Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

Visual motion estimation for an autonomous underwater reef monitoring robot

Performing reliable localisation and navigation within highly unstructured underwater coral reef environments is a difficult task at the best of times. Typical research and commercial underwater vehicles use expensive acoustic positioning and sonar systems which require significant external infrastructure to operate effectively. This paper is focused on the development of a robust vision-based motion estimation technique using low-cost sensors for performing real-time autonomous and untethered environmental monitoring tasks in the Great Barrier Reef without the use of acoustic positioning. The technique is experimentally shown to provide accurate odometry and terrain profile information suitable for input into the vehicle controller to perform a range of environmental monitoring tasks.

Visual motion estimation for an autonomous underwater reef monitoring robot

Performing reliable localisation and navigation within highly unstructured underwater coral reef environments is a difficult task at the best of times. Typical research and commercial underwater vehicles use expensive acoustic positioning and sonar systems which require significant external infrastructure to operate effectively. This paper is focused on the development of a robust vision-based motion estimation technique using low-cost sensors for performing real-time autonomous and untethered environmental monitoring tasks in the Great Barrier Reef without the use of acoustic positioning. The technique is experimentally shown to provide accurate odometry and terrain profile information suitable for input into the vehicle controller to perform a range of environmental monitoring tasks.

Adaptive instantaneous frequency estimation: Techniques and algorithms

This thesis deals with the problem of the instantaneous frequency (IF) estimation of sinusoidal signals. This topic plays significant role in signal processing and communications. Depending on the type of the signal, two major approaches are considered. For IF estimation of single-tone or digitally-modulated sinusoidal signals (like frequency shift keying signals) the approach of digital phase-locked loops (DPLLs) is considered, and this is Part-I of this thesis. For FM signals the approach of time-frequency analysis is considered, and this is Part-II of the thesis. In part-I we have utilized sinusoidal DPLLs with non-uniform sampling scheme as this type is widely used in communication systems. The digital tanlock loop (DTL) has introduced significant advantages over other existing DPLLs. In the last 10 years many efforts have been made to improve DTL performance. However, this loop and all of its modifications utilizes Hilbert transformer (HT) to produce a signal-independent 90-degree phase-shifted version of the input signal. Hilbert transformer can be realized approximately using a finite impulse response (FIR) digital filter. This realization introduces further complexity in the loop in addition to approximations and frequency limitations on the input signal. We have tried to avoid practical difficulties associated with the conventional tanlock scheme while keeping its advantages. A time-delay is utilized in the tanlock scheme of DTL to produce a signal-dependent phase shift. This gave rise to the time-delay digital tanlock loop (TDTL). Fixed point theorems are used to analyze the behavior of the new loop. As such TDTL combines the two major approaches in DPLLs: the non-linear approach of sinusoidal DPLL based on fixed point analysis, and the linear tanlock approach based on the arctan phase detection. TDTL preserves the main advantages of the DTL despite its reduced structure. An application of TDTL in FSK demodulation is also considered. This idea of replacing HT by a time-delay may be of interest in other signal processing systems. Hence we have analyzed and compared the behaviors of the HT and the time-delay in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. Based on the above analysis, the behavior of the first and second-order TDTLs has been analyzed in additive Gaussian noise. Since DPLLs need time for locking, they are normally not efficient in tracking the continuously changing frequencies of non-stationary signals, i.e. signals with time-varying spectra. Nonstationary signals are of importance in synthetic and real life applications. An example is the frequency-modulated (FM) signals widely used in communication systems. Part-II of this thesis is dedicated for the IF estimation of non-stationary signals. For such signals the classical spectral techniques break down, due to the time-varying nature of their spectra, and more advanced techniques should be utilized. For the purpose of instantaneous frequency estimation of non-stationary signals there are two major approaches: parametric and non-parametric. We chose the non-parametric approach which is based on time-frequency analysis. This approach is computationally less expensive and more effective in dealing with multicomponent signals, which are the main aim of this part of the thesis. A time-frequency distribution (TFD) of a signal is a two-dimensional transformation of the signal to the time-frequency domain. Multicomponent signals can be identified by multiple energy peaks in the time-frequency domain. Many real life and synthetic signals are of multicomponent nature and there is little in the literature concerning IF estimation of such signals. This is why we have concentrated on multicomponent signals in Part-H. An adaptive algorithm for IF estimation using the quadratic time-frequency distributions has been analyzed. A class of time-frequency distributions that are more suitable for this purpose has been proposed. The kernels of this class are time-only or one-dimensional, rather than the time-lag (two-dimensional) kernels. Hence this class has been named as the T -class. If the parameters of these TFDs are properly chosen, they are more efficient than the existing fixed-kernel TFDs in terms of resolution (energy concentration around the IF) and artifacts reduction. The T-distributions has been used in the IF adaptive algorithm and proved to be efficient in tracking rapidly changing frequencies. They also enables direct amplitude estimation for the components of a multicomponent

Some novel techniques of parameter estimation for the dynamical models in biological systems

Inverse problems based on using experimental data to estimate unknown parameters of a system often arise in biological and chaotic systems. In this paper, we consider parameter estimation in systems biology involving linear and non-linear complex dynamical models, including the Michaelis–Menten enzyme kinetic system, a dynamical model of competence induction in Bacillus subtilis bacteria and a model of feedback bypass in B. subtilis bacteria. We propose some novel techniques for inverse problems. Firstly, we establish an approximation of a non-linear differential algebraic equation that corresponds to the given biological systems. Secondly, we use the Picard contraction mapping, collage methods and numerical integration techniques to convert the parameter estimation into a minimization problem of the parameters. We propose two optimization techniques: a grid approximation method and a modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization (MH-NMSS-PSO) for non-linear parameter estimation. The two techniques are used for parameter estimation in a model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria with noisy data. The MH-NMSS-PSO scheme is applied to a dynamical model of competence induction in B. subtilis bacteria based on experimental data and the model for feedback bypass. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Parameter estimation for a phenomenological model of the cardiac action potential

The action potential (ap) of a cardiac cell is made up of a complex balance of ionic currents which flow across the cell membrane in response to electrical excitation of the cell. Biophysically detailed mathematical models of the ap have grown larger in terms of the variables and parameters required to model new findings in subcellular ionic mechanisms. The fitting of parameters to such models has seen a large degree of parameter and module re-use from earlier models. An alternative method for modelling electrically exciteable cardiac tissue is a phenomenological model, which reconstructs tissue level ap wave behaviour without subcellular details. A new parameter estimation technique to fit the morphology of the ap in a four variable phenomenological model is presented. An approximation of a nonlinear ordinary differential equation model is established that corresponds to the given phenomenological model of the cardiac ap. The parameter estimation problem is converted into a minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. A modified hybrid Nelder–Mead simplex search and particle swarm optimization is then used to solve the minimisation problem for the unknown parameters. The successful fitting of data generated from a well known biophysically detailed model is demonstrated. A successful fit to an experimental ap recording that contains both noise and experimental artefacts is also produced. The parameter estimation method’s ability to fit a complex morphology to a model with substantially more parameters than previously used is established.

Performance control of distributed generation using digital estimation of signal parameters

The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) allows the presentation of a thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the format of published or submitted papers, where such papers have been published, accepted or submitted during the period of candidature. This thesis is composed of seven published/submitted papers, of which one has been published, three accepted for publication and the other three are under review. This project is financially supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Grant with the aim of proposing strategies for the performance control of Distributed Generation (DG) system with digital estimation of power system signal parameters. Distributed Generation (DG) has been recently introduced as a new concept for the generation of power and the enhancement of conventionally produced electricity. Global warming issue calls for renewable energy resources in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cell and micro turbine will gain substantial momentum in the near future. Technically, DG can be a viable solution for the issue of the integration of renewable or non-conventional energy resources. Basically, DG sources can be connected to local power system through power electronic devices, i.e. inverters or ac-ac converters. The interconnection of DG systems to power system as a compensator or a power source with high quality performance is the main aim of this study. Source and load unbalance, load non-linearity, interharmonic distortion, supply voltage distortion, distortion at the point of common coupling in weak source cases, source current power factor, and synchronism of generated currents or voltages are the issues of concern. The interconnection of DG sources shall be carried out by using power electronics switching devices that inject high frequency components rather than the desired current. Also, noise and harmonic distortions can impact the performance of the control strategies. To be able to mitigate the negative effect of high frequency and harmonic as well as noise distortion to achieve satisfactory performance of DG systems, new methods of signal parameter estimation have been proposed in this thesis. These methods are based on processing the digital samples of power system signals. Thus, proposing advanced techniques for the digital estimation of signal parameters and methods for the generation of DG reference currents using the estimates provided is the targeted scope of this thesis. An introduction to this research – including a description of the research problem, the literature review and an account of the research progress linking the research papers – is presented in Chapter 1. One of the main parameters of a power system signal is its frequency. Phasor Measurement (PM) technique is one of the renowned and advanced techniques used for the estimation of power system frequency. Chapter 2 focuses on an in-depth analysis conducted on the PM technique to reveal its strengths and drawbacks. The analysis will be followed by a new technique proposed to enhance the speed of the PM technique while the input signal is free of even-order harmonics. The other techniques proposed in this thesis as the novel ones will be compared with the PM technique comprehensively studied in Chapter 2. An algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering is proposed in Chapter 3. The algorithm is intended to estimate signal parameters like amplitude, frequency and phase angle in the online mode. The Kalman filter is modified to operate on the output signal of a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter designed by a plain summation. The frequency estimation unit is independent from the Kalman filter and uses the samples refined by the FIR filter. The frequency estimated is given to the Kalman filter to be used in building the transition matrices. The initial settings for the modified Kalman filter are obtained through a trial and error exercise. Another algorithm again based on the concept of Kalman filtering is proposed in Chapter 4 for the estimation of signal parameters. The Kalman filter is also modified to operate on the output signal of the same FIR filter explained above. Nevertheless, the frequency estimation unit, unlike the one proposed in Chapter 3, is not segregated and it interacts with the Kalman filter. The frequency estimated is given to the Kalman filter and other parameters such as the amplitudes and phase angles estimated by the Kalman filter is taken to the frequency estimation unit. Chapter 5 proposes another algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering. This time, the state parameters are obtained through matrix arrangements where the noise level is reduced on the sample vector. The purified state vector is used to obtain a new measurement vector for a basic Kalman filter applied. The Kalman filter used has similar structure to a basic Kalman filter except the initial settings are computed through an extensive math-work with regards to the matrix arrangement utilized. Chapter 6 proposes another algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering similar to that of Chapter 3. However, this time the initial settings required for the better performance of the modified Kalman filter are calculated instead of being guessed by trial and error exercises. The simulations results for the parameters of signal estimated are enhanced due to the correct settings applied. Moreover, an enhanced Least Error Square (LES) technique is proposed to take on the estimation when a critical transient is detected in the input signal. In fact, some large, sudden changes in the parameters of the signal at these critical transients are not very well tracked by Kalman filtering. However, the proposed LES technique is found to be much faster in tracking these changes. Therefore, an appropriate combination of the LES and modified Kalman filtering is proposed in Chapter 6. Also, this time the ability of the proposed algorithm is verified on the real data obtained from a prototype test object. Chapter 7 proposes the other algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering similar to those of Chapter 3 and 6. However, this time an optimal digital filter is designed instead of the simple summation FIR filter. New initial settings for the modified Kalman filter are calculated based on the coefficients of the digital filter applied. Also, the ability of the proposed algorithm is verified on the real data obtained from a prototype test object. Chapter 8 uses the estimation algorithm proposed in Chapter 7 for the interconnection scheme of a DG to power network. Robust estimates of the signal amplitudes and phase angles obtained by the estimation approach are used in the reference generation of the compensation scheme. Several simulation tests provided in this chapter show that the proposed scheme can very well handle the source and load unbalance, load non-linearity, interharmonic distortion, supply voltage distortion, and synchronism of generated currents or voltages. The purposed compensation scheme also prevents distortion in voltage at the point of common coupling in weak source cases, balances the source currents, and makes the supply side power factor a desired value.

Inherent errors in pollutant build-up estimation in considering urban land use as a lumped parameter

Stormwater quality modelling results is subject to uncertainty. The variability of input parameters is an important source of overall model error. An in-depth understanding of the variability associated with input parameters can provide knowledge on the uncertainty associated with these parameters and consequently assist in uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality models and the decision making based on modelling outcomes. This paper discusses the outcomes of a research study undertaken to analyse the variability related to pollutant build-up parameters in stormwater quality modelling. The study was based on the analysis of pollutant build-up samples collected from 12 road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary appreciably even within the same land use. Therefore, using land use as a lumped parameter would contribute significant uncertainties in stormwater quality modelling. Additionally, it was also found that the variability in pollutant build-up can also be significant depending on the pollutant type. This underlines the importance of taking into account specific land use characteristics and targeted pollutant species when undertaking uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality models or in interpreting the modelling outcomes.

A framework for life cycle cost estimation of a product family at the early stage of product development

A cost estimation method is required to estimate the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development in order to evaluate the product family design. There are difficulties with existing cost estimation techniques in estimating the life cycle cost for a product family at the early stage of product development. This paper proposes a framework that combines a knowledge based system and an activity based costing techniques in estimating the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development. The inputs of the framework are the product family structure and its sub function. The output of the framework is the life cycle cost of a product family that consists of all costs at each product family level and the costs of each product life cycle stage. The proposed framework provides a life cycle cost estimation tool for a product family at the early stage of product development using high level information as its input. The framework makes it possible to estimate the life cycle cost of various product family that use any types of product structure. It provides detailed information related to the activity and resource costs of both parts and products that can assist the designer in analyzing the cost of the product family design. In addition, it can reduce the required amount of information and time to construct the cost estimation system.

