Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

Computational analysis of laminated glass panels under blast loads: A comparison of two dimensional and three dimensional modelling approaches

This paper illustrates the use of finite element (FE) technique to investigate the behaviour of laminated glass (LG) panels under blast loads. Two and three dimensional (2D and 3D) modelling approaches available in LS-DYNA FE code to model LG panels are presented. Results from the FE analysis for mid-span deflection and principal stresses compared well with those from large deflection plate theory. The FE models are further validated using the results from a free field blast test on a LG panel. It is evident that both 2D and 3D LG models predict the experimental results with reasonable accuracy. The 3D LG models give slightly more accurate results but require considerably more computational time compared to the 2D LG models.

Inpatients had mostly negative experiences of seclusion during short term treatment in a mental health facility

Design Semi-structured interviews. Setting 2 open, acute care units of a large tertiary mental health facility in Queensland, Australia. Patients 12 patients (58% men) who were 18–52 years of age and were secluded in the previous 7 days (mean duration 3.4 h). Methods Semi-structured, thematically organised interviews were audiotaped and transcribed. Transcripts were checked for errors against the audiotaped versions and were analysed using the process of meaning categorisation. Themes were identified and coded to produce categories. All members of the research team agreed on the final categorisations. These broad categories were further analysed, and themes were used to reflect patients' experiences of seclusion. Main findings 5 recurrent themes emerged. (1) Patients described the use of seclusion. Some patients thought that seclusion was used inappropriately and that the seclusion period was of more benefit to …

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network Framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and Exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an $R^2$ goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 hour test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including real time monitoring and `what-if' analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

Auto-inhibition of hydrogen gas evolution on gold in aqueous acid solution

It was demonstrated recently that dramatic changes in the redox behaviour of gold/aqueous solution interfaces may be observed following either cathodic or thermal electrode pretreatment. Further work on the cathodic pretreatment of gold in acid solution revealed that as the activity of the gold surface was increased, its performance as a substrate for hydrogen gas evolution under constant potential conditions deteriorated. The change in activity of the gold atoms at the interface, which was attributed to a hydrogen embrittlement process (the occurrence of the latter was subsequently checked by surface microscopy), was confirmed, as in earlier work, by the appearance of a substantial anodic peak at ca. 0.5 V (RHE) in a post-activation positive sweep. Changes in the catalytic activity of a metal surface reflect the fact that the structure (or topography), thermodynamic activity and electronic properties of a surface are dependent not only on pretreatment but also, in the case of the hydrogen evolution reaction, vary with time during the course of reaction. As will be reported shortly, similar (and often more dramatic) time-dependent behaviour was observed for hydrogen gas evolution on other metal electrodes.

Complex Modelling in the Primary and Middle School Years : An Interdisciplinary Approach

The world’s increasing complexity, competitiveness, interconnectivity, and dependence on technology generate new challenges for nations and individuals that cannot be met by continuing education as usual. With the proliferation of complex systems have come new technologies for communication, collaboration, and conceptualisation. These technologies have led to signifi cant changes in the forms of mathematical and scientifi c thinking required beyond the classroom. Modelling, in its various forms, can develop and broaden students’ mathematical and scientific thinking beyond the standard curriculum. This chapter first considers future competencies in the mathematical sciences within an increasingly complex world. Consideration is then given to interdisciplinary problem solving and models and modelling, as one means of addressing these competencies. Illustrative case studies involving complex, interdisciplinary modelling activities in Years 1 and 7 are presented.

Modelling the salient factors influencing retired business professionals' participation in episodic skilled volunteering in rural settings

Retired business professionals represent an unexplored source of skill support for struggling rural communities. This research examined the feasibility of drawing on this valuable pool of knowledge and experience by engaging retirees in short term, project based volunteering roles in rural, not for profit agencies. Using the theory of planned behaviour and the functional approach to volunteering, the program of study generated a model comprising the key psychological and contextual factors determining the volunteers' decision to provide skill assistance in rural settings. The model provides a useful resource for creating suitable volunteering opportunities and for informing volunteer recruitment strategies.

Exploring influencing factors of short-lived buildings in China's urban renewal : evidence from Chongqing

With the fast development of urban sprawl and renewal in China, many buildings are “non-nature” short-lived, i.e. demolished after only a few years. For this concern, this research explores the influencing factors of short-lived buildings and provides the scientific foundation for sustainable urban management and planning. Cases for this research are 1734 buildings demolished in Jiangbei district, the middle region of Chongqing City. Internal and external factors for the short-lived buildings are identified by applying logistic analysis. The results indicate that nine factors have significant influence on short-lived buildings. This research also find that buildings with low density, utilization and compensation while high land development potential are more likely to become short-lived buildings.

