204 resultados para Nexo causal
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Purpose Potential positive associations between youth physical activity and wellness scores could emphasize the value of youth physical activity engagement and promotion interventions, beyond the many established physiological and psychological benefits of increased physical activity. The purpose of this study was to explore the associations between adolescents' self-reported physical activity and wellness. Methods This investigation included 493 adolescents (165 males and 328 females) aged between 12 and 15 years. The participants were recruited from six secondary schools of varying socioeconomic status within a metropolitan area. Students were administered the Five-Factor Wellness Inventory and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents to assess both wellness and physical activity, respectively. Results Data indicated that significant associations between physical activity and wellness existed. Self-reported physical activity was shown to be positively associated with four dimensions including friendship, gender identity, spirituality, and exercise—the higher order factor physical self and total wellness, and negatively associated with self-care, self-worth, love, and cultural identity. Conclusion This study suggests that relationships exist between self-reported physical activity and various elements of wellness. Future research should use controlled trials of physical activity and wellness to establish causal links among youth populations. Understanding the nature of these relationships, including causality, has implications for the justification of youth physical activity promotion interventions and the development of youth physical activity engagement programs.
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1. Stream ecosystem health monitoring and reporting need to be developed in the context of an adaptive process that is clearly linked to identified values and objectives, is informed by rigorous science, guides management actions and is responsive to changing perceptions and values of stakeholders. To be effective, monitoring programmes also need to be underpinned by an understanding of the probable causal factors that influence the condition or health of important environmental assets and values. This is often difficult in stream and river ecosystems where multiple stressors, acting at different spatial and temporal scales, interact to affect water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem processes. 2. In this article, we describe the development of a freshwater monitoring programme in South East Queensland, Australia, and how this has been used to report on ecosystem health at a regional scale and to guide investments in catchment protection and rehabilitation. We also discuss some of the emerging science needs to identify the appropriate scale and spatial arrangement of rehabilitation to maximise river ecosystem health outcomes and, at the same time, derive other benefits downstream. 3. An objective process was used to identify potential indicators of stream ecosystem health and then test these across a known catchment land-use disturbance gradient. From the 75 indicators initially tested, 22 from five indicator groups (water quality, ecosystem metabolism, nutrient cycling, invertebrates and fish) responded strongly to the disturbance gradient, and 16 were subsequently recommended for inclusion in the monitoring programme. The freshwater monitoring programme was implemented in 2002, funded by local and State government authorities, and currently involves the assessment of over 120 sites, twice per year. This information, together with data from a similar programme on the region's estuarine and coastal marine waters, forms the basis of an annual report card that is presented in a public ceremony to local politicians and the broader community. 4. Several key lessons from the SEQ Healthy Waterways Programme are likely to be transferable to other regional programmes aimed at improving aquatic ecosystem health, including the importance of a shared common vision, the involvement of committed individuals, a cooperative approach, the need for defensible science and effective communication. 5. Thematic implications: this study highlights the use of conceptual models and objective testing of potential indicators against a known disturbance gradient to develop a freshwater ecosystem health monitoring programme that can diagnose the probable causes of degradation from multiple stressors and identify the appropriate spatial scale for rehabilitation or protection. This approach can lead to more targeted management investments in catchment protection and rehabilitation, greater public confidence that limited funds are being well spent and better outcomes for stream and river ecosystem health.
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1. Biodiversity, water quality and ecosystem processes in streams are known to be influenced by the terrestrial landscape over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Lumped attributes (i.e. per cent land use) are often used to characterise the condition of the catchment; however, they are not spatially explicit and do not account for the disproportionate influence of land located near the stream or connected by overland flow. 2. We compared seven landscape representation metrics to determine whether accounting for the spatial proximity and hydrological effects of land use can be used to account for additional variability in indicators of stream ecosystem health. The landscape metrics included the following: a lumped metric, four inverse-distance-weighted (IDW) metrics based on distance to the stream or survey site and two modified IDW metrics that also accounted for the level of hydrologic activity (HA-IDW). Ecosystem health data were obtained from the Ecological Health Monitoring Programme in Southeast Queensland, Australia and included measures of fish, invertebrates, physicochemistry and nutrients collected during two seasons over 4 years. Linear models were fitted to the stream indicators and landscape metrics, by season, and compared using an information-theoretic approach. 3. Although no single metric was most suitable for modelling all stream indicators, lumped metrics rarely performed as well as other metric types. Metrics based on proximity to the stream (IDW and HA-IDW) were more suitable for modelling fish indicators, while the HA-IDW metric based on proximity to the survey site generally outperformed others for invertebrates, irrespective of season. There was consistent support for metrics based on proximity to the survey site (IDW or HA-IDW) for all physicochemical indicators during the dry season, while a HA-IDW metric based on proximity to the stream was suitable for five of the six physicochemical indicators in the post-wet season. Only one nutrient indicator was tested and results showed that catchment area had a significant effect on the relationship between land use metrics and algal stable isotope ratios in both seasons. 4. Spatially explicit methods of landscape representation can clearly improve the predictive ability of many empirical models currently used to study the relationship between landscape, habitat and stream condition. A comparison of different metrics may provide clues about causal pathways and mechanistic processes behind correlative relationships and could be used to target restoration efforts strategically.
