Analysis of linear relationships in block ciphers

This thesis is devoted to the study of linear relationships in symmetric block ciphers. A block cipher is designed so that the ciphertext is produced as a nonlinear function of the plaintext and secret master key. However, linear relationships within the cipher can still exist if the texts and components of the cipher are manipulated in a number of ways, as shown in this thesis. There are four main contributions of this thesis. The first contribution is the extension of the applicability of integral attacks from word-based to bitbased block ciphers. Integral attacks exploit the linear relationship between texts at intermediate stages of encryption. This relationship can be used to recover subkey bits in a key recovery attack. In principle, integral attacks can be applied to bit-based block ciphers. However, specific tools to define the attack on these ciphers are not available. This problem is addressed in this thesis by introducing a refined set of notations to describe the attack. The bit patternbased integral attack is successfully demonstrated on reduced-round variants of the block ciphers Noekeon, Present and Serpent. The second contribution is the discovery of a very small system of equations that describe the LEX-AES stream cipher. LEX-AES is based heavily on the 128-bit-key (16-byte) Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) block cipher. In one instance, the system contains 21 equations and 17 unknown bytes. This is very close to the upper limit for an exhaustive key search, which is 16 bytes. One only needs to acquire 36 bytes of keystream to generate the equations. Therefore, the security of this cipher depends on the difficulty of solving this small system of equations. The third contribution is the proposal of an alternative method to measure diffusion in the linear transformation of Substitution-Permutation-Network (SPN) block ciphers. Currently, the branch number is widely used for this purpose. It is useful for estimating the possible success of differential and linear attacks on a particular SPN cipher. However, the measure does not give information on the number of input bits that are left unchanged by the transformation when producing the output bits. The new measure introduced in this thesis is intended to complement the current branch number technique. The measure is based on fixed points and simple linear relationships between the input and output words of the linear transformation. The measure represents the average fraction of input words to a linear diffusion transformation that are not effectively changed by the transformation. This measure is applied to the block ciphers AES, ARIA, Serpent and Present. It is shown that except for Serpent, the linear transformations used in the block ciphers examined do not behave as expected for a random linear transformation. The fourth contribution is the identification of linear paths in the nonlinear round function of the SMS4 block cipher. The SMS4 block cipher is used as a standard in the Chinese Wireless LAN Wired Authentication and Privacy Infrastructure (WAPI) and hence, the round function should exhibit a high level of nonlinearity. However, the findings in this thesis on the existence of linear relationships show that this is not the case. It is shown that in some exceptional cases, the first four rounds of SMS4 are effectively linear. In these cases, the effective number of rounds for SMS4 is reduced by four, from 32 to 28. The findings raise questions about the security provided by SMS4, and might provide clues on the existence of a flaw in the design of the cipher.

Novel analytical and numerical methods for solving fractional dynamical systems

During the past three decades, the subject of fractional calculus (that is, calculus of integrals and derivatives of arbitrary order) has gained considerable popularity and importance, mainly due to its demonstrated applications in numerous diverse and widespread fields in science and engineering. For example, fractional calculus has been successfully applied to problems in system biology, physics, chemistry and biochemistry, hydrology, medicine, and finance. In many cases these new fractional-order models are more adequate than the previously used integer-order models, because fractional derivatives and integrals enable the description of the memory and hereditary properties inherent in various materials and processes that are governed by anomalous diffusion. Hence, there is a growing need to find the solution behaviour of these fractional differential equations. However, the analytic solutions of most fractional differential equations generally cannot be obtained. As a consequence, approximate and numerical techniques are playing an important role in identifying the solution behaviour of such fractional equations and exploring their applications. The main objective of this thesis is to develop new effective numerical methods and supporting analysis, based on the finite difference and finite element methods, for solving time, space and time-space fractional dynamical systems involving fractional derivatives in one and two spatial dimensions. A series of five published papers and one manuscript in preparation will be presented on the solution of the space fractional diffusion equation, space fractional advectiondispersion equation, time and space fractional diffusion equation, time and space fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a linear or non-linear source term, and fractional cable equation involving two time fractional derivatives, respectively. One important contribution of this thesis is the demonstration of how to choose different approximation techniques for different fractional derivatives. Special attention has been paid to the Riesz space fractional derivative, due to its important application in the field of groundwater flow, system biology and finance. We present three numerical methods to approximate the Riesz space fractional derivative, namely the L1/ L2-approximation method, the standard/shifted Gr¨unwald method, and the matrix transform method (MTM). The first two methods are based on the finite difference method, while the MTM allows discretisation in space using either the finite difference or finite element methods. Furthermore, we prove the equivalence of the Riesz fractional derivative and the fractional Laplacian operator under homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions – a result that had not previously been established. This result justifies the aforementioned use of the MTM to approximate the Riesz fractional derivative. After spatial discretisation, the time-space fractional partial differential equation is transformed into a system of fractional-in-time differential equations. We then investigate numerical methods to handle time fractional derivatives, be they Caputo type or Riemann-Liouville type. This leads to new methods utilising either finite difference strategies or the Laplace transform method for advancing the solution in time. The stability and convergence of our proposed numerical methods are also investigated. Numerical experiments are carried out in support of our theoretical analysis. We also emphasise that the numerical methods we develop are applicable for many other types of fractional partial differential equations.

