Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection

Background The benign reputation of Plasmodium vivax is at odds with the burden and severity of the disease. This reputation, combined with restricted in vitro techniques, has slowed efforts to gain an understanding of the parasite biology and interaction with its human host. Methods A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. vivax infection is described, incorporating distinctive characteristics of the parasite such as the preferential invasion of reticulocytes and hypnozoite production. The developed model is fitted using digitized time-series’ from historic neurosyphilis studies, and subsequently validated against summary statistics from a larger study of the same population. The Chesson relapse pattern was used to demonstrate the impact of released hypnozoites. Results The typical pattern for dynamics of the parasite population is a rapid exponential increase in the first 10 days, followed by a gradual decline. Gametocyte counts follow a similar trend, but are approximately two orders of magnitude lower. The model predicts that, on average, an infected naïve host in the absence of treatment becomes infectious 7.9 days post patency and is infectious for a mean of 34.4 days. In the absence of treatment, the effect of hypnozoite release was not apparent as newly released parasites were obscured by the existing infection. Conclusions The results from the model provides useful insights into the dynamics of P. vivax infection in human hosts, in particular the timing of host infectiousness and the role of the hypnozoite in perpetuating infection.

N,N'-Carbonyldiimidazole-mediated functionalization of superparamagnetic nanoparticles as vaccine carrier

Particulates with specific sizes and characteristics can induce potent immune responses by promoting antigen uptake of appropriate immuno-stimulatory cell types. Magnetite (Fe3O4) nanoparticles have shown many potential bioapplications due to their biocompatibility and special characteristics. Here, superparamagnetic Fe3O4 nanoparticles (SPIONs) with high magnetization value (70emug-1) were stabilized with trisodium citrate and successfully conjugated with a model antigen (ovalbumin, OVA) via N,N'-carbonyldiimidazole (CDI) mediated reaction, to achieve a maximum conjugation capacity at approximately 13μgμm-2. It was shown that different mechanisms governed the interactions between the OVA molecules and magnetite nanoparticles at different pH conditions. We evaluated as-synthesized SPION against commercially available magnetite nanoparticles. The cytotoxicity of these nanoparticles was investigated using mammalian cells. The reported CDI-mediated reaction can be considered as a potential approach in conjugating biomolecules onto magnetite or other biodegradable nanoparticles for vaccine delivery.

Synthesis of biodegradable polymer-mesoporous silica composite microspheres for DNA prime-protein boost vaccination

DNA vaccines or proteins are capable of inducing specific immunity; however, the translation to the clinic has generally been problematic, primarily due to the reduced magnitude of immune response and poor pharmacokinetics. Herein we demonstrate a composite microsphere formulation, composed of mesoporous silica spheres (MPS) and poly(d,l-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA), enables the controlled delivery of a prime-boost vaccine via the encapsulation of plasmid DNA (pDNA) and protein in different compartments. Method with modified dual-concentric-feeding needles attached to a 40 kHz ultrasonic atomizer was studied. These needles focus the flow of two different solutions, which passed through the ultrasonic atomizer. The process synthesis parameters, which are important to the scale-up of composite microspheres, were also studied. These parameters include polymer concentration, feed flowrate, and volumetric ratio of polymer and pDNA-PEI/MPS-BSA. This fabrication technique produced composite microspheres with mean D[4,3] ranging from 6 to 34 μm, depending upon the microsphere preparation. The resultant physical morphology of composite microspheres was largely influenced by the volumetric ratio of pDNA-PEI/MPS-BSA to polymer, and this was due to the precipitation of MPS at the surface of the microspheres. The encapsulation efficiencies were predominantly in the range of 93-98% for pDNA and 46-68% for MPS. In the in vitro studies, the pDNA and protein showed different release kinetics in a 40 day time frame. The dual-concentric-feeding in ultrasonic atomization was shown to have excellent reproducibility. It was concluded that this fabrication technique is an effective method to prepare formulations containing a heterologous prime-boost vaccine in a single delivery system.

Using DNA as a drug - bioprocessing and delivery strategies

DNA may take a leading role in a future generation of blockbuster therapeutics. DNA has inherent advantages over other biomolecules such as protein, RNA and virus-like particles including safety, production simplicity and higher stability at ambient temperatures. Vaccination is the principal measure for preventing influenza and reducing the impact of pandemics; however, vaccines take up to 8-9 months to produce, and the global production capacity is woefully low. With production times as short as 2 weeks, improved safety and stability, bioprocess engineering developments, and the ability to perform numerous therapeutic roles, DNA has the potential to meet the demands of emerging and existing diseases. DNA is experiencing sharp growths in demand as indicated by its use in gene therapy trials and DNA vaccine related patents. Of particular interest for therapeutic use is plasmid DNA (pDNA), a form of non-genomic DNA that makes use of cellular machinery to express proteins or antigens. The production stages of fermentation and downstream purification are considered in this article. Forward looking approaches to purifying and delivering DNA are reported, including affinity chromatography and nasal inhalation. The place that pDNA may take in the preparation for and protection against pandemics is considered. If DNA therapeutics and vaccines prove to be effective, the ultimate scale of production will be huge which shall require associated bioprocess engineering research and development for purification of this large, unique biomolecule.

