Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Defining the public values in airport development decision-making

Residents, businesses, local, state and national government stakeholders all want to have their say when airports expand or develop. While stakeholder engagement is increasingly a strategy employed for managing the tensions attracted to airport development, different stakeholders have different expectations and demands of airports. This requires different approaches to stakeholder engagement. Identifying the public values that are at stake in developing airports provides an initial step towards building a platform for selecting and applying stakeholder engagement strategies in airport and more general infrastructure contexts. -------- This paper uses the existing literature of public values to build a general typology of public values for the stakeholders of airport development. A range of semi-privatised and state owned airport case studies from Europe have been used to demonstrate the universal nature of the identified values. The result is a framework that identifies both the substantive and procedural values, separated into local, state/regional and national levels of interest. The typology provides a generalised view of public values in airport development; however, the public values identified may be limited to more western oriented societies due to the skew of airport cases reviewed. --------- Contributions are made to the literature with a typology of public values derived from existing knowledge and explored using empirical case examples. The provided typology enables research of airport development decision-making to delineate public values both within and between stakeholder groups, and helps to explain the different perspectives that stakeholders have towards airport development. Future research may focus on refining the typology for different types of airport governance structures, such as differences between public values in state and market-led airport development; include more airport cases from eastern societies to draw parallels or differences between western and eastern societies; or utilise the typology as a framework for analysing changes in public values of airports over time.

Cities in the airports 'shadow' : underlying interests and discretionary power in airport-region development

The previously distinct boundary between airports and their cities has become increasingly blurred as new interests and actors are identified as important stakeholders in the decision making process. As a consequence airport entities are more than ever seeking an integrated existence with their surrounding regions. While current planning strategies provide insights on how to improve and leverage land use planning in and around airports, emerging challenges for implementing and protecting these planning ideals stem from the governance shadows of development decisions. The thesis of this paper is that improving the identification, articulation and consideration of city and airport interests in the development approval process (between planning and implementation) can help avoid outcomes that hinder the ability of cities and their airports to meet their separate/mutual long-term objectives. By applying a network governance perspective to the pilot case study of Brisbane, analysis of overlapping and competing actor interests show how different governance arrangements facilitate (or impede) decision making that protects sustainable ‘airport region’ development. ---------- Contributions are made to airport and city development decision makers through the identification and analysis of effective and ineffective decision making pathways, and to governance literature by way of forwarding empirically derived frameworks for showing how actors protect their interests in the ‘crowded decision making domain’ of airport region development. This work was carried out through the Airport Metropolis Research Project under the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Projects funding scheme (LP0775225).

“Filling out the forms was a nightmare” : project evaluation and the reflective practitioner in community theatre in contemporary Northern Ireland

Since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, large sums have been invested in community theatre projects in Northern Ireland, in the interests of conflict transformation and peace building. While this injection of funds has resulted in an unprecedented level of applied theatre activity, opportunities to maximise learning from this activity are being missed. It is generally assumed that project evaluation is undertaken at least partly to assess the degree of success of projects against important social objectives, with a view to learning what works, what does not, and what might work in the future. However, three ethnographic case studies of organisations delivering applied theatre projects in Northern Ireland indicate that current processes used to evaluate such projects are both flawed and inadequate for this purpose. Practitioners report that the administrative work involved in applying for and justifying funding is onerous, burdensome, and occurs at the expense of artistic activity. This is a very real concern when the time and effort devoted to ‘filling out the forms’ does not ultimately result in useful evaluative information. There are strong disincentives for organisations to report honestly on their experiences of difficulties, or undesirable impacts of projects, and this problem is not transcended by the use of external evaluators. Current evaluation processes provide little opportunity to capture unexpected benefits of projects, and small but significant successes which occur in the context of over-ambitious objectives. Little or no attempt is made to assess long-term impacts of projects on communities. Finally, official evaluation mechanisms fail to capture the reflective practice and dialogic analysis of practitioners, which would richly inform future projects. The authors argue that there is a need for clearer lines of communication, and more opportunities for mutual learning, among stakeholders involved in community development. In particular, greater involvement of the higher education sector in partnership with government and non-government agencies could yield significant benefits in terms of optimizing learning from applied theatre project evaluations.

