Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

The analogue shear zone : from rheology to associated geometry

The geometry of ductile strain localization phenomena is related to the rheology of the deformed rocks. Both qualitative and quantitative rheological properties of natural rocks have been estimated from finite field structures such as folds and shear zones. We apply physical modelling to investigate the relationship between rheology and the temporal evolution of the width and transversal strain distribution in shear zones, both of which have been used previously as rheological proxies. Geologically relevant materials with well-characterized rheological properties (Newtonian, strain hardening, strain softening, Mohr-Coulomb) are deformed in a shear box and observed with Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV). It is shown that the width and strain distribution histories in model shear zones display characteristic finite responses related to material properties as predicted by previous studies. Application of the results to natural shear zones in the field is discussed. An investigation of the impact of 3D boundary conditions in the experiments demonstrates that quantitative methods for estimating rheology from finite natural structures must take these into account carefully.

An interactive and adaptive building layer : strategies for allowing people to become advanced building-users

This paper reports outcomes of a pilot study to develop a conceptual framework to allow people to retrofit a building-layer to gain better control of their own built- environments. The study was initiated by the realisation that discussions surrounding the improvement of building performances tend to be about top-down technological solutions rather than to help and encourage bottom-up involvement of building-users. While users are the ultimate beneficiaries and their feedback is always appreciated, their direct involvements in managing buildings would often be regarded as obstruction or distraction. This is largely because casual interventions by uninformed building-users tend to disrupt the system. Some earlier researches showed however that direct and active participation of users could improve the building performance if appropriate training and/or systems were introduced. We also speculate this in long run would also make the built environment more sustainable. With this in mind, we looked for opportunities to retrofit our own office with an interactive layer to study how we could introduce ad-hoc systems for building-users. The aim of this paper is to describe our vision and initial attempts followed by discussion.

Adaptive sizing of populations and number of islands in distributed genetic algorithms

Deciding the appropriate population size and number of is- lands for distributed island-model genetic algorithms is often critical to the algorithm’s success. This paper outlines a method that automatically searches for good combinations of island population sizes and the number of islands. The method is based on a race between competing parameter sets, and collaborative seeding of new parameter sets. This method is applicable to any problem, and makes distributed genetic algorithms easier to use by reducing the number of user-set parameters. The experimental results show that the proposed method robustly and reliably finds population and islands settings that are comparable to those found with traditional trial-and-error approaches.

Linear adaptive channel equalization for multiuser MIMO-OFDM systems

Linear adaptive channel equalization using the least mean square (LMS) algorithm and the recursive least-squares(RLS) algorithm for an innovative multi-user (MU) MIMOOFDM wireless broadband communications system is proposed. The proposed equalization method adaptively compensates the channel impairments caused by frequency selectivity in the propagation environment. Simulations for the proposed adaptive equalizer are conducted using a training sequence method to determine optimal performance through a comparative analysis. Results show an improvement of 0.15 in BER (at a SNR of 16 dB) when using Adaptive Equalization and RLS algorithm compared to the case in which no equalization is employed. In general, adaptive equalization using LMS and RLS algorithms showed to be significantly beneficial for MU-MIMO-OFDM systems.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer : predicting which patients may benefit most

