241 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting


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For the analysis of material nonlinearity, an effective shear modulus approach based on the strain control method is proposed in this paper by using point collocation method. Hencky’s total deformation theory is used to evaluate the effective shear modulus, Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which are treated as spatial field variables. These effective properties are obtained by the strain controlled projection method in an iterative manner. To evaluate the second order derivatives of shape function at the field point, the radial basis function (RBF) in the local support domain is used. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method and comparisons have been made with analytical solutions and the finite element method (ABAQUS).

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Purpose - Thermo-magnetic convection and heat transfer of paramagnetic fluid placed in a micro-gravity condition (g = 0) and under a uniform vertical gradient magnetic field in an open square cavity with three cold sidewalls have been studied numerically. Design/methodology/approach - This magnetic force is proportional to the magnetic susceptibility and the gradient of the square of the magnetic induction. The magnetic susceptibility is inversely proportional to the absolute temperature based on Curie’s law. Thermal convection of a paramagnetic fluid can therefore take place even in zero-gravity environment as a direct consequence of temperature differences occurring within the fluid due to a constant internal heat generation placed within a magnetic field gradient. Findings - Effects of magnetic Rayleigh number, Ra, Prandtl number, Pr, and paramagnetic fluid parameter, m, on the flow pattern and isotherms as well as on the heat absorption are presented graphically. It is found that the heat transfer rate is suppressed in increased of the magnetic Rayleigh number and the paramagnetic fluid parameter for the present investigation. Originality/value - It is possible to control the buoyancy force by using the super conducting magnet. To the best knowledge of the author no literature related to magnetic convection for this configuration is available.

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This thesis presents the outcomes of a comprehensive research study undertaken to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The knowledge created is expected to contribute to a greater understanding of urban stormwater quality and thereby enhance the design of stormwater quality treatment systems. The research study was undertaken based on selected urban catchments in Gold Coast, Australia. The research methodology included field investigations, laboratory testing, computer modelling and data analysis. Both univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques were used to investigate the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. The rainfall characteristics investigated included average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration whilst catchment characteristics included land use, impervious area percentage, urban form and pervious area location. The catchment scale data for the analysis was obtained from four residential catchments, including rainfall-runoff records, drainage network data, stormwater quality data and land use and land cover data. Pollutants build-up samples were collected from twelve road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land use areas. The relationships between rainfall characteristics, catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality were investigated based on residential catchments and then extended to other land uses. Based on the influence rainfall characteristics exert on urban stormwater quality, rainfall events can be classified into three different types, namely, high average intensity-short duration (Type 1), high average intensity-long duration (Type 2) and low average intensity-long duration (Type 3). This provides an innovative approach to conventional modelling which does not commonly relate stormwater quality to rainfall characteristics. Additionally, it was found that the threshold intensity for pollutant wash-off from urban catchments is much less than for rural catchments. High average intensity-short duration rainfall events are cumulatively responsible for the generation of a major fraction of the annual pollutants load compared to the other rainfall event types. Additionally, rainfall events less than 1 year ARI such as 6- month ARI should be considered for treatment design as they generate a significant fraction of the annual runoff volume and by implication a significant fraction of the pollutants load. This implies that stormwater treatment designs based on larger rainfall events would not be feasible in the context of cost-effectiveness, efficiency in treatment performance and possible savings in land area needed. This also suggests that the simulation of long-term continuous rainfall events for stormwater treatment design may not be needed and that event based simulations would be adequate. The investigations into the relationship between catchment characteristics and urban stormwater quality found that other than conventional catchment characteristics such as land use and impervious area percentage, other catchment characteristics such as urban form and pervious area location also play important roles in influencing urban stormwater quality. These outcomes point to the fact that the conventional modelling approach in the design of stormwater quality treatment systems which is commonly based on land use and impervious area percentage would be inadequate. It was also noted that the small uniformly urbanised areas within a larger mixed catchment produce relatively lower variations in stormwater quality and as expected lower runoff volume with the opposite being the case for large mixed use urbanised catchments. Therefore, a decentralised approach to water quality treatment would be more effective rather than an "end-of-pipe" approach. The investigation of pollutants build-up on different land uses showed that pollutant build-up characteristics vary even within the same land use. Therefore, the conventional approach in stormwater quality modelling, which is based solely on land use, may prove to be inappropriate. Industrial land use has relatively higher variability in maximum pollutant build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution than the other two land uses. However, commercial and residential land uses had relatively higher variations of nutrients and organic carbon build-up. Additionally, it was found that particle size distribution had a relatively higher variability for all three land uses compared to the other build-up parameters. The high variability in particle size distribution for all land uses illustrate the dissimilarities associated with the fine and coarse particle size fractions even within the same land use and hence the variations in stormwater quality in relation to pollutants adsorbing to different sizes of particles.

