Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

An optimization-based algorithm for shunt active filter under distorted supply voltages

When the supply voltages are balanced and sinusoidal, load compensation can give both unity power factor (UPF) and perfect harmonic cancellation (PHC) source currents. But under distorted supply voltages, achieving both UPF and PHC currents are not possible and contradictory to each other. Hence there should be an optimal performance between these two important compensation goals. This paper presents an optimal control algorithm for load compensation under unbalanced and distorted supply voltages. In this algorithm source currents are compensated for reactive, imbalance components and harmonic distortions set by the limits. By satisfying the harmonic distortion limits and power balance, this algorithm gives the source currents which will provide the maximum achievable power factor. The detailed simulation results using MATLAB are presented to support the performance of the proposed optimal control algorithm.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Application of K-tree to document clustering

Digital collections are growing exponentially in size as the information age takes a firm grip on all aspects of society. As a result Information Retrieval (IR) has become an increasingly important area of research. It promises to provide new and more effective ways for users to find information relevant to their search intentions. Document clustering is one of the many tools in the IR toolbox and is far from being perfected. It groups documents that share common features. This grouping allows a user to quickly identify relevant information. If these groups are misleading then valuable information can accidentally be ignored. There- fore, the study and analysis of the quality of document clustering is important. With more and more digital information available, the performance of these algorithms is also of interest. An algorithm with a time complexity of O(n2) can quickly become impractical when clustering a corpus containing millions of documents. Therefore, the investigation of algorithms and data structures to perform clustering in an efficient manner is vital to its success as an IR tool. Document classification is another tool frequently used in the IR field. It predicts categories of new documents based on an existing database of (doc- ument, category) pairs. Support Vector Machines (SVM) have been found to be effective when classifying text documents. As the algorithms for classifica- tion are both efficient and of high quality, the largest gains can be made from improvements to representation. Document representations are vital for both clustering and classification. Representations exploit the content and structure of documents. Dimensionality reduction can improve the effectiveness of existing representations in terms of quality and run-time performance. Research into these areas is another way to improve the efficiency and quality of clustering and classification results. Evaluating document clustering is a difficult task. Intrinsic measures of quality such as distortion only indicate how well an algorithm minimised a sim- ilarity function in a particular vector space. Intrinsic comparisons are inherently limited by the given representation and are not comparable between different representations. Extrinsic measures of quality compare a clustering solution to a “ground truth” solution. This allows comparison between different approaches. As the “ground truth” is created by humans it can suffer from the fact that not every human interprets a topic in the same manner. Whether a document belongs to a particular topic or not can be subjective.

Optimization of long rural feeders using a genetic algorithm

This paper describes the optimization of conductor size and the voltage regulator location & magnitude of long rural distribution lines. The optimization minimizes the lifetime cost of the lines, including capital costs and losses while observing voltage drop and operational constraints using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The GA optimization is applied to a real Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) network in regional Queensland and results are presented.

Upper-body morbidity following breast cancer treatment is common, may persist longer-term and adversely influences quality of life

Background: Impairments in upper-body function (UBF) are common following breast cancer. However, the relationship between arm morbidity and quality of life (QoL) remains unclear. This investigation uses longitudinal data to describe UBF in a population-based sample of women with breast cancer and examines its relationship with QoL. ---------- Methods: Australian women (n = 287) with unilateral breast cancer were assessed at three-monthly intervals, from six- to 18-months post-surgery (PS). Strength, endurance and flexibility were used to assess objective UBF, while the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy- Breast questionnaire were used to assess self-reported UBF and QoL, respectively. ---------- Results: Although mean UBF improved over time, up to 41% of women revealed declines in UBF between sixand 18-months PS. Older age, lower socioeconomic position, treatment on the dominant side, mastectomy, more extensive lymph node removal and having lymphoedema each increased odds of declines in UBF by at least twofold (p < 0.05). Lower baseline and declines in perceived UBF between six- and 18-months PS were each associated with poorer QoL at 18-months PS (p < 0.05). ---------- Conclusions: Significant upper-body morbidity is experienced by many following breast cancer treatment, persisting longer term, and adversely influencing the QoL of breast cancer survivors.

