Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Purposes of transnational higher education programs : lessons from two Indonesian universities

While intended to facilitate knowledge transfer from international universities and develop Indonesian universities’ capacity, transnational higher education programs (TEPs) in Indonesia have been criticised for operating merely as an international trade in education – implying discrepancy between the rhetoric and reality surrounding the key purposes for establishing TEPs among Indonesian universities. This case study seeks to ascertain what actually drives Indonesian universities to operate the TEPs. Interview and document data from two private Indonesian universities were thematically analysed to identify the key purposes for establishing TEPs in light of the conflicting global–national–local agendas and unequal power relations between TEP partners. The findings suggest the Indonesian universities actively advanced their particular institutional purposes within the Indonesian national agenda and negotiate mutually beneficial outcomes with their global partners. This study informs other universities to devise clear purposes and expectations in managing TEPs to avoid functioning merely as student recruitment pathways for international partners.

Rise of the eco warriors

A group of passionate and naïve young people leave their known worlds behind to spend 100 days in the jungles of Borneo. Their mission is to confront one of the great global challenges of our time, saving rainforests and giving hope to endangered orangutans. Their task is enormous and the odds are against them. Jojo, an orphaned baby orangutan, is entrusted in their care and they must find a way to return her to her forest home. To do this, they need to build an orangutan rehabilitation centre and find ways to help the local communities protect their forest. Under the guidance of their mentor Dr Willie Smits, they introduce an innovative satellite monitoring system called Earthwatchers and enlist the help of school students around the world. The system is put to the test when the bulldozers move in and threaten the future of a nearby community living in a traditional longhouse. This is a story about what it takes it be an eco-warrior, an individual willing to step up and take action to avert a global catastrophe taking place before our eyes. The eco-warriors represent a new generation, ready to face what is happening on our planet and willing to do something, no matter how small, to build a more humane and balanced world. For them, every individual matters, every action counts. - Written by Cathy Henkel

The phenomena of auditory hallucination as described by Indonesian people living with schizophrenia

This study was a phenomenological inquiry of the experience of auditory hallucinations as described by 13 Indonesian people diagnosed with schizophrenia. The interviewees included 6 men and 7 women and they were aged between 19 and 56 years. Four themes emerged from this study: feeling more like a robot than a human being; voices of contradiction - a point of confusion; tattered relationships and family disarray; and normalizing the presence of voices as part of everyday life. The findings of this study have the potential to contribute to new understandings of how people live with and manage auditory hallucinations and so enhance client-centered nursing care.

It's just an old apron : aprons, artefacts and art - representations of personal and private 'her-stories', as public histories

This paper examines art and artefact in the representation and recollection of deeply personal WWII women’s experiences as POW’s under the Japanese. This kind of treatment of internees in the Tjideng Women and Children’s internment camp (and others) in Batavia under the Japanese in WWII, stands in stark and brutal contrast to the idyllic life lived by many families up to that time in what was then known as the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia). The deprivation and brutality of the Japanese incarceration of these women and children evoked responses - not military, but certainly militant, if muted. Representations of those responses – as both art and artefact - may be found in the most unlikely places and unexpected forms - and are still being unearthed to this day. However close we might personally be to these artists and artisans, can we, as observers from a distance, ever truly comprehend through spoken or written words alone, the day-today realities of those extraordinary times?

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of body fat in Indonesian men

Body composition of 292 males aged between 18 and 65 years was measured using the deuterium oxide dilution technique. Participants were divided into development (n=146) and cross-validation (n=146) groups. Stature, body weight, skinfold thickness at eight sites, girth at five sites, and bone breadth at four sites were measured and body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) calculated. Equations were developed using multiple regression analyses with skinfolds, breadth and girth measures, BMI, and other indices as independent variables and percentage body fat (%BF) determined from deuterium dilution technique as the reference. All equations were then tested in the cross-validation group. Results from the reference method were also compared with existing prediction equations by Durnin and Womersley (1974), Davidson et al (2011), and Gurrici et al (1998). The proposed prediction equations were valid in our cross-validation samples with r=0.77- 0.86, bias 0.2-0.5%, and pure error 2.8-3.6%. The strongest was generated from skinfolds with r=0.83, SEE 3.7%, and AIC 377.2. The Durnin and Womersley (1974) and Davidson et al (2011) equations significantly (p<0.001) underestimated %BF by 1.0 and 6.9% respectively, whereas the Gurrici et al (1998) equation significantly (p<0.001) overestimated %BF by 3.3% in our cross-validation samples compared to the reference. Results suggest that the proposed prediction equations are useful in the estimation of %BF in Indonesian men.

Exploring pedestrian accessibility and walkability : insight from public place observations in inner-urban higher density Brisbane, Australia

As planners work to create more sustainable and liveable urban environments, a priority is to transition away from prioritising the automobile and towards enhancing the pedestrian experience. Thus, this research explores the experience of pedestrian accessibility in inner-urban higher-density Brisbane in Australia, drawing on findings from semi-structured in-depth interviews with 24 residents and over 100 hours of public place observations in three case-study neighbourhoods. The interviews took place in residents homes and explored their experience of higher density living and their neighbourhood, whilst observations were recorded through a combination of methods including photographs, sketch maps, recordings and field journals. Observation locations included retail and commercial space, roads, parkland and open space, with multiple observations at each location. A thematic analysis identified common themes in both interviews and the observations, with this paper focusing on residents’ lived experience in urban built environments. This analysis revealed that pedestrian accessibility is linked to access to local amenities and direct routes, aesthetics, sense of community, ownership of space and safety. In particular, observations revealed how pedestrian accessibility and route-taking works with, against or in spite of the design features of urban environments, as well as the importance of the social use of the built environment. Residents spoke about although walking quick and preferred for local amenities, the decision to walk was moderated by factors such as time of day and perceived safety. Measures to ensure and improve the pedestrian accessibility of urban areas needs to take into account the propensity for people to prefer and improvise direct routes (often to the detriment of traffic safety considerations), the importance of ongoing maintenance and upgrading of walking infrastructure and the importance of aesthetically pleasing and safe walking environments. By combining interviews and observations, this research highlights the current dominance of the automobile culture in Brisbane and the layers of meaning, experiences and complexity hidden within the pedestrian experience.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

Stagnancy in Indonesia���s reformed state asset management policies and practices : a wicked problem?

The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management have emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management. Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management. The purpose of this study is to explore and analyze specific contributing influences to state asset management practices, answering the question why innovative state asset management policy implementation is stagnant. The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, utilizing empirical data sample of four Indonesian regional governments. Through a thematic analytical approach this study provides an in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform. Such analysis suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in, as a means to ex-plain stagnant implementation of innovative state asset management practice. Thus this study offers deeper insights of the intricate web that influences state as-set management innovative policies to state asset management policy makers; to be taken into consideration in future policy writing.