Algorithm for queue estimation with loop detector of time occupancy in off-ramps on signalized motorways

Long traffic queues on off-ramps significantly compromise the safety and throughput of motorways. Obtaining accurate queue information is crucial for countermeasure strategies. However, it is challenging to estimate traffic queues with locally installed inductive loop detectors. This paper deals with the problem of queue estimation with the interpretation of queuing dynamics and the corresponding time-occupancy distribution over motorway off-ramps. A novel algorithm for real-time queue estimation with two detectors is presented and discussed. Results derived from microscopic traffic simulation validated the effectiveness of the algorithm and revealed some of its useful features: (a) long and intermediate traffic queues could be accurately measured, (b) relatively simple detector input (i.e., time occupancy) was required, and (c) the estimation philosophy was independent with signal timing changes and provided the potential to cooperate with advanced strategies for signal control. Some issues concerning field implementation are also discussed.

Traffic queue estimation for metered motorway on-ramps through use of loop detector time occupancies

The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust queue estimation algorithm for motorway on-ramps. Real-time queue information is a vital input for dynamic queue management on metered on-ramps. Accurate and reliable queue information enables the management of on-ramp queue in an adaptive manner to the actual traffic queue size and thus minimises the adverse impacts of queue flush while increasing the benefit of ramp metering. The proposed algorithm is developed based on the Kalman filter framework. The fundamental conservation model is used to estimate the system state (queue size) with the flow-in and flow-out measurements. This projection results are updated with the measurement equation using the time occupancies from mid-link and link-entrance loop detectors. This study also proposes a novel single point correction method. This method resets the estimated system state to eliminate the counting errors that accumulate over time. In the performance evaluation, the proposed algorithm demonstrated accurate and reliable performances and consistently outperformed the benchmarked Single Occupancy Kalman filter (SOKF) method. The improvements over SOKF are 62% and 63% in average in terms of the estimation accuracy (MAE) and reliability (RMSE), respectively. The benefit of the innovative concepts of the algorithm is well justified by the improved estimation performance in congested ramp traffic conditions where long queues may significantly compromise the benchmark algorithm’s performance.

A Kalman filter based queue estimation algorithm using time occupancies for motorway on-ramps

The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust queue estimation algorithm for motorway on-ramps. Real-time queue information is the most vital input for a dynamic queue management that can treat long queues on metered on-ramps more sophistically. The proposed algorithm is developed based on the Kalman filter framework. The fundamental conservation model is used to estimate the system state (queue size) with the flow-in and flow-out measurements. This projection results are updated with the measurement equation using the time occupancies from mid-link and link-entrance loop detectors. This study also proposes a novel single point correction method. This method resets the estimated system state to eliminate the counting errors that accumulate over time. In the performance evaluation, the proposed algorithm demonstrated accurate and reliable performances and consistently outperformed the benchmarked Single Occupancy Kalman filter (SOKF) method. The improvements over SOKF are 62% and 63% in average in terms of the estimation accuracy (MAE) and reliability (RMSE), respectively. The benefit of the innovative concepts of the algorithm is well justified by the improved estimation performance in the congested ramp traffic conditions where long queues may significantly compromise the benchmark algorithm’s performance.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Traversability estimation for a planetary rover via experimental kernel learning in a Gaussian process framework

A critical requirement for safe autonomous navigation of a planetary rover is the ability to accurately estimate the traversability of the terrain. This work considers the problem of predicting the attitude and configuration angles of the platform from terrain representations that are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Using Gaussian Processes (GP) and exteroceptive data as training input, we can provide a continuous and complete representation of terrain traversability, with uncertainty in the output estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel method that focuses on exploiting the explicit correlation in vehicle attitude and configuration during operation by learning a kernel function from vehicle experience to perform GP regression. We provide an extensive experimental validation of the proposed method on a planetary rover. We show significant improvement in the accuracy of our estimation compared with results obtained using standard kernels (Squared Exponential and Neural Network), and compared to traversability estimation made over terrain models built using state-of-the-art GP techniques.

Estimation of biodiesel properties from chemical composition – An artificial neural network (ANN) approach

Biodiesel, produced from renewable feedstock represents a more sustainable source of energy and will therefore play a significant role in providing the energy requirements for transportation in the near future. Chemically, all biodiesels are fatty acid methyl esters (FAME), produced from raw vegetable oil and animal fat. However, clear differences in chemical structure are apparent from one feedstock to the next in terms of chain length, degree of unsaturation, number of double bonds and double bond configuration-which all determine the fuel properties of biodiesel. In this study, prediction models were developed to estimate kinematic viscosity of biodiesel using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling technique. While developing the model, 27 parameters based on chemical composition commonly found in biodiesel were used as the input variables and kinematic viscosity of biodiesel was used as output variable. Necessary data to develop and simulate the network were collected from more than 120 published peer reviewed papers. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture and learning algorithm were optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found high predictive accuracy of the ANN in predicting fuel properties of biodiesel and has demonstrated the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool to accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.