On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.

Compass points : the locations, landscapes and coordinates of identities in contemporary performance making : proceedings of the Australasian Association for Theatre, Drama & Performance Studies (ADSA) Conference 2012

Compass Points: The Locations, Landscapes and Coordinates of Identities' the Australasian Association for Theatre, Drama and Performance Studies (ADSA) Conference 2012 was held at Queensland University of Technology, July 3-6 2012. The Conference was sponsored by the Australasian Association for Theatre, Drama and Performance Studies (ADSA), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Ian Potter Foundation, Arts Queensland, La Boite Theatre Company and Queensland Theatre Company. The papers selected for this collection represent a small sample of the scope, depth and diversity of scholarship presented at the conference - they cover a range of genres, cultures and contexts in contemporary performance making from autobiography, to playwrighting, to public space performance and beyond. The papers collected have been peer-reviewed to Australia’s Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST) standards - each has been subject to two blind reviews, followed by acceptance, rejection or revision, and editing of accepted papers - by colleagues from Australasia and overseas. The review process for the conference publication was separate from the review process for acceptance of abstracts for the actual conference presentations. The conference convenors, Bree Hadley and Caroline Heim, edited the collection, and would like to thank all those who gave their time to advise on the peer review process and act as reviewers - Tom Burvill, Christine Comans, Sean Edgecomb, Angela Campbell, Natalie Lazaroo, Jo Loth, Meg Mumford, Ulrike Garde, Laura Ginters, Andre Bastian, Sam Trubridge, Delyse Ryan, Georgia Seffrin, Gillian Arrighi, Rand Hazou, Rob Pensalfini, Sue Fenty-Studham, Mark Radvan, Rob Conkie, Kris Plummer, Lisa Warrington, Kate Flaherty, Bryoni Tresize, Janys Hayes, Lisa Warrington, Teresa Izzard, Kim Durban, Veronica Kelly, Adrian Keirnander, James Davenport, Julie Robson and others. We, and the authors, appreciate the rigour and care with which peers have approached the scholarship presented here. This collection was published in final form on July 3rd 2012, the first day of the ADSA Conference 2012.

Performance characterisation of a constructed wetland

Performance of a constructed wetland is commonly reported as variable due to the site specific nature of influential factors. This paper discusses outcomes from an in-depth study which characterised treatment performance of a wetland based on the variation in runoff regime. The study included a comprehensive field monitoring of a well established constructed wetland in Gold Coast, Australia. Samples collected at the inlet and outlet was tested for Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP). Pollutant concentrations in the outflow were found to be consistent irrespective of the variation in inflow water quality. The analysis revealed two different treatment characteristics for events with different rainfall depths. TSS and TN load reduction is strongly influenced by hydraulic retention time where performance is higher for rainfall events below the design event. For small events, treatment performance is higher at the beginning of the event and gradually decreased during the course of the event. For large events, the treatment performance is comparatively poor at the beginning and improved during the course of the event. The analysis also confirmed the variable treatment trends for different pollutant types.

Smoking status as a moderator of the association between food insecurity and decreased fruit and vegetable consumption

Food insecurity is the inadequate access to, or availability of, sufficient amounts of nutritious, culturally-appropriate and safe foods, or the inability to acquire such foods by socially acceptable means. Food insecurity has been shown to be associated with poor dietary intakes and poor health status. Recently, evidence has emerged suggesting increased rates of food insecurity among those with substance abuse problems, including those who smoke. This cross-sectional study investigates the potential moderating effect of smoking on the association between food insecurity and fruit and vegetable intakes among the Australian population, using regression analyses. Participants were adults 18 years and older participating in the 2004/05 National Health Survey (n = 19,500). Those from food insecure households were up to two-times more likely to report inadequate fruit and vegetable intakes compared to those who were food secure. Those who smoked were nearly six times more likely to report being food insecure, and up to three-times more likely to report inadequate fruit and vegetable intakes, compared to their non-smoking counterparts. Further analyses revealed a marked decline in the strength of the association between food insecurity and fruit consumption with the addition of smoking status into a regression model. These findings have important implications for the development of policy and interventions to address food insecurity, suggesting that those from food insecure households are less likely to comply with national dietary recommendations, and that this may in part be moderated by smoking status.

A multivariate approach to the identification of surrogate parameters for heavy metals in stormwater

Stormwater is a potential and readily available alternative source for potable water in urban areas. However, its direct use is severely constrained by the presence of toxic pollutants, such as heavy metals (HMs). The presence of HMs in stormwater is of concern because of their chronic toxicity and persistent nature. In addition to human health impacts, metals can contribute to adverse ecosystem health impact on receiving waters. Therefore, the ability to predict the levels of HMs in stormwater is crucial for monitoring stormwater quality and for the design of effective treatment systems. Unfortunately, the current laboratory methods for determining HM concentrations are resource intensive and time consuming. In this paper, applications of multivariate data analysis techniques are presented to identify potential surrogate parameters which can be used to determine HM concentrations in stormwater. Accordingly, partial least squares was applied to identify a suite of physicochemical parameters which can serve as indicators of HMs. Datasets having varied characteristics, such as land use and particle size distribution of solids, were analyzed to validate the efficacy of the influencing parameters. Iron, manganese, total organic carbon, and inorganic carbon were identified as the predominant parameters that correlate with the HM concentrations. The practical extension of the study outcomes to urban stormwater management is also discussed.

