The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Malnutrition and its impact on cost of hospitalization, length of stay, readmission and 3-year mortality

Background & aims The confounding effect of disease on the outcomes of malnutrition using diagnosis-related groups (DRG) has never been studied in a multidisciplinary setting. This study aims to determine the impact of malnutrition on hospitalisation outcomes, controlling for DRG. Methods Subjective Global Assessment was used to assess the nutritional status of 818 patients within 48 hours of admission. Prospective data were collected on cost of hospitalisation, length of stay (LOS), readmission and mortality up to 3 years post-discharged using National Death Register data. Mixed model analysis and conditional logistic regression matching by DRG were carried out to evaluate the association between nutritional status and outcomes, with the results adjusted for gender, age and race. Results Malnourished patients (29%) had longer hospital stays (6.9±7.3 days vs. 4.6±5.6 days, p<0.001) and were more likely to be readmitted within 15 days (adjusted relative risk = 1.9, 95%CI 1.1–3.2, p=0.025). Within a DRG, the mean difference between actual cost of hospitalisation and the average cost for malnourished patients was greater than well-nourished patients (p=0.014). Mortality was higher in malnourished patients at 1 year (34% vs. 4.1 %), 2 years (42.6% vs. 6.7%) and 3 years (48.5% vs. 9.9%); p<0.001 for all. Overall, malnutrition was a significant predictor of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 4.4, 95%CI 3.3-6.0, p<0.001). Conclusions Malnutrition was evident in up to one third of inpatients and led to poor hospitalisation outcomes, even after matching for DRG. Strategies to prevent and treat malnutrition in the hospital and post-discharge are needed.

Public policy, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Public policymakers are caught in a dilemma : there is a growing list of urgent issues to address, at the same time that public expenditure is being cut. Adding to this dilemma is a system of government designed in the 19th century and competing theories of policymaking dating back to the 1950s. The interlinked problems of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are cases in point. As the climate changes, there will be more frequent, intense and/or prolonged disasters such as floods and bushfires. Clearly a well integrated whole of government response is needed, but how might this be achieved? Further, how could academic research contribute to resolving this dilemma in a way that would produce something of theoretical interest as well as practical outcomes for policymakers? These are the questions addressed by our research via a comparative analysis of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. Our findings suggest that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings have implications for all areas of public policy theory and practice.

Rethinking emergency management and climate adaptation policies

Emergency management and climate change adaptation will increasingly challenge all levels of government because of three main factors. First, Australia is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly through the increasing frequency and/or intensity of disasters such as floods and bushfires. Second, the system of government that divides powers by function and level can often act as a barrier to a well-integrated response. Third, policymaking processes struggle to cope with such complex inter-jurisdictional issues. This paper discusses these factors and explores the nature of the challenge for Australian governments. Investigations into the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods offer an indication of the challenges ahead and it is argued that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings offer an opportunity for improving responses as well as a starting point for integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies. The paper is based on the preliminary findings of an NCCARF funded research project: The Right Tool for the Job – Achieving climate change adaptation outcomes through improved disaster management policies, planning and risk management strategies involving Griffith University and RMIT.

Effect of text type on near work-induced contrast adaptation in myopic and emmetropic young adults

Purpose Contrast adaptation has been speculated to be an error signal for emmetropization. Myopic children exhibit higher contrast adaptation than emmetropic children. This study aimed to determine whether contrast adaptation varies with the type of text viewed by emmetropic and myopic young adults. Methods Baseline contrast sensitivity was determined in 25 emmetropic and 25 spectacle-corrected myopic young adults for 0.5, 1.2, 2.7, 4.4, and 6.2 cycles per degree (cpd) horizontal sine wave gratings. The adults spent periods looking at a 6.2 cpd high-contrast horizontal grating and reading lines of English and Chinese text (these texts comprised 1.2 cpd row and 6 cpd stroke frequencies). The effects of these near tasks on contrast sensitivity were determined, with decreases in sensitivity indicating contrast adaptation. Results Contrast adaptation was affected by the near task (F2,672 = 43.0; P < 0.001). Adaptation was greater for the grating task (0.13 ± 0.17 log unit, averaged across all frequencies) than reading tasks, but there was no significant difference between the two reading tasks (English 0.05 ± 0.13 log unit versus Chinese 0.04 ± 0.13 log unit). The myopic group showed significantly greater adaptation (by 0.04, 0.04, and 0.05 log units for English, Chinese, and grating tasks, respectively) than the emmetropic group (F1,48 = 5.0; P = 0.03). Conclusions In young adults, reading Chinese text induced similar contrast adaptation as reading English text. Myopes exhibited greater contrast adaptation than emmetropes. Contrast adaptation, independent of text type, might be associated with myopia development.

