The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Bioequivalence of two tablet formulations of capecitabine and exploration of age, gender, body surface area, and creatinine clearance as factors influencing systemic exposure in cancer patients

Purpose: The objective of the study was to assess the bioequivalence of two tablet formulations of capecitabine and to explore the effect of age, gender, body surface area and creatinine clearance on the systemic exposure to capecitabine and its metabolites. Methods: The study was designed as an open, randomized two-way crossover trial. A single oral dose of 2000 mg capecitabine was administered on two separate days to 25 patients with solid tumors. On one day, the patients received four 500-mg tablets of formulation B (test formulation) and on the other day, four 500-mg tablets of formulation A (reference formulation). The washout period between the two administrations was between 2 and 8 days. After each administration, serial blood and urine samples were collected for up to 12 and 24 h, respectively. Unchanged capecitabine and its metabolites were determined in plasma using LC/MS-MS and in urine by NMRS. Results: Based on the primary pharmacokinetic parameter, AUC(0-∞) of 5'-DFUR, equivalence was concluded for the two formulations, since the 90% confidence interval of the estimate of formulation B relative to formulation A of 97% to 107% was within the acceptance region 80% to 125%. There was no clinically significant difference between the t(max) for the two formulations (median 2.1 versus 2.0 h). The estimate for C(max) was 111% for formulation B compared to formulation A and the 90% confidence interval of 95% to 136% was within the reference region 70% to 143%. Overall, these results suggest no relevant difference between the two formulations regarding the extent to which 5'-DFUR reached the systemic circulation and the rate at which 5'-DFUR appeared in the systemic circulation. The overall urinary excretions were 86.0% and 86.5% of the dose, respectively, and the proportion recovered as each metabolite was similar for the two formulations. The majority of the dose was excreted as FBAL (61.5% and 60.3%), all other chemical species making a minor contribution. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis to explore the influence of age, gender, body surface area and creatinine clearance on the log-transformed pharmacokinetic parameters AUC(0-∞) and C(max) of capecitabine and its metabolites revealed no clinically significant effects. The only statistically significant results were obtained for AUC(0-∞) and C(max) of intact drug and for C(max) of FBAL, which were higher in females than in males. Conclusion: The bioavailability of 5'-DFUR in the systemic circulation was practically identical after administration of the two tablet formulations. Therefore, the two formulations can be regarded as bioequivalent. The variables investigated (age, gender, body surface area, and creatinine clearance) had no clinically significant effect on the pharmacokinetics of capecitabine or its metabolites.

Children's exposure to domestic violence in Australia

Children's 'witnessing' or exposure to domestic violence has been increasingly recognised as a form of child abuse, both in Australia and internationally. Although it is difficult to accurately assess the scope of the problem, research has demonstrated that a substantial amount of domestic violence is witnessed by children. As this paper outlines, witnessing domestic violence can involve a range of incidents, ranging from the child 'only' hearing the violence, to the child being forced to participate in the violence or being used as part of a violent incident. In this paper, current knowledge about the extent of children's exposure to domestic violence in Australia is described, along with the documented impacts that this exposure can have on children. This includes psychological and behavioural impacts, health and socioeconomic impacts, and its link to the intergenerational transmission of violence and re-victimisation. Current legislative and policy initiatives are then described and some community-based programs that have been introduced in Australia to address the problem of children's exposure to domestic violence are highlighted. The paper concludes that initiatives focused on early intervention and holistic approaches to preventing and responding to children's exposure to domestic violence should be considered as part of strategies developed to address this problem.

