Deriving optimal fishing effort for managing Australia's Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery with aggregated effort data

Deriving an estimate of optimal fishing effort or even an approximate estimate is very valuable for managing fisheries with multiple target species. The most challenging task associated with this is allocating effort to individual species when only the total effort is recorded. Spatial information on the distribution of each species within a fishery can be used to justify the allocations, but often such information is not available. To determine the long-term overall effort required to achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum economic yield (MEY), we consider three methods for allocating effort: (i) optimal allocation, which optimally allocates effort among target species; (ii) fixed proportions, which chooses proportions based on past catch data; and (iii) economic allocation, which splits effort based on the expected catch value of each species. Determining the overall fishing effort required to achieve these management objectives is a maximizing problem subject to constraints due to economic and social considerations. We illustrated the approaches using a case study of the Moreton Bay Prawn Trawl Fishery in Queensland (Australia). The results were consistent across the three methods. Importantly, our analysis demonstrated the optimal total effort was very sensitive to daily fishing costs-the effort ranged from 9500-11 500 to 6000-7000, 4000 and 2500 boat-days, using daily cost estimates of $0, $500, $750, and $950, respectively. The zero daily cost corresponds to the MSY, while a daily cost of $750 most closely represents the actual present fishing cost. Given the recent debate on which costs should be factored into the analyses for deriving MEY, our findings highlight the importance of including an appropriate cost function for practical management advice. The approaches developed here could be applied to other multispecies fisheries where only aggregated fishing effort data are recorded, as the literature on this type of modelling is sparse.

Optimal sign tests for data from ranked set samples

This paper considers the one-sample sign test for data obtained from general ranked set sampling when the number of observations for each rank are not necessarily the same, and proposes a weighted sign test because observations with different ranks are not identically distributed. The optimal weight for each observation is distribution free and only depends on its associated rank. It is shown analytically that (1) the weighted version always improves the Pitman efficiency for all distributions; and (2) the optimal design is to select the median from each ranked set.

An optimal design for screening trials

Yao, Begg, and Livingston (1996, Biometrics 52, 992-1001) considered the optimal group size for testing a series of potentially therapeutic agents to identify a promising one as soon as possible for given error rates. The number of patients to be tested with each agent was fixed as the group size. We consider a sequential design that allows early acceptance and rejection, and we provide an optimal strategy to minimize the sample sizes (patients) required using Markov decision processes. The minimization is under the constraints of the two types (false positive and false negative) of error probabilities, with the Lagrangian multipliers corresponding to the cost parameters for the two types of errors. Numerical studies indicate that there can be a substantial reduction in the number of patients required.

Optimal designs for evaluating a series of treatments

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification of the error rates in practice. The reformulation also allows us to use conventional designs from published tables or standard computer programs to design trials for a series of treatments. We illustrate these using a study in soft tissue sarcoma.

ESR measurements of the partitioning of some new spin probes in n-octanol-water

The stable free radical 1,1,3,3-tetramethylisoindolin-2-yloxyl (TMIO) has proved to be very suitable for use as a spin probe for a number of applications. Because it is soluble mainly in non-polar liquids, there is a need for new derivatives that can be used in a variety of environments. This has been done by introducing substituents in the 5-position of the aromatic ring, namely carboxyl (CTMIO), trimethylamino (TMTMIOI) and sodium sulphonate (NaTMIOS). An accurate ESR method was developed for the measurement of partition coefficients in n-octanol–water. For comparison purposes the method was also applied to some Tempo derivatives. The effect of temperature on the rotational correlation times and the nitrogen-14 hyperfine coupling constant of some of the spin probes was investigated. There is evidence for dimerization of CTMIO to form a biradical

A near Optimal Cane Rail Scheduler under Limited and Unlimited Capacity Constraints