Queensland’s high risk foot database : tracking the length and width of Queensland’s foot ulcers

Background Foot ulcers are a leading cause of avoidable hospital admissions and lower extremity amputations. However, large clinical studies describing foot ulcer presentations in the ambulatory setting are limited. The aim of this descriptive observational paper is to report the characteristics of ambulatory foot ulcer patients managed across 13 of 17 Queensland Health & Hospital Services. Methods Data on all foot ulcer patients registered with a Queensland High Risk Foot Form (QHRFF) was collected at their first consult in 2012. Data is automatically extracted from each QHRFF into a Queensland high risk foot database. Descriptive statistics display age, sex, ulcer types and co-morbidities. Statewide clinical indicators of foot ulcer management are also reported. Results Overall, 2,034 people presented with a foot ulcer in 2012. Mean age was 63(±14) years and 67.8% were male. Co-morbidities included 85% had diabetes, 49.7% hypertension, 39.2% dyslipidaemia, 25.6% cardiovascular disease, 13.7% kidney disease and 12.2% smoking. Foot ulcer types included 51.6% neuropathic, 17.8% neuro-ischaemic, 7.2% ischaemic, 6.6% post-surgical and 16.8% other; whilst 31% were infected. Clinical indicator results revealed 98% had their wound categorised, 51% received non-removable offloading, median ulcer healing time was 6-weeks and 37% had ulcer recurrence. Conclusion This paper details the largest foot ulcer database reported in Australia. People presenting with foot ulcers appear predominantly older, male with several co-morbidities. Encouragingly it appears most patients are receiving best practice care. These results may be a factor in the significant reduction of Queensland diabetes foot-related hospitalisations and amputations recently reported.

Influence of eye rotation on peripheral eye length measurement obtained with a partial coherence interferometry instrument

Purpose The eye rotation approach for measuring peripheral eye length leads to concern about whether the rotation influences results, such as through pressure exerted by eyelids or extra-ocular muscles. This study investigated whether this approach is valid. Methods Peripheral eye lengths were measured with a Lenstar LS 900 biometer for eye rotation and no-eye rotation conditions (head rotation for horizontal meridian and instrument rotation for vertical meridian). Measurements were made for 23 healthy young adults along the horizontal visual field (±30°) and, for a subset of eight participants along the vertical visual field (±25°). To investigate the influence of the duration of eye rotation, for six participants measurements were made at 0, 60, 120, 180 and 210 s after eye rotation to ±30° along horizontal and vertical visual fields. Results Peripheral eye lengths were not significantly different for the conditions along the vertical meridian (F1,7 = 0.16, p = 0.71). The peripheral eye lengths for the conditions were significantly different along the horizontal meridian (F1,22 = 4.85, p = 0.04), although not at individual positions (p ≥ 0.10) and were not important. There were no apparent differences between the emmetropic and myopic groups. There was no significant change in eye length at any position after maintaining position for 210 s. Conclusion Eye rotation and no-eye rotation conditions were similar for measuring peripheral eye lengths along horizontal and vertical visual field meridians at ±30° and ±25°, respectively. Either condition can be used to estimate retinal shape from peripheral eye lengths.