Building climate change resilience and adaptive capacity in Australia’s community sector using social media and technology innovation

Public and private sector organisations worldwide are putting strategies in place to manage the commercial and operational risks of climate change. However, community organisations are lagging behind in their understanding and preparedness, despite them being among the most exposed to the effects of climate change impacts and regulation. This poster presents a proposal for a multidisciplinary study that addresses this issue by developing, testing and applying a novel climate risk assessment methodology that is tailored to the needs of Australia’s community sector and its clients. Strategies to mitigate risks and build resilience and adaptive capacity will be identified including new opportunities afforded by urban informatics, social media, and technologies of scale making.

Bayesian hybrid algorithms and models : implementation and associated issues

This thesis addresses computational challenges arising from Bayesian analysis of complex real-world problems. Many of the models and algorithms designed for such analysis are ‘hybrid’ in nature, in that they are a composition of components for which their individual properties may be easily described but the performance of the model or algorithm as a whole is less well understood. The aim of this research project is to after a better understanding of the performance of hybrid models and algorithms. The goal of this thesis is to analyse the computational aspects of hybrid models and hybrid algorithms in the Bayesian context. The first objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid models, notably a continuous finite mixture of t-distributions. In the mixture model, an inference of interest is the number of components, as this may relate to both the quality of model fit to data and the computational workload. The analysis of t-mixtures using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is described and the model is compared to the Normal case based on the goodness of fit. Through simulation studies, it is demonstrated that the t-mixture model can be more flexible and more parsimonious in terms of number of components, particularly for skewed and heavytailed data. The study also reveals important computational issues associated with the use of t-mixtures, which have not been adequately considered in the literature. The second objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid algorithms for Bayesian analysis. Two approaches will be considered: a formal comparison of the performance of a range of hybrid algorithms and a theoretical investigation of the performance of one of these algorithms in high dimensions. For the first approach, the delayed rejection algorithm, the pinball sampler, the Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm, and the hybrid version of the population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm are selected as a set of examples of hybrid algorithms. Statistical literature shows how statistical efficiency is often the only criteria for an efficient algorithm. In this thesis the algorithms are also considered and compared from a more practical perspective. This extends to the study of how individual algorithms contribute to the overall efficiency of hybrid algorithms, and highlights weaknesses that may be introduced by the combination process of these components in a single algorithm. The second approach to considering computational aspects of hybrid algorithms involves an investigation of the performance of the PMC in high dimensions. It is well known that as a model becomes more complex, computation may become increasingly difficult in real time. In particular the importance sampling based algorithms, including the PMC, are known to be unstable in high dimensions. This thesis examines the PMC algorithm in a simplified setting, a single step of the general sampling, and explores a fundamental problem that occurs in applying importance sampling to a high-dimensional problem. The precision of the computed estimate from the simplified setting is measured by the asymptotic variance of the estimate under conditions on the importance function. Additionally, the exponential growth of the asymptotic variance with the dimension is demonstrated and we illustrates that the optimal covariance matrix for the importance function can be estimated in a special case.

Enhancing the experience of public transport users with urban screens and mobile applications

Public transportation is an environment with great potential for applying location-based services through mobile devices. This paper provides the underpinning rationale for research that will be looking at how the real-time passenger information system deployed by the Translink Transit Authority across all of South East Queensland in Australia can provide a core platform to improve commuters’ user experiences. This system relies on mobile computing and GPS technology to provide accurate information on transport vehicle locations. The proposal builds on this platform to inform the design and development of innovative social media, mobile computing and geospatial information applications. The core aim is to digitally augment the public transport environment to enhance the user experience of commuters for a more enjoyable journey.