DNA molecules and human therapeutics

Nucleic acid molecules are championing a new generation of reverse engineered biopharmaceuticals. In terms of potential application in gene medicine, plasmid DNA (pDNA) vectors have exceptional therapeutic and immunological profiles as they are free from safety concerns associated with viral vectors, display non-toxicity and are simpler to develop. This review addresses the potential applications of pDNA molecules in vaccine design/development and gene therapy via recombinant DNA technology as well as a staged delivery mechanism for the introduction of plasmid-borne gene to target cells via the nasal route.

Process considerations related to the microencapsulation of plasmid DNA via ultrasonic atomization

An effective means of facilitating DNA vaccine delivery to antigen presenting cells is through biodegradable microspheres. Microspheres offer distinct advantages over other delivery technologies by providing release of DNA vaccine in its bioactive form in a controlled fashion. In this study, biodegradable poly(D,L-lactide-coglycolide) (PLGA) microspheres containing polyethylenimine (PEI) condensed plasmid DNA (pDNA) were prepared using a 40 kHz ultrasonic atomization system. Process synthesis parameters, which are important to the scale-up of microspheres that are suitable for nasal delivery (i.e., less than 20 μm), were studied. These parameters include polymer concentration; feed flowrate; volumetric ratio of polymer and pDNA-PEI (plasmid DNA-polyethylenimine) complexes; and nitrogen to phosphorous (N/P) ratio. PDNA encapsulation efficiencies were predominantly in the range 82-96%, and the mean sizes of the particle were between 6 and 15 μm. The ultrasonic synthesis method was shown to have excellent reproducibility. PEI affected morphology of the microspheres, as it induced the formation of porous particles that accelerate the release rate of pDNA. The PLGA microspheres displayed an in vitro release of pDNA of 95-99% within 30 days and demonstrated zero order release kinetics without an initial spike of pDNA. Agarose electrophoresis confirmed conservation of the supercoiled form of pDNA throughout the synthesis and in vitro release stages. It was concluded that ultrasonic atomization is an efficient technique to overcome the key obstacles in scaling-up the manufacture of encapsulated vaccine for clinical trials and ultimately, commercial applications.

Development of a pilot-scale bacterial fermentation for plasmid-based biopharmaceutical production using a stoichiometric medium

The recognition of the potential efficacy of plasmid DNA (pDNA) molecules as vectors in the treatment and prevention of emerging diseases has birthed the confidence to combat global pandemics. This is due to the close-to-zero safety concern associated with pDNA vectors compared to viral vectors in cell transfection and targeting. Considerable attention has been paid to the potential of pDNA vectors but comparatively less thought has been given to the practical challenges in producing large quantities to meet current rising demands. A pilot-scale fermentation scheme was developed by employing a stoichiometrically-designed growth medium whose exceptional plasmid yield performance was attested in a shake flask environment for pUC19 and pEGFP-N1 transformed into E. coliDH5α and E. coliJM109, respectively. Batch fermentation of E. coliDH5α-pUC19 employing the stoichiometric medium displayed a maximum plasmid volumetric and specific yield of 62.6 mg/L and 17.1 mg/g (mg plasmid/g dry cell weight), respectively. Fed-batch fermentation of E. coliDH5α-pUC19 on a glycerol substrate demonstrated one of the highest ever reported pilot-scale plasmid specific yield of 48.98 mg/g and a volumetric yield of 0.53 g/L. The attainment of high plasmid specific yields constitutes a decrease in plasmid manufacturing cost and enhances the effectiveness of downstream processes by reducing the proportion of intracellular impurities. The effect of step-rise temperature induction was also considered to maximize ColE1-origin plasmid replication.

Inorganic-organic composite particle as a staged delivery platform for plasmid DNA-based biopharmaceuticals

Infectious diseases such as SARS, influenza and bird flu may spread exponentially throughout communities. In fact, most infectious diseases remain major health risks due to the lack of vaccine or the lack of facilities to deliver the vaccines. Conventional vaccinations are based on damaged pathogens, live attenuated viruses and viral vectors. If the damage was not complete, the vaccination itself may cause adverse effects. Therefore, researchers have been prompted to prepare viable replacements for the attenuated vaccines that would be more effective and safer to use. DNA vaccines are generally composed of a double stranded plasmid that includes a gene encoding the target antigen under the transcriptional directory and control of a promoter region which is active in cells. Plasmid DNA (pDNA) vaccines allow the foreign genes to be expressed transiently in cells, mimicking intracellular pathogenic infection and inducing both humoral and cellular immune responses. Currently, because of their highly evolved and specialized components, viral systems are the most effective means for DNA delivery, and they achieve high efficiencies (generally >90%), for both DNA delivery and expression. As yet, viral-mediated deliveries have several limitations, including toxicity, limited DNA carrying capacity, restricted target to specific cell types, production and packing problems, and high cost. Thus, nonviral systems, particularly a synthetic DNA delivery system, are highly desirable in both research and clinical applications.

