Bayesian indirect inference using a parametric auxiliary model

Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such an approach has been well explored in the classical literature but has received substantially less attention in the Bayesian paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast a collection of what we call parametric Bayesian indirect inference (pBII) methods. One class of pBII methods uses approximate Bayesian computation (referred to here as ABC II) where the summary statistic is formed on the basis of the auxiliary model, using ideas from II. Another approach proposed in the literature, referred to here as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL), we show to be a fundamentally different approach to ABC II. We devise new theoretical results for pBIL to give extra insights into its behaviour and also its differences with ABC II. Furthermore, we examine in more detail the assumptions required to use each pBII method. The results, insights and comparisons developed in this paper are illustrated on simple examples and two other substantive applications. The first of the substantive examples involves performing inference for complex quantile distributions based on simulated data while the second is for estimating the parameters of a trivariate stochastic process describing the evolution of macroparasites within a host based on real data. We create a novel framework called Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) which encompasses pBII as well as general ABC methods so that the connections between the methods can be established.

Development and evaluation of a program to improve clinician and patient communication during a telehealth consultation : C.R.I.S.P. Telehealth

Introduction: The delivery of health care in the 21st century will look like no other in the past. The fast paced technological advances that are being made will need to transition from the information age into clinical practice. The phenomenon of e-Health is the over-arching form of information technology and telehealth is one arm of that phenomenon. The uptake of telehealth both in Australia and overseas, has changed the face of health service delivery to many rural and remote communities for the better, removing what is known as the tyranny of distance. Many studies have evaluated the satisfaction and cost-benefit analysis of telehealth across the organisational aspects as well as the various adaptations of clinical pathways and this is the predominant focus of most studies published to date. However, whilst comments have been made by many researchers about the need to improve and attend to the communication and relationship building aspects of telehealth no studies have examined this further. The aim of this study was to identify the patient and clinician experiences, concerns, behaviours and perceptions of the telehealth interaction and develop a training tool to assist these clinicians to improve their interaction skills. Methods: A mixed methods design combining quantitative (survey analysis and data coding) and qualitative (interview analysis) approaches was adopted. This study utilised four phases to firstly qualitatively explore the needs of clients (patients) and clinicians within a telehealth consultation then designed, developed, piloted and quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated the telehealth communication training program. Qualitative data was collected and analysed during Phase 1 of this study to describe and define the missing 'communication and rapport building' aspects within telehealth. This data was then utilised to develop a self-paced communication training program that enhanced clinicians existing skills, which comprised of Phase 2 of this study to develop the interactive program. Phase 3 included evaluating the training program with 26 clinicians and results were recorded pre and post training, whilst phase 4 was the pilot for future recommendations of this training program using a patient group within a Queensland Health setting at two rural hospitals. Results: Comparisons of pre and post training data on 1) Effective communication styles, 2) Involvement in communication training package, 3) satisfaction pre and post training, and 4) health outcomes pre and post training indicated that there were differences between pre and post training in relation to effective communication style, increased satisfaction and no difference in health outcomes between pre and post training for this patient group. The post training results revealed over half of the participants (N= 17, 65%) were more responsive to non-verbal cues and were better able to reflect and respond to looks of anxiousness and confusion from a 'patient' within a telehealth consultation. It was also found that during post training evaluations, clinicians had enhanced their therapeutic communication with greater detail to their own body postures, eye contact and presentation. There was greater time spent looking at the 'patient' with an increase of 35 second intervals of direct eye contact and less time spent looking down at paperwork which decreased by 20 seconds. Overall 73% of the clinicians were satisfied with the training program and 61% strongly agreed that they recognised areas of their communication that needed improving during a telehealth consultation. For the patient group there was significant difference post training in rapport with a mean score from 42 (SD = 28, n = 27) to 48 (SD = 5.9, n = 24). For communication comfort of the patient group there was a significant difference between the pre and post training scores t(10) = 27.9, p = .002, which meant that overall the patients felt less inhibited whilst talking to the clinicians and more understood. Conclusion: The aim of this study was to explore the characteristics of good patient-clinician communication and unmet training needs for telehealth consultations. The study developed a training program that was specific for telehealth consultations and not dependent on a 'trainer' to deliver the content. In light of the existing literature this is a first of its kind and a valuable contribution to the research on this topic. It was found that the training program was effective in improving the clinician's communication style and increased the satisfaction of patient's within an e-health environment. This study has identified some historical myths that telehealth cannot be part of empathic patient centred care due to its technology tag.