Cloud computing : what upstream oil and gas can learn from other industries

The topic of “the cloud” has attracted significant attention throughout the past few years (Cherry 2009; Sterling and Stark 2009) and, as a result, academics and trade journals have created several competing definitions of “cloud computing” (e.g., Motahari-Nezhad et al. 2009). Underpinning this article is the definition put forward by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology, which describes cloud computing as “a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction” (Garfinkel 2011, p. 3). Despite the lack of consensus about definitions, however, there is broad agreement on the growing demand for cloud computing. Some estimates suggest that spending on cloudrelated technologies and services in the next few years may climb as high as USD 42 billion/year (Buyya et al. 2009).

Taking cues from outer space : the E&P sector can learn much about asset maintenance from the space and satellite industry

The E&P sector can learn much about asset maintenance from the space and satellite industry. Practitioners from both the upstream oil and gas industry and the space and satellite sector have repeatedly noted several striking similarities between the two industries over the years, which have in turn resulted in many direct comparisons in the media and industry press. The similarities between the two industries have even resulted in a modest amount of cross-pollinating between the respective supply chains. Because the operating conditions of both industries are so extreme, some oil and gas equipment vendors have occasionally sourced motors and other parts from aerospace contractors. Also, satellites are now being used to assess oil fires, detect subsidence in oil fields, measure oil spills, collect and transmit operational data from oil and gas fields, and monitor the movement of icebergs that might potentially collide with offshore oil and gas installations.

Direct Detection of a Persistent Carbonyloxyl Radical in the Gas Phase

Long lived: Carbonyloxyl radicals (RCO2 .) are reactive intermediates that play key roles in initiating polymerization reactions. This reactivity also makes their direct observation difficult. For the first time a persistent organic RCO2 . radical is detected in the gas phase, its extraordinary longevity is attributed to the high barrier towards fragmentation owing to the endothermicity of the decarboxylation products. Grant Numbers ARC/DP0986738, ARC/DP120102922, ARC/DE120100467

Hydroxyl radical formation in the gas phase oxidation of distonic 2-methylphenyl radical cations

The reactions of distonic 4-(N, N, N-trimethylammonium)-2-methylphenyl and 5-(N, N, N-trimethylammonium)-2-methylphenyl radical cations (m/z 149) with O-2 are studied in the gas phase using ion-trap mass spectrometry. Photodissociation (PD) of halogenated precursors gives rise to the target distonic charge-tagged methylphenyl radical whereas collision-induced dissociation (CID) is found to produce unreactive radical ions. The PD generated distonic radicals, however, react rapidly with O-2 to form \[M + O2](center dot+) and \[M + O-2 - OH](center dot+) ions, detected at m/z 181 and m/z 164, respectively. Quantum chemical calculations using G3SX(MP3) and M06-2X theories are deployed to examine key decomposition pathways of the 5-(N, N, N-trimethylammonium)-2-methylphenylperoxyl radical and rationalise the observed product ions. The prevailing product mechanism involves a 1,5- H shift in the peroxyl radical forming a QOOH-type intermediate that subsequently eliminates (OH)-O-center dot to yield charge-tagged 2-quinone methide. Our study suggests that the analogous process should occur for the neutral methylphenyl + O-2 reaction, thus serving as a plausible source of (OH)-O-center dot radicals in combustion environments. Grants: ARC/DP0986738, ARC/DP130100862

Advanced arterial blood gas analysis in septic shock : a Singaporean nursing case review.

Introduction The admission to the Intensive Care Unit with a diagnosis of sepsis and/or septic shock is not uncommon. The aim of this article is to present a nursing case review of a patient admitted to the intensive care unit with a diagnosis of septic shock and the use of bedside acid–base formulae to inform clinical decision making. Method We chose to use a case review. This method is useful in reporting unusual or rare cases and is typically seen more in medicine than in nursing. Discussion The gentleman in question was a self-presentation with a short history of fever and worsening shortness of breath. His condition worsened where he required admission to the intensive care unit. The use of ‘advanced’ acid–base interpretation to guide his nursing care provided a platform from which to advance a deeper understanding of the intricacies the critically ill patient often presents. Conclusion The use of case review is enlightening in understanding the disease process and the decision-making that accompanies this. The lessons learnt are applicable to a wider nursing audience because understanding acid–base physiology is beneficial in supporting and advancing critical care nursing practice.

Characterising an ECG signal using statistical modelling : a feasibility study

For clinical use, in electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis it is important to detect not only the centre of the P wave, the QRS complex and the T wave, but also the time intervals, such as the ST segment. Much research focused entirely on qrs complex detection, via methods such as wavelet transforms, spline fitting and neural networks. However, drawbacks include the false classification of a severe noise spike as a QRS complex, possibly requiring manual editing, or the omission of information contained in other regions of the ECG signal. While some attempts were made to develop algorithms to detect additional signal characteristics, such as P and T waves, the reported success rates are subject to change from person-to-person and beat-to-beat. To address this variability we propose the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo statistical modelling to extract the key features of an ECG signal and we report on a feasibility study to investigate the utility of the approach. The modelling approach is examined with reference to a realistic computer generated ECG signal, where details such as wave morphology and noise levels are variable.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios