Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Alleviating ‘overfitting’ via genetically-regularised neural network

A hybrid genetic algorithm/scaled conjugate gradient regularisation method is designed to alleviate ANN `over-fitting'. In application to day-ahead load forecasting, the proposed algorithm performs better than early-stopping and Bayesian regularisation, showing promising initial results.

Predicting dry eye using non-invasive techniques of tear film surface assessment

PURPOSE. To measure tear film surface quality in healthy and dry eye subjects using three noninvasive techniques of tear film quality assessment and to establish the ability of these noninvasive techniques to predict dry eye. METHODS. Thirty four subjects participated in the study, and were classified as dry eye or normal, based on standard clinical assessments. Three non-invasive techniques were applied for measurement of tear film surface quality: dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV), wavefront sensing (DWS) and lateral shearing interferometry (LSI). The measurements were performed in both natural blinking conditions (NBC) and in suppressed blinking conditions (SBC). RESULTS. In order to investigate the capability of each method to discriminate dry eye subjects from normal subjects, the receiver operating curve (ROC) was calculated and then the area under the curve (AUC) was extracted. The best result was obtained for the LSI technique (AUC=0.80 in SBC and AUC=0.73 in NBC), which was followed by HSV (AUC=0.72 in SBC and AUC=0.71 in NBC). The best result for DWS was AUC=0.64 obtained for changes in vertical coma in suppressed blinking conditions, while for normal blinking conditions the results were poorer. CONCLUSIONS. Non-invasive techniques of tear film surface assessment can be used for predicting dry eye and this can be achieved in natural blinking as well as suppressed blinking conditions. In this study, LSI showed the best detection performance, closely followed by the dynamic-area HSV. The wavefront sensing technique was less powerful, particularly in natural blinking conditions.

Contact Lens Practice, 2nd Edition

Thoroughly revised and updated, this popular book provides a comprehensive yet easy to read guide to modern contact lens practice. Beautifully re-designed in a clean, contemporary layout, this second edition presents relevant and up-to-date information in a systematic manner, with a logical flow of subject matter from front to back. This book wonderfully captures the ‘middle ground’ in the contact lens field … somewhere between a dense research-based tome and a basic fitting guide. As such, it is ideally suited for both students and general eye care practitioners who require a practical, accessible and uncluttered account of the contact lens field. Contents Part 1 Introduction Historical perspective. The anterior eye Visual optics Clinical instruments Part 2 Soft contact lenses Soft lens materials Soft lens manufacture Soft lens optics Soft lens measurement Soft lens design and fitting Soft toric lens design and fitting Soft lens care systems Part 3 Rigid contact lenses Rigid lens materials Rigid lens manufacture Rigid lens optics Rigid lens measurement Rigid lens design and fitting Rigid toric lens design and fitting Rigid lens care systems Part 4 Lens replacement modalities Unplanned lens replacement Daily soft lens replacement Planned soft lens replacement Planned rigid lens replacement Part 5 Special lenses and fitting considerations Scleral lenses Tinted lenses Presbyopia Continuous wear Sport Keratoconus High ametropia Paediatric fitting Therapeutic applications Post-refractive Surgery Post-keratoplasty Orthokeratology Diabetes Part 6 Patient examination and management History taking Preliminary examination Patient education Aftercare Complications Digital imaging Compliance Practice management Appendices Index

Freeway traffic estimation in Beijing based on particle filter

Short-term traffic flow data is characterized by rapid and dramatic fluctuations. It reflects the nature of the frequent congestion in the lane, which shows a strong nonlinear feature. Traffic state estimation based on the data gained by electronic sensors is critical for much intelligent traffic management and the traffic control. In this paper, a solution to freeway traffic estimation in Beijing is proposed using a particle filter, based on macroscopic traffic flow model, which estimates both traffic density and speed.Particle filter is a nonlinear prediction method, which has obvious advantages for traffic flows prediction. However, with the increase of sampling period, the volatility of the traffic state curve will be much dramatic. Therefore, the prediction accuracy will be affected and difficulty of forecasting is raised. In this paper, particle filter model is applied to estimate the short-term traffic flow. Numerical study is conducted based on the Beijing freeway data with the sampling period of 2 min. The relatively high accuracy of the results indicates the superiority of the proposed model.