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In this chapter we will make the transition towards the design of business models and the related critical issues. We develop a model that helps us understand the causalities that play a role in understanding the viability and feasibility of the business models, i.e. long-term profitability and market adoption. We argue that designing viable business models requires balancing the requirements and interests of the actors involved, within and between the various business model domains. Requirements in the service domain guide the design choices in the technology domain, which in turn affect network formation and the financial arrangements. It is important to understand the Critical Design Issues (CDIs) involved in business models and their interdependencies. In this chapter, we present the Critical Design Issues involved in designing mobile service business models, and demonstrate how they are linked to the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) with regard to business model viability. This results in a causal model for understanding business model viability, as well as providing grounding for the business model design approach outlined in Chapter 5.
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A significant number of privatizations utilized to operate and maintain critical networked infrastructures have failed to meet contractual expectations and the expectations of the community. The author carried out empirical research ex-ploring four urban water systems. This research revealed that of the four forms of privatization the alliance form was particularly suited to the stewardship of an ur-ban water system. The question then is whether these findings from urban water can be generalised to O&M of infrastructure generally. The answer is increasingly important as governments seek financial sustainability through reapplying the contestability strategy and outsource and privatise further services and activities. This paper first examines the issues encountered with O & M privatisations. Second the findings as to the stewardship achieved by the four case study water systems are unpacked with particular focus upon the alliance form. Third the key variables which were found to have distinct causal links to the stewardship-like behaviour of the private participants in the Alliance case study are described. Fourth the variables which may be crucial to the successful application of the alliance form to the broader range of infrastructures are separated out. Fifth this paper then sets the path for research into these crucial features of the alliance form.
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To identify and categorize complex stimuli such as familiar objects or speech, the human brain integrates information that is abstracted at multiple levels from its sensory inputs. Using cross-modal priming for spoken words and sounds, this functional magnetic resonance imaging study identified 3 distinct classes of visuoauditory incongruency effects: visuoauditory incongruency effects were selective for 1) spoken words in the left superior temporal sulcus (STS), 2) environmental sounds in the left angular gyrus (AG), and 3) both words and sounds in the lateral and medial prefrontal cortices (IFS/mPFC). From a cognitive perspective, these incongruency effects suggest that prior visual information influences the neural processes underlying speech and sound recognition at multiple levels, with the STS being involved in phonological, AG in semantic, and mPFC/IFS in higher conceptual processing. In terms of neural mechanisms, effective connectivity analyses (dynamic causal modeling) suggest that these incongruency effects may emerge via greater bottom-up effects from early auditory regions to intermediate multisensory integration areas (i.e., STS and AG). This is consistent with a predictive coding perspective on hierarchical Bayesian inference in the cortex where the domain of the prediction error (phonological vs. semantic) determines its regional expression (middle temporal gyrus/STS vs. AG/intraparietal sulcus).
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The value of information technology (IT) is often realized when continuously being used after users’ initial acceptance. However, previous research on continuing IT usage is limited for dismissing the importance of mental goals in directing users’ behaviors and for inadequately accommodating the group context of users. This in-progress paper offers a synthesis of several literature to conceptualize continuing IT usage as multilevel constructs and to view IT usage behavior as directed and energized by a set of mental goals. Drawing from the self-regulation theory in the social psychology, this paper proposes a process model, positioning continuing IT usage as multiple-goal pursuit. An agent-based modeling approach is suggested to further explore causal and analytical implications of the proposed process model.
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This paper describes a safety data recording and analysis system that has been developed to capture safety occurrences including precursors using high-definition forward-facing video from train cabs and data from other train-borne systems. The paper describes the data processing model and how events detected through data analysis are related to an underlying socio-technical model of accident causation. The integrated approach to safety data recording and analysis insures systemic factors that condition, influence or potentially contribute to an occurrence are captured both for safety occurrences and precursor events, providing a rich tapestry of antecedent causal factors that can significantly improve learning around accident causation. This can ultimately provide benefit to railways through the development of targeted and more effective countermeasures, better risk models and more effective use and prioritization of safety funds. Level crossing occurrences are a key focus in this paper with data analysis scenarios describing causal factors around near-miss occurrences. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the system can also be applied to other types of railway safety occurrences.
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Both environmental economists and policy makers have shown a great deal of interest in the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency. In line with the modern resources available, however, no contribution is brought to the environmental economics field with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) application, which enables simulation from a distribution of a Markov chain and simulating from the chain until it approaches equilibrium. The probability density functions gained prominence with the advantages over classical statistical methods in its simultaneous inference and incorporation of any prior information on all model parameters. This paper concentrated on this point with the application of MCMC to the database of China, the largest developing country with rapid economic growth and serious environmental pollution in recent years. The variables cover the economic output and pollution abatement cost from the year 1992 to 2003. We test the causal direction between pollution abatement cost and environmental efficiency with MCMC simulation. We found that the pollution abatement cost causes an increase in environmental efficiency through the algorithm application, which makes it conceivable that the environmental policy makers should make more substantial measures to reduce pollution in the near future.
