process

Temporary Traffic Control Plans (TCP’s), which provide construction phasing to maintain traffic during construction operations, are integral component of highway construction project design. Using the initial design, designers develop estimated quantities for the required TCP devices that become the basis for bids submitted by highway contractors. However, actual as-built quantities are often significantly different from the engineer’s original estimate. The total cost of TCP phasing on highway construction projects amounts to 6–10% of the total construction cost. Variations between engineer estimated quantities and final quantities contribute to reduced cost control, increased chances of cost related litigations, and bid rankings and selection. Statistical analyses of over 2000 highway construction projects were performed to determine the sources of variation, which later were used as the basis of development for an automated-hybrid prediction model that uses multiple regressions and heuristic rules to provide accurate TCP quantities and costs. The predictive accuracy of the model developed was demonstrated through several case studies.

Output feedback optimal control with contraints

In Chapters 1 through 9 of the book (with the exception of a brief discussion on observers and integral action in Section 5.5 of Chapter 5) we considered constrained optimal control problems for systems without uncertainty, that is, with no unmodelled dynamics or disturbances, and where the full state was available for measurement. More realistically, however, it is necessary to consider control problems for systems with uncertainty. This chapter addresses some of the issues that arise in this situation. As in Chapter 9, we adopt a stochastic description of uncertainty, which associates probability distributions to the uncertain elements, that is, disturbances and initial conditions. (See Section 12.6 for references to alternative approaches to model uncertainty.) When incomplete state information exists, a popular observer-based control strategy in the presence of stochastic disturbances is to use the certainty equivalence [CE] principle, introduced in Section 5.5 of Chapter 5 for deterministic systems. In the stochastic framework, CE consists of estimating the state and then using these estimates as if they were the true state in the control law that results if the problem were formulated as a deterministic problem (that is, without uncertainty). This strategy is motivated by the unconstrained problem with a quadratic objective function, for which CE is indeed the optimal solution (˚Astr¨om 1970, Bertsekas 1976). One of the aims of this chapter is to explore the issues that arise from the use of CE in RHC in the presence of constraints. We then turn to the obvious question about the optimality of the CE principle. We show that CE is, indeed, not optimal in general. We also analyse the possibility of obtaining truly optimal solutions for single input linear systems with input constraints and uncertainty related to output feedback and stochastic disturbances.We first find the optimal solution for the case of horizon N = 1, and then we indicate the complications that arise in the case of horizon N = 2. Our conclusion is that, for the case of linear constrained systems, the extra effort involved in the optimal feedback policy is probably not justified in practice. Indeed, we show by example that CE can give near optimal performance. We thus advocate this approach in real applications.

On optimal control of constrained linear systems with imperfect state information and stochastic disturbances

We address the problem of finite horizon optimal control of discrete-time linear systems with input constraints and uncertainty. The uncertainty for the problem analysed is related to incomplete state information (output feedback) and stochastic disturbances. We analyse the complexities associated with finding optimal solutions. We also consider two suboptimal strategies that could be employed for larger optimization horizons.

A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

Improved procedures for business accommodation on transportation construction projects

Highway construction projects have direct impacts on adjacent businesses. The nature and the degree of impact depend on individual business characterization and project specific factors. The type of business is also a relevant factor in predicting the impact of transportation construction projects. This paper presents the results of research focused on developing an in-depth understanding of these relationships. The study includes project case studies of three transportation construction projects in Florida. Surveys were conducted with all adjacent businesses, which were combined with analyses of the business accommodation procedures employed by State Highway Agencies (SHAs) nationwide to provide measure the efficiency of present rules. The results include an analysis of differing priorities for different classification of businesses and development of design and construction management best practices to better accommodate businesses during highway construction. A pilot project that employed business accommodation principles devised in this research, and improvements to business accommodations observed were compared to cases where no measures were taken.