Analysis of distrubances in large interconnected power systems

World economies increasingly demand reliable and economical power supply and distribution. To achieve this aim the majority of power systems are becoming interconnected, with several power utilities supplying the one large network. One problem that occurs in a large interconnected power system is the regular occurrence of system disturbances which can result in the creation of intra-area oscillating modes. These modes can be regarded as the transient responses of the power system to excitation, which are generally characterised as decaying sinusoids. For a power system operating ideally these transient responses would ideally would have a “ring-down” time of 10-15 seconds. Sometimes equipment failures disturb the ideal operation of power systems and oscillating modes with ring-down times greater than 15 seconds arise. The larger settling times associated with such “poorly damped” modes cause substantial power flows between generation nodes, resulting in significant physical stresses on the power distribution system. If these modes are not just poorly damped but “negatively damped”, catastrophic failures of the system can occur. To ensure system stability and security of large power systems, the potentially dangerous oscillating modes generated from disturbances (such as equipment failure) must be quickly identified. The power utility must then apply appropriate damping control strategies. In power system monitoring there exist two facets of critical interest. The first is the estimation of modal parameters for a power system in normal, stable, operation. The second is the rapid detection of any substantial changes to this normal, stable operation (because of equipment breakdown for example). Most work to date has concentrated on the first of these two facets, i.e. on modal parameter estimation. Numerous modal parameter estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented, but all have limitations [1-13]. One of the key limitations of all existing parameter estimation methods is the fact that they require very long data records to provide accurate parameter estimates. This is a particularly significant problem after a sudden detrimental change in damping. One simply cannot afford to wait long enough to collect the large amounts of data required for existing parameter estimators. Motivated by this gap in the current body of knowledge and practice, the research reported in this thesis focuses heavily on rapid detection of changes (i.e. on the second facet mentioned above). This thesis reports on a number of new algorithms which can rapidly flag whether or not there has been a detrimental change to a stable operating system. It will be seen that the new algorithms enable sudden modal changes to be detected within quite short time frames (typically about 1 minute), using data from power systems in normal operation. The new methods reported in this thesis are summarised below. The Energy Based Detector (EBD): The rationale for this method is that the modal disturbance energy is greater for lightly damped modes than it is for heavily damped modes (because the latter decay more rapidly). Sudden changes in modal energy, then, imply sudden changes in modal damping. Because the method relies on data from power systems in normal operation, the modal disturbances are random. Accordingly, the disturbance energy is modelled as a random process (with the parameters of the model being determined from the power system under consideration). A threshold is then set based on the statistical model. The energy method is very simple to implement and is computationally efficient. It is, however, only able to determine whether or not a sudden modal deterioration has occurred; it cannot identify which mode has deteriorated. For this reason the method is particularly well suited to smaller interconnected power systems that involve only a single mode. Optimal Individual Mode Detector (OIMD): As discussed in the previous paragraph, the energy detector can only determine whether or not a change has occurred; it cannot flag which mode is responsible for the deterioration. The OIMD seeks to address this shortcoming. It uses optimal detection theory to test for sudden changes in individual modes. In practice, one can have an OIMD operating for all modes within a system, so that changes in any of the modes can be detected. Like the energy detector, the OIMD is based on a statistical model and a subsequently derived threshold test. The Kalman Innovation Detector (KID): This detector is an alternative to the OIMD. Unlike the OIMD, however, it does not explicitly monitor individual modes. Rather it relies on a key property of a Kalman filter, namely that the Kalman innovation (the difference between the estimated and observed outputs) is white as long as the Kalman filter model is valid. A Kalman filter model is set to represent a particular power system. If some event in the power system (such as equipment failure) causes a sudden change to the power system, the Kalman model will no longer be valid and the innovation will no longer be white. Furthermore, if there is a detrimental system change, the innovation spectrum will display strong peaks in the spectrum at frequency locations associated with changes. Hence the innovation spectrum can be monitored to both set-off an “alarm” when a change occurs and to identify which modal frequency has given rise to the change. The threshold for alarming is based on the simple Chi-Squared PDF for a normalised white noise spectrum [14, 15]. While the method can identify the mode which has deteriorated, it does not necessarily indicate whether there has been a frequency or damping change. The PPM discussed next can monitor frequency changes and so can provide some discrimination in this regard. The Polynomial Phase Method (PPM): In [16] the cubic phase (CP) function was introduced as a tool for revealing frequency related spectral changes. This thesis extends the cubic phase function to a generalised class of polynomial phase functions which can reveal frequency related spectral changes in power systems. A statistical analysis of the technique is performed. When applied to power system analysis, the PPM can provide knowledge of sudden shifts in frequency through both the new frequency estimate and the polynomial phase coefficient information. This knowledge can be then cross-referenced with other detection methods to provide improved detection benchmarks.