Academic rigour in science assessment tasks

The critical problem of student disengagement and underachievement in the middle years of schooling (Years 4 . 9) has focussed attention on the quality of educational programs in schools, in Australia and elsewhere. The loss of enthusiasm for science in the middle years is particularly problematic given the growing demand for science professionals. Reshaping middle years programs has included an emphasis on integrating Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and improving assessment practices to engage students in higher cognitive processes and enhance academic rigour. Understanding the nature of academic rigour and how to embed it in students. science assessment tasks that incorporate the use of ICTs could enable teachers to optimise the quality of the learning environment. However, academic rigour is not clearly described or defined in the literature and there is little empirical evidence upon which researchers and teachers could draw to enhance understandings. This study used a collective case study design to explore teachers' understandings of academic rigour within science assessment tasks. The research design is based on a conceptual framework that is underpinned by socio-cultural theory. Three methods were used to collect data from six middle years teachers and their students. These methods were a survey, focus group discussion with teachers and a group of students and individual semi-structured interviews with teachers. Findings of the case study revealed six criteria of academic rigour, namely, higher order thinking, alignment, building on prior knowledge, scaffolding, knowledge construction and creativity. Results showed that the middle years teachers held rich understandings of academic rigour that led to effective utilisation of ICTs in science assessment tasks. Findings also indicated that teachers could further enhance their understandings of academic rigour in some aspects of each of the criteria. In particular, this study found that academic rigour could have been further optimised by: promoting more thoughtful discourse and interaction to foster higher order thinking; increasing alignment between curriculum, pedagogy, and assessment, and students. prior knowledge; placing greater emphasis on identifying, activating and building on prior knowledge; better differentiating the level of scaffolding provided and applying it more judiciously; fostering creativity throughout tasks; enhancing teachers‟ content knowledge and pedagogical content knowledge, and providing more in-depth coverage of fewer topics to support knowledge construction. Key contributions of this study are a definition and a model which clarify the nature of academic rigour.

Exponential asymptotics with multiple stokes lines

When asymptotic series methods are applied in order to solve problems that arise in applied mathematics in the limit that some parameter becomes small, they are unable to demonstrate behaviour that occurs on a scale that is exponentially small compared to the algebraic terms of the asymptotic series. There are many examples of physical systems where behaviour on this scale has important effects and, as such, a range of techniques known as exponential asymptotic techniques were developed that may be used to examinine behaviour on this exponentially small scale. Many problems in applied mathematics may be represented by behaviour within the complex plane, which may subsequently be examined using asymptotic methods. These problems frequently demonstrate behaviour known as Stokes phenomenon, which involves the rapid switches of behaviour on an exponentially small scale in the neighbourhood of some curve known as a Stokes line. Exponential asymptotic techniques have been applied in order to obtain an expression for this exponentially small switching behaviour in the solutions to orginary and partial differential equations. The problem of potential flow over a submerged obstacle has been previously considered in this manner by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006). By representing the problem in the complex plane and applying an exponential asymptotic technique, they were able to detect the switching, and subsequent behaviour, of exponentially small waves on the free surface of the flow in the limit of small Froude number, specifically considering the case of flow over a step with one Stokes line present in the complex plane. We consider an extension of this work to flow configurations with multiple Stokes lines, such as flow over an inclined step, or flow over a bump or trench. The resultant expressions are analysed, and demonstrate interesting implications, such as the presence of exponentially sub-subdominant intermediate waves and the possibility of trapped surface waves for flow over a bump or trench. We then consider the effect of multiple Stokes lines in higher order equations, particu- larly investigating the behaviour of higher-order Stokes lines in the solutions to partial differential equations. These higher-order Stokes lines switch off the ordinary Stokes lines themselves, adding a layer of complexity to the overall Stokes structure of the solution. Specifically, we consider the different approaches taken by Howls et al. (2004) and Chap- man & Mortimer (2005) in applying exponential asymptotic techniques to determine the higher-order Stokes phenomenon behaviour in the solution to a particular partial differ- ential equation.

Literacy models across nations : literacy and critical literacy in teacher training programs in India

The thrust towards constructivist learning and critical thinking in the National Curricular Framework (2005) of India implies shifts in pedagogical practices. In this context, drawing on grounded theory, focus group interviews were conducted with 40 preservice teachers to ascertain the contextual situation and the likely outcomes of applying critical literacy across the curriculum. Central themes that emerged in the discussion were: being teacher centred/ learner centred, and conformity/autonomy in teaching and learning. The paper argues that within the present Indian context, while there is scope for changes to pedagogy and learning styles, yet these must be adequately contextualised.

