585 resultados para Deterministic Trend
Resumo:
If current population and accommodation trends continue, Australian cities will, in the future, have noticeable numbers of apartment buildings over 60 storeys high. With an aging population it follows that a significant proportion of those occupying these buildings will be senior citizens, many of whom will have some form of disability. For these occupants a fire emergency in a high rise building presents a serious problem. Currently lifts cannot be used for evacuation and going down 60 storeys in a fire isolated staircase would be physically impossible for many. Therefore, for many, the temptation to remain in one’s unit will be very strong. With an awareness of this behaviour trend in older residents, many researchers have, in recent years, explored the possible wider use of lifts in a fire emergency. So far the use of lifts for evacuation has been approved for a small number of buildings but wide acceptance of this solution is still to be achieved. This paper concludes that even in high-rise apartment buildings where lifts are approved for evacuation, architects should design the building with alternative evacuation routes and provide suitable safe refuge areas for those who cannot use the stairs when the lifts are unavailable.
Resumo:
The study objective was to determine whether the ‘cardiac decompensation score’ could identify cardiac decompensation in a patient with existing cardiac compromise managed with intraaortic balloon counterpulsation (IABP). A one-group, posttest-only design was utilised to collect observations in 2003 from IABP recipients treated in the intensive care unit of a 450 bed Australian, government funded, public, cardiothoracic, tertiary referral hospital. Twenty-three consecutive IABP recipients were enrolled, four of whom died in ICU (17.4%). All non-survivors exhibited primarily rising scores over the observation period (p < 0.001) and had final scores of 25 or higher. In contrast, the maximum score obtained by a survivor at any time was 15. Regardless of survival, scores for the 23 participants were generally decreasing immediately following therapy escalation (p = 0.016). Further reflecting these changes in patient support, there was also a trend for scores to move from rising to falling at such treatment escalations (p = 0.024). This pilot study indicates the ‘cardiac decompensation score’ to accurately represent changes in heart function specific to an individual patient. Use of the score in conjunction with IABP may lead to earlier identification of changes occurring in a patient's cardiac function and thus facilitate improved IABP outcomes.
Resumo:
Objective: The aim of this literature review is to identify the role of probiotics in the management of enteral tube feeding (ETF) diarrhoea in critically ill patients.---------- Background: Diarrhoea is a common gastrointestinal problem seen in ETF patients. The incidence of diarrhoea in tube fed patients varies from 2% to 68% across all patients. Despite extensive investigation, the pathogenesis surrounding ETF diarrhoea remains unclear. Evidence to support probiotics to manage ETF diarrhoea in critically ill patients remains sparse.---------- Method: Literature on ETF diarrhoea and probiotics in critically ill, adult patients was reviewed from 1980 to 2010. The Cochrane Library, Pubmed, Science Direct, Medline and the Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) electronic databases were searched using specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. Key search terms used were: enteral nutrition, diarrhoea, critical illness, probiotics, probiotic species and randomised clinical control trial (RCT).---------- Results: Four RCT papers were identified with two reporting full studies, one reporting a pilot RCT and one conference abstract reporting an RCT pilot study. A trend towards a reduction in diarrhoea incidence was observed in the probiotic groups. However, mortality associated with probiotic use in some severely and critically ill patients must caution the clinician against its use.---------- Conclusion: Evidence to support probiotic use in the management of ETF diarrhoea in critically ill patients remains unclear. This paper argues that probiotics should not be administered to critically ill patients until further research has been conducted to examine the causal relationship between probiotics and mortality, irrespective of the patient's disease state or projected prophylactic benefit of probiotic administration.
Resumo:
In a competitive environment, companies continuously innovate to offer superior services at lower costs. ‘Shared Services’ have been extensively adopted in practice as a means for improving organizational performance. Shared Services are considered most appropriate for support functions and are widely adopted in human resource management, finance and accounting, and more recently employed as an information systems (IS) function. As computer-based corporate information systems have become de facto and the backbone of administrative systems, the technical impediments to sharing have come down dramatically. As this trend continues, CIOs and IT professionals need a deeper understanding of the Shared Services phenomenon. Yet, analysis of IS academic literature reveals that Shared Services, though mentioned in more than 100 articles, has received little in depth attention. This paper investigates the current status of Shared Services in IS literature. The authors present a detailed review of literature from main IS journals and conferences. The paper concludes with a tentative operational definition, a list of perceived main objectives of Shared Services, and an agenda for related future research.