Comparative analyses of change orders costs in transportation construction

Transportation construction is substantially different from other construction fields due to widespread use of unit price bidding and competitive contract awarding. Thus, the potential for change orders has been the main source of unbalanced bidding for contractors, which can be described as substantial increases in work quantity or reasonable changes to the initial design provided by the State Highway Agencies (SHAs). It is important to understand the causes of the change orders as cost related issues are the main reason for contract disputes. We have analyzed a large dataset from a major SHA to identify project related and environmental factors that affect the change order costs. The results of the study can be instrumental in assessing the increased costs associated with change orders and better management measures can be taken to mitigate their effects.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

A review of modern computational algorithms for Bayesian optimal design

Bayesian experimental design is a fast growing area of research with many real-world applications. As computational power has increased over the years, so has the development of simulation-based design methods, which involve a number of algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo and approximate Bayes methods, facilitating more complex design problems to be solved. The Bayesian framework provides a unified approach for incorporating prior information and/or uncertainties regarding the statistical model with a utility function which describes the experimental aims. In this paper, we provide a general overview on the concepts involved in Bayesian experimental design, and focus on describing some of the more commonly used Bayesian utility functions and methods for their estimation, as well as a number of algorithms that are used to search over the design space to find the Bayesian optimal design. We also discuss other computational strategies for further research in Bayesian optimal design.

Optimal Irrigation and N-fertilizer Management for Sustainable Winter Wheat Production in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

The efficiency of the nitrogen (N) application rates 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha−1 in combination with low or medium water levels in the cultivation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Kupava was studied for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The results show an impact of the initial soil Nmin (NO3-N + NH4-N) levels measured at wheat seeding on the N fertilizer rates applied. When the Nmin content in the 0–50 cm soil layer was lower than 10 mg kg−1 during wheat seeding in 2005, the N rate of 180 kg ha−1 was found to be the most effective for achieving high grain yields of high quality. With a higher Nmin content of about 30 mg kg−1 as was the case in the 2006 season, 120 kg N ha−1 was determined as being the technical and economical optimum. The temporal course of N2O emissions of winter wheat cultivation for the two water-level studies shows that emissions were strongly influenced by irrigation and N-fertilization. Extremely high emissions were measured immediately after fertilizer application events that were combined with irrigation events. Given the high impact of N-fertilizer and irrigation-water management on N2O emissions, it can be concluded that present N-management practices should be modified to mitigate emissions of N2O and to achieve higher fertilizer use efficiency.

Identification of optimal epitopes for Plasmodium falciparum rapid diagnostic tests that target histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) represent important tools to diagnose malaria infection. To improve understanding of the variable performance of RDTs that detect the major target in Plasmodium falciparum, namely, histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2), and to inform the design of better tests, we undertook detailed mapping of the epitopes recognized by eight HRP-specific monoclonal antibodies (MAbs). To investigate the geographic skewing of this polymorphic protein, we analyzed the distribution of these epitopes in parasites from geographically diverse areas. To identify an ideal amino acid motif for a MAb to target in HRP2 and in the related protein HRP3, we used a purpose-designed script to perform bioinformatic analysis of 448 distinct gene sequences from pfhrp2 and from 99 sequences from the closely related gene pfhrp3. The frequency and distribution of these motifs were also compared to the MAb epitopes. Heat stability testing of MAbs immobilized on nitrocellulose membranes was also performed. Results of these experiments enabled the identification of MAbs with the most desirable characteristics for inclusion in RDTs, including copy number and coverage of target epitopes, geographic skewing, heat stability, and match with the most abundant amino acid motifs identified. This study therefore informs the selection of MAbs to include in malaria RDTs as well as in the generation of improved MAbs that should improve the performance of HRP-detecting malaria RDTs.

License scheme : an optimal waste management policy under asymmetric information

A system requiring a waste management license from an enforcement agency has been introduced in many countries. A license system is usually coupled with fines, a manifest, and a disposal tax. However, these policy devices have not been integrated into an optimal policy. In this paper we derive an optimal waste management policy by using those policy devices. Waste management policies are met with three difficult problems: asymmetric information, the heterogeneity of waste management firms, and non-compliance by waste management firms and waste disposers. The optimal policy in this paper overcomes all three problems.

Making optimal and justifiable asset maintenance decisions

Maintenance decisions for large-scale asset systems are often beyond an asset manager's capacity to handle. The presence of a number of possibly conflicting decision criteria, the large number of possible maintenance policies, and the reality of budget constraints often produce complex problems, where the underlying trade-offs are not apparent to the asset manager. This paper presents the decision support tool "JOB" (Justification and Optimisation of Budgets), which has been designed to help asset managers of large systems assess, select, interpret and optimise the effects of their maintenance policies in the presence of limited budgets. This decision support capability is realized through an efficient, scalable backtracking- based algorithm for the optimisation of maintenance policies, while enabling the user to view a number of solutions near this optimum and explore tradeoffs with other decision criteria. To assist the asset manager in selecting between various policies, JOB also provides the capability of Multiple Criteria Decision Making. In this paper, the JOB tool is presented and its applicability for the maintenance of a complex power plant system.