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Road asset managers are seeking analysis of the whole road network to supplement statistical analyses of small subsets of homogeneous roadway. This study outlines the use of data mining capable of analyzing the wide range of situations found on the network, with a focus on the role of skid resistance in the cause of crashes. Results from the analyses show that on non-crash-prone roads with low crash rates, skid resistance contributes only in a minor way, whereas on high-crash roadways, skid resistance often contributes significantly in the calculation of the crash rate. The results provide evidence supporting a causal relationship between skid resistance and crashes and highlight the importance of the role of skid resistance in decision making in road asset management.
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In today’s world of information-driven society, many studies are exploring usefulness and ease of use of the technology. The research into personalizing next-generation user interface is also ever increasing. A better understanding of factors that influence users’ perception of web search engine performance would contribute in achieving this. This study measures and examines how users’ perceived level of prior knowledge and experience influence their perceived level of satisfaction of using the web search engines, and how their perceived level of satisfaction affects their perceived intention to reuse the system. 50 participants from an Australian university participated in the current study, where they performed three search tasks and completed survey questionnaires. A research model was constructed to test the proposed hypotheses. Correlation and regression analyses results indicated a significant correlation between (1) users’ prior level of experience and their perceived level of satisfaction in using the web search engines, and (2) their perceived level of satisfaction in using the systems and their perceived intention to reuse the systems. A theoretical model is proposed to illustrate the causal relationships. The implications and limitations of the study are also discussed.
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The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.
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Recent modelling of socio-economic costs by the Australian railway industry in 2010 has estimated the cost of level crossing accidents to exceed AU$116 million annually. To better understand the causal factors of these accidents, a video analytics application is being developed to automatically detect near-miss incidents using forward facing videos from trains. As near-miss events occur more frequently than collisions, by detecting these occurrences there will be more safety data available for analysis. The application that is being developed will improve the objectivity of near-miss reporting by providing quantitative data about the position of vehicles at level crossings through the automatic analysis of video footage. In this paper we present a novel method for detecting near-miss occurrences at railway level crossings from video data of trains. Our system detects and localizes vehicles at railway level crossings. It also detects the position of railways to calculate the distance of the detected vehicles to the railway centerline. The system logs the information about the position of the vehicles and railway centerline into a database for further analysis by the safety data recording and analysis system, to determine whether or not the event is a near-miss. We present preliminary results of our system on a dataset of videos taken from a train that passed through 14 railway level crossings. We demonstrate the robustness of our system by showing the results of our system on day and night videos.
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The HOXB13 gene has been implicated in prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility. We performed a high resolution fine-mapping analysis to comprehensively evaluate the association between common genetic variation across the HOXB genetic locus at 17q21 and PrCa risk. This involved genotyping 700 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array (iCOGS) followed by imputation of 3195 SNPs in 20,440 PrCa cases and 21,469 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. We identified a cluster of highly correlated common variants situated within or closely upstream of HOXB13 that were significantly associated with PrCa risk, described by rs117576373 (OR 1.30, P = 2.62×10(-14)). Additional genotyping, conditional regression and haplotype analyses indicated that the newly identified common variants tag a rare, partially correlated coding variant in the HOXB13 gene (G84E, rs138213197), which has been identified recently as a moderate penetrance PrCa susceptibility allele. The potential for GWAS associations detected through common SNPs to be driven by rare causal variants with higher relative risks has long been proposed; however, to our knowledge this is the first experimental evidence for this phenomenon of synthetic association contributing to cancer susceptibility.
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Background Brominated flame retardants (BFRs), are chemicals widely used in consumer products including electronics, vehicles, plastics and textiles to reduce flammability. Experimental animal studies have confirmed that these compounds may interfere with thyroid hormone homeostasis and neurodevelopment but to date health effects in humans have not been systematically examined. Objectives To conduct a systematic review of studies on the health impacts of exposure to BFRs in humans, with a particular focus on children. Methods A systematic review was conducted using the Medline and EMBASE electronic databases up to 1 February 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies exploring the relationship between BFR exposure and various health outcomes were included. Results In total, 36 epidemiological studies meeting the pre-determined inclusion criteria were included. Plausible outcomes associated with BFR exposure include diabetes, neurobehavioral and developmental disorders, cancer, reproductive health effects and alteration in thyroid function. Evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to BFRs and health outcomes was evaluated within the Bradford Hill framework. Conclusion Although there is suggestive evidence that exposure to BFRs is harmful to health, further epidemiological investigations particularly among children, and long-term monitoring and surveillance of chemical impacts on humans are required to confirm these relationships.