Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Mt Isa Shopping Precinct Survey Report : Consumer Attitudes towards Proposed Extended Trading Hours at Mt Isa

Data was collected to measure shopper’s attitudes toward the proposed Sunday and limited public holiday trading in Mt Isa. Survey questionnaires were conducted between 15th August to 17th August at Kmart Plaza, Woolworths, Miles St. and Mt Isa Plaza. In total, 300 respondents participated in the survey. Overall, the findings suggest that most respondents, especially males, couples with children and fulltime workers, embrace the proposed Sunday and limited holiday trading in Mt Isa. While there are concerns over increasing competition for smaller retailers who already trade on Sundays, a majority of respondents indicated it would suit their lifestyle, be convenient, provide more jobs, increase trade for smaller retailers within the area, reduce queues and congestion, and offer a less expensive grocery shopping. The majority of those shoppers that indicated they currently did some shopping on a Sunday reported they would continue to support smaller retailers who currently trade on Sundays and some public holidays, if changes came about. Those opposed to changes to trading hours also indicated a belief that existing trading hours were sufficient. Most people indicated the proposed extension of trading hours would not harm the community or have a negative, detrimental effect on themselves or their family. The main findings presented in the report are as follows: - 96% of respondents surveyed reported to be local, permanent residents of Mt Isa. - Residents of Mt Isa visited shopping centres and stores on average 2.4 times per week. This mirrors the average Australian shopping behaviour at 2.5 times per week (Roy Morgan Supermarket Monitor) - It was determined that Saturday was the busiest day for shopping with a majority of respondents indicating they visited stores on that day of the week. - 71% of respondents support the proposal of extended trading hours at shopping centres in Mt Isa, 25% oppose and 4% are unsure. - 87% of the respondents agreed that residents of Mt Isa should be allowed the same choice as other regional towns and cities in supporting/opposing changes to trading hours. The remaining 13% expressed a disagreement. - A larger percentage of males supported the proposal for Sunday and limited holiday trading. Of all the males surveyed, 81% were in support, 17% were opposed and 2% unsure. By contrast, 64% of female respondents support the proposal, while 31% oppose it and 5% are unsure. - The highest percentage of support exists in fulltime workers with 85% of those respondents supporting the proposal. In contrast, the lowest percentage of support was found in the non-working respondents, where 62% opposed the application. - 78% of couples living with children at home expressed support for Sunday and limited public holiday trading, while 60% of couples without children also supported the application. - Of the respondents surveyed, virtually none (less than 1%) have travelled outside of Mt Isa on a Sunday to shop. This indicates that due to the remote and isolated location of this town, residents do not have the option to travel reasonable distances in order to access a range of retailers. - 70% of the respondents often find it necessary to do some grocery shopping in Mt Isa on a Sunday. - Convenience is cited as the major reason for support (79%) followed by lifestyle (75%). - The most cited reasons for supporting ‘it would be convenient’ (81%), ‘It may create more jobs’ (77%), ‘It may reduce congestion during busy shopping periods’ (74%, and ‘It would make it easier for working families with kids’ (74%). - The most cited reasons for opposing the proposed changes are that ‘It will disadvantage smaller businesses’ (44%), ‘It is unnecessary’ (29%). - 72% of shoppers who indicated they already undertook some shopping on Sunday, indicated would continue to shop and support smaller retailers. - 98% of respondents indicated they would not change their sporting or social commitment if changes to trading hours were implemented.

Career choice and the experience of project-based work

The nature and context of project-based work combines with sector characteristics to present both barriers and benefits that influence career choices and experiences. Using social cognitive career theory (SCCT) as a lens, this paper contributes to understanding of the relative involvement of women and men in project roles by exploring the ways they perceive the experience and opportunities of project based work. With such diverse outcomes for men and women on almost all measures it is obvious projects can be a nightmare of different treatment and different experiences for men and women. The question of how organisations can ensure equal opportunity of the benefits and the burdens of work in projects continues to grow.

