Art in early childhood : the discourse of 'proper' teaching

This thesis is a problematisation of the teaching of art to young children. To problematise a domain of social endeavour, is, in Michel Foucault's terms, to ask how we come to believe that "something ... can and must be thought" (Foucault, 1985:7). The aim is to document what counts (i.e., what is sayable, thinkable, feelable) as proper art teaching in Queensland at this point ofhistorical time. In this sense, the thesis is a departure from more recognisable research on 'more effective' teaching, including critical studies of art teaching and early childhood teaching. It treats 'good teaching' as an effect of moral training made possible through disciplinary discourses organised around certain epistemic rules at a particular place and time. There are four key tasks accomplished within the thesis. The first is to describe an event which is not easily resolved by means of orthodox theories or explanations, either liberal-humanist or critical ones. The second is to indicate how poststructuralist understandings of the self and social practice enable fresh engagements with uneasy pedagogical moments. What follows this discussion is the documentation of an empirical investigation that was made into texts generated by early childhood teachers, artists and parents about what constitutes 'good practice' in art teaching. Twenty-two participants produced text to tell and re-tell the meaning of 'proper' art education, from different subject positions. Rather than attempting to capture 'typical' representations of art education in the early years, a pool of 'exemplary' teachers, artists and parents were chosen, using "purposeful sampling", and from this pool, three videos were filmed and later discussed by the audience of participants. The fourth aspect of the thesis involves developing a means of analysing these texts in such a way as to allow a 're-description' of the field of art teaching by attempting to foreground the epistemic rules through which such teacher-generated texts come to count as true ie, as propriety in art pedagogy. This analysis drew on Donna Haraway's (1995) understanding of 'ironic' categorisation to hold the tensions within the propositions inside the categories of analysis rather than setting these up as discursive oppositions. The analysis is therefore ironic in the sense that Richard Rorty (1989) understands the term to apply to social scientific research. Three 'ironic' categories were argued to inform the discursive construction of 'proper' art teaching. It is argued that a teacher should (a) Teach without teaching; (b) Manufacture the natural; and (c) Train for creativity. These ironic categories work to undo modernist assumptions about theory/practice gaps and finding a 'balance' between oppositional binary terms. They were produced through a discourse theoretical reading of the texts generated by the participants in the study, texts that these same individuals use as a means of discipline and self-training as they work to teach properly. In arguing the usefulness of such approaches to empirical data analysis, the thesis challenges early childhood research in arts education, in relation to its capacity to deal with ambiguity and to acknowledge contradiction in the work of teachers and in their explanations for what they do. It works as a challenge at a range of levels - at the level of theorising, of method and of analysis. In opening up thinking about normalised categories, and questioning traditional Western philosophy and the grand narratives of early childhood art pedagogy, it makes a space for re-thinking art pedagogy as "a game oftruth and error" (Foucault, 1985). In doing so, it opens up a space for thinking how art education might be otherwise.

The expression of ADAM-9 and -10 in prostate cancer and their regulation by dihydrotestosterone, insulin-like growth Factor-1 and epidermal growth factor