Proceedings of the Interior Space in Other Places : An IDEA [Interior Design/Interior Architecture Educators Association] Symposium [Edited Volume of Proceedings]

Conference curatorial outline The focus of this symposium was to question whether interior design is changing relative to local conditions, and the effect globalization has on the performance of regional, particularly Southern hemisphere identities. The intention being to understand how theory and practice is transposed to ‘distant lands’, and how ideas shift from one place to another. To this extent the symposium invited papers on the export, translation and adoption of theories and practices of interior design to differing climates, cultures, and landscapes. This process, sometimes referred to as a shift from ‘the centre to the margins’, seeks new perspectives on the adoption of European and US design ideas abroad, as well as their return to their place of origin. Papers were invited from a range of perspectives including the export of ideas/attitudes to interior spaces, history of interior spaces abroad, and the adoption of ideas/processes to new conditions. Paralleling this trafficking of ideas are broader observations about interior space that emerge through specificity of place. These include new and emerging directions and differences in our understanding of interiority; both real and virtual, and an ever-changing relationship to city, suburb and country. Keeping within the Symposium theme the intention was to examine other places, particularly on the margins of the discipline’s domain. Semantic slippage aside, there are a range of approaches that engage outside events and practices enabling a transdisciplinary practice that draws from other philosophical and theoretical frameworks. Moreover as the field expands and new territories are opened up, the virtual worlds of computer gaming, animations, and interactive environments, both rely on and produce new forms of expression. This raises questions about the extent such spaces adopt or translate existing theory and practice, that is the transposition from one area to another and their return to the discipline.

Linking three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis to define groundwater chemistry baseline and identify inter-aquifer connectivity within the Clarence-Moreton Basin, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Clarence-Moreton Basin (CMB) covers approximately 26000 km2 and is the only sub-basin of the Great Artesian Basin (GAB) in which there is flow to both the south-west and the east, although flow to the south-west is predominant. In many parts of the basin, including catchments of the Bremer, Logan and upper Condamine Rivers in southeast Queensland, the Walloon Coal Measures are under exploration for Coal Seam Gas (CSG). In order to assess spatial variations in groundwater flow and hydrochemistry at a basin-wide scale, a 3D hydrogeological model of the Queensland section of the CMB has been developed using GoCAD modelling software. Prior to any large-scale CSG extraction, it is essential to understand the existing hydrochemical character of the different aquifers and to establish any potential linkage. To effectively use the large amount of water chemistry data existing for assessment of hydrochemical evolution within the different lithostratigraphic units, multivariate statistical techniques were employed.

Submission on Financial Planning Association Consultation Paper

This report was submitted to the Financial Planning Association and is confined to the proposals in relation to compliance with the Best Interests duty (Part B) and the provision of Scaled Advice (Part C) in the FPA Consultation Paper, Modifications to the FPA Code of Professional Practice to incorporate FoFA, released in October 2012.

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify prostate cancer susceptibility loci associated with aggressive and non-aggressive disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common genetic variants associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCa), but these explain less than one-third of the heritability. To identify further susceptibility alleles, we conducted a meta-analysis of four GWAS including 5953 cases of aggressive PrCa and 11 463 controls (men without PrCa). We computed association tests for approximately 2.6 million SNPs and followed up the most significant SNPs by genotyping 49 121 samples in 29 studies through the international PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. We not only confirmed the association of a PrCa susceptibility locus, rs11672691 on chromosome 19, but also showed an association with aggressive PrCa [odds ratio = 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21), P = 1.4 × 10(-8)]. This report describes a genetic variant which is associated with aggressive PrCa, which is a type of PrCa associated with a poorer prognosis.

Association between ambient ultraviolet radiation and risk of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVES: Ecological studies have suggested an inverse relationship between latitude and risks of some cancers. However, associations between solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and esophageal cancer risk have not been fully explored. We therefore investigated the association between nevi, freckles, and measures of ambient UVR over the life-course with risks of esophageal cancers. METHODS: We compared estimated lifetime residential ambient UVR among Australian patients with esophageal cancer (330 esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), 386 esophago-gastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC), and 279 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC)), and 1471 population controls. We asked people where they had lived at different periods of their life, and assigned ambient UVR to each location based on measurements from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer database. Freckling and nevus burden were self-reported. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the magnitude of associations between phenotype, ambient UVR, and esophageal cancer risk. RESULTS: Compared with population controls, patients with EAC and EGJAC were less likely to have high levels of estimated cumulative lifetime ambient UVR (EAC odds ratio (OR) 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.99, EGJAC OR 0.55, 0.34-0.90). We found no association between UVR and risk of ESCC (OR 0.91, 0.51-1.64). The associations were independent of age, sex, body mass index, education, state of recruitment, frequency of reflux, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and H. pylori serostatus. Cases with EAC were also significantly less likely to report high levels of nevi than controls. CONCLUSIONS: These data show an inverse association between ambient solar UVR at residential locations and risk of EAC and EGJAC, but not ESCC.