Parents’ self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance when managing atopic dermatitis in children: Instrument reliability and validity

BACKGROUND: Support and education for parents faced with managing a child with atopic dermatitis is crucial to the success of current treatments. Interventions aiming to improve parent management of this condition are promising. Unfortunately, evaluation is hampered by lack of precise research tools to measure change. OBJECTIVES: To develop a suite of valid and reliable research instruments to appraise parents' self-efficacy for performing atopic dermatitis management tasks; outcome expectations of performing management tasks; and self-reported task performance in a community sample of parents of children with atopic dermatitis. METHODS: The Parents' Eczema Management Scale (PEMS) and the Parents' Outcome Expectations of Eczema Management Scale (POEEMS) were developed from an existing self-efficacy scale, the Parental Self-Efficacy with Eczema Care Index (PASECI). Each scale was presented in a single self-administered questionnaire, to measure self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance related to managing child atopic dermatitis. Each was tested with a community sample of parents of children with atopic dermatitis, and psychometric evaluation of the scales' reliability and validity was conducted. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A community-based convenience sample of 120 parents of children with atopic dermatitis completed the self-administered questionnaire. Participants were recruited through schools across Australia. RESULTS: Satisfactory internal consistency and test-retest reliability was demonstrated for all three scales. Construct validity was satisfactory, with positive relationships between self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and general perceived self-efficacy; self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and self-reported task performance; and self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis and outcome expectations. Factor analyses revealed two-factor structures for PEMS and PASECI alike, with both scales containing factors related to performing routine management tasks, and managing the child's symptoms and behaviour. Factor analysis was also applied to POEEMS resulting in a three-factor structure. Factors relating to independent management of atopic dermatitis by the parent, involving healthcare professionals in management, and involving the child in the management of atopic dermatitis were found. Parents' self-efficacy and outcome expectations had a significant influence on self-reported task performance. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that PEMS and POEEMS are valid and reliable instruments worthy of further psychometric evaluation. Likewise, validity and reliability of PASECI was confirmed.

Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Performance analysis of adaptive lattice filters for FM signals and alpha-stable processes

The performance of an adaptive filter may be studied through the behaviour of the optimal and adaptive coefficients in a given environment. This thesis investigates the performance of finite impulse response adaptive lattice filters for two classes of input signals: (a) frequency modulated signals with polynomial phases of order p in complex Gaussian white noise (as nonstationary signals), and (b) the impulsive autoregressive processes with alpha-stable distributions (as non-Gaussian signals). Initially, an overview is given for linear prediction and adaptive filtering. The convergence and tracking properties of the stochastic gradient algorithms are discussed for stationary and nonstationary input signals. It is explained that the stochastic gradient lattice algorithm has many advantages over the least-mean square algorithm. Some of these advantages are having a modular structure, easy-guaranteed stability, less sensitivity to the eigenvalue spread of the input autocorrelation matrix, and easy quantization of filter coefficients (normally called reflection coefficients). We then characterize the performance of the stochastic gradient lattice algorithm for the frequency modulated signals through the optimal and adaptive lattice reflection coefficients. This is a difficult task due to the nonlinear dependence of the adaptive reflection coefficients on the preceding stages and the input signal. To ease the derivations, we assume that reflection coefficients of each stage are independent of the inputs to that stage. Then the optimal lattice filter is derived for the frequency modulated signals. This is performed by computing the optimal values of residual errors, reflection coefficients, and recovery errors. Next, we show the tracking behaviour of adaptive reflection coefficients for frequency modulated signals. This is carried out by computing the tracking model of these coefficients for the stochastic gradient lattice algorithm in average. The second-order convergence of the adaptive coefficients is investigated by modeling the theoretical asymptotic variance of the gradient noise at each stage. The accuracy of the analytical results is verified by computer simulations. Using the previous analytical results, we show a new property, the polynomial order reducing property of adaptive lattice filters. This property may be used to reduce the order of the polynomial phase of input frequency modulated signals. Considering two examples, we show how this property may be used in processing frequency modulated signals. In the first example, a detection procedure in carried out on a frequency modulated signal with a second-order polynomial phase in complex Gaussian white noise. We showed that using this technique a better probability of detection is obtained for the reduced-order phase signals compared to that of the traditional energy detector. Also, it is empirically shown that the distribution of the gradient noise in the first adaptive reflection coefficients approximates the Gaussian law. In the second example, the instantaneous frequency of the same observed signal is estimated. We show that by using this technique a lower mean square error is achieved for the estimated frequencies at high signal-to-noise ratios in comparison to that of the adaptive line enhancer. The performance of adaptive lattice filters is then investigated for the second type of input signals, i.e., impulsive autoregressive processes with alpha-stable distributions . The concept of alpha-stable distributions is first introduced. We discuss that the stochastic gradient algorithm which performs desirable results for finite variance input signals (like frequency modulated signals in noise) does not perform a fast convergence for infinite variance stable processes (due to using the minimum mean-square error criterion). To deal with such problems, the concept of minimum dispersion criterion, fractional lower order moments, and recently-developed algorithms for stable processes are introduced. We then study the possibility of using the lattice structure for impulsive stable processes. Accordingly, two new algorithms including the least-mean P-norm lattice algorithm and its normalized version are proposed for lattice filters based on the fractional lower order moments. Simulation results show that using the proposed algorithms, faster convergence speeds are achieved for parameters estimation of autoregressive stable processes with low to moderate degrees of impulsiveness in comparison to many other algorithms. Also, we discuss the effect of impulsiveness of stable processes on generating some misalignment between the estimated parameters and the true values. Due to the infinite variance of stable processes, the performance of the proposed algorithms is only investigated using extensive computer simulations.