Prostrate Cancer(PCa)is the most common cause of cancer death amongst Western males. PCa occurs in two distinct stages. In its early stage, growth and development is dependent primarily on male sex hormones (androgens) such as testosterone, although other growth factors have roles maintaining PCa cell survival in this stage. In the later stage of PCa development, growth and.maintenance is independent of androgen stimulation and growth factors including Insulin-like Growth Factor -1 (IGf.:·l) and Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF) are thought to have more crucial roles in cell survival and PCa progression. PCa, in its late stages, is highly aggressive and metastatic, that is, tumorigenic cells migrate from the primary site of the body (prostate) and travel via the systemic and lymphatic circulation, residing and colonising in the bone, lymph node, lung, and in more rare cases, the brain. Metastasis involves both cell migration and tissue degradation activities. The degradation of the extracellular matrix (ECM), the tissue surrounding the organ, is mediated in part by members of a family of 26 proteins called the Matrix Metalloproteases (MMPs), whilst ceil adhesion molecules, of which proteins known as Integrins are included, mediate ce11 migration. A family of proteins known as the ADAMs (A Disintegrin . And Metalloprotease domain) were a recently characterised family at the commencement of this study and now comprise 34 members. Because of their dual nature, possessing an active metaiioprotease domain, homologous to that of the MMPs, and an integrin-binding domain capable of regulating cell-cell and cell-ECM contacts, it was thought likely that members of the ADAMs family may have implications for the progression of aggressive cancers such as those ofthe prostate. This study focussed on two particular ADAMs -9 and -10. ADAM-9 has an active metalloprotease domain, which has been shown to degrade constituents of the ECM, including fibronectin, in vitro. It also has an integrin-binding capacity through association with key integrins involved in PCa progression, such as a6~1. ADAM-10 has no such integrin binding activities, but its bovine orthologue, MADM, is able to degrade coHagen type IV, a major component of basement membranes. It is likely human ADAM-10 has the same activity. It is also known to cleave Ll -a protein involved in cell anchorage activities - and collagen type XVII - which is a principal component of the hemidesmosomes of cellular tight junctions. The cleavage of these proteins enables the cell to be released from the surrounding environment and commence migratory activities, as required in metastasis. Previous studies in this laboratory showed the mRNA expression of the five ADAMs -9,- 10, -11, -15 and -17 in PCa cell lines, characteristic of androgen-dependent and androgen independent disease. These studies were furthered by the characterisation of AD AM-9, -10 and -17 mRNA regulation by Dihydrotestosterone (DHT) in the androgen-responsive cell line (LNCaP). ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA levels were elevated in response to DHT stimulation. Further to these observations, the expression of ADAM-9 and -10 was shown in primary prostate biopsies from patients with PCa. ADAM-1 0 was expressed in the cytoplasm and on the ceH membrane in epithelial and basal cells ofbenign prostate glands, but in high-grade PCa glands, ADAM-I 0 expression was localised to the nucleus and its expression levels appeared to be elevated when compared to low-grade PCa glands. These studies provided a strong background for the hypothesis that ADAM-9 and -10 have key roles in the development ofPCa and provided a basis for further studies.The aims of this study were to: 1) characterise the expression, localisation and levels, of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein in cell models representing characteristics of normal through androgen-dependent to androgen-independent PCa, as well as to expand the primary PCa biopsy data for ADAM-9 and ADAM-10 to encompass PCa bone metastases 2) establish an in vitro cell system, which could express elevated levels of ADAM-1 0 so that functional cell-based assays such as cell migration, invasion and attachment could be carried out, and 3) to extend the previous hormonal regulation data, to fully characterise the response of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein levels to DHT, IGF-1, DHT plus IGF-1 and EGF in the hormonal/growth factor responsive cell line LNCaP. For aim 1 (expression of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein), ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA were characterised by R T -PCR, while their protein products were analysed by Western blot. Both ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein were expressed at readily detectable levels across progressively metastatic PCa cell lines model that represent characteristics of low-grade,. androgen-dependent (LNCaP and C4) to high-grade, androgen-independent (C4-2 and C4-2B) PCa. When the non-tumorigenic prostate cell line RWPE-1 was compared with the metastatic PCa cell line PC-3, differential expression patterns were seen by Western blot analysis. For ADAM-9, the active form was expressed at higher levels in RWPE-1, whilst subcellular fractionation showed that the active form of ADAM-9 was predominantly located in the cell nucleus. For ADAM-I 0, in both of the cell Jines, a nuclear specific isoform of the mature, catalytically active ADAM-I 0 was found. This isoforrn differed by -2 kDa in Mr (smaller) than the cytoplasmic specific isoform. Unprocessed ADAM-I 0 was readily detected in R WPE-1 cell lines but only occasionally detected in PC-3 cell lines. Immunocytochemistry using ADAM-9 and -10 specific antibodies confirmed nuclear, cytoplasmic and