Background: Recent clinical studies have demonstrated an emerging subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. This disease appears to be a distinct clinical entity with patients presenting younger and with more advanced nodal disease, having lower tobacco and alcohol exposure and highly radiosensitive tumours. This means they are living longer, often with the debilitating functional side effects of treatment. The primary objective of this study was to determine how virally mediated nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers respond to radiation therapy treatment. The aim was to determine risk categories and corresponding adaptive treatment management strategies to proactively manage these patients. Method/Results: 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancer who received radiotherapy treatment with curative intent between 2005 and 2010 were studied. Relevant patient demographics including age, gender, diagnosis, TNM stage, pre-treatment nodal size and dose delivered was recorded. Each patient’s treatment plan was reviewed to determine if another computed tomography (re-CT) scan was performed and at what time point (dose/fraction) this occurred. The justification for this re-CT was determined using four categories: tumour and/or nodal regression, weight loss, both or other. Patients who underwent a re-CT were further investigated to determine whether a new plan was calculated. If a re-plan was performed, the dosimetric effect was quantified by comparing dose volume histograms of planning target volumes and critical structures from the actual treatment delivered and the original treatment plan. Preliminary results demonstrated that 25/121 (20.7%) patients required a re-CT and that these re-CTs were performed between fractions 20 to 25 of treatment. The justification for these re-CTs consisted of a combination of tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss. 16/25 (13.2%) patients had a replan calculated. 9 (7.4%) of these replans were implemented clinically due to the resultant dosimetric effect calculated. The data collected from this assessment was statistically analysed to identify the major determining factors for patients to undergo a re-CT and/or replan. Specific factors identified included nodal size and timing of the required intervention (i.e. how when a plan is to be adapted). This data was used to generate specific risk profiles that will form the basis of a biologically guided adaptive treatment management strategy for virally mediated head and neck cancer. Conclusion: Preliminary data indicates that virally mediated head and neck cancers respond significantly during radiation treatment (tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss). Implications of this response are the potential underdosing or overdosing of tumour and/or surrounding critical structures. This could lead to sub-optimal patient outcomes and compromised quality of life. Consequently, the development of adaptive treatment strategies that improve organ sparing for this patient group is important to ensure delivery of the prescribed dose to the tumour volume whilst minimizing the dose received to surrounding critical structures. This could reduce side effects and improve overall patient quality of life. The risk profiles and associated adaptive treatment approaches developed in this study will be tested prospectively in the clinical setting in Phase 2 of this investigation.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Introduction: Clinical investigation has revealed a subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. The relationship between nasopharyngeal cancer and Epstein Barr Virus (EBV) has long been established and more recently, the association between oropharyngeal cancer and Human Papillomavirus (HPV) has been revealed1,2 These cancers often present with nodal involvement and generally respond well to radiation treatment, evidenced by tumour regression1. This results in the need for treatment plan adaptation or re-planning in a subset of patients. Adaptive techniques allow the target region of the radiotherapy treatment plan to be altered in accordance with treatment-induced changes to ensure that under or over dosing does not occur3. It also assists in limiting potential overdosing of surrounding critical normal tissues4. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive radiotherapy trial. Method: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent radiotherapy treatment were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node at diagnosis with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories to determine the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into risk categories; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Conclusion: In this series, patients with virally mediated head and neck cancer and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of curative radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive radiotherapy study. ‘Real World’ Implications: This research identifies predictive factors for those patients with virally mediated head and neck cancer that will benefit most from treatment adaptation. This will assist in minimising the side effects experienced by these patients thereby improving their quality of life after treatment.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Purpose: Virally mediated head and neck cancers (VMHNC) often present with nodal involvement, and are generally considered radioresponsive, resulting in the need for a re-planning CT during radiotherapy (RT) in a subset of patients. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive RT trial. Methodology: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally-mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent RT were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories for the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into 3 groups; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Sample size did not allow statistical analysis to detect a significant difference or exclusion of a lack of difference between the 3 groups. Conclusion: In this series, patients with VMHNC and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of definitive radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive RT study.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Purpose: Virally mediated head and neck cancers (VMHNC) often present with nodal involvement, and are generally considered radioresponsive, resulting in the need for a re-planning CT during radiotherapy (RT) in a subset of patients. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive RT trial. Methodology: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally-mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal (EBV positive) or oropharyngeal (HPV positive) cancers, receiving curative intent RT were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories for the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into 3 groups; ≤35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥46mm (Group 3). Re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Sample size did not allow statistical analysis to detect a significant difference or exclusion of a lack of difference between the 3 groups. Conclusion: In this series, patients with VMHNC and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of re-planning during a course of definitive radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive RT study.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer

Purpose: Virally mediated head and neck cancers (VMHNC) often present with nodal involvement, and are generally considered radioresponsive, resulting in the need for plan adaptation during radiotherapy in a subset of patients. We sought to identify a high-risk group based on pre-treatment nodal size to be evaluated in a future prospective adaptive radiotherapy trial. Methodology: Between 2005-2010, 121 patients with virally-mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancers, receiving definitive radiotherapy were reviewed. Patients were analysed based on maximum size of the dominant node at diagnosis with a view to grouping them in varying risk categories for the need of re-planning. The frequency and timing of the re-planning scans were also evaluated. Results: Sixteen nasopharyngeal and 105 oropharyngeal tumours were reviewed. Twenty-five (21%) patients underwent a re-planning CT at a median of 22 (range, 0-29) fractions with 1 patient requiring re-planning prior to the commencement of treatment. Based on the analysis, patients were subsequently placed into 3 groups defined by pre-treatment nodal size; ≤ 35mm (Group 1), 36-45mm (Group 2), ≥ 46mm (Group 3). Applying these groups to the patient cohort, re-planning CT’s were performed in Group 1- 8/68 (11.8%), Group 2- 4/28 (14.3%), Group 3- 13/25 (52%). Conclusion: In this series, patients with VMHNC and nodal size > 46mm appear to be a high-risk group for the need of plan adaptation during a course of definitive radiotherapy. This finding will now be tested in a prospective adaptive radiotherapy study.

Adaptive stepsize based on control theory for stochastic differential equations

The numerical solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been focused recently on the development of numerical methods with good stability and order properties. These numerical implementations have been made with fixed stepsize, but there are many situations when a fixed stepsize is not appropriate. In the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations, much work has been carried out on developing robust implementation techniques using variable stepsize. It has been necessary, in the deterministic case, to consider the "best" choice for an initial stepsize, as well as developing effective strategies for stepsize control-the same, of course, must be carried out in the stochastic case. In this paper, proportional integral (PI) control is applied to a variable stepsize implementation of an embedded pair of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods used to obtain numerical solutions of nonstiff SDEs. For stiff SDEs, the embedded pair of the balanced Milstein and balanced implicit method is implemented in variable stepsize mode using a predictive controller for the stepsize change. The extension of these stepsize controllers from a digital filter theory point of view via PI with derivative (PID) control will also be implemented. The implementations show the improvement in efficiency that can be attained when using these control theory approaches compared with the regular stepsize change strategy.

Adaptive teachers embracing new ways of learning with robotics in Chinese schools

In July 2010, China announced the “National Plan for Medium and Long-term Education Reform and Development(2010-2020)” (PRC 2010). The Plan calls for an education system that: • promotes an integrated development which harnesses everyone’s talent; • combines learning and thinking; unifies knowledge and practice; • allows teachers to teach according to individuals’ needs; and • reforms education quality evaluation and personnel evaluation systems focusing on performance including character, knowledge, ability and other factors. This paper discusses the design and implementation of a Professional Learning Program (PLP) undertaken by 432 primary, middle and high school teachers in China. The aim of this initiative was to develop adaptive expertise in using technology that facilitated innovative science and technology teaching and learning as envisaged by the Chinese Ministry of Education’s (2010-2020) education reforms. Key principles derived from literature about professional learning and scaffolding of learning informed the design of the PLP. The analysis of data revealed that the participants had made substantial progress towards the development of adaptive expertise. This was manifested not only by advances in the participants’ repertoires of Subject Matter Knowledge and Pedagogical Content Knowledge but also in changes to their levels of confidence and identities as teachers. It was found that through time the participants had coalesced into a professional learning community that readily engaged in the sharing, peer review, reuse and adaption, and collaborative design of innovative science and technology learning and assessment activities.

Adaptive metering algorithm for electronic commercial vehicle preclearance systems

This paper presents an adaptive metering algorithm for enhancing the electronic screening (e-screening) operation at truck weight stations. This algorithm uses a feedback control mechanism to control the level of truck vehicles entering the weight station. The basic operation of the algorithm allows more trucks to be inspected when the weight station is underutilized by adjusting the weight threshold lower. Alternatively, the algorithm restricts the number of trucks to inspect when the station is overutilized to prevent queue spillover. The proposed control concept is demonstrated and evaluated in a simulation environment. The simulation results demonstrate the considerable benefits of the proposed algorithm in improving overweight enforcement with minimal negative impacts on nonoverweighed trucks. The test results also reveal that the effectiveness of the algorithm improves with higher truck participation rates in the e-screening program.