Australia is the world’s third largest exporter of raw sugar after Brazil and Thailand, with around $2.0 billion in export earnings. Transport systems play a vital role in the raw sugar production process by transporting the sugarcane crop between farms and mills. In 2013, 87 per cent of sugarcane was transported to mills by cane railway. The total cost of sugarcane transport operations is very high. Over 35% of the total cost of sugarcane production in Australia is incurred in cane transport. A cane railway network mainly involves single track sections and multiple track sections used as passing loops or sidings. The cane railway system performs two main tasks: delivering empty bins from the mill to the sidings for filling by harvesters; and collecting the full bins of cane from the sidings and transporting them to the mill. A typical locomotive run involves an empty train (locomotive and empty bins) departing from the mill, traversing some track sections and delivering bins at specified sidings. The locomotive then, returns to the mill, traversing the same track sections in reverse order, collecting full bins along the way. In practice, a single track section can be occupied by only one train at a time, while more than one train can use a passing loop (parallel sections) at a time. The sugarcane transport system is a complex system that includes a large number of variables and elements. These elements work together to achieve the main system objectives of satisfying both mill and harvester requirements and improving the efficiency of the system in terms of low overall costs. These costs include delay, congestion, operating and maintenance costs. An effective cane rail scheduler will assist the traffic officers at the mill to keep a continuous supply of empty bins to harvesters and full bins to the mill with a minimum cost. This paper addresses the cane rail scheduling problem under rail siding capacity constraints where limited and unlimited siding capacities were investigated with different numbers of trains and different train speeds. The total operating time as a function of the number of trains, train shifts and a limited number of cane bins have been calculated for the different siding capacity constraints. A mathematical programming approach has been used to develop a new scheduler for the cane rail transport system under limited and unlimited constraints. The new scheduler aims to reduce the total costs associated with the cane rail transport system that are a function of the number of bins and total operating costs. The proposed metaheuristic techniques have been used to find near optimal solutions of the cane rail scheduling problem and provide different possible solutions to avoid being stuck in local optima. A numerical investigation and sensitivity analysis study is presented to demonstrate that high quality solutions for large scale cane rail scheduling problems are obtainable in a reasonable time. Keywords: Cane railway, mathematical programming, capacity, metaheuristics

Deriving optimal competition in infrastructure procurement

Typically only a limited number of consortiums are able to competitively bid for Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects. Consequently, this may lead to oligopoly pricing constraints and ineffective competition, thus engendering ex ante market failure. In addressing this issue, this paper aims to determine the optimal number of bidders required to ensure a healthy level of competition is available to procure major infrastructure projects. The theories of Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm; Game Theory and Auction Theory and Transaction Cost Economics are reviewed and discussed and used to produce an optimal level of competition for major infrastructure procurement, that prevents market failure ex ante (lack of competition) and market failure ex post (due to asymmetric lock-in).

Estimation and partitioning of polygenic variation captured by common SNPs for Alzheimer's disease, multiple sclerosis and endometriosis

Common diseases such as endometriosis (ED), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) account for a significant proportion of the health care burden in many countries. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for these diseases have identified a number of individual genetic variants contributing to the risk of those diseases. However, the effect size for most variants is small and collectively the known variants explain only a small proportion of the estimated heritability. We used a linear mixed model to fit all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) simultaneously, and estimated genetic variances on the liability scale using SNPs from GWASs in unrelated individuals for these three diseases. For each of the three diseases, case and control samples were not all genotyped in the same laboratory. We demonstrate that a careful analysis can obtain robust estimates, but also that insufficient quality control (QC) of SNPs can lead to spurious results and that too stringent QC is likely to remove real genetic signals. Our estimates show that common SNPs on commercially available genotyping chips capture significant variation contributing to liability for all three diseases. The estimated proportion of total variation tagged by all SNPs was 0.26 (SE 0.04) for ED, 0.24 (SE 0.03) for AD and 0.30 (SE 0.03) for MS. Further, we partitioned the genetic variance explained into five categories by a minor allele frequency (MAF), by chromosomes and gene annotation. We provide strong evidence that a substantial proportion of variation in liability is explained by common SNPs, and thereby give insights into the genetic architecture of the diseases.

Knowledge discovery from tree databases using balanced optimal search

This research is a step forward in discovering knowledge from databases of complex structure like tree or graph. Several data mining algorithms are developed based on a novel representation called Balanced Optimal Search for extracting implicit, unknown and potentially useful information like patterns, similarities and various relationships from tree data, which are also proved to be advantageous in analysing big data. This thesis focuses on analysing unordered tree data, which is robust to data inconsistency, irregularity and swift information changes, hence, in the era of big data it becomes a popular and widely used data model.