membrane expression of both ADAMs in these two cell lines. To examine the possibility of ADAM-9 and -10 being shed into the extracellular environment, membrane vesicles that are constitutively shed from the cell surface and contain membrane-associated proteins were collected from the media of the prostate cell lines RWPE-1, LNCaP and PC-3. ADAM-9 was readily detectable in RWPE- 1 and LNCaP cell membrane vesicles by Western blot analysis, but not in PC-3 cells, whilst the expression of ADAM-I 0 was detected in shed vesicles from each of these prostate cell lines. By Laser Capture Microdissection (LCM), secretory epithelial cells of primary prostate gland biopsies were isolated from benign and malignant glands. These secretory cells, by Western blot analysis, expressed similar Mr bands for ADAM-9 and -10 that were found in PCa cell lines in vitro, indicating that the nuclear specific isoforrn of ADAM-I 0 was present in PCa primary tumours and may represent the predominantly nuclear form of ADAM-I 0 expression, previously shown in high-grade PCa by immunohistochemistry (IHC). ADAM-9 and -10 were also examined by IHC in bone metastases taken from PCa patients at biopsy. Both ADAMs could be detected at levels similar to those shown for Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) in these biopsies. Furthermore, both ADAM-9 and -10 were predominantly membrane- bound with occasional nuclear expression. For aim 2, to establish a cell system that over-expressed levels of ADAM-10, two fulllength ADAM-I 0 mammalian expression vectors were constructed; ADAM-I 0 was cloned into pcDNA3.1, which contains a CMV promoter, and into pMEP4, containing an inducible metallothionine promoter, whose activity is stimulated by the addition of CdC}z. The efficiency of these two constructs was tested by way of transient transfection in the PCa cell line PC-3, whilst the pcDNA3.1 construct was also tested in the RWPE-1 prostate cell line. Resultant Western blot analysis for all transient transfection assays showed that levels of ADAM-I 0 were not significantly elevated in any case, when compared to levels of the housekeeping gene ~-Tubulin, despite testing various levels of vector DNA, and, for pMEP4, the induction of the transfected cell system with different degrees of stimulation with CdCh to activate the metallothionine promoter post-transfection. Another study in this laboratory found similar results when the same full length ADAM-10 sequence was cloned into a Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) expressing vector, as no fluorescence was observed by means of transient tran sfection in the same, and other, PCa cell lines. It was hypothesised that the Kozak sequence included in the full-length construct (human ADAMI 0 naturally occurring sequence) is not strong enough to initiate translation in an artificial system, in cells, which, as described in Aim 1, are already expressing readily detectable levels of endogenous ADAM-10. As a result, time constraints prevented any further progress with Aim 2 and functional studies including cell attachment, invasion and migration were unable to be explored. For Aim 3, to characterise the response of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein levels to DHT, IGF-1, DHT plus IGF-1 and EGF in LNCaP cells, the levels of ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA were not stimulated by DHT or IGF-I alone, despite our previous observations that initially characterised ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA as being responsive to DHT. However, IGF-1 in synergy with DHT did significantly elevate mRNA levels ofboth ADAMs. In the case of ADAM-9 and -10 protein, the same trends of stimulation as found at the rnRNA level were shown by Western blot analysis when ADAM-9 and -10 signal intensity was normalised with the housekeeping protein ~-Tubulin. For EGF treatment, both ADAM-9 and -10 mRNA and protein levels were significantly elevated, and further investigation vm found this to be the case for each of these ADAMs proteins in the nuclear fractions of LNCaP cells. These studies are the first to describe extensively, the expression and hormonal/growth factor regulation of two members of the ADAMs family ( -9 and -1 0) in PCa. These observations imply that the expression of ADAM-9 and -10 have varied roles in PCa whilst it develops from androgen-sensitive (early stage disease), through to an androgeninsensitive (late-stage), metastatic disease. Further studies are now required to investigate the several key areas of focus that this research has revealed, including: • Investigation of the cellular mechanisms that are involved in actively transporting the ADAMs to the cell's nuclear compartment and the ADAMs functional roles in the cell nucleus. • The construction of a full-length human ADAM-10 mammalian expression construct with the introduction of a new Kozak sequence, that elevates ADAM-I 0 expression in an in vitro cell system are required, so that functional assays such as cell invasion, migration and attachment may be carried out to fmd the functional consequences of ADAM expression on cellular behaviour. • The regulation studies also need to be extended by confirming the preliminary observations that the nuclear levels of ADAMs may also be elevated by hormones and growth factors such as DHT, IGF-1 and EGF, as well as the regulation of levels of plasma membrany vesicle associated ADAM expression. Given the data presented in this study, it is likely the ADAMs have differential roles throughout the development of PCa due to their differential cellular localisation and synergistic growth-factor regulation. These observations, along with those further studies outlined above, are necessary in identifying these specific components ofPCa metastasis to which the ADAMs may contribute.