Shear behaviour and design of LiteSteel beams

OneSteel Australian Tube Mills has recently developed a new hollow flange channel cold-formed section, known as the LiteSteel Beam (LSB). The innovative LSB sections have the beneficial characteristics of torsionally rigid closed rectangular flanges combined with economical fabrication processes from a single strip of high strength steel. They combine the stability of hot-rolled steel sections with the high strength to weight ratio of conventional cold-formed steel sections. The LSB sections are commonly used as flexural members in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. In order to ensure safe and efficient designs of LSBs, many research studies have been undertaken on the flexural behaviour of LSBs. However, no research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour of LSBs. Therefore this thesis investigated the ultimate shear strength behaviour of LSBs with and without web openings including their elastic buckling and post-buckling characteristics using both experimental and finite element analyses, and developed accurate shear design rules. Currently the elastic shear buckling coefficients of web panels are determined by assuming conservatively that the web panels are simply supported at the junction between the web and flange elements. Therefore finite element analyses were conducted first to investigate the elastic shear buckling behaviour of LSBs to determine the true support condition at the junction between their web and flange elements. An equation for the higher elastic shear buckling coefficient of LSBs was developed and included in the shear capacity equations in the cold-formed steel structures code, AS/NZS 4600. Predicted shear capacities from the modified equations and the available experimental results demonstrated the improvements to the shear capacities of LSBs due to the presence of higher level of fixity at the LSB flange to web juncture. A detailed study into the shear flow distribution of LSB was also undertaken prior to the elastic buckling analysis study. The experimental study of ten LSB sections included 42 shear tests of LSBs with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 that were loaded at midspan until failure. Both single and back to back LSB arrangements were used. Test specimens were chosen such that all three types of shear failure (shear yielding, inelastic and elastic shear buckling) occurred in the tests. Experimental results showed that the current cold-formed steel design rules are very conservative for the shear design of LSBs. Significant improvements to web shear buckling occurred due to the presence of rectangular hollow flanges while considerable post-buckling strength was also observed. Experimental results were presented and compared with corresponding predictions from the current design rules. Appropriate improvements have been proposed for the shear strength of LSBs based on AISI (2007) design equations and test results. Suitable design rules were also developed under the direct strength method (DSM) format. This thesis also includes the shear test results of cold-formed lipped channel beams from LaBoube and Yu (1978a), and the new design rules developed based on them using the same approach used with LSBs. Finite element models of LSBs in shear were also developed to investigate the ultimate shear strength behaviour of LSBs including their elastic and post-buckling characteristics. They were validated by comparing their results with experimental test results. Details of the finite element models of LSBs, the nonlinear analysis results and their comparisons with experimental results are presented in this thesis. Finite element analysis results showed that the current cold-formed steel design rules are very conservative for the shear design of LSBs. They also confirmed other experimental findings relating to elastic and post-buckling shear strength of LSBs. A detailed parametric study based on validated experimental finite element model was undertaken to develop an extensive shear strength data base and was then used to confirm the accuracy of the new shear strength equations proposed in this thesis. Experimental and numerical studies were also undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour of LSBs with web openings. Twenty six shear tests were first undertaken using a three point loading arrangement. It was found that AS/NZS 4600 and Shan et al.'s (1997) design equations are conservative for the shear design of LSBs with web openings while McMahon et al.'s (2008) design equation are unconservative. Experimental finite element models of LSBs with web openings were then developed and validated by comparing their results with experimental test results. The developed nonlinear finite element model was found to predict the shear capacity of LSBs with web opening with very good accuracy. Improved design equations have been proposed for the shear capacity of LSBs with web openings based on both experimental and FEA parametric study results. This thesis presents the details of experimental and numerical studies of the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs with and without web openings and the results including the developed accurate design rules.

