Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Namoi : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Namoi River winds its way through 42 000 square kilometres of blacksoil plain in the north east of New South Wales. Fed by the rivers of the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, it contributes about one quarter of the Darling River’s flow. The river, its floodplain, wetlands, swamps and waterholes, are the traditional lands of the Gamilaraay* people. The Namoi is a very different river to the one the Gamilaraay people once knew and fished...

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

New suburbs in the making? Locating master planned estates in a comparative analysis of suburbs in South-East Queensland

In urban scholarship Master Planned Estates (MPEs) are viewed as illustrative of broader changes to the urban environment and characterised as homogenous, affluent enclaves where community life is largely orchestrated by the developer. Yet no study has fully considered if, and to what extent, MPEs can be distinguished from other suburb types in terms of their residential composition and their levels of sociability and community attachment. In this article, we empirically test if MPEs are different from ‘conventional’ suburbs by examining them structurally in terms of their demographic and socio-economic characteristics, as well as in terms of their key community social processes. Using data from a 2008 study of 148 suburbs across Brisbane, Australia (which includes data from two MPEs), we undertake a comparative analysis of suburbs and examine the density of neighbour networks, residents' reports of place attachment and cohesion and neighbourly contact in MPEs compared to other residential suburbs. Our findings suggest that MPEs are not distinct in terms of their degree of homogeneity and socio-economic characteristics, but that connections among residents are lower than other suburbs despite—or perhaps because of—the active interventions of the developer.

SettleMEN : health and settlement among men from refugee backgrounds living in South East Queensland

Between 2008 and 2010, the SettleMEN study followed a cohort of 233 recently arrived men from refugee backgrounds living in urban and regional areas of South East Queensland with the aim of documenting their health and settlement experiences. This report presents the key findings of the study.

Medieval knights amid the gum-trees : the experience of European heritage tourism in south-east Queensland, Australia

This paper is interested in the way in which the heritage of another place, time, and culture is repurposed for popular consumption in an experience economy, as well as the way in which the visitors experience their own past and the past of others. We trace the processes of engagement, education and nostalgia that occur when the European heritage is presented in a postcolonial context and an Australian environment. The information presented includes the results of qualitative and quantitative research conducted at the Abbey Museum over the December-Jan. period of 2012-13.

A new dasyurid marsupial from Kroombit Tops, south-east Queensland, Australia : the Silver-headed Antechinus, Antechinus argentus sp. nov. (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae)

Antechinus argentus sp. nov. is currently only known from the plateau at the eastern escarpment of Kroombit Tops National Park, about 400km NNW of Brisbane and 60km SSW of Gladstone, south-east Queensland, Australia. Antechinus flavipes (Waterhouse) is also known from Kroombit Tops NP, 4.5km W of the nearest known population of A. argentus; A. mysticus Baker, Mutton and Van Dyck has yet to be found within Kroombit Tops, but is known from museum specimens taken at Bulburin NP, just 40km ESE, as well as extant populations about 400km to both the south-east and north-west of Kroombit NP. A. argentus can be easily distinguished in the field, having an overall silvery/grey appearance with much paler silver feet and drabber deep greyish-olive rump than A. flavipes, which has distinctive yellow-orange toned feet, rump and tail-base; A. argentus fur is also less coarse than that of A. flavipes. A. argentus has a striking silver-grey head, neck and shoulders, with pale, slightly broken eye-rings, which distinguish it from A. mysticus which has a more subtle greyish-brown head, pale buff dabs of eyeliner and more colourful brownish-yellow rump. Features of the dentary can also be used for identification: A. argentus differs from A. flavipes in having smaller molar teeth, as well as a narrower and smaller skull and from A. mysticus in having on average a narrower snout, smaller skull and dentary lengths and smaller posterior palatal vacuities in the skull. A. argentus is strongly divergent genetically (at mtDNA) from both A. flavipes (9.0–11.2%) and A. mysticus (7.2–7.5%), and forms a very strongly supported clade to the exclusion of all other antechinus species, in both mtDNA and combined (mtDNA and nDNA) phylogenies inferred here. We are yet to make detailed surveys in search of A. argentus from forested areas to the immediate east and north of Kroombit Tops. However, A. mysticus has only been found at these sites in low densities in decades past and not at all in several recent trapping expeditions conducted by the authors. With similar habitat types in close geographic proximity, it is plausible that A. argentus may be found outside Kroombit. Nevertheless, it is striking that from a range of surveys conducted at Kroombit Tops in the last 15 years and intensive surveys by the authors in the last 3 years, totalling more than 5 080 trap nights, just 13 A. argentus have been captured from two sites less than 6 km apart. If this is even close to the true geographic extent of the species, it would possess one of the smallest distributions of an Australian mammal species. With several threats identified, we tentatively recommend that A. argentus be listed as Endangered, pending an exhaustive trapping survey of Kroombit and surrounds.

Assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in samples collected from indoor environments in South East Queensland, Australia

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are compounds that are used as flame retardants. Human exposure is suggested to be via food, dust and air. An assessment of PBDE exposure via indoor environments using samples of air, dust and surface wipes from eight sites in South East Queensland, Australia was conducted. For indoor air, ΣPBDEs ranged from 0.5 -179 pg/m3 for homes and 15 - 487 pg/m3 for offices. In dust, ΣPBDEs ranged from 87 - 733 ng/g dust and 583 - 3070 ng/g dust in homes and offices, respectively. PBDEs were detected on 9 out of 10 surfaces sampled and ranged from non-detectable to 5985 pg/cm2. Overall, the congener profiles for air and dust were dominated by BDE-209. This study demonstrated that PBDEs are ubiquitous in the indoor environments of selected buildings in South East Queensland and suggest the need for detailed assessment of PBDE concentrations using more sites to further investigate the factors influencing PBDE exposure in Australia.

Impacts of climatic factors on evolution of molecular diversity and the natural distribution of wild stocks of the giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii)

Natural distributions of most freshwater taxa are restricted geographically, a pattern that reflects dispersal limitation. Macrobrachium rosenbergii is unusual because it occurs naturally in rivers from near Pakistan in the west, across India and Bangladesh to the Malay Peninsula, and across the Sunda Shelf and Indonesian archipelago to western Java. Individuals cannot tolerate full marine conditions, so dispersal between river drainage basins must occur at limited geographical scales when ecological or climatic factors are favorable. We examined molecular diversity in wild populations of M. rosenbergii across its complete natural range to document patterns of diversity and to relate them to factors that have driven evolution of diversity in this species. We found 3 clades in the mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) data set that corresponded geographically with eastern, central, and western sets of haplotypes that last shared a common ancestor 1 × 106 y ago. The eastern clade was closest to the common ancestor of all 3 clades and to the common ancestor with its congener, Macrobrachium spinipes, distributed east of Huxley's Line. Macrobrachium rosenbergii could have evolved in the western Indonesian archipelago and spread westward during the early to mid-Pleistocene to India and Sri Lanka. Additional groups identified in the nuclear DNA data set in the central and western clades probably indicate secondary contact via dispersal between regions and modern introductions that have mixed nuclear and mtDNA genes. Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations can explain dispersal across the Indonesian archipelago and parts of mainland southeastern Asia via changing river drainage connections in shallow seas on wide continental shelves. At the western end of the modern distribution where continental shelves are smaller, intermittent freshwater plumes from large rivers probably permitted larval dispersal across inshore areas of lowered salinity.

Case study : South East Busway (SEB), Brisbane, Australia

The South East Busway (SEB) of Brisbane’s busway network is one of the main facilities which provide access to commuters from South East (SE) Brisbane. SEB gives better satisfaction for passengers as far as reliability is considered. The operation procedure of SEB is complex due to its stations, ramps/intersections, bus equipment characteristics, bus service patterns and fare collection method. However, a comprehensive document of SEB is scarce as far as its overall performance is concerned. Therefore this report demonstrates a comprehensive and very strong appreciation of the overall operational processes of the world’s most sophisticated busway.

