Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

A medical data reliability assessment model

There is currently a strong focus worldwide on the potential of large-scale Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems to cut costs and improve patient outcomes through increased efficiency. This is accomplished by aggregating medical data from isolated Electronic Medical Record databases maintained by different healthcare providers. Concerns about the privacy and reliability of Electronic Health Records are crucial to healthcare service consumers. Traditional security mechanisms are designed to satisfy confidentiality, integrity, and availability requirements, but they fail to provide a measurement tool for data reliability from a data entry perspective. In this paper, we introduce a Medical Data Reliability Assessment (MDRA) service model to assess the reliability of medical data by evaluating the trustworthiness of its sources, usually the healthcare provider which created the data and the medical practitioner who diagnosed the patient and authorised entry of this data into the patient’s medical record. The result is then expressed by manipulating health record metadata to alert medical practitioners relying on the information to possible reliability problems.

A time-variant medical data trustworthiness assessment model

Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems are being introduced to overcome the limitations associated with paper-based and isolated Electronic Medical Record (EMR) systems. This is accomplished by aggregating medical data and consolidating them in one digital repository. Though an EHR system provides obvious functional benefits, there is a growing concern about the privacy and reliability (trustworthiness) of Electronic Health Records. Security requirements such as confidentiality, integrity, and availability can be satisfied by traditional hard security mechanisms. However, measuring data trustworthiness from the perspective of data entry is an issue that cannot be solved with traditional mechanisms, especially since degrees of trust change over time. In this paper, we introduce a Time-variant Medical Data Trustworthiness (TMDT) assessment model to evaluate the trustworthiness of medical data by evaluating the trustworthiness of its sources, namely the healthcare organisation where the data was created and the medical practitioner who diagnosed the patient and authorised entry of this data into the patient’s medical record, with respect to a certain period of time. The result can then be used by the EHR system to manipulate health record metadata to alert medical practitioners relying on the information to possible reliability problems.

Applying Keller’s brand equity model in a B2B context : limitations and an empirical test

It has been recognised that brands play a role in industrial markets, but to date a comprehensive model of business-to-business (B2B) branding does not exist, nor has there been an empirical study of the applicability of a full brand equity model in a B2B context. This paper is the first to begin to address these issues. The paper introduces the Customer- Based Brand Equity (CBBE) model by Kevin Keller (1993; 2001; 2003), and empirically tests its applicability in the market of electronic tracking systems for waste management. While Keller claims that the CBBE pyramid can be applied in a B2B context, this research highlights challenges of such an application, and suggests changes to the model are required. Assessing the equity of manufacturers’ brand names is more appropriate than measuring the equity of individual product brands as suggested by Keller. Secondly, the building blocks of Keller’s model appear useful in an organisational context, although differences in the subdimensions are required. Brand feelings appear to lack relevance in the industrial market investigated, and the pinnacle of Keller’s pyramid, resonance, needs serious modifications. Finally, company representatives play a role in building brand equity, indicating a need for this human element to be recognised in a B2B model.

An application of Keller’s brand equity model in a B2B context

Purpose – The importance of branding in industrial contexts has increased, yet a comprehensive model of business-to-business (B2B) branding does not exist, nor has there been a thoroughempirical study of the applicability of a full brand equitymodel in a B2B context. This paper aims to discuss the suitability and limitations of Keller’s customer-based brand equity model and tests its applicability in a B2B market. Design/methodology/approach – The study involved the use of semi-structured interviews with senior buyers of technology for electronic tracking of waste management. Findings – Findings suggest that amongst organisational buyers there is a much greater emphasis on the selling organisation, including its corporate brand, credibility and staff, than on individual brands and their associated dimensions. Research limitations/implications – The study investigates real brands with real potential buyers, so there is a risk that the results may represent industry-specific factors that are not representative of all B2B markets. Future research that validates the importance of the Keller elements in other industrial marketing contexts would be beneficial. Practical implications – The findings are relevant for marketing practitioners, researchers and managers as a starting-point for their B2B brand equity research. Originality/value – Detailed insights and key lessons from the field with regard to how B2B brand equity should be conceptualised and measured are offered. A revised brand equity model for B2B application is also presented.

Curvilinear relationships between the job demands-resources (JD-R) model, and work engagement : a police service case study

The current study aims to investigate the non-linear relationship between the JD-R model and work engagement. Previous research has identified linear relationships between these constructs; however there are strong theoretical arguments for testing curvilinear relationships (e.g., Warr, 1987). Data were collected via a self-report online survey from officers of one Australian police service (N = 2,626). Results demonstrated a curvilinear relationship between job demands and job resources and engagement. Gender (as a control variable) was also found to be a significant predictor of work engagement. The results indicated that male police officers experienced significantly higher job demands and colleague support than female officers. However, female police officers reported significantly higher levels of work engagement than male officers. This study emphasises the need to test curvilinear relationships, as well as simple linear associations, when measuring psychological health.

Chlamydial infection and spatial ascension of the female genital tract : a novel hybrid cellular automata and continuum mathematical model

Sexually transmitted chlamydial infection initially establishes in the endocervix in females, but if the infection ascends the genital tract, significant disease, including infertility, can result. Many of the mechanisms associated with chlamydial infection kinetics and disease ascension are unknown. We attempt to elucidate some of these processes by developing a novel mathematical model, using a cellular automata–partial differential equation model. We matched our model outputs to experimental data of chlamydial infection of the guinea-pig cervix and carried out sensitivity analyses to determine the relative influence of model parameters. We found that the rate of recruitment and action of innate immune cells to clear extracellular chlamydial particles and the rate of passive movement of chlamydial particles are the dominant factors in determining the early course of infection, magnitude of the peak chlamydial time course and the time of the peak. The rate of passive movement was found to be the most important factor in determining whether infection would ascend to the upper genital tract. This study highlights the importance of early innate immunity in the control of chlamydial infection and the significance of motility-diffusive properties and the adaptive immune response in the magnitude of infection and in its ascension.