Dynamic coast control of train movement with genetic algorithm

The railway service is now the major transportation means in most of the countries around the world. With the increasing population and expanding commercial and industrial activities, a high quality of railway service is the most desirable. Train service usually varies with the population activities throughout a day and train coordination and service regulation are then expected to meet the daily passengers' demand. Dwell time control at stations and fixed coasting point in an inter-station run are the current practices to regulate train service in most metro railway systems. However, a flexible and efficient train control and operation is not always possible. To minimize energy consumption of train operation and make certain compromises on the train schedule, coast control is an economical approach to balance run-time and energy consumption in railway operation if time is not an important issue, particularly at off-peak hours. The capability to identify the starting point for coasting according to the current traffic conditions provides the necessary flexibility for train operation. This paper presents an application of genetic algorithms (GA) to search for the appropriate coasting point(s) and investigates the possible improvement on fitness of genes. Single and multiple coasting point control with simple GA are developed to attain the solutions and their corresponding train movement is examined. Further, a hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA) is introduced here to identify the number of coasting points required according to the traffic conditions, and Minimum-Allele-Reserve-Keeper (MARK) is adopted as a genetic operator to achieve fitter solutions.

Railway junction conflict resolution by genetic algorithm

In general, simple and traditional methods are applied to resolve traffic conflicts at railway junctions. They are, however, either inefficient or computationally demanding. A simple genetic algorithm is presented to enable a search for a near optimal resolution to be carried out while meeting the constraints on generation evolution and minimising the search time.

Efficient algorithm for achieving GWPMM fairness in ATM ABR services

A new explicit rate allocation algorithm is proposed for achieving generic weight-proportional max-min (GWPMM) fairness in asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) available bit rate services. This algorithm scales well with a fixed computational complexity of O(1) and can realise GWPMM fair rate allocation in an ATM network accurately.

Business Process Model Merging : An Approach to Business Process Consolidation

This paper addresses the problem of constructing consolidated business process models out of collections of process models that share common fragments. The paper considers the construction of unions of multiple models (called merged models) as well as intersections (called digests). Merged models are intended for analysts who wish to create a model that subsumes a collection of process models - typically representing variants of the same underlying process - with the aim of replacing the variants with the merged model. Digests, on the other hand, are intended for analysts who wish to identify the most recurring fragments across a collection of process models, so that they can focus their efforts on optimizing these fragments. The paper presents an algorithm for computing merged models and an algorithm for extracting digests from a merged model. The merging and digest extraction algorithms have been implemented and tested against collections of process models taken from multiple application domains. The tests show that the merging algorithm produces compact models and scales up to process models containing hundreds of nodes. Furthermore, a case study conducted in a large insurance company has demonstrated the usefulness of the merging and digest extraction operators in a practical setting.

Weighted fairness with MCR guarantee and a general-purpose explicit rate allocation algorithm for ATM ABR service

In this paper, weighted fair rate allocation for ATM available bit rate (ABR) service is discussed with the concern of the minimum cell rate (MCR). Weighted fairness with MCR guarantee has been discussed recently in the literature. In those studies, each ABR virtual connection (VC) is first allocated its MCR, then the remaining available bandwidth is further shared among ABR VCs according to their weights. For the weighted fairness defined in this paper, the bandwidth is first allocated according to each VC's weight; if a VC's weighted share is less than its MCR, it should be allocated its MCR instead of the weighted share. This weighted fairness with MCR guarantee is referred to as extended weighted (EXW) fairness. Certain theoretical issues related to EXW, such as its global solution and bottleneck structure, are first discussed in the paper. A distributed explicit rate allocation algorithm is then proposed to achieve EXW fairness in ATM networks. The algorithm is a general-purpose explicit rate algorithm in the sense that it can realise almost all the fairness principles proposed for ABR so far whilst only minor modifications may be needed.

An enhanced explicit rate algorithm for ABR traffic control in ATM networks

A high performance, low computational complexity rate-based flow control algorithm which can avoid congestion and achieve fairness is important to ATM available bit rate service. The explicit rate allocation algorithm proposed by Kalampoukas et al. is designed to achieve max–min fairness in ATM networks. It has several attractive features, such as a fixed computational complexity of O(1) and the guaranteed convergence to max–min fairness. In this paper, certain drawbacks of the algorithm, such as the severe overload of an outgoing link during transient period and the non-conforming use of the current cell rate field in a resource management cell, have been identified and analysed; a new algorithm which overcomes these drawbacks is proposed. The proposed algorithm simplifies the rate computation as well. Compared with Kalampoukas's algorithm, it has better performance in terms of congestion avoidance and smoothness of rate allocation.