Resumo:
Given there is currently a migration trend from traditional electrical supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems towards a smart grid based approach to critical infrastructure management. This project provides an evaluation of existing and proposed implementations for both traditional electrical SCADA and smart grid based architectures, and proposals a set of reference requirements which test bed implementations should implement. A high-level design for smart grid test beds is proposed and initial implementation performed, based on the proposed design, using open source and freely available software tools. The project examines the move towards smart grid based critical infrastructure management and illustrates the increased security requirements. The implemented test bed provides a basic framework for testing network requirements in a smart grid environment, as well as a platform for further research and development. Particularly to develop, implement and test network security related disturbances such as intrusion detection and network forensics. The project undertaken proposes and develops an architecture of the emulation of some smart grid functionality. The Common Open Research Emulator (CORE) platform was used to emulate the communication network of the smart grid. Specifically CORE was used to virtualise and emulate the TCP/IP networking stack. This is intended to be used for further evaluation and analysis, for example the analysis of application protocol messages, etc. As a proof of concept, software libraries were designed, developed and documented to enable and support the design and development of further smart grid emulated components, such as reclosers, switches, smart meters, etc. As part of the testing and evaluation a Modbus based smart meter emulator was developed to provide basic functionality of a smart meter. Further code was developed to send Modbus request messages to the emulated smart meter and receive Modbus responses from it. Although the functionality of the emulated components were limited, it does provide a starting point for further research and development. The design is extensible to enable the design and implementation of additional SCADA protocols. The project also defines an evaluation criteria for the evaluation of the implemented test bed, and experiments are designed to evaluate the test bed according to the defined criteria. The results of the experiments are collated and presented, and conclusions drawn from the results to facilitate discussion on the test bed implementation. The discussion undertaken also present possible future work.
Resumo:
Young children’s transition into school has been constructed as a time-limited period around initial school entry, a set of teacher or school practices, a process of establishing continuity of experience, a multi-layered, multi-year set of experiences and a dynamic relationship-based process. Although preparedness issues continue to be addressed, there is a trend towards more complex understandings of transition emphasizing continuity, relationships amongst multiple stakeholders, system coherence across extended time periods and enhancement of resilience and transition capital. This article, in the early years of a new century, outlines some conceptualisations of readiness and transition as they relate to diverse children’s pathways through early childhood and early school settings.
Resumo:
The Sascha-Pelligrini low-sulphidation epithermal system is located on the western edge of the Deseado Massif, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina. Outcrop sampling has returned values of up to 160g/t gold and 796g/t silver, with Mirasol Resources and Coeur D.Alene Mines currently exploring the property. Detailed mapping of the volcanic stratigraphy has defined three units that comprise the middle Jurassic Chon Aike Formation and two units that comprise the upper Jurassic La Matilde Formation. The Chon Aike Formation consists of rhyodacite ignimbrites and tuffs, with the La Matilde Formation including rhyolite ash and lithic tuffs. The volcanic sequence is intruded by a large flow-banded rhyolite dome, with small, spatially restricted granodiorite dykes and sills cropping out across the study area. ASTER multispectral mineral mapping, combined with PIMA (Portable Infrared Mineral Analyser) and XRD (X-ray diffraction) analysis defines an alteration pattern that zones from laumontite-montmorillonite, to illite-pyritechlorite, followed by a quartz-illite-smectite-pyrite-adularia vein selvage. Supergene kaolinite and steam-heated acid-sulphate kaolinite-alunite-opal alteration horizons crop out along the Sascha Vein trend and Pelligrini respectively. Paragenetically, epithermal veining varies from chalcedonic to saccharoidal with minor bladed textures, colloform/crustiform-banded with visible electrum and acanthite, crustiform-banded grey chalcedonic to jasperoidal with fine pyrite, and crystalline comb quartz. Geothermometry of mineralised veins constrains formation temperatures from 174.8 to 205.1¡ÆC and correlates with the stability field for the interstratified illite-smectite vein selvage. Vein morphology, mineralogy and associated alteration are controlled by host rock rheology, permeability, and depth of the palaeo-water table. Mineralisation within ginguro banded veins resulted from fluctuating fluid pH associated with selenide-rich magmatic pulses, pressure release boiling and wall-rock silicate buffering. The study of the Sascha-Pelligrini epithermal system will form the basis for a deposit-specific model helping to clarify the current understanding of epithermal deposits, and may serve as a template for exploration of similar epithermal deposits throughout Santa Cruz.
