Preparation of future weather data to study the impact of climate change on buildings

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of climate change on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since most of building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. In this paper, the methods used to prepare future weather data for the study of the impact of climate change are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The inherent relationship between these methods is also illustrated. Based on these discussions and the analysis of Australian historic climatic data, an effective framework and procedure to generate future hourly weather data is presented. It is shown that this method is not only able to deal with different levels of available information regarding the climate change, but also can retain the key characters of a “typical” year weather data for a desired period.

Farm it right : the sustainable farming simulation

Farm It Right is an innovative creative work that simulates sustainable farming techniques using ecological models prepared by academics at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences). This interactive work simulates the farming conditions and options of our ancestors and demonstrates the direct impact their actions had on their environment and on the ’future of their cultures’ (Schmidt 2008). Specifically, the simulation allows users to explore and experiment with the complex relationships between environmental factors and human decision making within the harsh conditions of an early (9th century) Nordic farm. The simulation interface displays both statistical and graphical feedback in response to the users selections regarding animal reproduction rates, shelter provisions, food supplies etc. as well as demonstrating resulting impacts to soil erosion, water supply, animal population sizes etc.---------- 'Farm It Right' is now used at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences) as a dynamic e-Learning resource for incorporating environmental archaeology with sustainable development education, improving the engagement with complex data and the appreciation of human impacts on the environment and the future of their cultures. 'Farm It Right' is also demonstrated as an exemplar case study for interaction design students at Queensland University of Technology.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Engaging students in large classes using Elluminate

The advancement of online teaching environments during the past several years presents an exciting opportunity to extend existing teaching methodologies. The software package known as Elluminate is one example of a virtual classroom, facilitating the provision of real time interaction, collaboration and group meetings. This paper will examine the use of Elluminate in the teaching of large classes. The use of such technology for large classes is of particular interest, as large classes are often, unfairly, associated with a reputation for being impersonal as well as notions of conveyor belt learning. In this paper the potential to extend teaching and learning opportunities using Elluminate, in the context of large classes, will be explored. It will be shown that the use of technology such as Elluminate can assist in providing students with a more flexible means of accessing academic support, as well as allowing for a customised delivery of course content so as to focus learning outcomes.

An evaluation of current and future botnet defenses

Botnets are large networks of compromised machines under the control of a bot master. These botnets constantly evolve their defences to allow the continuation of their malicious activities. The constant development of new botnet mitigation strategies and their subsequent defensive countermeasures has lead to a technological arms race, one which the bot masters have significant incentives to win. This dissertation analyzes the current and future states of the botnet arms race by introducing a taxonomy of botnet defences and a simulation framework for evaluating botnet techniques. The taxonomy covers current botnet techniques and highlights possible future techniques for further analysis under the simulation framework. This framework allows the evaluation of the effect techniques such as reputation systems and proof of work schemes have on the resources required to disable a peer-to-peer botnet. Given the increase in the resources required, our results suggest that the prospects of eliminating the botnet threat are limited.

Combining Cartesian and polar coordinates in IBVS

Image-based visual servo (IBVS) is a simple, efficient and robust technique for vision-based control. Although technically a local method in practice it demonstrates almost global convergence. However IBVS performs very poorly for cases that involve large rotations about the optical axis. It is well known that re-parameterizing the problem by using polar, instead of Cartesian coordinates, of feature points overcomes this limitation. First, simulation and experimental results are presented to show the complementarity of these two parameter-izations. We then describe a new hybrid visual servo strategy based on combining polar and Cartesian image Jacobians. © 2009 IEEE.

Experience mapping : producing spatially continuous environment representations using RatSLAM

RatSLAM is a system for vision-based Simultaneous Localisation and Mapping (SLAM) inspired by models of the rodent hippocampus. The system can produce stable representations of large complex environments during robot experiments in both indoor and outdoor environments. These representations are both topological and metric in nature, and can involve multiple representations of the same place as well as discontinuities. In this paper we describe a new technique known as experience mapping that can be used online with the RatSLAM system to produce world representations known as experience maps. These maps group together multiple place representations and are spatially continuous. A number of experiments have been conducted in simulation and a real world office environment. These experiments demonstrate the high degree to which experience maps are representative of the spatial arrangement of the environment.

