Combining initial segments of lists

We propose a new way to build a combined list from K base lists, each containing N items. A combined list consists of top segments of various sizes from each base list so that the total size of all top segments equals N. A sequence of item requests is processed and the goal is to minimize the total number of misses. That is, we seek to build a combined list that contains all the frequently requested items. We first consider the special case of disjoint base lists. There, we design an efficient algorithm that computes the best combined list for a given sequence of requests. In addition, we develop a randomized online algorithm whose expected number of misses is close to that of the best combined list chosen in hindsight. We prove lower bounds that show that the expected number of misses of our randomized algorithm is close to the optimum. In the presence of duplicate items, we show that computing the best combined list is NP-hard. We show that our algorithms still apply to a linearized notion of loss in this case. We expect that this new way of aggregating lists will find many ranking applications.

Relative entropy rate based multiple hidden Markov Model Approximation

This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.

Predicting loss and fragmentation of habitat of the vulnerable subtropical rainforest tree Macadamia integrifolia with models developed from compiled ecological data

Habitat models are widely used in ecology, however there are relatively few studies of rare species, primarily because of a paucity of survey records and lack of robust means of assessing accuracy of modelled spatial predictions. We investigated the potential of compiled ecological data in developing habitat models for Macadamia integrifolia, a vulnerable mid-stratum tree endemic to lowland subtropical rainforests of southeast Queensland, Australia. We compared performance of two binomial models—Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Generalised Additive Models (GAM)—with Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models developed from (i) presence records and available absence data and (ii) developed using presence records and background data. The GAM model was the best performer across the range of evaluation measures employed, however all models were assessed as potentially useful for informing in situ conservation of M. integrifolia, A significant loss in the amount of M. integrifolia habitat has occurred (p < 0.05), with only 37% of former habitat (pre-clearing) remaining in 2003. Remnant patches are significantly smaller, have larger edge-to-area ratios and are more isolated from each other compared to pre-clearing configurations (p < 0.05). Whilst the network of suitable habitat patches is still largely intact, there are numerous smaller patches that are more isolated in the contemporary landscape compared with their connectedness before clearing. These results suggest that in situ conservation of M. integrifolia may be best achieved through a landscape approach that considers the relative contribution of small remnant habitat fragments to the species as a whole, as facilitating connectivity among the entire network of habitat patches.

Low fat loss response after medium-term supervised exercise in obese is associated with exercise-induced increase in food reward

Objective: To examine exercise-induced changes in the reward value of food during medium-term supervised exercise in obese individuals. ---------- Subjects/Methods: The study was a 12-week supervised exercise intervention prescribed to expend 500 kcal/day, 5 d/week. 34 sedentary obese males and females were identified as responders (R) or non-responders (NR) to the intervention according to changes in body composition relative to measured energy expended during exercise. Food reward (ratings of liking and wanting, and relative preference by forced choice pairs) for an array of food images was assessed before and after an acute exercise bout. ---------- Results. 20 responders and 14 non-responders were identified. R lost 5.2 kg±2.4 of total fat mass and NR lost 1.7 kg±1.4. After acute exercise, liking for all foods increased in NR compared to no change in R. Furthermore, NR showed an increase in wanting and relative preference for high-fat sweet foods. These differences were independent of 12-weeks regular exercise and weight loss. ---------- Conclusion. Individuals who showed an immediate post-exercise increase in liking and increased wanting and preference for high-fat sweet foods displayed a smaller reduction in fat mass with exercise. For some individuals, exercise increases the reward value of food and diminishes the impact of exercise on fat loss.

Convexity, Classification, and Risk Bounds

Many of the classification algorithms developed in the machine learning literature, including the support vector machine and boosting, can be viewed as minimum contrast methods that minimize a convex surrogate of the 0–1 loss function. The convexity makes these algorithms computationally efficient. The use of a surrogate, however, has statistical consequences that must be balanced against the computational virtues of convexity. To study these issues, we provide a general quantitative relationship between the risk as assessed using the 0–1 loss and the risk as assessed using any nonnegative surrogate loss function. We show that this relationship gives nontrivial upper bounds on excess risk under the weakest possible condition on the loss function—that it satisfies a pointwise form of Fisher consistency for classification. The relationship is based on a simple variational transformation of the loss function that is easy to compute in many applications. We also present a refined version of this result in the case of low noise, and show that in this case, strictly convex loss functions lead to faster rates of convergence of the risk than would be implied by standard uniform convergence arguments. Finally, we present applications of our results to the estimation of convergence rates in function classes that are scaled convex hulls of a finite-dimensional base class, with a variety of commonly used loss functions.

Optimal strategies and minimax lower bounds for online convex games

A number of learning problems can be cast as an Online Convex Game: on each round, a learner makes a prediction x from a convex set, the environment plays a loss function f, and the learner’s long-term goal is to minimize regret. Algorithms have been proposed by Zinkevich, when f is assumed to be convex, and Hazan et al., when f is assumed to be strongly convex, that have provably low regret. We consider these two settings and analyze such games from a minimax perspective, proving minimax strategies and lower bounds in each case. These results prove that the existing algorithms are essentially optimal.