Putative full-length clones of the genomic DNA segments of subterranean clover stunt virus and identification of the segment coding for the viral coat protein

Subterranean clover stunt disease is an economically important aphid-borne virus disease affecting certain pasture and grain legumes in Australia. The virus associated with the disease, subterranean clover stunt virus (SCSV), was previously found to be representative of a new type of single-stranded DNA virus. Analysis of the virion DNA and restriction mapping of double-stranded cDNA synthesized from virion DNA suggested that SCSV has a segmented genome composed of 3 or 4 different species of circular ssDNA each of about 850-880 nucleotides. To further investigate the complexity of the SCSV genome, we have isolated the replicative form DNA from infected pea and from it prepared putative full-length clones representing the SCSV genome segments. Analysis of these clones by restriction mapping indicated that clones representing at least 4 distinct genomic segments were obtained. This method is thus suitable for generating an extensive genomic library of novel ssDNA viruses containing multiple genome segments such as SCSV and banana bunchy top virus. The N-terminal amino acid sequence and amino acid composition of the coat protein of SCSV were determined. Comparison of the amino acid sequence with partial DNA sequence data, and the distinctly different restriction maps obtained for the full-length clones suggested that only one of these clones contained the coat protein gene. The results confirmed that SCSV has a functionally divided genome composed of several distinct ssDNA circles each of about 1 kb.

Cyclic mechanical strain guides capillary-like morphology in vitro

Introduction Stretching of tissue stimulates angiogenesis but increased motion at a fracture site hinders revascularisation. In vitro studies have indicated that mechanical stimuli promote angiogenic responses in endothelial cells, but can either inhibit or enhance responses when applied directly to angiogenesis assays. We anticipated that cyclic tension applied during endothelial network assembly would increase vascular structure formation up to a certain threshold. Methods Fibroblast/HUVEC co-cultures were subjected to cyclic equibiaxial strain (1 Hz; 6 h/day; 7 days) using the FlexerCell FX-4000T system and limiting rings for simultaneous application of multiple strain magnitudes (0–13%). Cells were labelled using anti-PECAM-1, and image analysis provided measures of endothelial network length and numbers of junctions. Results Cyclic stretching had no significant effect on the total length of endothelial networks (P > 0.2) but resulted in a strain-dependent decrease in branching and localised alignments of endothelial structures, which were in turn aligned with the supporting fibroblastic construct. Conclusion The organisation of endothelial networks under cyclic strain is dominated by structural adaptation to the supporting construct. It may be that, in fracture healing, the formation and integrity of the granulation tissue and callus is ultimately critical in revascularisation and its failure under severe strain conditions.

Standardising corneal nerve fibre length for nerve tortuosity increases its association with measures of diabetic neuropathy

AIMS: Recent studies on corneal markers have advocated corneal nerve fibre length as the most important measure of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. The aim of this study was to determine if standardizing corneal nerve fibre length for tortuosity increases its association with other measures of diabetic peripheral neuropathy. METHODS: Two hundred and thirty-one individuals with diabetes with either predominantly mild or absent neuropathic changes and 61 control subjects underwent evaluation of diabetic neuropathy symptom score, neuropathy disability score, testing with 10-g monofilament, quantitative sensory testing (warm, cold, vibration detection) and nerve conduction studies. Corneal nerve fibre length and corneal nerve fibre tortuosity were measured using corneal confocal microscopy. A tortuosity-standardised corneal nerve fibre length variable was generated by dividing corneal nerve fibre length by corneal nerve fibre tortuosity. Differences in corneal nerve morphology between individuals with and without diabetic peripheral neuropathy and control subjects were determined and associations were estimated between corneal morphology and established tests of, and risk factors for, diabetic peripheral neuropathy. RESULTS: The tortuosity-standardised corneal nerve fibre length variable was better than corneal nerve fibre length in demonstrating differences between individuals with diabetes, with and without neuropathy (tortuosity-standardised corneal nerve fibre length variable: 70.5 ± 27.3 vs. 84.9 ± 28.7, P < 0.001, receiver operating characteristic area under the curve = 0.67; corneal nerve fibre length: 15.9 ± 6.9 vs. 18.4 ± 6.2 mm/mm(2) , P = 0.004, receiver operating characteristic area under the curve = 0.64). Furthermore, the tortuosity-standardised corneal nerve fibre length variable demonstrated a significant difference between the control subjects and individuals with diabetes, without neuropathy, while corneal nerve fibre length did not (tortuosity-standardised corneal nerve fibre length variable: 94.3 ± 27.1 vs. 84.9 ± 28.7, P = 0.028; corneal nerve fibre length: 20.1 ± 6.3 vs. 18.4 ± 6.2 mm/mm(2) , P = 0.084). Correlations between corneal nerve fibre length and established measures of neuropathy and risk factors for neuropathy were higher when a correction was made for the nerve tortuosity. CONCLUSIONS: Standardizing corneal nerve fibre length for tortuosity enhances the ability to differentiate individuals with diabetes, with and without neuropathy.

