Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Things that fall over : Women's playwriting, poetics and the (anti-)musical

Abstract: This study explores the contradictions and ambivalences experienced by a working artist at a time when her age, her gender, and broader cultural shifts are all potential obstacles or liabilities to creative flourishing. It is the product of practice-led research into the creative process from the perspective of the female "late bloomer". In this phrase, I have in mind the mature-aged woman who is, in mid-life, suddenly seized with inspiration and fired with creative energy. At its heart is the question: If an Elizabeth Jolley were in our midst today, would we hear from her? The result is a full-length libretto and accompanying exegetical binoculars in the form of a Preface and an Afterword. The creative work, Things That Fall Over (TTFO) is conceived in two parts: a libretto and oratorio for performance. It begins as a play, but over three acts and into a coda, the work becomes something entirely other - an (anti-) musical. The work grew from a personal interest in the nexus between women, ageing and creative practice, via investigation into the oeuvre of two Australian artists, Elizabeth Jolley, author, first published at age 53, and Rosalie Gascoigne, sculptor, first exhibited at 58. A second strand of the research grew from a fascination for the stage musical, especially in its more alternative modes as in the hands of Stephen Sondheim, or in more provocative manifestations as witnessed in recent Tony Award winners Avenue Q and The Book of Mormon. Contextually, this research is conducted at a time when anecdotal evidence suggests that women’s work in the performing arts and in literature is being pushed to the margins after a late twentieth century Golden Age on page and stage. Using hybrid practice-led methodologies - bricolage, log-keeping - and working within queer and feminist paradigms, this study seeks to counter that push with a new work that is all-female, part-pantomime, part monstrous allegory. In illuminating the creative process of a mature-aged playwright it concludes that hybrid and interstitial forms still offer an inclusive and democratic space in which voices that may otherwise be muted will continue to be heard.

'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

4000 years of phenotypic change in an island bird: heterogeneity of selection over three microevolutionary timescales.

Pronounced phenotypic shifts in island populations are typically attributed to natural selection, but reconstructing heterogeneity in long-term selective regimes remains a challenge. We examined a scenario of divergence proposed for species colonizing a new environment, involving directional selection with a rapid shift to a new optimum and subsequent stabilization. We provide some of the first empirical evidence for this model of evolution using morphological data from three timescales in an island bird, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus. In less than four millennia since separation from its mainland counterpart, a substantial increase in body size has occurred and was probably achieved in fewer than 500 generations after colonization. Over four recent decades, morphological traits have fluctuated in size but showed no significant directional trends, suggesting maintenance of a relatively stable phenotype. Finally, estimates of contemporary selection gradients indicated generally weak directional selection. These results provide a rare description of heterogeneity in long-term natural regimes, and caution that observations of current selection may be of limited value in inferring mechanisms of past adaptation due to a lack of constancy even over short time-frames.

Learning how to be responsive to public policy issues affecting SSSI members

Human survival depends on human ingenuity in using resources at hand to sustain human life. The historical record – in wrings and archaeological artefacts – provides evidence of the growth and collapse of political organisations and societies. In the institutions of Western civilisation, some traditions have endured over millennia where the roles of monarchs and public officials have been organised in perpetual succession. These roles were developed as conventions in the British Parliament after 1295 and provided the models of corporate governance in both public and private enterprise that have been continuously refined to the present day. In 2011, the Queensland Parliament legislated to introduce a new and more open system of scrutiny of legislation through a system of portfolio-based parliamentary committees. The committees began to function more actively in July 2012 and have inviting submissions from stakeholders and experts in a structured way to consider the government’s priorities in its legislative programme. The questions now are whether the Surveying and Spatial Sciences can respond expertly to address the terms of reference and meet the timetables of the various parliamentary committees. This paper discusses some of the more important and urgent issues that deserve debate that the profession needs to address in becoming more responsive to matters of public policy.