A GIS framework for streamlining the Nature Refuge Gazettal process

Nature Refuges encompass the second largest extent of protected area estate in Queensland. Major problems exist in the data capture, map presentation, data quality and integrity of these boundaries. The spatial accuracies/inaccuracies of the Nature Refuge administrative boundaries directly influence the ability to preserve valuable ecosystems by challenging negative environmental impacts on these properties. This research work is about supporting the Nature Refuge Programs efforts to secure Queensland’s natural and cultural values on private land by utilising GIS and its advanced functionalities. The research design organizes and enters Queensland’s Nature Refuge boundaries into a spatial environment. Survey quality data collection techniques such as the Global Positioning Systems (GPS) are investigated to capture Nature Refuge boundary information. Using the concepts of map communication GIS Cartography is utilised for the protected area plan design. New spatial datasets are generated facilitating the effectiveness of investigative data analysis. The geodatabase model developed by this study adds rich GIS behaviour providing the capability to store, query, and manipulate geographic information. It provides the ability to leverage data relationships and enforces topological integrity creating savings in customization and productivity. The final phase of the research design incorporates the advanced functions of ArcGIS. These functions facilitate building spatial system models. The geodatabase and process models developed by this research can be easily modified and the data relating to mining can be replaced by other negative environmental impacts affecting the Nature Refuges. Results of the research are presented as graphs and maps providing visual evidence supporting the usefulness of GIS as means for capturing, visualising and enhancing spatial quality and integrity of Nature Refuge boundaries.

Discrete choice modelling of combined mode and departure time

Typical daily decision-making process of individuals regarding use of transport system involves mainly three types of decisions: mode choice, departure time choice and route choice. This paper focuses on the mode and departure time choice processes and studies different model specifications for a combined mode and departure time choice model. The paper compares different sets of explanatory variables as well as different model structures to capture the correlation among alternatives and taste variations among the commuters. The main hypothesis tested in this paper is that departure time alternatives are also correlated by the amount of delay. Correlation among different alternatives is confirmed by analyzing different nesting structures as well as error component formulations. Random coefficient logit models confirm the presence of the random taste heterogeneity across commuters. Mixed nested logit models are estimated to jointly account for the random taste heterogeneity and the correlation among different alternatives. Results indicate that accounting for the random taste heterogeneity as well as inter-alternative correlation improves the model performance.

The ontological deficiencies of process modeling in practice

Business process modeling is widely regarded as one of the most popular forms of conceptual modeling. However, little is known about the capabilities and deficiencies of process modeling grammars and how existing deficiencies impact actual process modeling practice. This paper is a first contribution towards a theory-driven, exploratory empirical investigation of the ontological deficiencies of process modeling with the industry standard Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN). We perform an analysis of BPMN using a theory of ontological expressiveness. Through a series of semi-structured interviews with BPMN adopters we explore empirically the actual use of this grammar. Nine ontological deficiencies related to the practice of modeling with BPMN are identified, for example, the capture of business rules and the specification of process decompositions. We also uncover five contextual factors that impact on the use of process modeling grammars, such as tool support and modeling conventions. We discuss implications for research and practice, highlighting the need for consideration of representational issues and contextual factors in decisions relating to BPMN adoption in organizations.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Use of electronic travel diaries and vehicle instrumentation packages in the year 2000 : Atlanta Regional Household Travel Survey