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Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

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Several studies of the surface effect on bending properties of a nanowire (NW) have been conducted. However, these analyses are mainly based on theoretical predictions, and there is seldom integration study in combination between theoretical predictions and simulation results. Thus, based on the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and different modified beam theories, a comprehensive theoretical and numerical study for bending properties of nanowires considering surface/intrinsic stress effects and axial extension effect is conducted in this work. The discussion begins from the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and Timoshenko beam theory augmented with surface effect. It is found that when the NW possesses a relatively small cross-sectional size, these two theories cannot accurately interpret the true surface effect. The incorporation of axial extension effect into Euler-Bernoulli beam theory provides a nonlinear solution that agrees with the nonlinear-elastic experimental and MD results. However, it is still found inaccurate when the NW cross-sectional size is relatively small. Such inaccuracy is also observed for the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory augmented with both contributions from surface effect and axial extension effect. A comprehensive model for completely considering influences from surface stress, intrinsic stress, and axial extension is then proposed, which leads to good agreement with MD simulation results. It is thus concluded that, for NWs with a relatively small cross-sectional size, a simple consideration of surface stress effect is inappropriate, and a comprehensive consideration of the intrinsic stress effect is required.

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Effective digital human model (DHM) simulation of automotive driver packaging ergonomics, safety and comfort depends on accurate modelling of occupant posture, which is strongly related to the mechanical interaction between human body soft tissue and flexible seat components. This paper comprises: a study investigating the component mechanical behaviour of a spring-suspended, production level seat when indented by SAE J826 type, human thigh-buttock representing hard shell; a model of seated human buttock shape for improved indenter design using a multivariate representation of Australian population thigh-buttock anthropometry; and a finite-element study simulating the deflection of human buttock and thigh soft tissue when seated, based on seated MRI. The results of the three studies provide a description of the mechanical properties of the driver-seat interface, and allow validation of future dynamic simulations, involving multi-body and finite-element (FE) DHM in virtual ergonomic studies.

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Unsteady natural convection inside a triangular cavity has been studied in this study. The cavity is filled with a saturated porous medium with non-isothermal left inclined wall while the bottom surface is isothermally heated and the right inclined surface is isothermally cooled. An internal heat generation is also considered which is dependent on the fluid temperature. The governing equations are solved numerically by finite volume method. The Prandtl number, Pr of the fluid is considered as 0.7 (air) while the aspect ratio and the Rayleigh number, Ra are considered as 0.5 and 105 respectively. The effect of heat generation on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been presented as a form of streamlines and isotherms. The rate of heat transfer through three surfaces of the enclosure is also presented.

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Based on the molecular dynamics (MD) method, the single-crystalline copper nanowire with different surface defects is investigated through tension simulation. For comparison, the MD tension simulations of perfect nanowire are firstly carried out under different temperatures, strain rates, and sizes. It has concluded that the surface-volume ratio significantly affects the mechanical properties of nanowire. The surface defects on nanowires are then systematically studied in considering different defect orientation and distribution. It is found that the Young’s modulus is insensitive of surface defects. However, the yield strength and yield point show a significant decrease due to the different defects. Different defects are observed to serve as a dislocation source.

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In this study, magnetohydrodynamic natural convection boundary layer flow of an electrically conducting and viscous incompressible fluid along a heated vertical flat plate with uniform heat and mass flux in the presence of strong cross magnetic field has been investigated. For smooth integrations the boundary layer equations are transformed in to a convenient dimensionless form by using stream function formulation as well as the free variable formulation. The nonsimilar parabolic partial differential equations are integrated numerically for Pr ≪1 that is appropriate for liquid metals against the local Hartmann parameter ξ . Further, asymptotic solutions are obtained near the leading edge using regular perturbation method for smaller values of ξ . Solutions for values of ξ ≫ 1 are also obtained by employing the matched asymptotic technique. The results obtained for small, large and all ξ regimes are examined in terms of shear stress, τw, rate of heat transfer, qw, and rate of mass transfer, mw, for important physical parameter. Attention has been given to the influence of Schmidt number, Sc, buoyancy ratio parameter, N and local Hartmann parameter, ξ on velocity, temperature and concentration distributions and noted that velocity and temperature of the fluid achieve their asymptotic profiles for Sc ≥ 10:0.

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A Cooperative Collision Warning System (CCWS) is an active safety techno- logy for road vehicles that can potentially reduce traffic accidents. It provides a driver with situational awareness and early warnings of any possible colli- sions through an on-board unit. CCWS is still under active research, and one of the important technical problems is safety message dissemination. Safety messages are disseminated in a high-speed mobile environment using wireless communication technology such as Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC). The wireless communication in CCWS has a limited bandwidth and can become unreliable when used inefficiently, particularly given the dynamic nature of road traffic conditions. Unreliable communication may significantly reduce the performance of CCWS in preventing collisions. There are two types of safety messages: Routine Safety Messages (RSMs) and Event Safety Messages (ESMs). An RSM contains the up-to-date state of a vehicle, and it must be disseminated repeatedly to its neighbouring vehicles. An ESM is a warning message that must be sent to all the endangered vehi- cles. Existing RSM and ESM dissemination schemes are inefficient, unscalable, and unable to give priority to vehicles in the most danger. Thus, this study investigates more efficient and scalable RSM and ESM dissemination schemes that can make use of the context information generated from a particular traffic scenario. Therefore, this study tackles three technical research prob- lems, vehicular traffic scenario modelling and context information generation, context-aware RSM dissemination, and context-aware ESM dissemination. The most relevant context information in CCWS is the information about possible collisions among vehicles given a current vehicular traffic situation. To generate the context information, this study investigates techniques to model interactions among multiple vehicles based on their up-to-date motion state obtained via RSM. To date, there is no existing model that can represent interactions among multiple vehicles in a speciffic region and at a particular time. The major outcome from the first problem is a new interaction graph model that can be used to easily identify the endangered vehicles and their danger severity. By identifying the endangered vehicles, RSM and ESM dis- semination can be optimised while improving safety at the same time. The new model enables the development of context-aware RSM and ESM dissemination schemes. To disseminate RSM efficiently, this study investigates a context-aware dis- semination scheme that can optimise the RSM dissemination rate to improve safety in various vehicle densities. The major outcome from the second problem is a context-aware RSM dissemination protocol. The context-aware protocol can adaptively adjust the dissemination rate based on an estimated channel load and danger severity of vehicle interactions given by the interaction graph model. Unlike existing RSM dissemination schemes, the proposed adaptive scheme can reduce channel congestion and improve safety by prioritising ve- hicles that are most likely to crash with other vehicles. The proposed RSM protocol has been implemented and evaluated by simulation. The simulation results have shown that the proposed RSM protocol outperforms existing pro- tocols in terms of efficiency, scalability and safety. To disseminate ESM efficiently, this study investigates a context-aware ESM dissemination scheme that can reduce unnecessary transmissions and deliver ESMs to endangered vehicles as fast as possible. The major outcome from the third problem is a context-aware ESM dissemination protocol that uses a multicast routing strategy. Existing ESM protocols use broadcast rout- ing, which is not efficient because ESMs may be sent to a large number of ve- hicles in the area. Using multicast routing improves efficiency because ESMs are sent only to the endangered vehicles. The endangered vehicles can be identified using the interaction graph model. The proposed ESM protocol has been implemented and evaluated by simulation. The simulation results have shown that the proposed ESM protocol can prevent potential accidents from occurring better than existing ESM protocols. The context model and the RSM and ESM dissemination protocols can be implemented in any CCWS development to improve the communication and safety performance of CCWS. In effect, the outcomes contribute to the realisation of CCWS that will ultimately improve road safety and save lives.

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Identifying, modelling and documenting business processes usually requires the collaboration of many stakeholders that may be spread across companies in inter-organizational business settings. While there are many process modelling tools available, the support they provide for remote collaboration is still limited. This paper investigates the application of virtual environment and augmented reality technologies to remote business process modelling, with an aim to assisting common collaboration tasks by providing an increased sense of immersion in a shared workspace. We report on the evaluation of a prototype system with five key informants. The results indicate that this approach to business process modelling is suited to remote collaborative task settings, and stakeholders may indeed benefit from using augmented reality interfaces.