Flexural behaviour and design of the new built-up LiteSteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills. The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using a combined cold-forming and electric resistance welding process. OneSteel Australian Tube Mills is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in a range of applications, such as floor bearers. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity and thus extend their applications further. However, the structural behaviour of built-up beams is not well understood. Many steel design codes include guidelines for connecting two channels to form a built-up I-section including the required longitudinal spacing of connections. But these rules were found to be inadequate in some applications. Currently the safe spans of builtup beams are determined based on twice the moment capacity of a single section. Research has shown that these guidelines are conservative. Therefore large scale lateral buckling tests and advanced numerical analyses were undertaken to investigate the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs connected by fasteners (bolts) at various longitudinal spacings under uniform moment conditions. In this research an experimental investigation was first undertaken to study the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs including its buckling characteristics. This experimental study included tensile coupon tests, initial geometric imperfection measurements and lateral buckling tests. The initial geometric imperfection measurements taken on several back to back LSB specimens showed that the back to back bolting process is not likely to alter the imperfections, and the measured imperfections are well below the fabrication tolerance limits. Twelve large scale lateral buckling tests were conducted to investigate the behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs with various longitudinal fastener spacings under uniform moment conditions. Tests also included two single LSB specimens. Test results showed that the back to back LSBs gave higher moment capacities in comparison with single LSBs, and the fastener spacing influenced the ultimate moment capacities. As the fastener spacing was reduced the ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs increased. Finite element models of back to back LSBs with varying fastener spacings were then developed to conduct a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs. Two finite element models were developed, namely experimental and ideal finite element models. The models included the complex contact behaviour between LSB web elements and intermittently fastened bolted connections along the web elements. They were validated by comparing their results with experimental results and numerical results obtained from an established buckling analysis program called THIN-WALL. These comparisons showed that the developed models could accurately predict both the elastic lateral distortional buckling moments and the non-linear ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs. Therefore the ideal finite element models incorporating ideal simply supported boundary conditions and uniform moment conditions were used in a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back LSB members. In the detailed parametric study, both elastic buckling and nonlinear analyses of back to back LSBs were conducted for 13 LSB sections with varying spans and fastener spacings. Finite element analysis results confirmed that the current design rules in AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) are very conservative while the new design rules developed by Anapayan and Mahendran (2009a) for single LSB members were also found to be conservative. Thus new member capacity design rules were developed for back to back LSB members as a function of non-dimensional member slenderness. New empirical equations were also developed to aid in the calculation of elastic lateral distortional buckling moments of intermittently fastened back to back LSBs. Design guidelines were developed for the maximum fastener spacing of back to back LSBs in order to optimise the use of fasteners. A closer fastener spacing of span/6 was recommended for intermediate spans and some long spans where the influence of fastener spacing was found to be high. In the last phase of this research, a detailed investigation was conducted to investigate the potential use of different types of connections and stiffeners in improving the flexural strength of back to back LSB members. It was found that using transverse web stiffeners was the most cost-effective and simple strengthening method. It is recommended that web stiffeners are used at the supports and every third points within the span, and their thickness is in the range of 3 to 5 mm depending on the size of LSB section. The use of web stiffeners eliminated most of the lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improved the ultimate moment capacities. A suitable design equation was developed to calculate the elastic lateral buckling moments of back to back LSBs with the above recommended web stiffener configuration while the same design rules developed for unstiffened back to back LSBs were recommended to calculate the ultimate moment capacities.