The Georgia Institute of Technology is currently performing research that will result in the development and deployment of three instrumentation packages that allow for automated capture of personal travel-related data for a given time period (up to 10 days). These three packages include: A handheld electronic travel diary (ETD) with Global Positioning System (GPS) capabilities to capture trip information for all modes of travel; A comprehensive electronic travel monitoring system (CETMS), which includes an ETD, a rugged laptop computer, a GPS receiver and antenna, and an onboard engine monitoring system, to capture all trip and vehicle information; and a passive GPS receiver, antenna, and data logger to capture vehicle trips only.

Privacy and trust management for electronic health records

Establishing a nationwide Electronic Health Record system has become a primary objective for many countries around the world, including Australia, in order to improve the quality of healthcare while at the same time decreasing its cost. Doing so will require federating the large number of patient data repositories currently in use throughout the country. However, implementation of EHR systems is being hindered by several obstacles, among them concerns about data privacy and trustworthiness. Current IT solutions fail to satisfy patients’ privacy desires and do not provide a trustworthiness measure for medical data. This thesis starts with the observation that existing EHR system proposals suer from six serious shortcomings that aect patients’ privacy and safety, and medical practitioners’ trust in EHR data: accuracy and privacy concerns over linking patients’ existing medical records; the inability of patients to have control over who accesses their private data; the inability to protect against inferences about patients’ sensitive data; the lack of a mechanism for evaluating the trustworthiness of medical data; and the failure of current healthcare workflow processes to capture and enforce patient’s privacy desires. Following an action research method, this thesis addresses the above shortcomings by firstly proposing an architecture for linking electronic medical records in an accurate and private way where patients are given control over what information can be revealed about them. This is accomplished by extending the structure and protocols introduced in federated identity management to link a patient’s EHR to his existing medical records by using pseudonym identifiers. Secondly, a privacy-aware access control model is developed to satisfy patients’ privacy requirements. The model is developed by integrating three standard access control models in a way that gives patients access control over their private data and ensures that legitimate uses of EHRs are not hindered. Thirdly, a probabilistic approach for detecting and restricting inference channels resulting from publicly-available medical data is developed to guard against indirect accesses to a patient’s private data. This approach is based upon a Bayesian network and the causal probabilistic relations that exist between medical data fields. The resulting definitions and algorithms show how an inference channel can be detected and restricted to satisfy patients’ expressed privacy goals. Fourthly, a medical data trustworthiness assessment model is developed to evaluate the quality of medical data by assessing the trustworthiness of its sources (e.g. a healthcare provider or medical practitioner). In this model, Beta and Dirichlet reputation systems are used to collect reputation scores about medical data sources and these are used to compute the trustworthiness of medical data via subjective logic. Finally, an extension is made to healthcare workflow management processes to capture and enforce patients’ privacy policies. This is accomplished by developing a conceptual model that introduces new workflow notions to make the workflow management system aware of a patient’s privacy requirements. These extensions are then implemented in the YAWL workflow management system.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculator for Grain and Biofuel Farming Systems

Greenhouse gas markets, where invisible gases are traded, must seem like black boxes to most people. Farmers can make money on these markets, such as the Chicago Climate Exchange, by installing methane capture technologies in animal-based systems, no-till farming, establishing grasslands, and planting trees.

