Impact of climate variability on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province, China

BACKGROUND Malaria remains a public health problem in the remote and poor area of Yunnan Province, China. Yunnan faces an increasing risk of imported malaria infections from Mekong river neighboring countries. This study aimed to identify the high risk area of malaria transmission in Yunnan Province, and to estimate the effects of climatic variability on the transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in the identified area. METHODS We identified spatial clusters of malaria cases using spatial cluster analysis at a county level in Yunnan Province, 2005-2010, and estimated the weekly effects of climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum based on a dataset of daily malaria cases and climatic variables. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the impact of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall up to 10-week lags on both types of malaria parasite after adjusting for seasonal and long-term effects. RESULTS The primary cluster area was identified along the China-Myanmar border in western Yunnan. A 1°C increase in minimum temperature was associated with a lag 4 to 9 weeks relative risk (RR), with the highest effect at lag 7 weeks for P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.05) and 6 weeks for P. falciparum (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04, 1.11); a 10-mm increment in rainfall was associated with RRs of lags 2-4 weeks and 9-10 weeks, with the highest effect at 3 weeks for both P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.04) and P. falciparum (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.06); and the RRs with a 10% rise in relative humidity were significant from lag 3 to 8 weeks with the highest RR of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10, 1.41) for P. vivax at 5-week lag. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the China-Myanmar border is a high risk area for malaria transmission. Climatic factors appeared to be among major determinants of malaria transmission in this area. The estimated lag effects for the association between temperature and malaria are consistent with the life cycles of both mosquito vector and malaria parasite. These findings will be useful for malaria surveillance-response systems in the Mekong river region.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Dimensions and reliability of a hospital safety climate questionnaire in Chinese health-care practice

The aim of the current study was to examine the dimensions and reliability of a hospital safety climate questionnaire in Chinese health-care practice. To achieve this, a cross-sectional survey of health-care professionals was undertaken at a university teaching hospital in Shandong province, China. Our survey instrument demonstrated very high internal consistency, comparing well with previous research in this field conducted in other countries. Factor analysis highlighted four key dimensions of safety climate, which centred on employee personal protection, employee interactions, safetyrelated housekeeping and time pressures. Overall, this study suggests that hospital safety climate represents an important aspect of health-care practice in contemporary China.

The role of common but differentiated responsibility in the 2020 climate regime

The principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) will play a role in the 2020 Climate Regime. This Article starts by examining differential treatment within the international legal order, finding that it is ethically and practically difficult to implement an international climate instrument based on formal equality. There is evidence of state parties accepting differential responsibilities in a number of areas within the international legal order and the embedding of CBDR in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), means that that differential commitments will lie at the heart of the 2020 climate regime. The UNFCCC applies the implementation method of differentiation, while the Kyoto Protocol applies both the obligation and implementation method of differentiation. It is suggested that the implementation model will be the differentiation model retained in the 2020 climate agreement. The Parties’ submissions under the Durban Platform are considered in order to gain an understanding of their positions on CBDR. While there are areas of contention including the role of principles in shaping obligations and the ongoing legal status of Annex I and Non-Annex I distinction, there is broad consensus among the parties in favour of differentiation by implementation with developed and major economies undertaking Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Objectives (economy wide targets) and developing countries that are not major economies undertaking sectoral targets.

Urban Food Security, Urban Resilience and Climate Change

The growing importance of logistics in increasingly globalised production and consumption systems strengthens the case for explicit consideration of the climate risks that may impact on the operation of ports in the future, as well as the formulation of adaptation responses that act to enhance their resilience. Within a logistics chain, seaports are functional nodes of significant strategic importance, and are considered as critical gateways linking local and national supply chains to global markets. However, they are more likely to be exposed to vagaries of climate-related extreme events due to their coastal locations. As such, they need to be adaptive and respond to the projected impacts of climate change, in particular extreme weather events. These impacts are especially important in the logistics context as they could result in varying degrees of business interruption; including business closure in the worst case scenario. Since trans-shipment of freight for both the import and export of goods and raw materials has a significant impact on Australia’s sustained economic growth it was considered important to undertake a study of port functional assets, to assess their vulnerability to climate change, to model the potential impacts of climate-related extreme events, and to highlight possible adaptation responses.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Food Production and Export

The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.

Food security in Australia in an era of neoliberalism, productivism and climate change

For over 150 years Australia has exported bulk, undifferentiated, commodities such as wool, wheat, meat and sugar to the UK and more recently to Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. It is estimated that, each year, Australia's farming system feeds a domestic population of some 22 million people, while exporting enough food to feed another 40 million. With the Australian population expected to double in the next 40 years, and with the anticipated growth in the world's population to reach a level of some 9 billion (from its present level of 7 billion) in the same period, there are strong incentives for an expansion of food production in Australia. Neoliberal settings are encouraging this expansion at the same time as they are facilitating importation of foods, higher levels of foreign direct investment and the commoditisation of resources (such as water). Yet, expansion in food production – and in an era of climate change – will continue to compromise the environment. After discussing Australia's neoliberal framework and its relation to farming, this paper outlines how Australia is attempting to address the issue of food security. It argues that productivist farming approaches that are favoured by both industry and government are proving incapable of bringing about long-term production outcomes that will guarantee national food security.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Projecting future transmission of malaria under climate change scenarios : challenges and research needs

There has been an intense debate about climatic impacts on the transmission of malaria. It is vitally important to accurately project future impacts of climate change on malaria to support effective policy–making and intervention activity concerning malaria control and prevention. This paper critically reviewed the published literature and examined both key findings and methodological issues in projecting future impacts of climate change on malaria transmission. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases MEDLINE, Web of Science and PubMed. The projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission were spatially heterogeneous and somewhat inconsistent. The variation in results may be explained by the interaction of climatic factors and malaria transmission cycles, variations in projection frameworks and uncertainties of future socioecological (including climate) changes. Current knowledge gaps are identified, future research directions are proposed and public health implications are assessed. Improving the understanding of the dynamic effects of climate on malaria transmission cycles, the advancement of modelling techniques and the incorporation of uncertainties in future socioecological changes are critical factors for projecting the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.