Growth medium selection and its economic impact on plasmid DNA production

Current developments in gene medicine and vaccination studies are utilizing plasmid DNA (pDNA) as the vector. For this reason, there has been an increasing trend towards larger and larger doses of pDNA utilized in human trials: from 100-1000 μg in 2002 to 500-5000 μg in 2005. The increasing demand of pDNA has created the need to revolutionalize current production levels under optimum economy. In this work, different standard media (LB, TB and SOC) for culturing recombinant Escherichia coli DH5α harbouring pUC19 were compared to a medium optimised for pDNA production. Lab scale fermentations using the standard media showed that the highest pDNA volumetric and specific yields were for TB (11.4 μg/ml and 6.3 μg/mg dry cell mass respectively) and the lowest was for LB (2.8 μg/ml and 3.3 μg/mg dry cell mass respectively). A fourth medium, PDMR, designed by modifying a stoichiometrically-formulated medium with an optimised carbon source concentration and carbon to nitrogen ratio displayed pDNA volumetric and specific yields of 23.8 μg/ml and 11.2 μg/mg dry cell mass respectively. However, it is the economic advantages of the optimised medium that makes it so attractive. Keeping all variables constant except medium and using LB as a base scenario (100 medium cost [MC] units/mg pDNA), the optimised PDMR medium yielded pDNA at a cost of only 27 MC units/mg pDNA. These results show that greater amounts of pDNA can be obtained more economically with minimal extra effort simply by using a medium optimised for pDNA production.

Process engineering aspects of plasmid-based biopharmaceuticals production : tackling the threatening vaccine shortages to prevent global pandemics

Infectious diseases such as SARS, influenza and bird flu have the potential to cause global pandemics; a key intervention will be vaccination. Hence, it is imperative to have in place the capacity to create vaccines against new diseases in the shortest time possible. In 2004, The Institute of Medicine asserted that the world is tottering on the verge of a colossal influenza outbreak. The institute stated that, inadequate production system for influenza vaccines is a major obstruction in the preparation towards influenza outbreaks. Because of production issues, the vaccine industry is facing financial and technological bottlenecks: In October 2004, the FDA was caught off guard by the shortage of flu vaccine, caused by a contamination in a US-based plant (Chiron Corporation), one of the only two suppliers of US flu vaccine. Due to difficulties in production and long processing times, the bulk of the world's vaccine production comes from very small number of companies compared to the number of companies producing drugs. Conventional vaccines are made of attenuated or modified forms of viruses. Relatively high and continuous doses are administered when a non-viable vaccine is used and the overall protective immunity obtained is ephemeral. The safety concerns of viral vaccines have propelled interest in creating a viable replacement that would be more effective and safer to use.

Plasmid DNA purification and formulation for vaccine applications

Plasmid DMA offers the promise of a new generation of pharmaceuticals that will address the often overlooked issue of vaccine production by offering a simple and reproducible method for producing a vaccine. Through reverse engineering, production could be reduced from up to 9 months to as little as 1 month. Simplified development and faster turn-around times means that DMA offers a solution to the vaccine crisis and will help to contain future viral outbreaks by enabling the production of a vaccine against new viral strains in the shortest possible time. Work currently being completed in the area of plasmid DMA production, purification and encapsulation will be presented.

Endotoxin removal : a critical step in vaccine production

A major drawback to the immunological potency of conventional vaccines, resulting in reduced level of immune responses, tissue injury, shock and high cytotoxicity, thus making their applications contraindicated in immunodeficiency diseases, is the presence of high contaminant concentrations in vaccine titers. Vaccine contamination arises from the simultaneous occurrence of competitive pathways resulting in the formation of other bio-products during cellular metabolism aside the pathways necessary for the production of vaccine molecules. One of such vaccine contaminating molecules is endotoxins which are mainly lipopolysaccharides (LPS) complexes found in the membrane of bacterial cell wall. The structural dynamics of these molecules make their removal from vaccine titers problematic, thus making vaccine endotoxin removal a major research endeavour. This presentation will discuss a novel technique for reducing the endotoxin level of vaccines. The technique commences with the disentanglement of endotoxin-vaccine molecular bonding and then capturing the vaccine molecules on an affinity monolith to separate the vaccine molecules from the endotoxins.

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine preventable infectious diseases and immunisation service delivery system

Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.