A 'conceptual models' approach to organisational resilience

Gibson and Tarrant discuss the range of inter-dependant factors needed to manage organisational resilience. Over the last few years there has been considerable interest in the idea of resilience across all areas of society. Like any new area or field this has produced a vast array of definitions, processes, management systems and measurement tools which together have clouded the concept of resilience. Many of us have forgotten that ultimately resilience is not just about ‘bouncing back from adversity’ but is more broadly concerned with adaptive capacity and how we better understand and address uncertainty in our internal and external environments. The basis of organisational resilience is a fundamental understanding and treatment of risk, particularly non-routine or disruption related risk. This paper presents a number of conceptual models of organisational resilience that we have developed to demonstrate the range of inter-dependant factors that need to be considered in the management of such risk. These conceptual models illustrate that effective resilience is built upon a range of different strategies that enhance both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ organisational capabilities . They emphasise the concept that there is no quick fix, no single process, management system or software application that will create resilience.

The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

A comparative review of quantitative VFM methodology for PPP infrastructure project in Indonesia and Australia

The Government of Indonesia (GoI) increasingly relies on the private sector financing to build and operate infrastructures through public private partnership (PPP) schemes. However, PPP does not automatically provide the solution for the financing scheme due to value for money (VFM) issues. The procurement authority must show whether a PPP proposal is the optimal solution that provides best VFM outcome. The paper presents a literature review of comparing quantitative VFM methodology for PPP infrastructure project procurement in Indonesia and Australia. Public Sector Comparator (PSC) is used to assess the potential project VFM quantitatively in Australia. In Indonesia, the PSC has not been applied, where the PPP procurement authority tends to utilize a common project evaluation method that ignores the issues of risk. Unlike the conventional price bid evaluation, the PSC enables a financial comparison including costs/gains and risks. Since the construction of PSC is primarily on risk management approach, it can facilitate risk negotiation processes between the involved parties. The study indicates that the quantitative VFM methodology of PSC is potentially applicable in Indonesia for water supply sector. Various supporting regulations are available that emphasize the importance of VFM and risk management in infrastructure investment. However, the study also reveals a number of challenges that need to be anticipated, such as the need of a more comprehensive PPP policy at both central and local government level, a more specific legal instrument for bidding evaluation method and the issue of institutional capacity development in PPP Units at the local level.

Should funds invest in socially responsible investments during downturns?

Purpose: This paper investigates whether Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) is less sensitive to market downturns than conventional investments; the legal implications for fund managers and trustees; and possible legislative reforms to allow conventional funds more scope to invest in SRI. ----- ----- Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses the market model to estimate betas over the past 15 years for SRI funds and conventional investment funds during economic downturns, as distinct from during more ‘normal’ (non-recessionary) economic times. ----- ----- Findings: The beta risk of SRI, both in Australia and internationally, increases more than that of conventional investment during economic downturns. Traditional fund managers and trustees in Australia are therefore likely to breach their fiduciary duties if they go long - or remain long - in SRI funds during economic downturns, unless relevant legislation is reformed. ----- ----- Research limitations/implications: The methodology assumes that alpha and beta in the market model are constant. This is the subject of ongoing research. Second, it categorises the state of the market into ‘normal’ economic conditions and downturns using dummy variables. More sophisticated techniques could be used in future research. ----- ----- Practical implications: The current law would prevent conventional funds from investing in SRI. If SRI is viewed as socially desirable, useful legislative reforms could include explicitly overriding the common law to allow conventional funds to invest in SRI; introducing a 150% tax deduction or investment allowance for SRI; and allowing SRI sub-funds to obtain Deductible Gift Recipient status from the Australian Tax Office and other taxation authorities. ----- ----- Originality/value: The accurate assessment of risk in SRIs is an area which, despite its serious legal implications, is yet to be subjected to rigorous empirical investigation. Keywords - SRI, market model, GARCH, trust fund, fiduciary duties, market downturns, Australia.