Words and Silences : The journal of the International Oral History Association

Words and Silences is the official on-line journal of the International Oral History Association. It is an internationally peer reviewed, high quality forum for oral historians from a wide range of disciplines and a means for the professional community to share projects and current trends of oral history from around the world. We are extremely pleased to release the first online issue of Word &Silences. This e-journal is the result of long standing discussion and debate about the best way to publish a quality bilingual oral history journal (including a blind peer reviewed section) as a viable solution to mounting difficulties associated with publishing in print. We have discovered that an online version is also not without its challenges and requires tremendous labor intensive dedication. We strongly encourage members to assist us with small review process tasks in the future, so that we can ensure the sustainability of an annual W&S publication for our members and beyond.

The association between objectively measured neighbourhood features and walking for transport in mid-aged adults

The aim of this paper is to examine the association between a range of objectively measured neighbourhood features and the likelihood of mid-aged adults walking for transport. Increased walking for transport would bring multiple benefits, including improved population and environmental health. As part of the baseline HABITAT study, 10,745 residents of Brisbane, Australia, aged 40–65 years, from 200 neighbourhoods were asked about the time they spent walking for transport. Walking data were collected by mail survey and the physical environmental features of neighbourhoods were compiled using a geographic information systems database. Walking for transport was categorised into four levels and the association between walking and each neighbourhood characteristic was examined using multilevel multinomial models. A number of threshold trends were evident; for example, off-road bikeways were consistently associated with walking between 60 and 150 min per week. Living within 500 m of public transit was also an important predictor but only for those who walked for less than 150 min per week. Interventions targeting these neighbourhood characteristics may lead to improved environmental quality, lower rates of overweight and obesity and associated chromic disease.

Genetic association of the KLK4 locus with risk of prostate cancer

The Kallikrein-related peptidase, KLK4, has been shown to be significantly overexpressed in prostate tumours in numerous studies and is suggested to be a potential biomarker for prostate cancer. KLK4 may also play a role in prostate cancer progression through its involvement in epithelial-mesenchymal transition, a more aggressive phenotype, and metastases to bone. It is well known that genetic variation has the potential to affect gene expression and/or various protein characteristics and hence we sought to investigate the possible role of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the KLK4 gene in prostate cancer. Assessment of 61 SNPs in the KLK4 locus (±10 kb) in approximately 1300 prostate cancer cases and 1300 male controls for associations with prostate cancer risk and/or prostate tumour aggressiveness (Gleason score <7 versus ≥7) revealed 7 SNPs to be associated with a decreased risk of prostate cancer at the Ptrend<0.05 significance level. Three of these SNPs, rs268923, rs56112930 and the HapMap tagSNP rs7248321, are located several kb upstream of KLK4; rs1654551 encodes a non-synonymous serine to alanine substitution at position 22 of the long isoform of the KLK4 protein, and the remaining 3 risk-associated SNPs, rs1701927, rs1090649 and rs806019, are located downstream of KLK4 and are in high linkage disequilibrium with each other (r2≥0.98). Our findings provide suggestive evidence of a role for genetic variation in the KLK4 locus in prostate cancer predisposition.

Multilevel determinants of breast cancer survival : association with geographic remoteness and area-level socioeconomic disadvantage

A major priority for cancer control agencies is to reduce geographical inequalities in cancer outcomes. While the poorer breast cancer survival among socioeconomically disadvantaged women is well established, few studies have looked at the independent contribution that area- and individual-level factors make to breast cancer survival. Here we examine relationships between geographic remoteness, area-level socioeconomic disadvantage and breast cancer survival after adjustment for patients’ socio- demographic characteristics and stage at diagnosis. Multilevel logistic regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation were used to analyze 18 568 breast cancer cases extracted from the Queensland Cancer Registry for women aged 30 to 70 years diagnosed between 1997 and 2006 from 478 Statistical Local Areas in Queensland, Australia. Independent of individual-level factors, area-level disadvantage was associated with breast-cancer survival (p=0.032). Compared to women in the least disadvantaged quintile (Quintile 5), women diagnosed while resident in one of the remaining four quintiles had significantly worse survival (OR 1.23, 1.27, 1.30, 1.37 for Quintiles 4, 3, 2 and 1 respectively).) Geographic remoteness was not related to lower survival after multivariable adjustment. There was no evidence that the impact of area-level disadvantage varied by geographic remoteness. At the individual level, Indigenous status, blue collar occupations and advanced disease were important predictors of poorer survival. A woman’s survival after a diagnosis of breast cancer depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the area where she lives, independently of her individual-level characteristics. It is crucial that the underlying reasons for these inequalities be identified to appropriately target policies, resources and effective intervention strategies.