Liking vs. wanting food : importance for human appetite control and weight regulation

Current train of thought in appetite research is favouring an interest in non-homeostatic or hedonic (reward) mechanisms in relation to overconsumption and energy balance. This tendency is supported by advances in neurobiology that precede the emergence of a new conceptual approach to reward where affect and motivation (liking and wanting) can be seen as the major force in guiding human eating behaviour. In this review, current progress in applying processes of liking and wanting to the study of human appetite are examined by discussing the following issues: How can these concepts be operationalised for use in human research to reflect the neural mechanisms by which they may be influenced? Do liking and wanting operate independently to produce functionally significant changes in behaviour? Can liking and wanting be truly experimentally separated or will an expression of one inevitably contain elements of the other? The review contains a re-examination of selected human appetite research before exploring more recent methodological approaches to the study of liking and wanting in appetite control. In addition, some theoretical developments are described in four diverse models that may enhance current understanding of the role of these processes in guiding ingestive behaviour. Finally, the implications of a dual process modulation of food reward for weight gain and obesity are discussed. The review concludes that processes of liking and wanting are likely to have independent roles in characterising susceptibility to weight gain. Further research into the dissociation of liking and wanting through implicit and explicit levels of processing would help to disclose the relative importance of these components of reward for appetite control and weight regulation.

The design and evaluation of a mobile sensor/actuator network for autonomous animal control

This paper investigates a mobile, wireless sensor/actuator network application for use in the cattle breeding industry. Our goal is to prevent fighting between bulls in on-farm breeding paddocks by autonomously applying appropriate stimuli when one bull approaches another bull. This is an important application because fighting between high-value animals such as bulls during breeding seasons causes significant financial loss to producers. Furthermore, there are significant challenges in this type of application because it requires dynamic animal state estimation, real-time actuation and efficient mobile wireless transmissions. We designed and implemented an animal state estimation algorithm based on a state-machine mechanism for each animal. Autonomous actuation is performed based on the estimated states of an animal relative to other animals. A simple, yet effective, wireless communication model has been proposed and implemented to achieve high delivery rates in mobile environments. We evaluated the performance of our design by both simulations and field experiments, which demonstrated the effectiveness of our autonomous animal control system.

Dynamic virtual fences for controlling cows

A virtual fence is created by applying an aversive stimulus to an animal when it approaches a predefined boundary. It is implemented by a small animal-borne computer system with a GPS receiver. This approach allows the implementation of virtual paddocks inside a normal physically-fenced paddock. Since the fence lines are virtual they can be moved by programming to meet the needs of animal or land management. This approach enables us to consider animals as agents with natural mobility that are controllable and to apply a vast body of theory in motion planning. In this paper we describe a herd-animal simulator and physical experiments conducted on a small herd of 10 animals using a Smart Collar. The Smart Collar consists of a GPS, PDA, wireless networking and a sound amplifier. We describe a motion planning algorithm that can move a virtual paddock subject to landscape constraints which is suitable for mustering cows. We present simulation results and data from experiments with 8 cows equipped with Smart Collars.

The use of Creative Commons licensing to enable open access to public sector information and publicly funded research results : an overview of recent Australian developments

This chapter provides an account of the use of Creative Commons (CC) licensing as a legally and operationally effective means by which governments can implement systems to enable open access to and reuse of their public sector information (PSI). It describes the experience of governments in Australia in applying CC licences to PSI in a context where a vast range of material and information produced, collected, commissioned of funded by government is subject to copyright. By applying CC licences, governments can give effect to their open access policies and create a public domain of PSI which is available for resue by other governmental agencies and the community at large.

Explaining usage of process modeling grammars : comparing three theoretical models in the study of two grammars

Our objective was to determine the factors that lead users to continue working with process modeling grammars after their initial adoption. We examined the explanatory power of three theoretical models of IT usage by applying them to two popular process modeling grammars. We found that a hybrid model of technology acceptance and expectation-confirmation best explained user intentions to continue using the grammars. We examined differences in the model results, and used them to provide three contributions. First, the study confirmed the applicability of IT usage models to the domain of process modeling. Second, we discovered that differences in continued usage intentions depended on the grammar type instead of the user characteristics. Third, we suggest implications and practice.