School children’s personal exposure to ultrafine particles in the urban environment

There has been considerable scientific interest in personal exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP). In this study, the inhaled particle surface area doses and dose relative intensities in the tracheobronchial and alveolar regions of lungs were calculated using the measured 24-hour UFP time series of school children personal exposures for each recorded activity. Bayesian hierarchical modelling was used to determine mean doses and dose intensities for the various microenvironments. Analysis of measured personal exposures for 137 participating children from 25 schools in the Brisbane Metropolitan Area showed similar trends for all the participating children. Bayesian regression modelling was performed to calculate the daily proportion of children's total doses at different microenvironments. The proportion of alveolar doses in the total daily dose for \emph{home}, \emph{school}, \emph{commuting} and \emph{other} were 55.3\%, 35.3\%, 4.5\% and 5.0\%, respectively, with the \emph{home} microenvironment contributing a majority of children's total daily dose. Children's mean indoor dose was never higher than the outdoor's at any of the schools, indicating there were no persistent indoor particle sources in the classrooms during the measurements. Outdoor activities, eating/cooking at home and commuting were the three activities with the highest dose intensities. Personal exposure was more influenced by the ambient particle levels than immediate traffic.

Investigating the association between sun exposure and folate degradation in the human body

This thesis is the first study to investigate the associations between sun exposure and folate degradation in a group of childbearing age women in a high UV environment. It examined whether the degree of sun exposure experienced by women influenced blood folate levels following a period of folic acid supplementation and found a strong significant relationship between increased sun exposure and folate degradation. This relationship has strong implications for public health and the thesis has provided a foundation for further research in this area.

Work integrated learning: Exposure to professional practice : expectations and challenges

Prior to graduation engineering students are expected to provide evidence of relevant experience in the workplace. This experience is expected to provide opportunities for exposure to the profession and to help students develop confidence, skills and capabilities as emerging professionals. This investigation considers the expectations and challenges in implementing WIL programs in different contexts. While this will inform the next iteration of engineering course development at QUT the issues and interventions described provide useful insights into options available and engineering curriculum design more broadly. This comparative analysis across three phases highlights expectations and challenges including stakeholder responsibilities, expectations, and assessment. The study draws on the findings of a 2005 investigation into the purpose and provision of WIL and findings of a 2012 Faculty review of the current WIL model. The enhancement of WIL through a series of developmental phases highlights strengths and weaknesses of various models. It is anticipated that this investigation will inform course development decisions on a whole-of-course approach to WIL that improves student engagement and learning experience. The importance of WIL is not disputed. However with industry expectations, increasing student numbers and cohort diversity the ways in which students and industry currently engage in WIL are not sustainable and more creative, flexible and engaging approaches are needed.

Tissue viability imaging of skin microcirculation following exposure to whole body cryotherapy (-110°C) and cold water immersion (8°C)

Cryotherapy is currently used in various clinical, rehabilitative, and sporting settings. However, very little is known regarding the impact of cooling on the microcirculatory response. Objectives: The present study sought to examine the influence of two commonly employed modalities of cryotherapy, whole body cryotherapy (WBC; -110°C) and cold water immersion(CWI; 8±1°C), on skin microcirculation in the mid- thigh region. Methods: The skin area examined was a 3 × 3 cm located between the most anterior aspect of the inguinal fold and the patella. Following 10 minutes of rest, 5 healthy, active males were exposed to either WBC for 3 minutes or CWI for 5 minutes in a randomised order. Volunteers lay supine for five minutes after treatment, in order to monitor the variation of red blood cell (RBC) concentration in the region of interest for a duration of 40 minutes. Microcirculation response was assessed using a non-invasive, portable instrument known as a Tissue Viability imaging system. After a minimum of seven days, the protocol was repeated. Subjective assessment of the volunteer’s thermal comfort and thermal sensation was also recorded. Results: RBC was altered following exposure to both WBC and CWI but appeared to stabilise approximately 35 minutes after treatments. Both WBC and CWI affected thermal sensation (p < 0.05); however no betweengroup differences in thermal comfort or sensation were recorded (p > 0.05). Conclusions: As both WBC and CWI altered RBC, further study is necessary to examine the mechanism for this alteration during whole body cooling.