Neoliberalism and Spatial Adaptation

Human spatial environments must adapt to climate change. Spatial planning is central to climate change adaptation and potentially well suited to the task, however neoliberal influences and trends threaten this capacity. This paper explores the significance of neoliberal influences on urban planning to climate change adaptation. The potential form of spatial adaptation within the context of a planning environment influenced by neoliberal principles is evaluated. This influence relates to spatial scale, temporal scale, responsibility for action, strategies and mechanisms, accrual of benefits, negotiation of priorities and approach to uncertainty. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the influence of neoliberalism on spatial adaptation. It identifies the potential characteristics, challenges and opportunities of spatial adaptation under a neoliberal frame. The neoliberal frame does not entirely preclude spatial adaptation but significantly influence its form. Neoliberal approaches involve individual action in response to private incentives and near term impacts while collective action, regulatory mechanisms and long term planning is approached cautiously. Challenges concern the degree to which collective action and a long term orientation are necessary, how individual adaptation relates to collective vulnerability and the prioritisation of adaptation by markets. Opportunities might involve the operability of individual and local adaptation, the existence of private incentives to adapt and the potential to align adaptation with entrepreneurial projects.

Doing adaptation differently? Does neoliberalism influence adaptation planning in Queensland?

Australian cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Adapting to climate change is a critical task for contemporary spatial planning, one that is widely recognised by the planning profession and beginning to receive substantive attention in planning policy. However adaptation takes place within the context of established spatial governance regimes and planning cultures, and examples of effective adaptation are often grounded in progressive contexts markedly different than Australia. In Australia, planning is subject to strong neoliberal reform agendas (Gleeson & Low, 2000a, 2000b) and national adaptation policies align with neoliberal views (Granberg & Glover, 2011). Planning in Queensland has been subject to deregulation (Buxton et al., 2012) and the continued influence of neoliberalism (Wright & Cleary, 2012). The influence of neoliberalism on climate change adaptation has received little consideration in research and literature. This paper reviews a case study of adaptation planning through the lens of the recent and contemporary influences of neoliberalism. It examines spatial/land-use planning for climate change adaptation in Queensland, identifying the underlying rationales, priorities and strategies. A justification for such an investigation is advanced based on the challenges to planning facilitating adaptation and identified links to neoliberalism. A preliminary analysis of interviews with planners is then used to identify and discuss the ideological influences practitioners perceive in current approaches to adaptation in Queensland and the implications of such.

Arm’s length pricing and multinational banks : an old fashioned approach in a modern world

In “Arm’s Length Pricing and Multinational Banks: An Old Fashioned Approach in a Modern World”, Kerrie Sadiq, describes the high level of integration of multinational financial institutions and argues that treating each element within a given operation as a separate entity for transfer pricing purposes is not economically or legally realistic. She proposes instead formulary apportionment as a device for managing this complexity.

Adaptation and change in Queensland’s rangelands : cell grazing as an emerging ideology of pastoral-ecology

Does the current global political economic framework, or more specifically, the cost-price squeeze associated with primary production, restrict the choices of Australian cattle graziers in moving to more sustainable practices? It has often been argued by primary producers and academics, alike, that current terms of trade have resulted in reduced profitability at the property level, and as such, have made it difficult for landholders to shift to practices which are environmentally sustainable. Whilst there is mounting evidence that this is case, there is also evidence that some graziers have been able to adapt to the prevailing market conditions through an ideological as well as ‘practice’ shift. Findings from qualitative research in Central Queensland, Australia has highlighted how ‘cell grazing’ departs from the traditional or conventional aspects of grazing which can be described as productivist, to an approach closely approximating Lang and Heasman’s (2004) ‘ecologically integrated paradigm’. It is argued that cell grazing is, at present, a marginal activity that requires an ideological and cultural shift, as well as an investment in new infrastructure, however, current cell grazing activities may also demonstrate that beef grazing has the potential to be both economically and environmentally sustainable.