Talk and web searching in an early years classroom

Recent Australian early childhood policy and curriculum guidelines promoting the use of technologies invite investigations of young children’s practices in classrooms. This study examined the practices of one preparatory year classroom, to show teacher and child interactions as they engaged in Web searching. The study investigated the in situ practices of the teacher and children to show how they accomplished the Web search. The data corpus consists of eight hours of videorecorded interactions over three days where children and teachers engaged in Web searching. One episode was selected that showed a teacher and two children undertaking a Web search. The episode is shown to consist of four phases: deciding on a new search subject, inputting the search query, considering the result options, and exploring the selected result. The sociological perspectives of ethnomethodology and conversation analysis were employed as the conceptual and methodological frameworks of the study, to analyse the video-recorded teacher and child interactions as they co-constructed a Web search. Ethnomethodology is concerned with how people make ‘sense’ in everyday interactions, and conversation analysis focuses on the sequential features of interaction to show how the interaction unfolds moment by moment. This extended single case analysis showed how the Web search was accomplished over multiple turns, and how the children and teacher collaboratively engaged in talk. There are four main findings. The first was that Web searching featured sustained teacher-child interaction, requiring a particular sort of classroom organisation to enable the teacher to work in this sustained way. The second finding was that the teacher’s actions recognised the children’s interactional competence in situ, orchestrating an interactional climate where everyone was heard. The third finding was that the teacher drew upon a range of interactional resources designed to progress the activity at hand, that of accomplishing the Web search. The teacher drew upon the interactional resources of interrogatives, discourse markers, and multi-unit turns during the Web search, and these assisted the teacher and children to co-construct their discussion, decide upon and co-ordinate their future actions, and accomplish the Web search in a timely way. The fourth finding explicates how particular social and pedagogic orders are accomplished through talk, where children collaborated with each other and with the teacher to complete the Web search. The study makes three key recommendations for the field of early childhood education. The study’s first recommendation is that fine-grained transcription and analysis of interaction aids in understanding interactional practices of Web searching. This study offers material for use in professional development, such as using transcribed and videorecorded interactions to highlight how teachers strategically engage with children, that is, how talk works in classroom settings. Another strategy is to focus on the social interactions of members engaging in Web searches, which is likely to be of interest to teachers as they work to engage with children in an increasingly online environment. The second recommendation involves classroom organisation; how teachers consider and plan for extended periods of time for Web searching, and how teachers accommodate children’s prior knowledge of Web searching in their classrooms. The third recommendation is in relation to future empirical research, with suggested possible topics focusing on the social interactions of children as they engage with peers as they Web search, as well as investigations of techno-literacy skills as children use the Internet in the early years.

The case for good reviewing

After some years of remarkable growth, the scholarly field of Project Management (PM) research currently finds itself in a crucial stage of development. In this editorial, we make an analysis of submissions to PM's premier specialty journal, the International Journal of Project Management over the period 2007–2010, and argue that one of the most important ways in which PM research can further evolve is to pay more attention to the mundane, yet important, act of good reviewing — an activity that we believe has received relatively little attention in the PM community thus far. Let us begin by considering the crucial juncture that, as a scholarly discipline, PM is currently at. On the one hand, the PM research field is characterized by signs of major progress. For one, there has been a strong growth in terms of published output: recent years have seen the publication of three major edited volumes with a central focus on PM, published by top-tier publishers (Cattani et al., 2011, Kenis et al., 2009 and Morris et al., 2011); the PM/temporary organizations literature published in ISI ranked peer-reviewed articles is growing exponentially (Bakker, 2010); and besides some of the long-standing PM specialty journals, the field has recently seen the rise of a number of new journals, including the International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, the International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, and the Journal of Project, Program, and Portfolio Management.

On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.

Properties of hand-made clay balls used as a novel filter media

Filtration using granular media such as quarried sand, anthracite and granular activated carbon is a well-known technique used in both water and wastewater treatment. A relatively new prefiltration method called pebble matrix filtration (PMF) technology has been proved effective in treating high turbidity water during heavy rain periods that occur in many parts of the world. Sand and pebbles are the principal filter media used in PMF laboratory and pilot field trials conducted in the UK, Papua New Guinea and Serbia. However during first full-scale trials at a water treatment plant in Sri Lanka in 2008, problems were encountered in sourcing the required uniform size and shape of pebbles due to cost, scarcity and Government regulations on pebble dredging. As an alternative to pebbles, hand-made clay pebbles (balls) were fired in a kiln and their performance evaluated for the sustainability of the PMF system. These clay balls within a filter bed are subjected to stresses due to self-weight and overburden, therefore, it is important that clay balls should be able to withstand these stresses in water saturated conditions. In this paper, experimentally determined physical properties including compression failure load (Uniaxial Compressive Strength) and tensile strength at failure (theoretical) of hand-made clay balls are described. Hand-made clay balls fired between the kiln temperatures of 875oC to 960oC gave failure loads of between 3.0 kN and 7.1 kN. In another test when clay balls were fired to 1250oC the failure load was 35.0 kN compared to natural Scottish cobbles with an average failure load of 29.5 kN. The uniaxial compressive strength of clay balls obtained by experiment has been presented in terms of the tensile yield stress of clay balls. Based on the effective stress principle in soil mechanics, a method for the estimation of maximum theoretical load on clay balls used as filter media is proposed and compared with experimental failure loads.