Suitability of procuring large public works by PPP in Hong Kong

Purpose : The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (referred to as Hong Kong from here onwards) is an international leading commercial hub particularly in Asia. In order to keep up its reputation a number of large public works projects have been considered. Public Private Partnership (PPP) has increasingly been suggested for these projects, but the suitability of using this procurement method in Hong Kong is yet to be studied empirically. The findings presented in this paper will specifically consider whether PPPs should be used to procure public works projects in Hong Kong by studying the attractive and negative factors for adopting PPP. Design/methodology/approach : As part of this study a questionnaire survey was conducted with industrial practitioners. The respondents were requested to rank the importance of fifteen attractive factors and thirteen negative factors for adopting PPP. Findings : The results found that in general the top attractive factors ranked by respondents from Hong Kong were efficiency related, these included (1) ‘Provide an integrated solution (for public infrastructure / services)’; (2) ‘Facilitate creative and innovative approaches’; and (3) ‘Solve the problem of public sector budget restraint’. It was found that Australian respondents also shared similar findings to those in Hong Kong, but the United Kingdom respondents showed a higher priority to those economic driven attractive factors. Also, the ranking of the attractive and negative factors for adopting PPP showed that on average the attractive factors were scored higher than the negative factors. Originality/value : The results of this research have enabled a comparison of the attractive and negative factors for adopting PPP between three administrative systems. These findings have confirmed that PPP is a suitable means to procure large public projects which are believed to be useful and interesting to PPP researchers and practitioners.

Single-layer decoupling networks for large circulant symmetric arrays

In this paper, the authors propose a new structure for the decoupling of circulant symmetric arrays of more than four elements. In this case, network element values are again obtained through a process of repeated eigenmode decoupling, here by solving sets of nonlinear equations. However, the resulting circuit is much simpler and can be implemented on a single layer. The corresponding circuit topology for the 6-element array is displayed in figure diagrams. The procedure will be illustrated by considering different examples.

Modelling and control of a large quadrotor robot

Typical quadrotor aerial robots used in research weigh inlMMLBox and carry payloads measured in hundreds of grams. Several obstacles in design and control must be overcome to cater for expected industry demands that push the boundaries of existing quadrotor performance. The X-4 Flyer, a 4 kg quadrotor with a 1 kg payload, is intended to be prototypical of useful commercial quadrotors. The custom-built craft uses tuned plant dynamics with an onboard embedded attitude controller to stabilise flight. Independent linear SISO controllers were designed to regulate flyer attitude. The performance of the system is demonstrated in indoor and outdoor flight.

Spherical image-based visual servo and structure estimation

This paper presents a formulation of image-based visual servoing (IBVS) for a spherical camera where coordinates are parameterized in terms of colatitude and longitude: IBVSSph. The image Jacobian is derived and simulation results are presented for canonical rotational, translational as well as general motion. Problems with large rotations that affect the planar perspective form of IBVS are not present on the sphere, whereas the desirable robustness properties of IBVS are shown to be retained. We also describe a structure from motion (SfM) system based on camera-centric spherical coordinates and show how a recursive estimator can be used to recover structure. The spherical formulations for IBVS and SfM are particularly suitable for platforms, such as aerial and underwater robots, that move in SE(3).

Off-world robotic excavation for Large-scale habitat construction and resource extraction

This paper describes technologies we have developed to perform autonomous large-scale off-world excavation. A scale dragline excavator of size similar to that required for lunar excavation was made capable of autonomous control. Systems have been put in place to allow remote operation of the machine from anywhere in the world. Algorithms have been developed for complete autonomous digging and dumping of material taking into account machine and terrain constraints and regolith variability. Experimental results are presented showing the ability to autonomously excavate and move large amounts of regolith and accurately place it at a specified location.

A simple and systematic approach to assigning Denavit-Hartenberg Parameters

This paper presents a simple and intuitive approach to determining the kinematic parameters of a serial-link robot in Denavit– Hartenberg (DH) notation. Once a manipulator’s kinematics is parameterized in this form, a large body of standard algorithms and code implementations for kinematics, dynamics, motion planning, and simulation are available. The proposed method has two parts. The first is the “walk through,” a simple procedure that creates a string of elementary translations and rotations, from the user-defined base coordinate to the end-effector. The second step is an algebraic procedure to manipulate this string into a form that can be factorized as link transforms, which can be represented in standard or modified DH notation. The method allows for an arbitrary base and end-effector coordinate system as well as an arbitrary zero joint angle pose. The algebraic procedure is amenable to computer algebra manipulation and a Java program is available as supplementary downloadable material.

A cable-array robot for air vehicle simulation

The development of autonomous air vehicles can be an expensive research pursuit. To alleviate some of the financial burden of this process, we have constructed a system consisting of four winches each attached to a central pod (the simulated air vehicle) via cables - a cable-array robot. The system is capable of precisely controlling the three dimensional position of the pod allowing effective testing of sensing and control strategies before experimentation on a free-flying vehicle. In this paper, we present a brief overview of the system and provide a practical control strategy for such a system.