The crash involvement of older drivers is associated with their hazard perception latencies

Hazard perception in driving is the one of the few driving-specific skills associated with crash involvement. However, this relationship has only been examined in studies where the majority of individuals were younger than 65. We present the first data revealing an association between hazard perception and self-reported crash involvement in drivers aged 65 and over. In a sample of 271 drivers, we found that individuals whose mean response time to traffic hazards was slower than 6.68 seconds (the ROC-curve derived pass mark for the test) were 2.32 times (95% CI 1.46, 3.22) more likely to have been involved in a self-reported crash within the previous five years than those with faster response times. This likelihood ratio became 2.37 (95% CI 1.49, 3.28) when driving exposure was controlled for. As a comparison, individuals who failed a test of useful field of view were 2.70 (95% CI 1.44, 4.44) times more likely to crash than those who passed. The hazard perception test and the useful field of view measure accounted for separate variance in crash involvement. These findings indicate that hazard perception testing and training could be potentially useful for road safety interventions for this age group.

Adapting to the work-life interface : the influence of individual differences, work and family on well-being, mental health and work engagement

Bronfenbrenner.s Bioecological Model, expressed as the developmental equation, D f PPCT, is the theoretical framework for two studies that bring together diverse strands of psychology to study the work-life interface of working adults. Occupational and organizational psychology is focused on the demands and resources of work and family, without emphasising the individual in detail. Health and personality psychology examine the individual but without emphasis on the individual.s work and family roles. The current research used Bronfenbrenner.s theoretical framework to combine individual differences, work and family to understand how these factors influence the working adult.s psychological functioning. Competent development has been defined as high well-being (measured as life satisfaction and psychological well-being) and high work engagement (as work vigour, work dedication and absorption in work) and as the absence of mental illness (as depression, anxiety and stress) and the absence of burnout (as emotional exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy). Study 1 and 2 were linked, with Study 1 as a cross-sectional survey and Study 2, a prospective panel study that followed on from the data used in Study1. Participants were recruited from a university and from a large public hospital to take part in a 3-wave, online study where they completed identical surveys at 3-4 month intervals (N = 470 at Time 1 and N = 198 at Time 3). In Study 1, hierarchical multiple regressions were used to assess the effects of individual differences (Block 1, e.g. dispositional optimism, coping self-efficacy, perceived control of time, humour), work and family variables (Block 2, e.g. affective commitment, skill discretion, work hours, children, marital status, family demands) and the work-life interface (Block 3, e.g. direction and quality of spillover between roles, work-life balance) on the outcomes. There were a mosaic of predictors of the outcomes with a group of seven that were the most frequent significant predictors and which represented the individual (dispositional optimism and coping self-efficacy), the workplace (skill discretion, affective commitment and job autonomy) and the work-life interface (negative work-to-family spillover and negative family-to-work spillover). Interestingly, gender and working hours were not important predictors. The effects of job social support, generally and for work-life issues, perceived control of time and egalitarian gender roles on the outcomes were mediated by negative work-to-family spillover, particularly for emotional exhaustion. Further, the effect of negative spillover on depression, anxiety and work engagement was moderated by the individual.s personal and workplace resources. Study 2 modelled the longitudinal relationships between the group of the seven most frequent predictors and the outcomes. Using a set of non-nested models, the relative influences of concurrent functioning, stability and change over time were assessed. The modelling began with models at Time 1, which formed the basis for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to establish the underlying relationships between the variables and calculate the composite variables for the longitudinal models. The CFAs were well fitting with few modifications to ensure good fit. However, using burnout and work engagement together required additional analyses to resolve poor fit, with one factor (representing a continuum from burnout to work engagement) being the only acceptable solution. Five different longitudinal models were investigated as the Well-Being, Mental Distress, Well-Being-Mental Health, Work Engagement and Integrated models using differing combinations of the outcomes. The best fitting model for each was a reciprocal model that was trimmed of trivial paths. The strongest paths were the synchronous correlations and the paths within variables over time. The reciprocal paths were more variable with weak to mild effects. There was evidence of gain and loss spirals between the variables over time, with a slight net gain in resources that may provide the mechanism for the accumulation of psychological advantage over a lifetime. The longitudinal models also showed that there are leverage points at which personal, psychological and managerial interventions can be targeted to bolster the individual and provide supportive workplace conditions that also minimise negative spillover. Bronfenbrenner.s developmental equation has been a useful framework for the current research, showing the importance of the person as central to the individual.s experience of the work-life interface. By taking control of their own life, the individual can craft a life path that is most suited to their own needs. Competent developmental outcomes were most likely where the person was optimistic and had high self-efficacy, worked in a job that they were attached to and which allowed them to use their talents and without too much negative spillover between their work and family domains. In this way, individuals had greater well-being, better mental health and greater work engagement at any one time and across time.

Soft toric contact lens prescribing in different countries

There have been significant improvements in toric soft contact lens design over the past decade. Data from our international contact lens prescribing survey were mined to assess recent trends in toric soft contact lens fitting. This survey was conducted by sending up to 1000 survey forms to contact lens fitters in Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA each year between 2000 and 2009. Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the forms and to return them to us for analysis. The data revealed a gradual increase in the extent of toric soft lens fitting this century. Excluding Japan – which had a consistently low rate of soft toric lens fitting over the survey period – soft toric lenses now represent over 35% of all soft lenses prescribed; it can be assumed that, on average (and again excluding Japan), all cases of astigmatism 0.75 D or less remains uncorrected among contact lens wearers. Toric lenses are fitted more to those who are older, full-time wearers and reusable lens wearers, and less to those wearing silicone hydrogel and extended wear lenses.

Corneal confocal microscopy : a novel noninvasive test to diagnose and stratify the severity of human diabetic neuropathy

OBJECTIVE: The accurate quantification of human diabetic neuropathy is important to define at-risk patients, anticipate deterioration, and assess new therapies. ---------- RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 101 diabetic patients and 17 age-matched control subjects underwent neurological evaluation, neurophysiology tests, quantitative sensory testing, and evaluation of corneal sensation and corneal nerve morphology using corneal confocal microscopy (CCM). ---------- RESULTS: Corneal sensation decreased significantly (P = 0.0001) with increasing neuropathic severity and correlated with the neuropathy disability score (NDS) (r = 0.441, P < 0.0001). Corneal nerve fiber density (NFD) (P < 0.0001), nerve fiber length (NFL), (P < 0.0001), and nerve branch density (NBD) (P < 0.0001) decreased significantly with increasing neuropathic severity and correlated with NDS (NFD r = −0.475, P < 0.0001; NBD r = −0.511, P < 0.0001; and NFL r = −0.581, P < 0.0001). NBD and NFL demonstrated a significant and progressive reduction with worsening heat pain thresholds (P = 0.01). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for the diagnosis of neuropathy (NDS >3) defined an NFD of <27.8/mm2 with a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI 0.68–0.92) and specificity of 0.52 (0.40–0.64) and for detecting patients at risk of foot ulceration (NDS >6) defined a NFD cutoff of <20.8/mm2 with a sensitivity of 0.71 (0.42–0.92) and specificity of 0.64 (0.54–0.74). ---------- CONCLUSIONS: CCM is a noninvasive clinical technique that may be used to detect early nerve damage and stratify diabetic patients with increasing neuropathic severity. Established diabetic neuropathy leads to pain and foot ulceration. Detecting neuropathy early may allow intervention with treatments to slow or reverse this condition (1). Recent studies suggested that small unmyelinated C-fibers are damaged early in diabetic neuropathy (2–4) but can only be detected using invasive procedures such as sural nerve biopsy (4,5) or skin-punch biopsy (6–8). Our studies have shown that corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) can identify early small nerve fiber damage and accurately quantify the severity of diabetic neuropathy (9–11). We have also shown that CCM relates to intraepidermal nerve fiber loss (12) and a reduction in corneal sensitivity (13) and detects early nerve fiber regeneration after pancreas transplantation (14). Recently we have also shown that CCM detects nerve fiber damage in patients with Fabry disease (15) and idiopathic small fiber neuropathy (16) when results of electrophysiology tests and quantitative sensory testing (QST) are normal. In this study we assessed corneal sensitivity and corneal nerve morphology using CCM in diabetic patients stratified for the severity of diabetic neuropathy using neurological evaluation, electrophysiology tests, and QST. This enabled us to compare CCM and corneal esthesiometry with established tests of diabetic neuropathy and define their sensitivity and specificity to detect diabetic patients with early neuropathy and those at risk of foot ulceration.

Obituary - Rigid contact lenses

Scleral and corneal rigid lenses represented 100 per cent of the contact lens market immediately prior to the invention of soft lenses in the mid-1960s. In the United Kingdom today, rigid lenses comprise 2 per cent of all new lens fits. Low rates of rigid lens fitting are also apparent in 27 other countries which have recently been surveyed. Thus, the 1998 prediction of the author that rigid lenses – also referred to as ‘rigid gas permeable’ (RGP) lenses or ‘gas permeable’ (GP) lenses – would be obsolete by the year 2010 has essentially turned out to be correct. In this obituary, the author offers 10 reasons for the demise of rigid lens fitting: initial rigid lens discomfort; intractable rigid lens-induced corneal and lid pathology; extensive soft lens advertising; superior soft lens fitting logistics; lack of rigid lens training opportunities; redundancy of the rigid lens ‘problem solver’ function; improved soft toric and bifocal/varifocal lenses; limited uptake of orthokeratology; lack of investment in rigid lenses; and the emergence of aberration control soft lenses. Rigid lenses are now being fitted by a minority of practitioners with specialist skills/training. Certainly, rigid lenses can no longer be considered as a mainstream form of contact lens correction. May their dear souls (bulk properties) rest in peace.

An international survey of contact lens prescribing for presbyopia

Purpose: The aim was to determine world-wide patterns of fitting contact lenses for the correction of presbyopia. Methods: Up to 1,000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in each of 38 countries between January and March every year over five consecutive years (2005 to 2009). Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fittings or refittings performed after receiving the survey form. Results: Data were received relating to 16,680 presbyopic (age 45 years or older) and 84,202 pre-presbyopic (15 to 44 years) contact lens wearers. Females are over-represented in presbyopic versus pre-presbyopic groups, possibly reflecting a stronger desire for the cosmetic benefits of contact lenses among older women. The extent to which multifocal and monovision lenses are prescribed for presbyopes varies considerably among nations, ranging from 79 per cent of all soft lenses in Portugal to zero in Singapore. There appears to be significant under-prescribing of contact lenses for the correction of presbyopia, although for those who do receive such corrections, three times more multifocal lenses are fitted compared with monovision fittings. Presbyopic corrections are most frequently prescribed for full-time wear and monthly replacement. Conclusions: Despite apparent improvements in multifocal design and an increase in available multifocal options in recent years, practitioners are still under-prescribing with respect to the provision of appropriate contact lenses for the correction of presbyopia. Training of contact lens practitioners in presbyopic contact lens fitting should be accelerated and clinical and laboratory research in this field should be intensified to enhance the prospects of meeting the needs of presbyopic contact lens wearers more fully.

Corneal sensitivity as an ophthalmic marker of diabetic neuropathy

Purpose. The objective of this study was to explore the discriminative capacity of non-contact corneal esthesiometry (NCCE) when compared with the neuropathy disability score (NDS) score—a validated, standard method of diagnosing clinically significant diabetic neuropathy. Methods. Eighty-one participants with type 2 diabetes, no history of ocular disease, trauma, or surgery and no history of systemic disease that may affect the cornea were enrolled. Participants were ineligible if there was history of neuropathy due to non-diabetic cause or current diabetic foot ulcer or infection. Corneal sensitivity threshold was measured on the eye of dominant hand side at a distance of 10 mm from the center of the cornea using a stimulus duration of 0.9 s. The NDS was measured producing a score ranging from 0 to 10. To determine the optimal cutoff point of corneal sensitivity that identified the presence of neuropathy (diagnosed by NDS), the Youden index and “closest-to-(0,1)” criteria were used. Results. The receiver-operator characteristic curve for NCCE for the presence of neuropathy (NDS ≥3) had an area under the curve of 0.73 (p = 0.001) and, for the presence of moderate neuropathy (NDS ≥6), area of 0.71 (p = 0.003). By using the Youden index, for an NDS ≥3, the sensitivity of NCCE was 70% and specificity was 75%, and a corneal sensitivity threshold of 0.66 mbar or higher indicated the presence of neuropathy. When NDS ≥6 (indicating risk of foot ulceration) was applied, the sensitivity was 52% with a specificity of 85%. Conclusions. NCCE is a sensitive test for the diagnosis of minimal and more advanced diabetic neuropathy and may serve as a useful surrogate marker for diabetic and perhaps other neuropathies.

An enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) for analysis of crack tip fields

In this paper, an enriched radial point interpolation method (e-RPIM) is developed the for the determination of crack tip fields. In e-RPIM, the conventional RBF interpolation is novelly augmented by the suitable trigonometric basis functions to reflect the properties of stresses for the crack tip fields. The performance of the enriched RBF meshfree shape functions is firstly investigated to fit different surfaces. The surface fitting results have proven that, comparing with the conventional RBF shape function, the enriched RBF shape function has: (1) a similar accuracy to fit a polynomial surface; (2) a much better accuracy to fit a trigonometric surface; and (3) a similar interpolation stability without increase of the condition number of the RBF interpolation matrix. Therefore, it has proven that the enriched RBF shape function will not only possess all advantages of the conventional RBF shape function, but also can accurately reflect the properties of stresses for the crack tip fields. The system of equations for the crack analysis is then derived based on the enriched RBF meshfree shape function and the meshfree weak-form. Several problems of linear fracture mechanics are simulated using this newlydeveloped e-RPIM method. It has demonstrated that the present e-RPIM is very accurate and stable, and it has a good potential to develop a practical simulation tool for fracture mechanics problems.

Ability of silver-impregnated contact lenses to control microbial growth and colonisation

Purpose: To examine the ability of silver nano-particles to prevent the growth of Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus in solution or when adsorbed into contact lenses. To examine the ability of silver nano-particles to prevent the growth of Acanthamoeba castellanii. ----- ----- Methods: Etafilcon A lenses were soaked in various concentrations of silver nano-particles. Bacterial cells were then exposed to these lenses, and numbers of viable cells on lens surface or in solution compared to etafilcon A lenses not soaked in silver. Acanthamoeba trophozoites were exposed to silver nano-particles and their ability to form tracks was examined. ----- ----- Results: Silver nano-particle containing lenses reduced bacterial viability and adhesion. There was a dose-dependent response curve, with 10 ppm or 20 ppm silver showing > 5 log reduction in bacterial viability in solution or on the lens surface. For Acanthamoeba, 20 ppm silver reduced the ability to form tracks by approximately 1 log unit. ----- ----- Conclusions: Silver nanoparticles are effective antimicrobial agents, and can reduce the ability of viable bacterial cells to colonise contact lenses once incorporated into the lens.----- ----- Resumen: Objetivos: Examinar la capacidad de las nanopartículas de plata para prevenir el crecimiento de Pseudomonas aeruginosa y Staphylococcus aureus en soluciones para lentes de contacto o cuando éstas las adsorben. Examinar la capacidad de las nanopartículas de plata para prevenir el crecimiento de Acanthamoeba castellanii.----- ----- Métodos: Se sumergieron lentes etafilcon A en diversas concentraciones de nanopartículas de plata. Las células bacterianas fueron posteriormente expuestas a dichas lentes, y se compararon cantidades de células viables en la superficie de la lente o en la solución con las presentes en lentes etafilcon A que no habían sido sumergidas en plata. Trofozoítos de Acanthamoeba fueron expuestos a nanopartículas de plata y se examinó su capacidad para formar quistes.----- ----- Resultados: Las lentes que contienen nanopartículas de plata redujeron la viabilidad bacteriana y la adhesión. Hubo una curva de respuesta dependiente de la dosis, en la que 10 ppm o 20 ppm de plata mostró una reducción logarítmica > 5 en la viabilidad bacteriana tanto en la solución como en la superficie de la lente. Para Acanthamoeba, 20 ppm de plata redujeron la capacidad de formar quistes en aproximadamente 1 unidad logarítmica.----- ----- Conclusiones: Las nanopartículas de plata son agentes antimicrobianos eficaces y pueden reducir la capacidad de células bacterianas viables para colonizar las lentes de contacto una vez que se han incorporado en la lente.

Altering heavy vehicle air suspension dynamic forces by modifying air lines

An experimental programme in 2007 used three air suspended heavy vehicles travelling over typical urban roads to determine whether dynamic axle-to-chassis forces could be reduced by using larger-than-standard diameter longitudinal air lines. This paper presents methodology, interim analysis and partial results from that programme. Alterations to dynamic measures derived from axle-to-chassis forces for the case of standard-sized longitudinal air lines vs. the test case where larger longitudinal air lines were fitted are presented and discussed. This leads to conclusions regarding the possibility that dynamic loadings between heavy vehicle suspensions and chassis may be reduced by fitting larger longitudinal air lines to air-suspended heavy vehicles. Reductions in the shock and vibration loads to heavy vehicle suspension components could lead to lighter and more economical chassis and suspensions. This could therefore lead to reduced tare and increased payloads without an increase in gross vehicle mass.