A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Crisis preparedness of construction companies

In high-risk industries, companies with well-conceived crisis management plans are at a commercial advantage. While there is some understanding of the risk management practices of construction companies, there is little insight into their crisis preparedness. This paper presents the findings of exploratory research that investigated this issue. Using a diagnostic model of crisis preparedness that has been developed and tested across a broad range of industries, it concludes that if the sample surveyed is typical, then corporate philosophies in construction companies do not support crisis management activities. Furthermore, crisis planning is rudimentary and undertaken in an insular, informal, fragmented fashion, supported by few resources and little strategic guidance. Consequently, many construction companies will have an inadequate understanding of their crisis exposure, of how to cope with crises when they happen, and of how to learn and recover from their aftermath.

Ethical review in creative industries and other practice-based research

The processes used in Australian universities for reviewing the ethics of research projects are based on the traditions of research and practice from the medical and health sciences. The national guidelines for ethical conduct in research are heavily based on presumptions that the researcher–participant relationship is similar to a doctor–patient relationship. The National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council and Australian Vice-Chancellors’ Committee have made a laudable effort to fix this problem by releasing the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research in 2007, to replace the 1999 National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Research Involving Humans. The new statement better encompasses the needs of the humanities, social sciences and creative industries. However, this paper argues that the revised National Statement and ethical review processes within universities still do not fully encompass the definitions of ‘research’ and the requirements, traditions, codes of practice and standards of the humanities, social sciences and creative industries. The paper argues that scholars within these disciplines often lack the language to articulate their modes of practice and risk management strategies to university-level ethics committees. As a consequence, scholars from these disciplines may find their research is delayed or stymied. The paper focuses on creative industries researchers, and explores the issues that they face in managing the ethical review process, particularly when engaging in practice-based research. Although the focus is on the creative industries, the issues are relevant to most fields in the humanities and social sciences.

Towards testing a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). As background to this challenge, a brief review is given of current practice in the selection of major public sector infrastructure in Australia, along with a review of the related literature concerning the Multi-Attribute Utility Approach (MAUA) and the effect of MAUA on the role of risk management in procurement selection. To contribute towards addressing the key weaknesses of MAUA, a new first-order procurement decision making model is mentioned. A brief summary is also given of the research method and hypothesis used to test and develop the new procurement model and which uses competition as the dependent variable and as a proxy for VfM. The hypothesis is given as follows: When the actual procurement mode matches the theoretical/predicted procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match optimum competition (based on actual prevailing capacity vis-à-vis the theoretical/predicted procurement mode) and subject to efficient tendering. The aim of this paper is to report on progress towards testing this hypothesis in terms of an analysis of two of the four data components in the hypothesis. That is, actual procurement and actual competition across 87 road and health major public sector projects in Australia. In conclusion, it is noted that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seen a significant increase in competition in public sector major road and health infrastructure and if any imperfections in procurement and/or tendering are discernible, then this would create the opportunity, through the deployment of economic principles embedded in the new procurement model and/or adjustments in tendering, to maintain some of this higher level post-GFC competition throughout the next business cycle/upturn in demand including private sector demand. Finally, the paper previews the next steps in the research with regard to collection and analysis of data concerning theoretical/predicted procurement and optimum competition.

Editorial : advancing innovation in accounting research

We live in uncertain times. The sub-prime crisis that commenced in the U.S. in 2007, the global economic crisis that followed, and the recent sovereign debt crisis in various European countries have led to ongoing instability in global financial markets that continues to receive daily media attention. These uncertain times create enormous opportunities for researchers across many disciplines to research capital markets and business practices. From an accounting perspective, accounting regulators have been active in developing new standards to address risk management issues arising from the crises and have continued to develop and refine financial reporting standards. With the adoption of, or transition to international financial reporting standards (IFRS) in many countries, the globalisation of financial reporting standards is close to becoming a reality. However, doubts still remain about whether the IFRS will lead to any real long-term improvement in financial reporting and transparency (see Sunder, 2011)...

Effective health communication in the mining industry

Historically, occupational health and safety has primarily presented as attempts to create a safer work environment for employees. The mining industry carries health and safety risks, often greater than other occupations. Whilst the mining industry is regulated by stringent workplace health and safety regulations, the very nature of the work and environmental influences expose employees to a greater number of injury risk factors than many other industries. The application of risk management techniques has resulted in a substantial decline in injury rates observed for mining operations in developed countries (Donoghue, 2004). This essential focus can be complemented by a more comprehensive approach to occupational health and safety that also supports the design and delivery of proactive health promotion programs...