Flexural behaviour and design of hollow flange steel beams

The LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new hollow flange channel section developed by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills using a patented Dual Electric Resistance Welding technique. The LSB has a unique geometry consisting of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a relatively slender web. It is commonly used as rafters, floor joists and bearers and roof beams in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. It is on average 40% lighter than traditional hot-rolled steel beams of equivalent performance. The LSB flexural members are subjected to a relatively new Lateral Distortional Buckling mode, which reduces the member moment capacity. Unlike the commonly observed lateral torsional buckling of steel beams, lateral distortional buckling of LSBs is characterised by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist and web distortion. Current member moment capacity design rules for lateral distortional buckling in AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) do not include the effect of section geometry of hollow flange beams although its effect is considered to be important. Therefore detailed experimental and finite element analyses (FEA) were carried out to investigate the lateral distortional buckling behaviour of LSBs including the effect of section geometry. The results showed that the current design rules in AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) are over-conservative in the inelastic lateral buckling region. New improved design rules were therefore developed for LSBs based on both FEA and experimental results. A geometrical parameter (K) defined as the ratio of the flange torsional rigidity to the major axis flexural rigidity of the web (GJf/EIxweb) was identified as the critical parameter affecting the lateral distortional buckling of hollow flange beams. The effect of section geometry was then included in the new design rules using the new parameter (K). The new design rule developed by including this parameter was found to be accurate in calculating the member moment capacities of not only LSBs, but also other types of hollow flange steel beams such as Hollow Flange Beams (HFBs), Monosymmetric Hollow Flange Beams (MHFBs) and Rectangular Hollow Flange Beams (RHFBs). The inelastic reserve bending capacity of LSBs has not been investigated yet although the section moment capacity tests of LSBs in the past revealed that inelastic reserve bending capacity is present in LSBs. However, the Australian and American cold-formed steel design codes limit them to the first yield moment. Therefore both experimental and FEA were carried out to investigate the section moment capacity behaviour of LSBs. A comparison of the section moment capacity results from FEA, experiments and current cold-formed steel design codes showed that compact and non-compact LSB sections classified based on AS 4100 (SA, 1998) have some inelastic reserve capacity while slender LSBs do not have any inelastic reserve capacity beyond their first yield moment. It was found that Shifferaw and Schafer’s (2008) proposed equations and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 (ECS, 2006) design equations can be used to include the inelastic bending capacities of compact and non-compact LSBs in design. As a simple design approach, the section moment capacity of compact LSB sections can be taken as 1.10 times their first yield moment while it is the first yield moment for non-compact sections. For slender LSB sections, current cold-formed steel codes can be used to predict their section moment capacities. It was believed that the use of transverse web stiffeners could improve the lateral distortional buckling moment capacities of LSBs. However, currently there are no design equations to predict the elastic lateral distortional buckling and member moment capacities of LSBs with web stiffeners under uniform moment conditions. Therefore, a detailed study was conducted using FEA to simulate both experimental and ideal conditions of LSB flexural members. It was shown that the use of 3 to 5 mm steel plate stiffeners welded or screwed to the inner faces of the top and bottom flanges of LSBs at third span points and supports provided an optimum web stiffener arrangement. Suitable design rules were developed to calculate the improved elastic buckling and ultimate moment capacities of LSBs with these optimum web stiffeners. A design rule using the geometrical parameter K was also developed to improve the accuracy of ultimate moment capacity predictions. This thesis presents the details and results of the experimental and numerical studies of the section and member moment capacities of LSBs conducted in this research. It includes the recommendations made regarding the accuracy of current design rules as well as the new design rules for lateral distortional buckling. The new design rules include the effects of section geometry of hollow flange steel beams. This thesis also developed a method of using web stiffeners to reduce the lateral distortional buckling effects, and associated design rules to calculate the improved moment capacities.

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Swept frequency biompedance analysis for the determination of body water compartments