Resumo:
This study reports on the impact of a "drink driving education program" taught to grade ten high school students. The program which involves twelve lessons uses strategies based on the Ajzen and Madden theory of planned behavior. Students were trained to use alternatives to drink driving and passenger behaviors. One thousand seven hundred and seventy-four students who had been taught the program in randomly assigned control and intervention schools were followed up three years later. There had been a major reduction in drink driving behaviors in both intervention and control students. In addition to this cohort change there was a trend toward reduced drink driving in the intervention group and a significant reduction in passenger behavior in this group. Readiness to use alternatives suggested that the major impact of the program was on students who were experimenting with the behavior at the time the program was taught. The program seems to have optimized concurrent social attitude and behavior change.
Resumo:
This study investigates the antecedents to clothing disposal methods in two countries: Scotland and Australia. Increasing volumes of textiles are disposed of in landfill sites to the detriment of the environment. Extant research has identified the influences affecting an increased rate of purchasing and the trend to keep clothing for an ever shorter time. As such, it is imperative to examine the factors that affect consumers’ choice of clothing disposal method as limited research has been undertaken in this area of socially responsible consumption. The results of a survey administered to a sample of female consumers in the two countries identify antecedents of three forms of clothing disposal methods: selling through eBay or second-hand shops, giving away to family or friends or donating to charities. Findings show differences between the countries regarding clothing disposal behaviour. Nevertheless, general recycling behaviour was found to be the strongest predictor for donating to charities in both countries.
Resumo:
Background: Young motorists engaging in anti-social and often dangerous driving manoeuvres (which is often referred to as “hooning” within Australia) is an increasing road safety problem. While anecdotal evidence suggests that such behaviour is positively linked with crash involvement, researchers have yet to examine whether younger drivers who deliberately break road rules and drive in an erratic manner (usually with peers) are in fact over represented in crash statistics. This paper outlines research that aimed to identify the characteristics of individuals most likely to engaging in hooning behaviours, as well as examine the frequency of such driving behaviours and if such activity is linked with self-reported crash involvement.---------- Methods: A total of 717 young drivers in Queensland voluntarily completed a questionnaire to investigate their driving behaviour and crash history.---------- Results: Quantitative analysis of the data revealed that almost half the sample reported engaging in some form of “hooning” behaviour at least once in their lifetime, although only 4% indicated heavy participation in the behaviour e.g., >50 times. Street racing was the most common activity reported by participants followed by “drifting” and then “burnouts”. Logistic regression analysis indicated that being younger and a male was predictive of reporting such anti-social driving behaviours, and importantly, a trend was identified between such behaviour and self-reported crash involvement.---------- Conclusions: This research provides preliminary evidence that younger male drivers are more likely to engage in dangerous driving behaviours, which ultimately may prove to increase their overall risk of becoming involved in a crash. This paper will further outline the study findings in regards to current enforcement efforts to deter such driving activity as well as provide direction for future research efforts in this area.---------- Research highlights: ► The self-reported driving behaviours of 717 younger Queensland drivers were examined to investigate the relationship between deliberately breaking road rules and self-reported crash involvement. ► Younger male drivers were most likely to engage in such aberrant driving behaviours and a trend was identified between such behaviour and self-reported crash involvement.