ACE research vignette 022 : family business succession : when death takes a hand

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Dr. Mervyn Morris considers the impact on family business operations due to the sudden and unexpected death of a key family member.

Changing learning to improve practice : hand hygiene education in Queensland medical schools

The aim of Queensland Health’s ‘Clean hands are life savers’ program is to change the culture and behaviour of healthcare workers related to hand hygiene. Hand hygiene is considered to be the most effective means of preventing pathogen cross-transmission and healthcare-associated infections. Most hospitals throughout Queensland as well as Australia now manage a hand hygiene program to increase the hand hygiene compliance of all healthcare workers. Reports taken from routine hand hygiene observations reveal that doctors are usually less compliant in their hand-washing practices than other healthcare worker groups. The Centre for Healthcare Related Infection Surveillance and Prevention (CHRISP) has attempted to have an impact on this challenging group through their Medical Leadership Initiative. With education as a core component of the program, efforts were made to ensure our future doctors were receiving information that aligned with Queensland Health standards during their formative years at medical school. CHRISP met with university instructors to understand what infection prevention education was currently included in the curriculum and support the introduction of new learning activities that specifically focused on hand hygiene. This prompted change to the existing curriculum and a range of interventions were employed with mixed success. Although met with challenges, methods to integrate more infection prevention teaching were found.

Mixed convection over a horizontal plate with streamwise non-uniform surface temperature distribution

Numerical investigation on mixed convection of a two-dimensional incompressible laminar flow over a horizontal flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal distribution of surface temperature has been performed for different values of Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature for constant Prandtl number and amplitude of periodic temperature. Finite element method adapted to rectangular non-uniform mesh elements by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm basis numerical scheme has been employed. The investigating parameters are the Rayleigh number, the Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature. The effect of variation of individual investigating parameters on mixed convection flow characteristics has been studied to observe the hydrodynamic and thermal behavior for while keeping the other parameters constant. The fluid considered in this study is air with Prandtl number 0.72. The results are obtained for the Rayleigh number range of 102 to 104, Reynolds number ranging from 1 to 100 and the frequency of periodic temperature from 1 to 5. Isotherms, streamlines, average and local Nusselt numbers are presented to show the effect of the different values of aforementioned investigating parameters on fluid flow and heat transfer.

Perceptions of over-accommodation used by nurses in communication with the elderly

The aim of the study was to determine how aspects of communication between nurses and the elderly were perceived by elderly people, future nurses, and uninvolved observers. Respondents (elderly women and nursing and psychology students) rated videotapes of interactions between a nurse and an elderly woman on three dimensions: patronizing, status, and solidarity. Three communication strategies and their combinations were represented in the vignettes. Because the strategies presented were perceived as patronizing by all three groups, no group effect was found for the patronizing dimension. The results show clear group differences particularly between the nursing students and the elderly, with the elderly rating many of the strategies more positively than did the nursing students. The results are discussed in relation to previous evaluations of overaccommodation, and implications of the different perceptions are considered.

A reliable real-time transport protocol for control systems over wireless networks

Deploying networked control systems (NCSs) over wireless networks is becoming more and more popular. However, the widely-used transport layer protocols, Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and User Datagram Protocol (UDP), are not designed for real-time applications. Therefore, they may not be suitable for many NCS application scenarios because of their limitations on reliability and/or delay performance, which real-control systems concern. Considering a typical type of NCSs with periodic and sporadic real-time traffic, this paper proposes a highly reliable transport layer protocol featuring a packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism and a prioritized transmission mechanism. The packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism is designed to improve the reliability of all traffic flows. And the prioritized transmission mechanism offers differentiated services for periodic and sporadic flows. Simulation results show that the proposed protocol has better reliability than UDP and improved delay performance than TCP over wireless networks, particularly when channel errors and congestions occur.

Shear thinning and shear thickening non-Newtonian confined fluid flow over rotating cylinder

In present work, numerical solution is performed to study the confined flow of power-law non Newtonian fluids over a rotating cylinder. The main purpose is to evaluate drag and thermal coefficients as functions of the related governing dimensionless parameters, namely, power-law index (0.5 ≤ n ≤ 1.4), dimensionless rotational velocity (0 ≤ α ≤ 6) and the Reynolds number (100 ≤ Re ≤ 500). Over the range of Reynolds number, the flow is known to be steady. Results denoted that the increment of power law index and rotational velocity increases the drag coefficient due to momentum diffusivity improvement which is responsible for low rate of heat transfer, because the thicker the boundary layer, the lower the heat transfer is implemented.