Bioelectrical impedance analysis, (BIA), is a method of body composition analysis first investigated in 1962 which has recently received much attention by a number of research groups. The reasons for this recent interest are its advantages, (viz: inexpensive, non-invasive and portable) and also the increasing interest in the diagnostic value of body composition analysis. The concept utilised by BIA to predict body water volumes is the proportional relationship for a simple cylindrical conductor, (volume oc length2/resistance), which allows the volume to be predicted from the measured resistance and length. Most of the research to date has measured the body's resistance to the passage of a 50· kHz AC current to predict total body water, (TBW). Several research groups have investigated the application of AC currents at lower frequencies, (eg 5 kHz), to predict extracellular water, (ECW). However all research to date using BIA to predict body water volumes has used the impedance measured at a discrete frequency or frequencies. This thesis investigates the variation of impedance and phase of biological systems over a range of frequencies and describes the development of a swept frequency bioimpedance meter which measures impedance and phase at 496 frequencies ranging from 4 kHz to 1 MHz. The impedance of any biological system varies with the frequency of the applied current. The graph of reactance vs resistance yields a circular arc with the resistance decreasing with increasing frequency and reactance increasing from zero to a maximum then decreasing to zero. Computer programs were written to analyse the measured impedance spectrum and determine the impedance, Zc, at the characteristic frequency, (the frequency at which the reactance is a maximum). The fitted locus of the measured data was extrapolated to determine the resistance, Ro, at zero frequency; a value that cannot be measured directly using surface electrodes. The explanation of the theoretical basis for selecting these impedance values (Zc and Ro), to predict TBW and ECW is presented. Studies were conducted on a group of normal healthy animals, (n=42), in which TBW and ECW were determined by the gold standard of isotope dilution. The prediction quotients L2/Zc and L2/Ro, (L=length), yielded standard errors of 4.2% and 3.2% respectively, and were found to be significantly better than previously reported, empirically determined prediction quotients derived from measurements at a single frequency. The prediction equations established in this group of normal healthy animals were applied to a group of animals with abnormally low fluid levels, (n=20), and also to a group with an abnormal balance of extra-cellular to intracellular fluids, (n=20). In both cases the equations using L2/Zc and L2/Ro accurately and precisely predicted TBW and ECW. This demonstrated that the technique developed using multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis, (MFBIA), can accurately predict both TBW and ECW in both normal and abnormal animals, (with standard errors of the estimate of 6% and 3% for TBW and ECW respectively). Isotope dilution techniques were used to determine TBW and ECW in a group of 60 healthy human subjects, (male. and female, aged between 18 and 45). Whole body impedance measurements were recorded on each subject using the MFBIA technique and the correlations between body water volumes, (TBW and ECW), and heighe/impedance, (for all measured frequencies), were compared. The prediction quotients H2/Zc and H2/Ro, (H=height), again yielded the highest correlation with TBW and ECW respectively with corresponding standard errors of 5.2% and 10%. The values of the correlation coefficients obtained in this study were very similar to those recently reported by others. It was also observed that in healthy human subjects the impedance measured at virtually any frequency yielded correlations not significantly different from those obtained from the MFBIA quotients. This phenomenon has been reported by other research groups and emphasises the need to validate the technique by investigating its application in one or more groups with abnormalities in fluid levels. The clinical application of MFBIA was trialled and its capability of detecting lymphoedema, (an excess of extracellular fluid), was investigated. The MFBIA technique was demonstrated to be significantly more sensitive, (P<.05), in detecting lymphoedema than the current technique of circumferential measurements. MFBIA was also shown to provide valuable information describing the changes in the quantity of muscle mass of the patient during the course of the treatment. The determination of body composition, (viz TBW and ECW), by MFBIA has been shown to be a significant improvement on previous bioelectrical impedance techniques. The merit of the MFBIA technique is evidenced in its accurate, precise and valid application in animal groups with a wide variation in body fluid volumes and balances. The multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis technique developed in this study provides accurate and precise estimates of body composition, (viz TBW and ECW), regardless of the individual's state of health.