Exploring location-dependency in process modeling

Purpose – Context-awareness has emerged as an important principle in the design of flexible business processes. The goal of the research is to develop an approach to extend context-aware business process modeling toward location-awareness. The purpose of this paper is to identify and conceptualize location-dependencies in process modeling. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a pattern-based approach to identify location-dependency in process models. The authors design specifications for these patterns. The authors present illustrative examples and evaluate the identified patterns through a literature review of published process cases. Findings – This paper introduces location-awareness as a new perspective to extend context-awareness in BPM research, by introducing relevant location concepts such as location-awareness and location-dependencies. The authors identify five basic location-dependent control-flow patterns that can be captured in process models. And the authors identify location-dependencies in several existing case studies of business processes. Research limitations/implications – The authors focus exclusively on the control-flow perspective of process models. Further work needs to extend the research to address location-dependencies in process data or resources. Further empirical work is needed to explore determinants and consequences of the modeling of location-dependencies. Originality/value – As existing literature mostly focusses on the broad context of business process, location in process modeling still is treated as “second class citizen” in theory and in practice. This paper discusses the vital role of location-dependencies within business processes. The proposed five basic location-dependent control-flow patterns are novel and useful to explain location-dependency in business process models. They provide a conceptual basis for further exploration of location-awareness in the management of business processes.

Choice impulsivity: Definitions, measurement issues, and clinical implications

Background Impulsivity critically relates to many psychiatric disorders. Given the multifaceted construct that impulsivity represents, defining core aspects of impulsivity is vital for the assessment and understanding of clinical conditions. Choice impulsivity (CI), involving the preferential selection of smaller sooner rewards over larger later rewards, represents one important type of impulsivity. Method The International Society for Research on Impulsivity (InSRI) convened to discuss the definition and assessment of CI and provide recommendations regarding measurement across species. Results Commonly used preclinical and clinical CI behavioral tasks are described, and considerations for each task are provided to guide CI task selection. Differences in assessment of CI (self-report, behavioral) and calculating CI indices (e.g., area-under-the-curve, indifference point, steepness of discounting curve) are discussed along with properties of specific behavioral tasks used in preclinical and clinical settings. Conclusions The InSRI group recommends inclusion of measures of CI in human studies examining impulsivity. Animal studies examining impulsivity should also include assessments of CI and these measures should be harmonized in accordance with human studies of the disorders being modeled in the preclinical investigations. The choice of specific CI measures to be included should be based on the goals of the study and existing preclinical and clinical literature using established CI measures.

Informatics to support patient choice between diverse medical systems

Culturally, philosophically and religiously diverse medical systems including Western medicine, Traditional Chinese Medicine, Ayurvedic Medicine and Homeopathic Medicine, once situated in places and times relatively unconnected from each other, currently co-exist to a point where patients must choose which system to consult. These decisions require comparative analyses, yet the divergence in key underpinning assumptions is so great that comparisons cannot easily be made. However, diverse medical systems can be meaningfully juxtaposed for the purpose of making practical decisions if relevant information is presented appropriately. Information regarding privacy provisions inherent in the typical practice of each medical system is an important element in this juxtaposition. In this paper the information needs of patients making decisions regarding the selection of a medical system are examined.

A Memetic Algorithm for the location-based continuously operating reference stations placement problem in Network Real-Time Kinematic

Network Real-Time Kinematic (NRTK) is a technology that can provide centimeter-level accuracy positioning services in real time, and it is enabled by a network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS). The location-oriented CORS placement problem is an important problem in the design of a NRTK as it will directly affect not only the installation and operational cost of the NRTK, but also the quality of positioning services provided by the NRTK. This paper presents a Memetic Algorithm (MA) for the location-oriented CORS placement problem, which hybridizes the powerful explorative search capacity of a genetic algorithm and the efficient and effective exploitative search capacity of a local optimization. Experimental results have shown that the MA has better performance than existing approaches. In this paper we also conduct an empirical study about the scalability of the MA, effectiveness of the hybridization technique and selection of crossover operator in the MA.

Financial literacy and superannuation investment decision-making in a choice environment : an exploratory study

This thesis examines superannuation fund members' level of financial literacy and its association with investment choice decisions in the setting of the mandatory superannuation system in Australia. It also investigates a range of contextual and socio-demographic factors in explaining financial literacy and investment choice. The empirical analysis shows that while most survey respondents displayed high levels of self-rated and general financial literacy, fewer scored as well in relation to more advanced literacy regarding superannuation investment options. The findings of this study have important implications for policy-makers and the superannuation industry in educating and engaging with fund members.