A methodology for estimating exposure-controlled crash risk using traffic Police crash data

Exposure control or case-control methodologies are common techniques for estimating crash risks, however they require either observational data on control cases or exogenous exposure data, such as vehicle-kilometres travelled. This study proposes an alternative methodology for estimating crash risk of road user groups, whilst controlling for exposure under a variety of roadway, traffic and environmental factors by using readily available police-reported crash data. In particular, the proposed method employs a combination of a log-linear model and quasi-induced exposure technique to identify significant interactions among a range of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions to estimate associated crash risks. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a set of police-reported crash data from January 2004 to June 2009 on roadways in Queensland, Australia. Exposure-controlled crash risks of motorcyclists—involved in multi-vehicle crashes at intersections—were estimated under various combinations of variables like posted speed limit, intersection control type, intersection configuration, and lighting condition. Results show that the crash risk of motorcycles at three-legged intersections is high if the posted speed limits along the approaches are greater than 60 km/h. The crash risk at three-legged intersections is also high when they are unsignalized. Dark lighting conditions appear to increase the crash risk of motorcycles at signalized intersections, but the problem of night time conspicuity of motorcyclists at intersections is lessened on approaches with lower speed limits. This study demonstrates that this combined methodology is a promising tool for gaining new insights into the crash risks of road user groups, and is transferrable to other road users.

Maternal exposure to heatwave and preterm birth in Brisbane, Australia

Objective To quantify the short-term effects of maternal exposure to heatwave on preterm birth. Design An ecological study. Setting: A population-based study in Brisbane, Australia. Population All pregnant women who had a spontaneous singleton live birth in Brisbane between November and March in 2000–2010 were studied. Methods Daily data on pregnancy outcomes, meteorological factors, and ambient air pollutants were obtained. The Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent variables was used to examine the short-term impact of heatwave on preterm birth. A series of cut-off temperatures and durations were used to define heatwave. Multivariable analyses were also performed to adjust for socio-economic factors, demographic factors, meteorological factors, and ambient air pollutants. Main outcome measure Spontaneous preterm births. Results The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) ranged from 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.24) to 2.00 (95% CI 1.37–2.91) by using different heatwave definitions, after controlling for demographic, socio-economic, and meteorological factors, and air pollutants. Conclusions Heatwave was significantly associated with preterm birth: the associations were robust to the definitions of heatwave. The threshold temperatures, instead of duration, could be more likely to influence the evaluation of birth-related heatwaves. The findings of this study may have significant public health implications as climate change progresses.

Compliance with standard precautions and occupational exposure reporting among operating room nurses in Australia

Occupational exposures of healthcare workers tend to occur because of inconsistent compliance with standard precautions. Also, incidence of occupational exposure is underreported among operating room personnel. The purpose of this project was to develop national estimates for compliance with standard precautions and occupational exposure reporting practices among operating room nurses in Australia. Data was obtained utilizing a 96-item self-report survey. The Standard Precautions and Occupational Exposure Reporting survey was distributed anonymously to 500 members of the Australian College of Operating Room Nurses. The Health Belief Model was the theoretical framework used to guide the analysis of data. Data was analysed to examine relationships between specific constructs of the Health Belief Model to identify factors that might influence the operating room nurse to undertake particular health behaviours to comply with standard precautions and occupational exposure reporting. Results of the study revealed compliance rates of 55.6% with double gloving, 59.1% with announcing sharps transfers, 71.9% with using a hands-free sharps pass technique, 81.9% with no needle recapping and 92.0% with adequate eye protection. Although 31.6% of respondents indicated receiving an occupational exposure in the past 12 months, only 82.6% of them reported their exposures. The results of this study provide national estimates of compliance with standard precautions and occupational exposure reporting among operating room nurses in Australia. These estimates can now be used as support for the development and implementation of measures to improve practices in order to reduce occupational exposures and, ultimately, disease transmission rates among this high-risk group.

Perceptions that influence occupational exposure reporting

Statistics on health care workers' occupational exposures to bloodborne pathogens underestimate the true extent of the problem because of a tendency for underreporting. A descriptive correlational design was used to investigate compliance with standard precautions and occupational exposure reporting practices among perioperative nurses in Australia. The study found that although intention to report both percutaneous and mucocutaneous exposures was relatively high, mean compliance rates for actually reporting exposures incurred were considerably lower. The perception of barriers to reporting significantly influenced compliance.