Does metabolic compensation explain the majority of less-than-expected weight loss in obese adults during a short-term severe diet and exercise intervention?

Objective: We investigated to what extent changes in metabolic rate and composition of weight loss explained the less-than-expected weight loss in obese men and women during a diet-plus-exercise intervention. Design: 16 obese men and women (41 ± 9 years; BMI 39 ± 6 kg/m2) were investigated in energy balance before, after and twice during a 12-week VLED (565–650 kcal/day) plus exercise (aerobic plus resistance training) intervention. The relative energy deficit (EDef) from baseline requirements was severe (74-87%). Body composition was measured by deuterium dilution and DXA and resting metabolic rate (RMR) by indirect calorimetry. Fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were converted into energy equivalents using constants: 9.45 kcal/gFM and 1.13 kcal/gFFM. Predicted weight loss was calculated from the energy deficit using the '7700 kcal/kg rule'. Results: Changes in weight (-18.6 ± 5.0 kg), FM (-15.5 ± 4.3 kg), and FFM (-3.1 ± 1.9 kg) did not differ between genders. Measured weight loss was on average 67% of the predicted value, but ranged from 39 to 94%. Relative EDef was correlated with the decrease in RMR (R=0.70, P<0.01) and the decrease in RMR correlated with the difference between actual and expected weight loss (R=0.51, P<0.01). Changes in metabolic rate explained on average 67% of the less-than-expected weight loss, and variability in the proportion of weight lost as FM accounted for a further 5%. On average, after adjustment for changes in metabolic rate and body composition of weight lost, actual weight loss reached 90% of predicted values. Conclusion: Although weight loss was 33% lower than predicted at baseline from standard energy equivalents, the majority of this differential was explained by physiological variables. While lower-than-expected weight loss is often attributed to incomplete adherence to prescribed interventions, the influence of baseline calculation errors and metabolic down-regulation should not be discounted.

Filter and control performance bounds in the presence of model uncertainties with aerospace applications

This thesis establishes performance properties for approximate filters and controllers that are designed on the basis of approximate dynamic system representations. These performance properties provide a theoretical justification for the widespread application of approximate filters and controllers in the common situation where system models are not known with complete certainty. This research also provides useful tools for approximate filter designs, which are applied to hybrid filtering of uncertain nonlinear systems. As a contribution towards applications, this thesis also investigates air traffic separation control in the presence of measurement uncertainties.

Depression scores predict adherence in a dietary weight loss intervention trial

Background & aims Depression has a complex association with cardiometabolic risk, both directly as an independent factor and indirectly through mediating effects on other risk factors such as BMI, diet, physical activity, and smoking. Since changes to many cardiometabolic risk factors involve behaviour change, the rise in depression prevalence as a major global health issue may present further challenges to long-term behaviour change to reduce such risk. This study investigated associations between depression scores and participation in a community-based weight management intervention trial. Methods A group of 64 overweight (BMI > 27), otherwise healthy adults, were recruited and randomised to follow either their usual diet, or an isocaloric diet in which saturated fat was replaced with monounsaturated fat (MUFA), to a target of 50% total fat, by adding macadamia nuts to the diet. Subjects were assessed for depressive symptoms at baseline and at ten weeks using the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II). Both control and intervention groups received advice on National Guidelines for Physical Activity and adhered to the same protocol for food diary completion and trial consultations. Anthropometric and clinical measurements (cholesterol, inflammatory mediators) also were taken at baseline and 10 weeks. Results During the recruitment phase, pre-existing diagnosed major depression was one of a range of reasons for initial exclusion of volunteers from the trial. Amongst enrolled participants, there was a significant correlation (R = −0.38, p < 0.05) between BDI-II scores at baseline and duration of participation in the trial. Subjects with a baseline BDI ≥10 (moderate to severe depression symptoms) were more likely to dropout of the trial before week 10 (p < 0.001). BDI-II scores in the intervention (MUFA) diet group decreased, but increased in the control group over the 10-week period. Univariate analysis of variance confirmed these observations (adjusted R2 = 0.257, p = 0.01). Body weight remained static over the 10-week period in the intervention group, corresponding to a relative increase in the control group (adjusted R2 = 0.097, p = 0.064). Conclusions Depression symptoms have the potential to affect enrolment in and adherence to dietbased risk reduction interventions, and may consequently influence the generalisability of such trials. Depression scores may therefore be useful for characterising, screening and allocating subjects to appropriate treatment pathways.

Posttraumatic growth in family members living with a relative diagnosed with schizophrenia

Family members living with a relative diagnosed with schizophrenia have reported challenges and traumatic stressors, as well as perceived benefits and personal growth. This study explored factors associated with posttraumatic growth (PTG) within such families. Personality, stress, coping, social support and PTG were assessed in 110 family members. Results revealed that a multiplicative mediational path model with social support and emotional or instrumental coping strategies as multi-mediators had a significant indirect effect on the relationship between extraversion and PTG. Clinically relevant concepts that map onto the multi-mediator model are discussed, translating these findings into clinical practice to facilitate naturally occurring PTG processes.