Patterns of entrepreneurial career development: An optimal matching analysis approach

Longitudinal studies of entrepreneurial career development are rare, and current knowledge of self-employment patterns and their relationships with individual difference characteristics is limited. In this study, the authors analyzed employment data from a subsample of 514 participants from the German Socio-Economic Panel study (1984–2008). Results of an optimal matching analysis indicated that a continuous self-employment pattern could be distinguished from four alternative employment patterns (change from employment to self-employment, full-time employees, part-time employees, and farmers). Results of a multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that certain socio-demographic characteristics (i.e., age and gender) and personality characteristics (i.e., conscientiousness and risk-taking propensity) were related to the likelihood of following a continuous self-employment pattern compared to the other employment patterns. Implications for future research on entrepreneurial career development are discussed.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

A closed-form optimal tuning of mass dampers for one degree-of-freedom systems under rotating unbalance forcing

This paper is focused on the study of a vibrating system forced by a rotating unbalance and coupled to a tuned mass damper (TMD). The analysis of the dynamic response of the entire system is used to define the parameters of such device in order to achieve optimal damping properties. The inertial forcing due to the rotating unbalance depends quadratically on the forcing frequency and it leads to optimal tuning parameters that differ from classical values obtained for pure harmonic forcing. Analytical results demonstrate that frequency and damping ratios, as a function of the mass parameter, should be higher than classical optimal parameters. The analytical study is carried out for the undamped primary system, and numerically investigated for the damped primary system. We show that, for practical applications, proper TMD tuning allows to achieve a reduction in the steady-state response of about 20% with respect to the response achieved with a classically tuned damper. Copyright © 2015 by ASME.

Denitrification losses from an intensively managed sub-tropical pasture: Impact of soil moisture on the partitioning of N2 and N2O emissions

Intensively managed pastures in subtropical Australia under dairy production are nitrogen (N) loaded agro-ecosystems, with an increased pool of N available for denitrification. The magnitude of denitrification losses and N2:N2O partitioning in these agro-ecosystems is largely unknown, representing a major uncertainty when estimating total N loss and replacement. This study investigated the influence of different soil moisture contents on N2 and N2O emissions from a subtropical dairy pasture in Queensland, Australia. Intact soil cores were incubated over 15 days at 80% and 100% water-filled pore space (WFPS), after the application of 15N labelled nitrate, equivalent to 50 kg N ha−1. This setup enabled the direct quantification of N2 and N2O emissions following fertilisation using the 15N gas flux method. The main product of denitrification in both treatments was N2. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 8 ± 1 at 80% WFPS and a factor of 17 ± 2 at 100% WFPS. The total amount of N-N2 lost over the incubation period was 21.27 kg ± 2.10 N2-N ha−1 at 80% WFPS and 25.26 kg ± 2.79 kg ha−1 at 100% WFPS respectively. N2 emissions remained high at 100% WFPS, while related N2O emissions decreased. At 80% WFPS, N2 emissions increased constantly over time while N2O fluxes declined. Consequently, N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios increased over the incubation period in both treatments. N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios responded significantly to soil moisture, confirming WFPS as a key driver of denitrification. The substantial amount of fertiliser lost as N2 reveals the agronomic significance of denitrification as a major pathway of N loss for sub-tropical pastures at high WFPS and may explain the low fertiliser N use efficiency observed for these agro-ecosystems.

Optimal foreign aid and tariffs

This paper investigates the optimal choice of foreign aid when trade policies are decided in a non-cooperative fashion. Three alternative scenarios, depending on the timing of the actions and on whether aid is tied, are analyzed. It is shown that, in the case where aid is decided before tariffs, untied aid can lead to the reduction of the recipient's optimal trade tax. When the donor can tie the aid to a reduction in the recipient's tariff, the optimal aid level is always positive and the world can always achieve a Pareto-efficient equilibrium.