The effect of three different (-135°C) whole body cryotherapy exposure durations on elite rugby league players

Background: Whole body cryotherapy (WBC) is the therapeutic application of extreme cold air for a short duration. Minimal evidence is available for determining optimal exposure time. Purpose: To explore whether the length of WBC exposure induces differential changes in inflammatory markers, tissue oxygenation, skin and core temperature, thermal sensation and comfort. Method: This study was a randomised cross over design with participants acting as their own control. Fourteen male professional first team super league rugby players were exposed to 1, 2, and 3 minutes of WBC at -135°C. Testing took place the day after a competitive league fixture, each exposure separated by seven days. Results: No significant changes were found in the inflammatory cytokine interleukin six. Significant reductions (p<0.05) in deoxyhaemoglobin for gastrocnemius and vastus lateralis were found. In vastus lateralis significant reductions (p<0.05) in oxyhaemoglobin and tissue oxygenation index (p<0.05) were demonstrated. Significant reductions (p<0.05) in skin temperature were recorded. No significant changes were recorded in core temperature. Significant reductions (p<0.05) in thermal sensation and comfort were recorded. Conclusion: Three brief exposures to WBC separated by 1 week are not sufficient to induce physiological changes in IL-6 or core temperature. There are however significant changes in tissue oxyhaemoglobin, deoxyhaemoglobin, tissue oxygenation index, skin temperature and thermal sensation. We conclude that a 2 minute WBC exposure was the optimum exposure length at temperatures of -135°C and could be applied as the basis for future studies.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices to reduce exposure among residents living near Danang dioxin hot spot : 2.5 years after a preventative intervention

Da Nang Airbase in Viet Nam served as a bulk storage and supply facility for Agent Orange and other herbicides during Operation Ranch Hand 1961-1971[1]. Studies have shown that environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase site have elevated levels of dioxin [1-3]. Residents living in the vicinity of the airbase are at risk of exposure to dioxin in soil, water and mud and particularly through the consumption of local contaminated food. In 2009, a pre-intervention cross sectional survey was undertaken. This survey examined the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of householders living near Da Nang Airbase, relevent to reducing dioxin exposure through contaminated food. The results showed that despite living near a severe dioxin hot spot, the residents had very limited knowledge of both exposure risk and measures to reduce exposure to dioxin[4]. In response, the Vietnam Public Health Association (VPHA) and Da Nang Public Health Association implemented a risk reduction program at four residential wards in the vicinities of the Da Nang Airbase in 2010. A post intervention KAP survey was under taken in 2011, and the results showed that knowledge of the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high risk foods, and preventive measures was significantly enhanced. This new study monitored KAP 2.5 years after the intervention through a 2013 survey of food handlers from 400 households that were randomly selected from the four intervention wards. The results show that most of the positive outcomes remained stable or had increased; some KAP indicators decreased compared to those in the post-intervention survey, but were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels. In 2014, these findings will be incorporated with qualitative assessments and the results of laboratory analysis of dioxin concentrations in foods in Da Nang and Bien Hoa dioxin hot spots to comprehensively assess the sustained effects of the intervention.

Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation is associated with a decreased folate status in women of childbearing age

In vitro studies indicate that folate in collected human blood is vulnerable to degradation after exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. This has raised concerns about folate depletion in individuals with high sun exposure. Here, we investigate the association between personal solar UV radiation exposure and serum folate concentration, using a three-week prospective study that was undertaken in females aged 18–47 years in Brisbane, Australia (153 E, 27 S). Following two weeks of supplementation with 500 μg of folic acid daily, the change in serum folate status was assessed over a 7-day period of measured personal sun exposure. Compared to participants with personal UV exposures of <200 Joules per day, participants with personal UV exposures of 200–599 and >600 Joules per day had significantly higher depletion of serum folate (p = 0.015). Multivariable analysis revealed personal UV exposure as the strongest predictor accounting for 20% of the overall change in serum folate (Standardised B = −0.49; t = −3.75; p = <0.01). These data show that increasing solar UV radiation exposures reduces the effectiveness of folic acid supplementation. The consequences of this association may be most pronounced for vulnerable individuals, such as women who are pregnant or of childbearing age with high sun exposures.