Loss of neuronatin expression is associated with promoter hypermethylation in pituitary adenoma

The imprinted gene, neuronatin (NNAT), is one of the most abundant transcripts in the pituitary and is thought to be involved in the development and maturation of this gland. In a recent whole-genome approach, exploiting a pituitary tumour cell line, we identified hypermethylation associated loss of NNAT. In this report, we determined the expression pattern of NNAT in individual cell types of the normal gland and within each of the different pituitary adenoma subtypes. In addition, we determined associations between expression and CpG island methylation and used colony forming efficiency assays (CFE) to gain further insight into the tumour-suppressor function of this gene. Immunohistochemical (IHC) co-localization studies of normal pituitaries showed that each of the hormone secreting cells (GH, PRL, ACTH, FSH and TSH) expressed NNAT. However, 33 out of 47 adenomas comprising, 11 somatotrophinomas, 10 prolactinomas, 12 corticotrophinomas and 14 non-functioning tumours, irrespective of subtype failed to express either NNAT transcript or protein as determined by quantitative real-time RT-PCR and IHC respectively. In normal pituitaries and adenomas that expressed NNAT the promoter-associated CpG island showed characteristics of an imprinted gene where approximately 50% of molecules were densely methylated. However, in the majority of adenomas that showed loss or significantly reduced expression of NNAT, relative to normal pituitaries, the gene-associated CpG island showed significantly increased methylation. Induced expression of NNAT in transfected AtT-20 cells significantly reduced CFE. Collectively, these findings point to an important role for NNAT in the pituitary and perhaps tumour development in this gland.

An analysis of DNA methylation in human adipose tissue reveals differential modification of obesity genes before and after gastric bypass and weight loss

Background Environmental factors can influence obesity by epigenetic mechanisms. Adipose tissue plays a key role in obesity-related metabolic dysfunction, and gastric bypass provides a model to investigate obesity and weight loss in humans. Results Here, we investigate DNA methylation in adipose tissue from obese women before and after gastric bypass and significant weight loss. In total, 485,577 CpG sites were profiled in matched, before and after weight loss, subcutaneous and omental adipose tissue. A paired analysis revealed significant differential methylation in omental and subcutaneous adipose tissue. A greater proportion of CpGs are hypermethylated before weight loss and increased methylation is observed in the 3′ untranslated region and gene bodies relative to promoter regions. Differential methylation is found within genes associated with obesity, epigenetic regulation and development, such as CETP, FOXP2, HDAC4, DNMT3B, KCNQ1 and HOX clusters. We identify robust correlations between changes in methylation and clinical trait, including associations between fasting glucose and HDAC4, SLC37A3 and DENND1C in subcutaneous adipose. Genes investigated with differential promoter methylation all show significantly different levels of mRNA before and after gastric bypass. Conclusions This is the first study reporting global DNA methylation profiling of adipose tissue before and after gastric bypass and associated weight loss. It provides a strong basis for future work and offers additional evidence for the role of DNA methylation of adipose tissue in obesity.

What determines weight loss behaviour and body weight satisfaction in Australia? Evidence from the HILDA survey

This thesis undertakes an empirical investigation to identify factors that influence the decision to undertake weight loss behaviour using the nationally representative HILDA dataset. Although many factors influenced the decision, the findings suggested that body weight satisfaction was the greatest determinant of weight loss dieting. This thesis therefore conducted a further empirical study to analyse the determinants of body weight satisfaction. A rank-hypothesis was found to better predict variation in body weight satisfaction levels than the absolute value of the individual's Body Mass Index (BMI) or the relative-norm hypothesis, which are commonly reported in the literature.

Living well with diabetes: 24-month outcomes from a randomized trial of telephone-delivered weight loss and physical activity intervention to improve glycemic control

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a telephone-delivered behavioral weight loss and physical activity intervention targeting Australian primary care patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Pragmatic randomized controlled trial of telephone counseling (n = 151) versus usual care (n = 151). Reported here are 18-month (end-of-intervention) and 24-month (maintenance) primary outcomes of weight, moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA; via accelerometer), and HbA1c level. Secondary outcomes include dietary energy intake and diet quality, waist circumference, lipid levels, and blood pressure. Data were analyzed via adjusted linear mixed models with multiple imputation of missing data. RESULTS: Relative to usual-care participants, telephone counseling participants achieved modest, but significant, improvements in weight loss (relative rate [RR] -1.42% of baseline body weight [95% CI -2.54 to -0.30% of baseline body weight]), MVPA (RR 1.42 [95% CI 1.06-1.90]), diet quality (2.72 [95% CI 0.55-4.89]), and waist circumference (-1.84 cm [95% CI -3.16 to -0.51 cm]), but not in HbA1c level (RR 0.99 [95% CI 0.96-1.02]), or other cardio-metabolic markers. None of the outcomes showed a significant change/deterioration over the maintenance period. However, only the intervention effect for MVPA remained statistically significant at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: The modest improvements in weight loss and behavior change, but the lack of changes in cardio-metabolic markers, may limit the utility, scalability, and sustainability of such an approach.