Electrochemical detection of dopamine and cytochrome c at a nanostructured gold electrode

A nanostructured gold surface consisting of closely packed outwardly growing spikes is investigated for the electrochemical detection of dopamine and cytochrome c. A significant electrocatalytic effect for the electrooxidation of both dopamine and ascorbic acid at the nanostructured electrode was found due to the presence of surface active sites which allowed the detection of dopamine in the presence of excess ascorbic acid to be achieved by differential pulse voltammetry. By simple modification with a layer of Nafion, the enhanced electrocatalytic properties of the nanostructured surface was maintained while increasing the selectivity of dopamine detection in the presence of interfering species such as excess ascorbic and uric acids. Also, upon modification of the nanostructured surface with a monolayer of cysteine, the electrochemical response of immobilised cytochrome c in two distinct conformations was observed. This opens up the possibility of using such a nanostructured surface for the characterisation of other biomolecules and in bio-electroanalytical applications.

Hepatitis C, mental health and equity of access to antiviral therapy : a systematic narrative review

Introduction Access to hepatitis C (hereafter HCV) antiviral therapy has commonly excluded populations with mental health and substance use disorders because they were considered as having contraindications to treatment, particularly due to the neuropsychiatric effects of interferon that can occur in some patients. In this review we examined access to HCV interferon antiviral therapy by populations with mental health and substance use problems to identify the evidence and reasons for exclusion. Methods We searched the following major electronic databases for relevant articles: PsycINFO, Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria comprised studies of adults aged 18 years and older, peer-reviewed articles, date range of (2002--2012) to include articles since the introduction of pegylated interferon with ribarvirin, and English language. The exclusion criteria included articles about HCV populations with medical co-morbidities, such as hepatitis B (hereafter HBV) and human immunodeficiency virus (hereafter HIV), because the clinical treatment, pathways and psychosocial morbidity differ from populations with only HCV. We identified 182 articles, and of these 13 met the eligibility criteria. Using an approach of systematic narrative review we identified major themes in the literature. Results Three main themes were identified including: (1) pre-treatment and preparation for antiviral therapy, (2) adherence and treatment completion, and (3) clinical outcomes. Each of these themes was critically discussed in terms of access by patients with mental health and substance use co-morbidities demonstrating that current research evidence clearly demonstrates that people with HCV, mental health and substance use co-morbidities have similar clinical outcomes to those without these co-morbidities. Conclusions While research evidence is largely supportive of increased access to interferon by people with HCV, mental health and substance use co-morbidities, there is substantial further work required to translate evidence into clinical practice. Further to this, we conclude that a reconsideration of the appropriateness of the tertiary health service model of care for interferon management is required and exploration of the potential for increased HCV care in primary health care settings.

A phase III trial of docetaxel/carboplatin versus mitomycin C/ifosfamide/ cisplatin (MIC) or mitomycin C/vinblastine/cisplatin (MVP) in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer : a randomised multicentre trial of the British Thoracic Oncology Group (BTOG1)