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Based on the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and the classical Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, a fundamental study of the vibrational performance of the Ag nanowire (NW) is carried out. A comprehensive analysis of the quality (Q)-factor, natural frequency, beat vibration, as well as high vibration mode is presented. Two excitation approaches, i.e., velocity excitation and displacement excitation, have been successfully implemented to achieve the vibration of NWs. Upon these two kinds of excitations, consistent results are obtained, i.e., the increase of the initial excitation amplitude will lead to a decrease to the Q-factor, and moderate plastic deformation could increase the first natural frequency. Meanwhile, the beat vibration driven by a single relatively large excitation or two uniform excitations in both two lateral directions is observed. It is concluded that the nonlinear changing trend of external energy magnitude does not necessarily mean a nonconstant Q-factor. In particular, the first order natural frequency of the Ag NW is observed to decrease with the increase of temperature. Furthermore, comparing with the predictions by Euler- Bernoulli beam theory, the MD simulation provides a larger and smaller first vibration frequencies for the clamped-clamped and clamped-free thin Ag NWs, respectively. Additionally, for thin NWs, the first order natural frequency exhibits a parabolic relationship with the excitation magnitudes. The frequencies of the higher vibration modes tend to be low in comparison to Euler-Bernoulli beam theory predictions. A combined initial excitation is proposed which is capable to drive the NW under a multi-mode vibration and arrows the coexistence of all the following low vibration modes. This work sheds lights on the better understanding of the mechanical properties of NWs and benefits the increasing utilities of NWs in diverse nano-electronic devices.

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The goal of this research project is to develop specific BIM objects for temporary construction activities which are fully integrated with object design, construction efficiency and safety parameters. Specifically, the project will deliver modularised electronic scaffolding and formwork objects that will allow designers to easily incorporate them into BIM models to facilitate smarter and safer infrastructure and building construction. This research first identified there is currently a distinct lack of BIM objects for temporary construction works resulting in productivity loss during design and construction, and opportunities for improved consideration of safety standards and practices with the design of scaffolding and formwork. This is particularly relevant in Australia, given the “harmonisation” of OHS legislation across all states and territories from 1 January 2012, meaning that enhancements to Queensland practices will have direct application across Australia. Thus, in conjunction with government and industry partners in Queensland, Australia, the research team developed a strategic three-phase research methodology: (1) the preliminary review phase on industrial scaffolding and formwork practices and BIM implementation; (2) the BIM object development phase with specific safety and productivity functions; and (3) the Queensland-wide workshop phase for product dissemination and training. This paper discusses background review findings, details of the developed methodology, and expected research outcomes and their contributions to the Australian construction industry.

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Institutions represent the ‘technologies of the social.’ They are increasingly modelled and transported to other cultures and societies, and criminal justice institutions—traditional, parochial, and local as they are—are no exception to this. Problems of crime and insecurity have engendered the travelling of institutions from the centre to the periphery and vice versa. This paper will explore the problems which arise from travelling and modelling, and from the transport and creation of institutions in the area of criminal justice. An important feature in the travel of criminal justice institutions is the use of ‘local knowledge’ and its role in this process.

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With many important developments over the last century, nowadays orthopedic bone plate now excels over other types of internal fixators in bone fracture fixation. The developments involve the design, material and implementation techniques of the plates. This paper aims to review the evolution in implementation technique and biomaterial of the orthopedic bone plates. Plates were initially used to fix the underlying bones firmly. Accordingly, Compression plate (CP), Dynamic compression plate (DCP), Limited contact dynamic compression plate (LC-DCP) and Point contact fixator (PC-Fix) were developed. Later, the implementation approach was changed to locking, and the Less Invasive Stabilization System (LISS) plate was introduced as a result. Finally, a combination of both of these approaches has been used by introducing the Locking Compression Plate (LCP). Currently, precontoured LCPs are mainly used for bone fracture fixation. In parallel with structure and implementation techniques, numerous advances have occurred in biomaterials of the plates. Titanium and stainless steel alloys are now the most common biomaterials in production of orthopedic bone plates. However, regarding the biocompatibility, bioactivity and biodegradability characteristics of Mg alloys, Ta alloys, SMAs, carbon fiber composites and bioceramics, these materials are considered as potentially suitable for plates. However, due to poor mechanical properties, they have very limited applications. Therefore, further studies are required in future to solve these problems and make them feasible for heavy-duty bone plates.