Association between the interleukin 23 receptor and ankylosing spondylitis is confirmed by a new UK case-control study and meta-analysis of published series

Objectives. It has been shown previously that IL-23R variants are associated with AS. We conducted an extended analysis in the UK population and a meta-analysis with the previously published studies, in order to refine these IL-23R associations with AS. Methods. The UK case-control study included 730 new cases and 1331 healthy controls. In the extended study, the 730 cases were combined with 1088 published cases. Allelic associations were analysed using contingency tables. In the meta-analysis, 3482 cases and 3150 controls from four different published studies and the new UK cases were combined. DerSimonian-Laird test was used to calculate random effects pooled odds ratios (ORs). Results. In the UK case-control study with new cases, four of the eight SNPs showed significant associations, whereas in the extended UK study, seven of the eight IL-23R SNPs showed significant associations (P < 0.05) with AS, maximal with rs11209032 (P < 10-5, OR 1.3), when cases with IBD and/or psoriasis were excluded. The meta-analysis showed significant associations with all eight SNPs; the strongest associations were again seen not only with rs11209032 (P = 4.06 × 10-9, OR ∼1.2) but also with rs11209026 (P < 10-10, OR ∼0.6). Conclusions. IL-23R polymorphisms are clearly associated with AS, but the primary causal association(s) is(are) still not established. These polymorphisms could contribute either increased or decreased susceptibility to AS; functional studies will be required for their full evaluation. Additionally, observed stronger associations with SNPs rs11209026 and rs11465804 upon exclusion of IBD and/or psoriasis cases may represent an independent association with AS. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved.

On the efficacy of Fourier series approximations for pricing European options

This paper investigates several competing procedures for computing the prices of vanilla European options, such as puts, calls and binaries, in which the underlying model has a characteristic function that is known in semi-closed form. The algorithms investigated here are the half-range Fourier cosine series, the half-range Fourier sine series and the full-range Fourier series. Their performance is assessed in simulation experiments in which an analytical solution is available and also for a simple affine model of stochastic volatility in which there is no closed-form solution. The results suggest that the half-range sine series approximation is the least effective of the three proposed algorithms. It is rather more difficult to distinguish between the performance of the halfrange cosine series and the full-range Fourier series. However there are two clear differences. First, when the interval over which the density is approximated is relatively large, the full-range Fourier series is at least as good as the half-range Fourier cosine series, and outperforms the latter in pricing out-of-the-money call options, in particular with maturities of three months or less. Second, the computational time required by the half-range Fourier cosine series is uniformly longer than that required by the full-range Fourier series for an interval of fixed length. Taken together,these two conclusions make a case for pricing options using a full-range range Fourier series as opposed to a half-range Fourier cosine series if a large number of options are to be priced in as short a time as possible.

Standardised antibacterial Manuka honey in the management of persistent post-operative corneal oedema: A case series

Background Corneal oedema is a common post-operative problem that delays or prevents visual recovery from ocular surgery. Honey is a supersaturated solution of sugars with an acidic pH, high osmolarity and low water content. These characteristics inhibit the growth of micro-organisms, reduce oedema and promote epithelialisation. This clinical case series describes the use of a regulatory approved Leptospermum species honey ophthalmic product, in the management of post-operative corneal oedema and bullous keratopathy. Methods A retrospective review of 18 consecutive cases (30 eyes) with corneal oedema persisting beyond one month after single or multiple ocular surgical procedures (phacoemulsification cataract surgery and additional procedures) treated with Optimel Antibacterial Manuka Eye Drops twice to three times daily as an adjunctive therapy to conventional topical management with corticosteroid, aqueous suppressants, hypertonic sodium chloride five per cent, eyelid hygiene and artificial tears. Visual acuity and central corneal thickness were measured before and at the conclusion of Optimel treatment. Results A temporary reduction in corneal epithelial oedema lasting up to several hours was observed after the initial Optimel instillation and was associated with a reduction in central corneal thickness, resolution of epithelial microcysts, collapse of epithelial bullae, improved corneal clarity, improved visualisation of the intraocular structures and improved visual acuity. Additionally, with chronic use, reduction in punctate epitheliopathy, reduction in central corneal thickness and improvement in visual acuity were achieved. Temporary stinging after Optimel instillation was experienced. No adverse infectious or inflammatory events occurred during treatment with Optimel. Conclusions Optimel was a safe and effective adjunctive therapeutic strategy in the management of persistent post-operative corneal oedema and warrants further investigation in clinical trials.

Optimal designs for evaluating a series of treatments

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification of the error rates in practice. The reformulation also allows us to use conventional designs from published tables or standard computer programs to design trials for a series of treatments. We illustrate these using a study in soft tissue sarcoma.

Book Review: "Tony Kanellos (editor), Out of the Past: views of the Adelaide Botanic Gardens - a Series of Edwardian Era Postcards"

The extended title for this splendid visual feast is a catalogue to accompany the exhibition Postcards from the Edge of the City at the Santos Museum ofE conomic Botany, 9 December 2014 to 26 April 2015. As a catalogue this book contains the from and back sides of 300 postcards published between 1900 and 1917...

Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series

In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate unconditional skewness. We consider modeling the unconditional mean and variance using models that respond nonlinearly or asymmetrically to shocks. We investigate the implications of these models on the third-moment structure of the marginal distribution as well as conditions under which the unconditional distribution exhibits skewness and nonzero third-order autocovariance structure. In this respect, an asymmetric or nonlinear specification of the conditional mean is found to be of greater importance than the properties of the conditional variance. Several examples are discussed and, whenever possible, explicit analytical expressions provided for all third-order moments and cross-moments. Finally, we introduce a new tool, the shock impact curve, for investigating the impact of shocks on the conditional mean squared error of return series.

Anticipating Chinese Tourists Arrivals in Australia: A Time Series Analysis

Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991-2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.

THE DRINKING DRIVER, A guide to the five part series ONE FOR THE ROAD

THE DRINKING DRIVER is a guide for listeners to the Adult Education radio series ONE FOR THE ROAD, a five-part series on drink-driving and Australia’s road toll. ONE FOR THE ROAD was produced by Lee Parker and Julie Levi, with assistance from the Federal Office of Road Safety in Canberra. The five programs, presented by Lee Parker were first broadcast on ABC Radio National in January 1989, and repeated on Radio National and Regional Stations across Australia in April/May 1989. THE DRINKING DRIVER was written by Mark King, Senior Project Officer with the Road Safety Division of the South Australian Department of Transport.

Clancestry Conversation Series

The Clancestry Conversation series forms part of QPAC's Clancestry Festival which is an annual celebration of the arts and cultural practices of the world's First Nations Peoples with a particular focus on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.