Background: Phase III studies suggest that non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with cisplatin-docetaxel may have higher response rates and better survival compared with other platinum-based regimens. We report the final results of a randomised phase III study of docetaxel and carboplatin versus MIC or MVP in patients with advanced NSCLC. Patients and methods: Patients with biopsy proven stage III-IV NSCLC not suitable for curative surgery or radiotherapy were randomised to receive four cycles of either DCb (docetaxel 75 mg/m 2, carboplatin AUC 6), or MIC/MVP (mitomycin 6 mg/m 2, ifosfamide 3 g/m 2 and cisplatin 50 mg/m 2 or mitomycin 6 mg/ m 2, vinblastine 6 mg/m 2 and cisplatin 50 mg/m 2, respectively), 3 weekly. The primary end point was survival, secondary end points included response rates, toxicity and quality of life. Results: The median follow-up was 17.4 months. Overall response rate was 32% for both arms (partial response = 31%, complete response = 1%); 32% of MIC/MVP and 26% of DCb patients had stable disease. One-year survival was 39% and 35% for DCb and MIC/MVP, respectively. Two-year survival was 13% with both arms. Grade 3/4 neutropenia (74% versus 43%, P < 0.005), infection (18% versus 9%, P = 0.01) and mucositis (5% versus 1%, P = 0.02) were more common with DCb than MIC/MVP. The MIC/MVP arm had significant worsening in overall EORTC score and global health status whereas the DCb arm showed no significant change. Conclusions: The combination of DCb had similar efficacy to MIC/MVP but quality of life was better maintained. © 2006 European Society for Medical Oncology.

A phase II study of mitomycin C and oral etoposide for advanced adenocarcinoma of the upper gastrointestinal tract

Background: Mitomycin C and etoposide have both demonstrated activity against gastric carcinoma. Etoposide is a topoisomerase II inhibitor with evidence for phase-specific and schedule-dependent activity. Patients and method. Twenty-eight consecutive patients with advanced upper gastrointestinal adenocarcinoma were treated with intravenous (i.v.) bolus mitomycin C 6 mg/m2 on day 1 every 21 days to a maximum of four courses. Oral etoposide capsules 50 mg b.i.d. (or 35 mg b.i.d. liquid) were administered days 1 to 10 extending to 14 days in subsequent courses if absolute neutrophil count >1.5 x 109/l on day 14 of first course, for up to six courses. Results: Twenty-six patients were assessed for response of whom 12 had measurable disease and 14 evaluable disease. Four patients had a documented response (one complete remission, three partial remissions) with an objective response rate of 15% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4%-35%). Eight patients had stable disease and 14 progressive disease. The median survival was six months. The schedule was well tolerated with no treatment-related deaths. Nine patients experienced leucopenia (seven grade II and two grade III). Nausea and vomiting (eight grade II, one grade III), fatigue (eight grade II, two grade III) and anaemia (seven grade II, two grade III) were the predominant toxicities. Conclusion: This out-patient schedule is well tolerated and shows modest activity in the treatment of advanced upper gastrointestinal adenocarcinoma. Further studies using protracted schedules of etoposide both orally and as infusional treatment should be developed.

bcl-2 and c-erbB-2 proteins are involved in the regulation of VEGF and of thymidine phosphorylase angiogenic activity in non-small-cell lung cancer

Tumour angiogenesis has been recently recognised as one of the most important prognostic factors in lung cancer. Although a variety of angiogenic factors have been identified, the angiogenesis process remains poorly understood. Bcl-2, c-erbB-2 and p53 are well-known oncogenes involved in non- small-cell lung cancer pathogenesis. A direct correlation of thymidine phosphorylase (TP) and of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) with intratumoural angiogenesis has been reported. In the present study we investigated the possible regulatory role if bcl-2, c-erB-2 proteins in angiogenesis and in VEGF and TP expression in non-small-cell lung cancer. Two hundred sixteen specimens from T1,2-NO, 1 staged patients treated with surgery alone were immunohistochemically examined. Bcl-2 and c-erbB-2 were significantly inversely related to each other (P = 0.04) and both were inversely associated with microvessel density (P < 0.02). High TP and VEGF reactivity was statistically related to loss of bcl-2 expression (P < 0.01). A significant co-expression of c-erbB-2 with TP was noted (P = 0.01). However, TP expression was related to high angiogenesis only in cases with absence of c-erB-2 expression (P < 0.0001). c-erbB-2 expression in poorly vascularised tumours was linked with poor outcome (P = 0.03). The present study provides strong evidence that the bcl-2 gene has a suppressive function over genes involved in both angiogenesis (VEGF and TP) and cell migration (c- erbB-2) in NSCLC. TP and c-erbB-2 proteins are significantly, and often simultaneously, expressed in bcl-2 negative cases. However, expression of the c-erbB-2 abolishes the TP-related angiogenic activity. Whether this is a result of a direct activity of the c-erbB-2 protein or a consequence of a c- erbB-2-related immune response remains to be further investigated.