Towards networked governance : improving interagency communication and collaboration for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in Australia

Major disasters, such as bushfires or floods, place significant stress on scarce public resources. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this stress. An integrated approach to disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) could reduce the stress by encouraging the more efficient use of pooled resources and expertise. A comparative analysis of three extreme climate-related events that occurred in Australia between 2009 and 2011 indicated that a strategy to improve interagency communication and collaboration would be a key factor in this type of policy/planning integration. These findings are in accord with the concepts of Joined-up Government and Network Governance. Five key reforms are proposed: developing a shared policy vision; adopting multi-level planning; integrating legislation; networking organisations; and establishing cooperative funding. These reforms are examined with reference to the related research literature in order to identify potential problems associated with their implementation. The findings are relevant for public policy generally but are particularly useful for CCA and DRM.

Climate change and children’s health : a call for research on what works to protect children

Climate change is affecting and will increasingly influence human health and wellbeing. Children are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. An extensive literature review regarding the impact of climate change on children’s health was conducted in April 2012 by searching electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science, as well as relevant websites, such as IPCC and WHO. Climate change affects children’s health through increased air pollution, more weather-related disasters, more frequent and intense heat waves, decreased water quality and quantity, food shortage and greater exposure to toxicants. As a result, children experience greater risk of mental disorders, malnutrition, infectious diseases, allergic diseases and respiratory diseases. Mitigation measures like reducing carbon pollution emissions, and adaptation measures such as early warning systems and post-disaster counseling are strongly needed. Future health research directions should focus on: (1) identifying whether climate change impacts on children will be modified by gender, age and socioeconomic status; (2) refining outcome measures of children’s vulnerability to climate change; (3) projecting children’s disease burden under climate change scenarios; (4) exploring children’s disease burden related to climate change in low-income countries, and ; (5) identifying the most cost-effective mitigation and adaptation actions from a children’s health perspective.

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes - an improved method of integrating a climate-based classification model with interpolated climate surfaces

Spatially-explicit modelling of grassland classes is important to site-specific planning for improving grassland and environmental management over large areas. In this study, a climate-based grassland classification model, the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) was integrated with spatially interpolated climate data to classify grassland in Gansu province, China. The study area is characterized by complex topographic features imposed by plateaus, high mountains, basins and deserts. To improve the quality of the interpolated climate data and the quality of the spatial classification over this complex topography, three linear regression methods, namely an analytic method based on multiple regression and residues (AMMRR), a modification of the AMMRR method through adding the effect of slope and aspect to the interpolation analysis (M-AMMRR) and a method which replaces the IDW approach for residue interpolation in M-AMMRR with an ordinary kriging approach (I-AMMRR), for interpolating climate variables were evaluated. The interpolation outcomes from the best interpolation method were then used in the CSCS model to classify the grassland in the study area. Climate variables interpolated included the annual cumulative temperature and annual total precipitation. The results indicated that the AMMRR and M-AMMRR methods generated acceptable climate surfaces but the best model fit and cross validation result were achieved by the I-AMMRR method. Twenty-six grassland classes were classified for the study area. The four grassland vegetation classes that covered more than half of the total study area were "cool temperate-arid temperate zonal semi-desert", "cool temperate-humid forest steppe and deciduous broad-leaved forest", "temperate-extra-arid temperate zonal desert", and "frigid per-humid rain tundra and alpine meadow". The vegetation classification map generated in this study provides spatial information on the locations and extents of the different grassland classes. This information can be used to facilitate government agencies' decision-making in land-use planning and environmental management, and for vegetation and biodiversity conservation. The information can also be used to assist land managers in the estimation of safe carrying capacities which will help to prevent overgrazing and land degradation.

Taboo Texts and Troubling Silences: How Textual Choices Coconstruct a Positive School Climate for Same-Sex- Attracted Students

This paper offers insights into the relationship between curriculum decision making, positive school climate, and academic achievement for same-sex attracted (SSA) students. The authors use critical discourse analysis to present a ‘conversation’ between six same-sex attracted young people, aged 14-19, and three pop-culture texts currently popular with both teachers and school-aged peers: The Hunger Games, Tomorrow When the War Began, and Neighbours. Analysis starts from the perspective that schools are empowered agents in the production of students’ sexualised identities and seeks to understand how textual choices function as active discourse in that production. Through this analysis, an argument is made for expanding notions of what it means to ‘attend to’ gender and sexuality through textual choice and critical pedagogy.

Sustainable Urban Water Environment : Climate, Pollution and Adaptation

"This multi-disciplinary book provides practical solutions for safeguarding the sustainability of the urban water environment. Firstly, the importance of the urban water environment is highlighted and the major problems urban water bodies face and strategies to safeguard the water environment are explored. Secondly, the diversity of pollutants entering the water environment through stormwater runoff are discussed and modelling approaches for factoring in climate change and future urban and transport scenarios are proposed. Thirdly, by linking the concepts of sustainable urban ecosystems and sustainable urban and transport development, capabilities of two urban sustainability assessment models are demonstrated."--publisher website