Ethnic enclave lifecycle : a case study of Chinese restaurants in south east Queensland

Immigrant entrepreneurs tend to start businesses within their ethnic enclave (EE), as it is an integral part of their social and cultural context and the location where ethnic resources reside (Logan, Alba, & Stults, 2003). Ethnic enclaves can be seen as a form of geographic cluster, China Towns are exemplar EEs, easily identified by the clustering of Chinese restaurants and other ethnic businesses in one central location. Studies on EE thus far have neglected the life cycles stages of EE and its impact on the business experiences of the entrepreneurs. In this paper, we track the formation, growth and decline of a EE. We argue that EE is a special industrial cluster and as such it follows the growth conditions proposed by the cluster life cycle theory (Menzel & Fornahl, 2009). We report a mixed method study of Chinese Restaurants in South East Queensland. Based on multiple sources of data, we concluded that changes in government policies leading to a sharp increase of immigrant numbers from a distinctive culture group can lead to the initiation and growth of the EE. Continuous incoming of new immigrants and increase competition within the cluster mark the mature stage of the EE, making the growth condition more favourable “inside” the cluster. A decline in new immigrants from the same ethnic group and the increased competition within the EE may eventually lead to the decline of such an industrial cluster, thus providing more favorable condition for growth of business outside the cluster.

An assessment of the geographical scale of recurrent gene flow in wild populations of two species of Mekong River carps (Henicorhynchus spp.)

The Mekong is the most productive river fishery in the world, and such as, the Mekong River Basin (MRB) is very important to very large human populations across the region as a source of revenue (through fishing and marketing of aquatic resources products) and as the major source for local animal protein. Threats to biodiversity in the MRB, either to the fishery sector itself or to other sectors are a major concern, even though currently, fisheries across this region are still very productive. If not managed properly however, fish population declines will cause significant economic impact and affect livelihoods of local people and will have a major impact on food security and nutrition. Biodiversity declines will undoubtedly affect food security, income and socio-economic status of people in the MRB that depend on aquatic resources. This is an indicator of unsustainable development and hence should be avoided. Genetic diversity (biodiversity) that can be measured using techniques based on DNA markers; refers to variation within and among populations within the same species or reproductive units. In a population, new genetic variation is generated by sexual recombination contributed by individuals with mutations in genes and chromosomes. Over time, populations of a species that are not reproducing together will diverge as differential impacts of selection and genetic drift change their genetic attributes. For mud carp (Henicorhynchus spp.), understanding the status of breeding units in the MRB will be important for their long term persistence, sustainability and for implementing effective management strategies. Earlier analysis of stock structure in two economically important mud carp species (Henicorhynchus siamensis and H. lobatus) in the MRB completed with mtDNA markers identified a number of populations of both species where gene flow had apparently been interrupted or reduced but applying these data directly to management unit identification is potentially compromised because information was only available about female dispersal patterns. The current study aimed to address this problem and to fully assess the extent of current gene flow (nDNA) and reproductive exchange among selected wild populations of two species of carp (Henicorhynchus spp.) of high economic importance in the MRB using combined mtDNA and nDNA markers. In combination, the data can be used to define effective management units for each species. In general, nDNA diversity for H. lobatus (with average allelic richness (A) 7.56 and average heterozygosity (Ho) 0.61) was very similar to that identified for H. siamensis (A = 6.81 and Ho = 0.75). Both mud carp species show significant but low FST estimates among populations as a result of lower genetic diversity among sampled populations compared with genetic diversity within populations that may potentially mask any 'real' population structure. Overall, population genetic structure patterns from mtDNA and nDNA in both Henicorhynchus species were largely congruent. Different population structures however, were identified for the two Henicorhynchus species across the same geographical area. Apparent co-similarity in morphology and co-distribution of these two relatively closely related species does not apparently imply parallel evolutionary histories. Differences in each species population structure likely reflect historical drainage rearrangement of the Mekong River. The data indicate that H. siamensis is likely to have occupied the Mekong system for much longer than has H. lobatus in the past. Two divergent stocks were identified for H. lobatus in the MRB below the Khone Falls while a single stock had been evident in the earlier mtDNA study. This suggests that the two Henicorhynchus species may possess different life history traits and that different patterns of gene flow has likely influenced modern genetic structure in these close congeners. In combination, results of the earlier mtDNA and the current study have implications for effective management of both Henicorhynchus species across the MRB. Currently, both species are essentially treated as a single management unit in this region. This strategy may be appropriate for H. lobatus as a single stock was evident in the main stream of the MRB, but may not be appropriate for H. siamensis as more than a single stock was identified across the same range for this species. Management strategies should consider this difference to conserve overall biodiversity (local discrete populations) and this will include maintaining natural habitat and migration pathways, provision of fish sanctuaries (refuges) and may also require close monitoring of any stock declines, a signal that may require effective recovery strategies.