Wide-baseline keypoint detection and matching with wide-angle images for vision based localisation

This thesis addresses the problem of detecting and describing the same scene points in different wide-angle images taken by the same camera at different viewpoints. This is a core competency of many vision-based localisation tasks including visual odometry and visual place recognition. Wide-angle cameras have a large field of view that can exceed a full hemisphere, and the images they produce contain severe radial distortion. When compared to traditional narrow field of view perspective cameras, more accurate estimates of camera egomotion can be found using the images obtained with wide-angle cameras. The ability to accurately estimate camera egomotion is a fundamental primitive of visual odometry, and this is one of the reasons for the increased popularity in the use of wide-angle cameras for this task. Their large field of view also enables them to capture images of the same regions in a scene taken at very different viewpoints, and this makes them suited for visual place recognition. However, the ability to estimate the camera egomotion and recognise the same scene in two different images is dependent on the ability to reliably detect and describe the same scene points, or ‘keypoints’, in the images. Most algorithms used for this purpose are designed almost exclusively for perspective images. Applying algorithms designed for perspective images directly to wide-angle images is problematic as no account is made for the image distortion. The primary contribution of this thesis is the development of two novel keypoint detectors, and a method of keypoint description, designed for wide-angle images. Both reformulate the Scale- Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) as an image processing operation on the sphere. As the image captured by any central projection wide-angle camera can be mapped to the sphere, applying these variants to an image on the sphere enables keypoints to be detected in a manner that is invariant to image distortion. Each of the variants is required to find the scale-space representation of an image on the sphere, and they differ in the approaches they used to do this. Extensive experiments using real and synthetically generated wide-angle images are used to validate the two new keypoint detectors and the method of keypoint description. The best of these two new keypoint detectors is applied to vision based localisation tasks including visual odometry and visual place recognition using outdoor wide-angle image sequences. As part of this work, the effect of keypoint coordinate selection on the accuracy of egomotion estimates using the Direct Linear Transform (DLT) is investigated, and a simple weighting scheme is proposed which attempts to account for the uncertainty of keypoint positions during detection. A word reliability metric is also developed for use within a visual ‘bag of words’ approach to place recognition.

The mandatory notification of data breaches : issues arising for Australian and EU legal developments

Public and private sector organisations are now able to capture and utilise data on a vast scale, thus heightening the importance of adequate measures for protecting unauthorised disclosure of personal information. In this respect, data breach notification has emerged as an issue of increasing importance throughout the world. It has been the subject of law reform in the United States and in other jurisdictions. This article reviews US, Australian and EU legal developments regarding the mandatory notification of data breaches. The authors highlight areas of concern based on the extant US experience that require further consideration in Australia and in the EU.

Vision based control for fixed wing UAVs inspecting locally linear infrastructure using skid-to-turn maneuvers

The following paper proposes a novel application of Skid-to-Turn maneuvers for fixed wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) inspecting locally linear infrastructure. Fixed wing UAVs, following the design of manned aircraft, commonly employ Bank-to-Turn ma- neuvers to change heading and thus direction of travel. Whilst effective, banking an aircraft during the inspection of ground based features hinders data collection, with body fixed sen- sors angled away from the direction of turn and a panning motion induced through roll rate that can reduce data quality. By adopting Skid-to-Turn maneuvers, the aircraft can change heading whilst maintaining wings level flight, thus allowing body fixed sensors to main- tain a downward facing orientation. An Image-Based Visual Servo controller is developed to directly control the position of features as captured by onboard inspection sensors. This improves on the indirect approach taken by other tracking controllers where a course over ground directly above the feature is assumed to capture it centered in the field of view. Performance of the proposed controller is compared against that of a Bank-to-Turn tracking controller driven by GPS derived cross track error in a simulation environment developed to replicate the field of view of a body fixed camera.

Investigating the hydrodynamic performance of a gross pollutant trap

Field studies show that the internal screens in a gross pollutant trap (GPT) are often clogged with organic matter, due to infrequent cleaning. The hydrodynamic performance of a GPT with fully blocked screens was comprehensively investigated under a typical range of onsite operating conditions. Using an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV), velocity profiles across three critical sections of the GPT were measured and integrated to examine the net fluid flow at each section. The data revealed that when the screens are fully blocked, the flow structure within the GPT radically changes. Consequently, the capture/retention performance of the device rapidly deteriorates. Good agreement was achieved between the experimental and the previous 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) velocity profiles for the lower GPT inlet flow conditions.

On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.