Monitoring the price and affordability of foods and diets globally

Food prices and food affordability are important determinants of food choices, obesity and non-communicable diseases. As governments around the world consider policies to promote the consumption of healthier foods, data on the relative price and affordability of foods, with a particular focus on the difference between ‘less healthy’ and ‘healthy’ foods and diets, are urgently needed. This paper briefly reviews past and current approaches to monitoring food prices, and identifies key issues affecting the development of practical tools and methods for food price data collection, analysis and reporting. A step-wise monitoring framework, including measurement indicators, is proposed. ‘Minimal’ data collection will assess the differential price of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ foods; ‘expanded’ monitoring will assess the differential price of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ diets; and the ‘optimal’ approach will also monitor food affordability, by taking into account household income. The monitoring of the price and affordability of ‘healthy’ and ‘less healthy’ foods and diets globally will provide robust data and benchmarks to inform economic and fiscal policy responses. Given the range of methodological, cultural and logistical challenges in this area, it is imperative that all aspects of the proposed monitoring framework are tested rigorously before implementation.

INFORMAS (International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support) : overview and key principles

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) dominate disease burdens globally and poor nutrition increasingly contributes to this global burden. Comprehensive monitoring of food environments, and evaluation of the impact of public and private sector policies on food environments is needed to strengthen accountability systems to reduce NCDs. The International Network for Food and Obesity/NCDs Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS) is a global network of public-interest organizations and researchers that aims to monitor, benchmark and support public and private sector actions to create healthy food environments and reduce obesity, NCDs and their related inequalities. The INFORMAS framework includes two ‘process’ modules, that monitor the policies and actions of the public and private sectors, seven ‘impact’ modules that monitor the key characteristics of food environments and three ‘outcome’ modules that monitor dietary quality, risk factors and NCD morbidity and mortality. Monitoring frameworks and indicators have been developed for 10 modules to provide consistency, but allowing for stepwise approaches (‘minimal’, ‘expanded’, ‘optimal’) to data collection and analysis. INFORMAS data will enable benchmarking of food environments between countries, and monitoring of progress over time within countries. Through monitoring and benchmarking, INFORMAS will strengthen the accountability systems needed to help reduce the burden of obesity, NCDs and their related inequalities.

Monitoring policy and actions on food environments : rationale and outline of the INFORMAS policy engagement and communication strategies

The International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS) proposes to collect performance indicators on food policies, actions and environments related to obesity and non-communicable diseases. This paper reviews existing communications strategies used for performance indicators and proposes the approach to be taken for INFORMAS. Twenty-seven scoring and rating tools were identified in various fields of public health including alcohol, tobacco, physical activity, infant feeding and food environments. These were compared based on the types of indicators used and how they were quantified, scoring methods, presentation and the communication and reporting strategies used. There are several implications of these analyses for INFORMAS: the ratings/benchmarking approach is very commonly used, presumably because it is an effective way to communicate progress and stimulate action, although this has not been formally evaluated; the tools used must be trustworthy, pragmatic and policy-relevant; multiple channels of communication will be needed; communications need to be tailored and targeted to decision-makers; data and methods should be freely accessible. The proposed communications strategy for INFORMAS has been built around these lessons to ensure that INFORMAS's outputs have the greatest chance of being used to improve food environments.