Terrestrial invertebrates of dry river beds are not simply subsets of riparian assemblages

Dry river beds are common worldwide and are rapidly increasing in extent due to the effects of water management and prolonged drought periods due to climate change. While attention has been given to the responses of aquatic invertebrates to drying rivers, few studies exist on the terrestrial invertebrates colonizing dry river beds. Dry river beds are physically harsh and they often differ substantially in substrate, topography, microclimate and inundation frequency from adjacent riparian zones. Given these differences, we predicted that dry river beds provide a unique habitat for terrestrial invertebrates, and that their assemblage composition differs from that in adjacent riparian zones. Dry river beds and riparian zones in Australia and Italy were sampled for terrestrial invertebrates with pitfall traps. Sites differed in substrate type, climate and flow regime. Dry river beds contained diverse invertebrate assemblages and their composition was consistently different from adjacent riparian zones, irrespective of substrate, climate or hydrology. Although some taxa were shared between dry river beds and riparian zones, 66 of 320 taxa occurred only in dry river beds. Differences were due to species turnover, rather than shifts in abundance, indicating that dry river bed assemblages are not simply subsets of riparian assemblages. Some spatial patterns in invertebrate assemblages were associated with environmental variables (irrespective of habitat type), but these associations were statistically weak. We suggest that dry river beds are unique habitats in their own right. We discuss potential human stressors and management issues regarding dry river beds and provide recommendations for future research.

Identifying the spatial scale of land use that most strongly influences overall river ecosystem health score

Catchment and riparian degradation has resulted in declining ecosystem health of streams worldwide. With restoration a priority in many regions, there is an increasing interest in the scale at which land use influences stream ecosystem health. Our goal was to use a substantial data set collected as part of a monitoring program (the Southeast Queensland, Australia, Ecological Health Monitoring Program data set, collected at 116 sites over six years) to identify the spatial scale of land use, or the combination of spatial scales, that most strongly influences overall ecosystem health. In addition, we aimed to determine whether the most influential scale differed for different aspects of ecosystem health. We used linear-mixed models and a Bayesian model-averaging approach to generate models for the overall aggregated ecosystem health score and for each of the five component indicators (fish, macroinvertebrates, water quality, nutrients, and ecosystem processes) that make up the score. Dense forest close to the survey site, mid-dense forest in the hydrologically active nearstream areas of the catchment, urbanization in the riparian buffer, and tree cover at the reach scale were all significant in explaining ecosystem health, suggesting an overriding influence of forest cover, particularly close to the stream. Season and antecedent rainfall were also important explanatory variables, with some land-use variables showing significant seasonal interactions. There were also differential influences of land use for each of the component indicators. Our approach is useful given that restoring general ecosystem health is the focus of many stream restoration projects; it allowed us to predict the scale and catchment position of restoration that would result in the greatest improvement of ecosystem health in the regions streams and rivers. The models we generated suggested that good ecosystem health can be maintained in catchments where 80% of hydrologically active areas in close proximity to the stream have mid-dense forest cover and moderate health can be obtained with 60% cover.

Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).