Developing an integrative model for understanding innovation adoption

We develop and test a theoretically-based integrative model of organizational innovation adoption. Confirmatory factor analyses using responses from 134 organizations showed that the hypothesized second-order model was a better fit to the data than the traditional model of independent factors. Furthermore, although not all elements were significant, the hypothesized model fit adoption better than the traditional model.

The Order Fulfillment Process Model

This appendix describes the Order Fulfillment process followed by a fictitious company named Genko Oil. The process is freely inspired by the VICS (Voluntary Inter-industry Commerce Solutions) reference model1 and provides a demonstration of YAWL’s capabilities in modelling complex control-flow, data and resourcing requirements.

Incorporating an economic model in the health impact assessment approach

The current policy decision making in Australia regarding non-health public investments (for example, transport/housing/social welfare programmes) does not quantify health benefits and costs systematically. To address this knowledge gap, this study proposes an economic model for quantifying health impacts of public policies in terms of dollar value. The intention is to enable policy-makers in conducting economic evaluation of health effects of non-health policies and in implementing policies those reduce health inequalities as well as enhance positive health gains of the target population. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides an appropriate framework for this study since HIA assesses the beneficial and adverse effects of a programme/policy on public health and on health inequalities through the distribution of those effects. However, HIA usually tries to influence the decision making process using its scientific findings, mostly epidemiological and toxicological evidence. In reality, this evidence can not establish causal links between policy and health impacts since it can not explain how an individual or a community reacts to changing circumstances. The proposed economic model addresses this health-policy linkage using a consumer choice approach that can explain changes in group and individual behaviour in a given economic set up. The economic model suggested in this paper links epidemiological findings with economic analysis to estimate the health costs and benefits of public investment policies. That is, estimating dollar impacts when health status of the exposed population group changes by public programmes – for example, transport initiatives to reduce congestion by building new roads/ highways/ tunnels etc. or by imposing congestion taxes. For policy evaluation purposes, the model is incorporated in the HIA framework by establishing association among identified factors, which drive changes in the behaviour of target population group and in turn, in the health outcomes. The economic variables identified to estimate the health inequality and health costs are levels of income, unemployment, education, age groups, disadvantaged population groups, mortality/morbidity etc. However, though the model validation using case studies and/or available database from Australian non-health policy (say, transport) arena is in the future tasks agenda, it is beyond the scope of this current paper.

Desktop Audit and Analysis of Model Server Capability

This report presents the current state and approach in Building Information Modelling (BIM). The report is focussed at providing a desktop audit of the current state and capabilities of the products and applications supporting BIM. This includes discussion on BIM model servers as well as discipline specific applications, for which the distinction is explained below. The report presented here is aimed at giving a broad overview of the tools and applications with respect to their BIM capabilities and in no way claims to be an exhaustive report for individual tools. Chapter 4 of the report includes the research and development agendas pertaining to the BIM approach based on the observations and analysis from the desktop audit.

The influence of ad model ethnicity and self-referencing on attitudes evidence from New Zealand

This paper examines consumers self-referencing as a mechanism for explaining ethnicity effects in advertising. Data was collected from a 2 (model ethnicity: Asian, white) x 2 (product stereotypicality: stereotypical, non-stereotypical) experiment. Measured independent variables included participant ethnicity and self-referencing. Results shows that (1) Asian exhibit greater self-referencing of Asian models than whites do; (2) self-referencing mediates ethnicity effects on attitude ( ie, attitude towards the model, attitude toward the add, brand attitude, and purchase intentions); (3) high self-referencing Asian have more favourable attitude towards the add and purchase intentions than low self referencing Asians; and (4) Asian models advertising atypical products generate more self-referencing and more favourable attitudes toward the model, A, and purchase intentions for both Asians and whites.

A reflective model for colour studies learning

In a university context how should colour be taught in order to engage students? Entwistle states, ‘What we learn depends on how we learn, and why we have to learn it.’ Therefore, there is a need to address the accumulating evidence that highlights the effects of learning environments on the quality of student learning when considering colour education. It is necessary to embrace the contextual demands while ensuring that the student knowledge of colour and the joy of discovering its characteristics in practice are enhanced. Institutional policy is forcing educators to re-evaluate traditional studio’s effectiveness and the intensive 'hands-on' interactive approach that is embedded in such an approach. As curriculum development involves not only theory and project work, the classroom culture and physical environment also need to be addressed. The increase in student numbers impacting the number of academic staff/student ratio, availability of teaching support as well as increasing variety of student age, work commitments, learning styles and attitudes have called for positive changes to how we teach. The Queensland University of Technology’s restructure in 2005 was a great opportunity to re-evaluate and redesign the approach to teaching within the design units of Interior Design undergraduate program –including colour. The resultant approach “encapsulates a mode of delivery, studio structure, as well as the learning context in which students and staff interact to facilitate learning”1 with a potential “to be integrated into a range of Interior Design units as it provides an adaptive educational framework rather than a prescriptive set of rules”.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.