Monitoring and benchmarking government policies and actions to improve the healthiness of food environments : a proposed Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index

Government action is essential to increase the healthiness of food environments and reduce obesity, diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and their related inequalities. This paper proposes a monitoring framework to assess government policies and actions for creating healthy food environments. Recommendations from relevant authoritative organizations and expert advisory groups for reducing obesity and NCDs were examined, and pertinent components were incorporated into a comprehensive framework for monitoring government policies and actions. A Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI) was developed, which comprises a ‘policy’ component with seven domains on specific aspects of food environments, and an ‘infrastructure support’ component with seven domains to strengthen systems to prevent obesity and NCDs. These were revised through a week-long consultation process with international experts. Examples of good practice statements are proposed within each domain, and these will evolve into benchmarks established by governments at the forefront of creating and implementing food policies for good health. A rating process is proposed to assess a government's level of policy implementation towards good practice. The Food-EPI will be pre-tested and piloted in countries of varying size and income levels. The benchmarking of government policy implementation has the potential to catalyse greater action to reduce obesity and NCDs.

A proposed approach to monitor private-sector policies and practices related to food environments, obesity and non-communicable disease prevention

Private-sector organizations play a critical role in shaping the food environments of individuals and populations. However, there is currently very limited independent monitoring of private-sector actions related to food environments. This paper reviews previous efforts to monitor the private sector in this area, and outlines a proposed approach to monitor private-sector policies and practices related to food environments, and their influence on obesity and non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention. A step-wise approach to data collection is recommended, in which the first (‘minimal’) step is the collation of publicly available food and nutrition-related policies of selected private-sector organizations. The second (‘expanded’) step assesses the nutritional composition of each organization's products, their promotions to children, their labelling practices, and the accessibility, availability and affordability of their products. The third (‘optimal’) step includes data on other commercial activities that may influence food environments, such as political lobbying and corporate philanthropy. The proposed approach will be further developed and piloted in countries of varying size and income levels. There is potential for this approach to enable national and international benchmarking of private-sector policies and practices, and to inform efforts to hold the private sector to account for their role in obesity and NCD prevention.

Monitoring the levels of important nutrients in the food supply

A food supply that delivers energy-dense products with high levels of salt, saturated fats and trans fats, in large portion sizes, is a major cause of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The highly processed foods produced by large food corporations are primary drivers of increases in consumption of these adverse nutrients. The objective of this paper is to present an approach to monitoring food composition that can both document the extent of the problem and underpin novel actions to address it. The monitoring approach seeks to systematically collect information on high-level contextual factors influencing food composition and assess the energy density, salt, saturated fat, trans fats and portion sizes of highly processed foods for sale in retail outlets (with a focus on supermarkets and quick-service restaurants). Regular surveys of food composition are proposed across geographies and over time using a pragmatic, standardized methodology. Surveys have already been undertaken in several high- and middle-income countries, and the trends have been valuable in informing policy approaches. The purpose of collecting data is not to exhaustively document the composition of all foods in the food supply in each country, but rather to provide information to support governments, industry and communities to develop and enact strategies to curb food-related NCDs.

Monitoring food and non-alcoholic beverage promotions to children

Food and non-alcoholic beverage marketing is recognized as an important factor influencing food choices related to non-communicable diseases. The monitoring of populations' exposure to food and non-alcoholic beverage promotions, and the content of these promotions, is necessary to generate evidence to understand the extent of the problem, and to determine appropriate and effective policy responses. A review of studies measuring the nature and extent of exposure to food promotions was conducted to identify approaches to monitoring food promotions via dominant media platforms. A step-wise approach, comprising ‘minimal’, ‘expanded’ and ‘optimal’ monitoring activities, was designed. This approach can be used to assess the frequency and level of exposure of population groups (especially children) to food promotions, the persuasive power of techniques used in promotional communications (power of promotions) and the nutritional composition of promoted food products. Detailed procedures for data sampling, data collection and data analysis for a range of media types are presented, as well as quantifiable measurement indicators for assessing exposure to and power of food and non-alcoholic beverage promotions. The proposed framework supports the development of a consistent system for monitoring food and non-alcoholic beverage promotions for comparison between countries and over time.