Basin analysis and economic geology of the Northern Mount Isa Basin

The Mount Isa Basin is a new concept used to describe the area of Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic rocks south of the Murphy Inlier and inappropriately described presently as the Mount Isa Inlier. The new basin concept presented in this thesis allows for the characterisation of basin-wide structural deformation, correlation of mineralisation with particular lithostratigraphic and seismic stratigraphic packages, and the recognition of areas with petroleum exploration potential. The northern depositional margin of the Mount Isa Basin is the metamorphic, intrusive and volcanic complex here referred to as the Murphy Inlier (not the "Murphy Tectonic Ridge"). The eastern, southern and western boundaries of the basin are obscured by younger basins (Carpentaria, Eromanga and Georgina Basins). The Murphy Inlier rocks comprise the seismic basement to the Mount Isa Basin sequence. Evidence for the continuity of the Mount Isa Basin with the McArthur Basin to the northwest and the Willyama Block (Basin) at Broken Hill to the south is presented. These areas combined with several other areas of similar age are believed to have comprised the Carpentarian Superbasin (new term). The application of seismic exploration within Authority to Prospect (ATP) 423P at the northern margin of the basin was critical to the recognition and definition of the Mount Isa Basin. The Mount Isa Basin is structurally analogous to the Palaeozoic Arkoma Basin of Illinois and Arkansas in southern USA but, as with all basins it contains unique characteristics, a function of its individual development history. The Mount Isa Basin evolved in a manner similar to many well described, Phanerozoic plate tectonic driven basins. A full Wilson Cycle is recognised and a plate tectonic model proposed. The northern Mount Isa Basin is defined as the Proterozoic basin area northwest of the Mount Gordon Fault. Deposition in the northern Mount Isa Basin began with a rift sequence of volcaniclastic sediments followed by a passive margin drift phase comprising mostly carbonate rocks. Following the rift and drift phases, major north-south compression produced east-west thrusting in the south of the basin inverting the older sequences. This compression produced an asymmetric epi- or intra-cratonic clastic dominated peripheral foreland basin provenanced in the south and thinning markedly to a stable platform area (the Murphy Inlier) in the north. The fmal major deformation comprised east-west compression producing north-south aligned faults that are particularly prominent at Mount Isa. Potential field studies of the northern Mount Isa Basin, principally using magnetic data (and to a lesser extent gravity data, satellite images and aerial photographs) exhibit remarkable correlation with the reflection seismic data. The potential field data contributed significantly to the unravelling of the northern Mount Isa Basin architecture and deformation. Structurally, the Mount Isa Basin consists of three distinct regions. From the north to the south they are the Bowthorn Block, the Riversleigh Fold Zone and the Cloncurry Orogen (new names). The Bowthom Block, which is located between the Elizabeth Creek Thrust Zone and the Murphy Inlier, consists of an asymmetric wedge of volcanic, carbonate and clastic rocks. It ranges from over 10 000 m stratigraphic thickness in the south to less than 2000 min the north. The Bowthorn Block is relatively undeformed: however, it contains a series of reverse faults trending east-west that are interpreted from seismic data to be down-to-the-north normal faults that have been reactivated as thrusts. The Riversleigh Fold Zone is a folded and faulted region south of the Bowthorn Block, comprising much of the area formerly referred to as the Lawn Hill Platform. The Cloncurry Orogen consists of the area and sequences equivalent to the former Mount Isa Orogen. The name Cloncurry Orogen clearly distinguishes this area from the wider concept of the Mount Isa Basin. The South Nicholson Group and its probable correlatives, the Pilpah Sandstone and Quamby Conglomerate, comprise a later phase of now largely eroded deposits within the Mount Isa Basin. The name South Nicholson Basin is now outmoded as this terminology only applied to the South Nicholson Group unlike the original broader definition in Brown et al. (1968). Cored slimhole stratigraphic and mineral wells drilled by Amoco, Esso, Elf Aquitaine and Carpentaria Exploration prior to 1986, penetrated much of the stratigraphy and intersected both minor oil and gas shows plus excellent potential source rocks. The raw data were reinterpreted and augmented with seismic stratigraphy and source rock data from resampled mineral and petroleum stratigraphic exploration wells for this study. Since 1986, Comalco Aluminium Limited, as operator of a joint venture with Monument Resources Australia Limited and Bridge Oil Limited, recorded approximately 1000 km of reflection seismic data within the basin and drilled one conventional stratigraphic petroleum well, Beamesbrook-1. This work was the first reflection seismic and first conventional petroleum test of the northern Mount Isa Basin. When incorporated into the newly developed foreland basin and maturity models, a grass roots petroleum exploration play was recognised and this led to the present thesis. The Mount Isa Basin was seen to contain excellent source rocks coupled with potential reservoirs and all of the other essential aspects of a conventional petroleum exploration play. This play, although high risk, was commensurate with the enormous and totally untested petroleum potential of the basin. The basin was assessed for hydrocarbons in 1992 with three conventional exploration wells, Desert Creek-1, Argyle Creek-1 and Egilabria-1. These wells also tested and confrrmed the proposed basin model. No commercially viable oil or gas was encountered although evidence of its former existence was found. In addition to the petroleum exploration, indeed as a consequence of it, the association of the extensive base metal and other mineralisation in the Mount Isa Basin with hydrocarbons could not be overlooked. A comprehensive analysis of the available data suggests a link between the migration and possible generation or destruction of hydrocarbons and metal bearing fluids. Consequently, base metal exploration based on hydrocarbon exploration concepts is probably. the most effective technique in such basins. The metal-hydrocarbon-sedimentary basin-plate tectonic association (analogous to Phanerozoic models) is a compelling outcome of this work on the Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic Mount lsa Basin. Petroleum within the Bowthom Block was apparently destroyed by hot brines that produced many ore deposits elsewhere in the basin.

Are you a mindful driver? A review of the potential explanatory value of mindfulness in predicting speeding behaviour

Mindfulness is a concept which has been widely used in studies on consciousness, but has recently been applied to the understanding of behaviours in other areas, including clinical psychology, meditation, physical activity, education and business. It has been suggested that mindfulness can also be applied to road safety, though this has not yet been researched. A standard definition of mindfulness is “paying attention in a particular way, on purpose in the present moment and non-judgemental to the unfolding of experience moment by moment” [1]. Scales have been developed to measure mindfulness; however, there are different views in the literature on the nature of the mindfulness construct. This paper reviews the issues raised in the literature and arrives at an operational definition of mindfulness considered relevant to road safety. It is further proposed that mindfulness is best construed as operating together with other psychosocial factors to influence road safety behaviours. The specific case of speeding behaviour is outlined, where the psychosocial variables in the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) have been demonstrated to predict both intention to speed and actual speeding behaviour. A role is proposed for mindfulness in enhancing the explanatory and predictive powers of the TPB concerning speeding. The implications of mindfulness for speeding countermeasures are discussed and a program of future research is outlined.