Examining the neural correlates of choice behavior in a gambling task using steady state topography

The present study investigated the behavioral and neuropsychological characteristics of decision-making behavior during a gambling task as well as how these characteristics may relate to the Somatic Marker Hypothesis and the Frequency of Gain model. The applicability to intertemporal choice was also discussed. Patterns of card selection during a computerized interpretation of the Iowa Gambling Task were assessed for 10 men and 10 women. Steady State Topography was employed to assess cortical processing throughout this task. Results supported the hypothesis that patterns of card selection were in line with both theories. As hypothesized, these 2 patterns of card selection were also associated with distinct patterns of cortical activity, suggesting that intertemporal choice may involve the recruitment of right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex for somatic labeling, left fusiform gyrus for object representations, and the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex for an analysis of the associated frequency of gain or loss. It is suggested that processes contributing to intertemporal choice may include inhibition of negatively valenced options, guiding decisions away from those options, as well as computations favoring frequently rewarded options.

For sale - sex in the country: The benefits of sex work as an occupational choice in rural NSW Australia

Drawing upon sociology of work, feminist theory and past sex worker research, we present the first study to explore the sex work industry in rural Australia. Using qualitative data from interviews conducted December 2004 - February 2005 with 20 sex industry workers in New South Wales, we question existing assumptions and generalizations surrounding contemporary sex work to explore how industry workers perceive their career experiences. Specifically, we explore workers’ motivations for entering and continuing to be involved in the industry, the profession benefits and historical changes. In contrast to radical feminist theory’s equation of sex work with victimization, these narratives by rural sex workers portray experiences of sexual empowerment, economic advancement, job flexibility, achievement and examples of positive social interaction. In conclusion, our findings provide contrasting data to the sex politics surrounding “prostitution” put forth by radical feminists as we reaffirm the sex industry to be a legitimate career option in rural Australia and challenge the determinism used to labelled sex work as definitively degrading and deleterious to women.

The influence of social media on international students' choice of university and course

This thesis is a qualitative study of the influence of social media on the university and course decision making process of international students. It examines the role of social media in influencing international students' decisions on course and university selection and the role of social media in meeting their information needs. It also gathered inputs on how universities could engage, collaborate and communicate using social media communities and channels for more effective recruitment strategies.

Influences of luminance and accommodation stimuli on pupil size and pupil center location

PURPOSE. To investigate effects of luminance and accommodation stimuli on pupil size and pupil center location and their implications for progressive addition lens wear. METHODS. Participants were young and older adult groups (n=20, 22±2 years, age range 18-25 years; n=19, 49±4 years, 45-58 years). A wave aberrometer included a relay system to allow a 12.5°x11° background for the internal fixation target. Participants viewed the target under a matrix of conditions with luminance levels 0.01, 3.7, 120 and 6100 cd/m² and with accommodation stimuli up to 6 diopters in 2 diopter steps. Pupil sizes and their centers, relative to limbus centers, were determined from anterior eye images. RESULTS. With luminance increase, reduction in pupil size was accentuated by increase in accommodation stimulus in the young, but not in the older, group. As luminance increased, pupil center location altered. This was nasally in both groups with an average shift of approximately 0.12mm. Relative to the lowest stimulus condition, the mean of the maximum absolute pupil center shifts was 0.26±0.08mm for both groups with individual shifts up to 0.5mm, findings consistent with previous studies. There was no significant effect of accommodation on pupil center locations for either age group, or evidence that location was influenced by the combination of luminance and accommodation stimulus that resulted in any particular pupil size. CONCLUSIONS. Variations in luminance and accommodation influence pupil size, but only the former affects pupil center location significantly. Pupil center shifts are too small to be of concern in fitting progressive addition lenses.

Audit pricing and product differentiation in small private firms : evidence from Thailand

Purpose – There is limited evidence on how differences in economic environments affect the demand for and supply of auditing. Research on audit pricing has mainly focused on large client markets in developed economies; in contrast, the purpose of this paper is to focus on the small client segment in the emerging economy of Thailand which offers a choice between auditors of two different qualities. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on a random stratified sample of small clients in Thailand qualifying for audit exemption. The final sample consists of 1,950 firm-year observations for 2002-2006. Findings – The authors find evidence of product differentiation in the small client market, suggesting that small firms view certified public accountants as superior and pay a premium for their services. The authors also find that audit fees have a positive significant association with leverage, metropolitan location and client size. Audit risk and audit opinion are not, however, significantly associated with audit fees. Furthermore, the authors find no evidence that clients whose financial year ends in the auditors’ busy period pay significantly higher audit fees, and auditors engage in low-balling on initial engagements to attract audit clients. Research limitations/implications – The research shows the importance of exploring actual decisions regarding audit practice and audit pricing in different institutional and organizational settings. Originality/value – The paper extends the literature from developed economies and large/listed market setting to the emerging economy and small client market setting. As far as the authors are aware, this is the first paper to examine audit pricing in the small client market in an emerging economy.