Resumo:
Background: A number of studies have examined the relationship between high ambient temperature and mortality. Recently, concern has arisen about whether this relationship is modified by socio-demographic factors. However, data for this type of study is relatively scarce in subtropical/tropical regions where people are well accustomed to warm temperatures. Objective: To investigate whether the relationship between daily mean temperature and daily all-cause mortality is modified by age, gender and socio-economic status (SES) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: We obtained daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality data for Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004. A generalised additive model was fitted to assess the percentage increase in all deaths with every one degree increment above the threshold temperature. Different age, gender and SES groups were included in the model as categorical variables and their modification effects were estimated separately. Results: A total of 53,316 non-external deaths were included during the study period. There was a clear increasing trend in the harmful effect of high temperature on mortality with age. The effect estimate among women was more than 20 times that among men. We did not find an SES effect on the percent increase associated with temperature. Conclusions: The effects of high temperature on all deaths were modified by age and gender but not by SES in Brisbane, Australia.
Resumo:
The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.
Resumo:
Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.
Resumo:
Operations management is an area concerned with the production of goods and services ensuring that business operations are efficient in utilizing resource and effective to meet customer requirements. It deals with the design and management of products, processes, services and supply chains and considers the acquisition, development, and effective and efficient utilization of resources. Unlike other engineering subjects, content of these units could be very wide and vast. It is therefore necessary to cover the content that is most related to the contemporary industries. It is also necessary to understand what engineering management skills are critical for engineers working in the contemporary organisations. Most of the operations management books contain traditional Operations Management techniques. For example ‘inventory management’ is an important topic in operations management. All OM books deal with effective method of inventory management. However, new trend in OM is Just in time (JIT) delivery or minimization of inventory. It is therefore important to decide whether to emphasise on keeping inventory (as suggested by most books) or minimization of inventory. Similarly, for OM decisions like forecasting, optimization and linear programming most organisations now a day’s use software. Now it is important for us to determine whether some of these software need to be introduced in tutorial/ lab classes. If so, what software? It is established in the Teaching and Learning literature that there must be a strong alignment between unit objectives, assessment and learning activities to engage students in learning. Literature also established that engaging students is vital for learning. However, engineering units (more specifically Operations management) is quite different from other majors. Only alignment between objectives, assessment and learning activities cannot guarantee student engagement. Unit content must be practical oriented and skills to be developed should be those demanded by the industry. Present active learning research, using a multi-method research approach, redesigned the operations management content based on latest developments in Engineering Management area and the necessity of Australian industries. The redesigned unit has significantly helped better student engagement and better learning. It was found that students are engaged in the learning if they find the contents are helpful in developing skills that are necessary in their practical life.
Resumo:
This thesis investigates the coefficient of performance (COP) of a hybrid liquid desiccant solar cooling system. This hybrid cooling system includes three sections: 1) conventional air-conditioning section; 2) liquid desiccant dehumidification section and 3) air mixture section. The air handling unit (AHU) with mixture variable air volume design is included in the hybrid cooling system to control humidity. In the combined system, the air is first dehumidified in the dehumidifier and then mixed with ambient air by AHU before entering the evaporator. Experiments using lithium chloride as the liquid desiccant have been carried out for the performance evaluation of the dehumidifier and regenerator. Based on the air mixture (AHU) design, the electrical coefficient of performance (ECOP), thermal coefficient of performance (TCOP) and whole system coefficient of performance (COPsys) models used in the hybrid liquid desiccant solar cooing system were developed to evaluate this system performance. These mathematical models can be used to describe the coefficient of performance trend under different ambient conditions, while also providing a convenient comparison with conventional air conditioning systems. These models provide good explanations about the relationship between the performance predictions of models and ambient air parameters. The simulation results have revealed the coefficient of performance in hybrid liquid desiccant solar cooling systems substantially depends on ambient air and dehumidifier parameters. Also, the liquid desiccant experiments prove that the latent component of the total cooling load requirements can be easily fulfilled by using the liquid desiccant dehumidifier. While cooling requirements can be met, the liquid desiccant system is however still subject to the hysteresis problems.